2018.., 2018.
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- Garry Evans
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1 .., " - " " " -..,..,,,..,,..,,..,..,,, 1
2 2018.., 2018.
3 ,, () «-» «..,.,,,, ; 1. ; 2. ;
4 95, 2, 38.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.. -,..,
5 ,
6
7 ,,,. 2017, 1,51., 1,596.., ,9% ,, 2025, ( 2025)., 2025,.., 100.,, Renault B0, Hyundai Kia GB VAZ ,.,,,,.
8 , ,.,.,......,,. : (3).
9 . : / // / // / // ( ). :,,,,.....
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11 .... [5]., ,, :,,..... [6],, ,... [14],, ; ;.
12 .. [8], ; --;... [9],,, [10] -., [11].... [12],..,
13 ... [13],,,.,,, ё... [14] Toyota Camry...,, [26],... [27], [28],,
14 ..,.., : ( ); ; ; ; (). ё.. [29].,,... [30]... [31] [32]. ё ,,. ё ,
15 ,,,...,.. [33].,,...,... [34] 2016.,.,,.,,...,..,.. [35].,.
16 .. [36]....,..,.. [37], (LCV),. (LCV). Busse M.R., Knittel C.R., Zettelmeyer F. [38],..,. :,,..,. 1.2, ,.,, -,,.
17 , 1768., ( ) , ,. 1791,,,. 16,2 /. -,..,..,, 1838, ,,.
18 , ,.,,..,,,.,,,.,, ,., 1889,..
19 1.3 ё,,,.,.,,,. XIX,,,, ё., :,,,. 5., , ,.,.,..,.,,.,,,
20 ., ,05, 2, ,4 % ,,,, 1,75% ,65%. 2.
21 Toyota Volkswagen Ford Honda Nissan Hyundai Chevrolet Kia Renault Mercedes BMW Peugeot Audi Fiat Mazda Suzuki Changan Jeep Buick Skoda Wuling Opel Subaru Citroen Mitsubishi Baojun Dongfeng Daihatsu Ram GMC Lexus Dacia Dodge Volvo Chery Seat Land Rover Mahindra JAC BYD lada Toyota 5% 8,74. Honda Nissan. Toyota Volkswagen 3%. : Hyundai KIA 9-10 % -. Lada 41.
22 lada kia hyundai renault toyota volkswagen nissan skoda gaz ford uaz mercedes-benz chevrolet bmw mazda datsun mitsubishi lexus lifan audi ravon land rover volvo volkswagen mercedes-benz subaru chery suzuki infinity peugeot ,9% ,, ,,, : 5 22%, 17%. Toyota, Volkswagen. Ravon, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Chery Suzuki. - : Mercedes,
23 Land Rover Porsche 3 8%, Audi 18%. 15%. 2017,, Kia Rio: %.,,, - Rio X-Line. : (93686) (77291). Hyundai Creta: ,,. : (,,, ),,,,,..,. - ( ) ,. -,. Euro NCAP.
24 , , ,, 1. 1,, A 3,6 1,6 B 3,6-3,9 1,5-1,7 C 3,9-4,4 1,6-1,75 D 4,4-4,7 1,7-1,8 E 4,6 1,7 F 4,6 1,7 :,,, D, E, F,,, «,,». 3,6, 1,6.,.,, 3-, 5-., 1, 2-.
25 . 3,9, 1,7.,.. 4,3, 1,8., «-».. - «Volkswagen Golf». «D». 4,6, 1, ,6. 1, 8. «-».,. «F». 5,0.,. "" ""....,,.., «F», ( ),,,, ,,., -.
26 .,.., ,. - "berlina", - "saloon".. hatch-back " "., ()..,....,...,.... (,..).
27 ..,,,.. "", "", "wagon".. «SUV» - Sport utility vehicle ff-road.,.,,.,,. (Jeep),,... BMW 6..,, ()..,,,.., -,,,.,,..., -,,..
28 1.5.4 : ( 8 ). (, ). : : ( 1 ). ( 2 ). ( 2 5 ). ( 5 ). (,, ). :... ( ).. : ()....
29 : ( ()) ( ()). :,,.,,. :... ( )..... :.... : 42,.
30 44,. 64,. 66,.. : 2-x 3-x 4-x. :. (,, ).. : : :.. (,..).
31 1.5.5,,. :, ( 660 3, 3,3, 1,4 ). ( D), : 4,7, 1,7, ().,,,.,. : 500 ( ) ( ) 900-1,2. ( ) 1,2-1,6. ( ) 1,6. ( )
32 % 28% % 11% 38% ,2 1,2-1,6.. 1,6 4,. 900, Hyundai Solaris , :
33 : 7,2; : 4,8; : 5,7. Hyundai Solaris 16- ARCAP. 5 Hyundai Solaris, Solaris, Kia Rio : ; ; ; (ESS, ESC, ABS, VSM, HAC). 1, ,2, 5,7 100.
