Beef Markets Outlook. January Mark Zieg. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture. Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
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1 Beef Markets Outlook January 213 Mark Zieg AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 29
2 Irish Beef Markets Exports 444, Export Volumes by Destination (212) UK 231, Spain 11, France 46, Holland 36, Scandinavia 4, Italy 41, Germany 15, Ireland Export Statistics Year To Date: January October 212 % Change Partner Country 212/211 World United Kingdom France Netherlands Italy Sweden Spain Germany Denmark Belgium Poland Portugal Ghana 84.5 Czech Republic Russia Switzerland Source: Eurostat
3 EU Consumption determined by Economic Situation Consumption: -1.2% in France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group
4 Consumption Outlook Consumption: -1.2% in 212 => -.6% in France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group
5 EU Consumption Outlook Moderating % drop in EU consumption forecast :
6 Import & Export Developments in Main Markets Imports t cwe France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark
7 Import & Export Outlook Imports t cwe France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark
8 EU Trade Balance to 212 cwe Imports Exports
9 Origins EU-27 Imports of beef products cwe Jan-Sep 12 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 11-45kt Brazil % % % % % -.4% -15kt Uruguay % % % % % - 3.7% Argentina -3kt % % % % % - 19.% Australia % % % % % % USA % % % % % -.4% New Zealand % % % % % + 1.2% Namibia % % % % % -.3% Switzerland % % % % % % Chile % % % % % - 1.3% Serbia % 99.2% % 785.2% 427.2% % Botswana % % % 98.3% 474.2% % EXTRA EU 25/ % change + 9% - 12% - 15% - 5.8% Source: Comext
10 EU-27 Exports of beef and live animals cwe Destinations Jan-Sep 12 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 11 Turkey 24.1% 571.2% % % % % Russia % % % % % - 3.% Lebanon % % % % % - 5.9% Croatia % % % % % - 7.3% Sw itzerland % % % % % - 3.5% Algeria % % % % % % Other Destinations % % % % % - 3.9% EXTRA EU 25/ % change - 15% + 95% + 31% % Source: Comext
11 EU Trade Balance Forecast 22 cwe Import Levels to grow toward 4,t Exports slipping back to appprox.1,t 4 3 Imports Exports
12 World Beef Production Overall decrease 425, tonnes / -.2% Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
13 World Beef Production Outlook Total beef production to increase 1% Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
14 Global Beef Exports have Declined Overall decrease 352, tonnes / -.7% Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
15 25 Global Exports to 22 Growth of 2.7% 1,2m tonnes in global exports: Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
16 Global beef Consumption and Imports tonnes (cwe) 8,. Consumption 75,. 7,. 65,. 6,. Growth of >1m tonnes in global Consumption: tonnes (cwe) Imports Growth of 1,6m tonnes in global Imports: Source OECD-FAO
17 Summary Beef Markets Outlook Irish exports constrained in 212 by supplies and price competition in some markets EU consumption down 1.2% in set to decline.8% by 22 Domestic production declines to create opportunities in Fr, It, UK & NL Global beef exports declined by 35 tonnes in the last 3 years but likely to increase again by 22 Strongest international Import growth will be focussed on emerging and developing markets
18 Thank You
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