34 6 - Kia Rio, Datsun mi-do. 1, / / 9/ 5,8 7. Datsun : ; ABS, BAS EBD (, ); ; ;. 7 - Datsun mi-do
35 Renault Duster., :,. : : ; ; ABS + AFU;. Duster,. Authentique Renault Duster Renault Logan,., Logan. Renault Logan : 1,6- ; 5-; ; ABS; ;.
36 9 - Renault Logan Volkswagen Polo Volkswagen Polo : ; ABS; ; 1,6 ;., / Volkswagen Polo
37 Lada Granta 5., ,.,., : 8-1,6 87..; 9 ( 5,8 6,6 ); ; R ,, R15, -,, Lada Granta Lada Vesta., : 1,6, 106..; ;
38 ABS+BAS, EBD, ESC ; Lada Vesta Ford Fiesta, Focus. : 1,6, 85..; ; ABS; ( ); -.,., Ford Fiesta
39 ,.. 2 Kia Rio Hyundai Solaris Renault Duster Datsun mi-do Renault Logan Volkswagen Polo Lada Granta Lada Vesta Ford Fiesta Skoda Rapid Lada Kalina Lada Priora LADA () LADA.
40 LADA,. FIAT , % $1. Renault. Renault-Nissan 74.5% , -, Lada X-Ray Concept Lada Priora, Kalina Granta. Lada Priora 2015,., 80%. Lada Vesta. Priora 2016,. Priora. «., , 1984, Priora 2007»,
41 ., ( 4 4, ).? Lada Priora, Kalina Granta. Kalina,. Kalina Granta Lada Granta.,,. Kalina. 2018, X-., Lada Granta 2018,... «, Vesta X-Ray X-.»,.,. : Lada Granta, Vesta X-Ray, Lada 4 4 Largus. «.»,., Priora Granta,. Granta
42 , Priora, Kalina Granta 10.. Lada Vesta ( ). Lada Granta 28.. Lada Kalina, AE,. «Granta Kalina, Granta»., 12%., ё Lada 14,.,, Lada Vesta 2017 Lada Vesta SW, -,. 14
43 3,. Granta Granta Granta Sport Priora Kalina Kalina Cross Kalina Sport Largus Largus Cross Largus Vesta Vesta SW Vesta SW Cross Vesta CNG XRAY Crossover ,,,., ,,.. -.
44 ,,,.,,,.,.,..,,,.,,..,,.,.,,.,.,,.,
45 ., : ; ; ABS; ; ;. -,,,,.,,,.,, : ; ; ; ; -;,,.,.,,.
46 .,,.,.,,,...,.,,,..,,.,.,,,.,.,,..,.,.
47 ,,,., /,.,,.,,.
48 2 2.1,,,,,,.,.,,,,.,,.,,..,,.,.,,,,,.,,,..,.,,,,,.,..,
49 ,,.,,,.,,.,,.,.,.,..,,,.,., -.,,,,,., -,,...,
50 .,,,,,...,.,,.,., (). (.. ),., - -. «-»,., -,., -,,.,.,.
51 ,.,.,,.,,..,,..,.,, :,,,,,,.,,.,,., Porsche, Audi, Volkswagen KIA, Nissan, Suzuki,. Suzuki, Toyota Honda
52 , Volkswagen Porsche, Jaguar. (, ),,, -..,. ( Land Rover, Jaguar, Porsche, BMW, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo).,.,,,.,,,., Great Wall Haval,,. Wey,,.,,. (,, -,..). [Philips, 1983], «,
53 ,,».,.,,.,,,,..,,,.,, :,,.,. -, ().,,, (,,
54 ).,,,.,.,.,,,,,.,,,.,,,,,.,,,,,,,.,.,,.,,,,,, (),,.
55 Toyota RAV4 Lexus NX200. Lexus, Toyota.. Toyota RAV4,. New MC Platform. Lexus NX RAV4,,,.,.,.,,.. 2.2,,.,. -,.,..
56 .. :,,,., ,,,,,,,.,,,.,.,,..,,,,.,,.,,,.,
57 ,..,,.,., , (AEB)..,.. :,,.,,,,..,, (1979).,.,,,., 4.
58 4,. Lada Granta 600. VW Polo, Hyundai Solaris, Kia Rio Toyota Corolla ,2 VW Jetta, Kia Optima 1,2 1,6 BMW 3 series 1,6 -..,,..,,.,
59 .,..,,.,, -,...,,, ( ),.,...,,..,.,. -,,.
60 , 3,,,,,,,. 2.3,,. ( ),,,.., ( )..,., (, ).
61 -?,.,,., [14]. ( ). (, ),..,.... [13].,,.,.,,,,,,, [7].,
62 .,,.., ,.., 1950-,,. (game theory), -,,.,,,.., ё..,.,.,.
63 , : Coca-Cola company Pepsi-Cola, - Airbus Boeing.,,,,.,.,.,,,,
64 .,,,.,.,,,,,. 16.,, ( ),...,,,,.
65 3 3.1,.. -,.., [16] : ;.. [17], [17]. [18],.
66 [19].,. [19],.. [19]. ( ) [18, 20, 21].,,. [20]. [21],,. [20] [22],. [23], «trade in»..,.,,.,.
67 : ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; - ;. 3.2,.. : Lada ( Lada 4x4), Volkswagen Polo, Skoda Rapid, Hyundai Solaris. : c i x i Cˆ n i1 c i x i, (1) ;. N.. : 5 -., ,.. (1-AT, 0- MT)., /100,, Airbag (0-, 1-, 2-.,3- +.) ( 0-, 1- ) (0-, 1-, 2- ) - ( ) (0-, 1-) 1 Priora , , Granta , ,
68 5 -., ,.. (1-AT, 0- MT)., /100,, Airbag (0-, 1-, 2-.,3- +.) ( 0-, 1- ) (0-, 1-, 2-) - ( ) (0-, 1- ) 3 Granta , , Granta , , Kalina , , Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort , , , K.. C. L k. l k P, x, i. : = n, C + i= c i x i, (2) P,. : 68
69 Lada Priora Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Kalina Lada Kalina Lada Largus rs0y5 Lada Largus fs035 Lada Largus ksoy5 Lada Vesta GFL12 Lada Vesta GFL11 Lada XRAY GAB32 Lada XRAY GAB33 Lada XRAY GAB13 P, P, = i, (3) = P, n, = C i= c i x i i, (4) = K+n ( ). ( ),.,.. : ,. -,.. -,.. 17 Lada., (), Lada Priora 21705, Lada Granta 69
70 21901, 21911, 21917, Lada Kalina 21941, Lada Vesta GFL12., , (), : Lada Largus rs0y5, fs035, ks0y5; Lada XRAY GAB32, GAB33, GAB13.,,.,, Lada Vesta GFL11,. 18 Volkswagen Polo,,,.. : Lada, Volkswagen, Skoda Hyundai ( ),,. 70
71 Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) ,.. -,.. -,.. 18 Volkswagen Polo,, Volkswagen Polo 18, 1,6 (105..),, : Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-; Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-; Polo Trendline (105..) ,,,. Polo Highline 1,6 (110..), 71
72 , ,.. Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6-. Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI ,.. -,.. 19 Skoda Rapid Skoda Rapid Active 1,6 MPI ,,, () (Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6- ; Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI ),..,. 72
73 Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort ,.. -,.. -,.. 20 Hyundai Solaris Hyundai Solaris, c Comfort 1,6 (123..),, 750,., Hyundai Solaris HCR, Kia Rio. 73
74 3.3,., [20]. N,. p, = N, = = N,, (5) [16, 21, 22] p, = expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = i= ), (6) [21]. [24]., [24]: (p, p, ) = i, (7) = expc ap, + i=, c i x i = i, (8) = = exp(c, ap, + c i x i = i= ) N, = = N,,,, 74
75 ,,. 21.,. (, ),.,,,,,,. ( ),. Lada Largus rs0y5. 1,6 (102..) 7,9 100,, Comfort,,, 644,4. 75
76 Lada Priora % Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Kalina Lada Kalina Lada Largus rs0y5 Lada Largus fs035 Lada Largus ksoy5 76 -, %. -, % 21- Lada Vesta GFL12 Lada Vesta GFL11 Lada XRAY GAB32 Lada XRAY GAB33 Lada XRAY GAB13 Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) 6-. Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6-. Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort 123..
77 3.4 [25]..,.,. P,. : )N, = (P, P,, (10) = N(P, P, expc, ap, + i= c i x i ) exp(c, ap, + c i x i = = i= ) ax, (11),.,....,? F = = N(P, P, expc, ap, + i= c i x i ) exp(c, ap, + c i x i = = i= ) ax, (12) : F P, =, (13) : 77
78 F P, = N expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = i= ) i= ) ) s= s ( a(p, P, ) N(P,s P,s ) expc, ap, + i= c i x i expc, ap, + i= c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = = i= ) =, (15),, : F P, = N expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = i= ) i= ) ( a(p, P, ) ) =, (16) : a(p, P, ) expc ap, + = i=, c i x i exp(c, ap, + c i x i = i= ) =, (17) = P, exp(c, = = ap, + c i x i P, = i= ) i= ) a exp(c, ap, + c i x i =, (18)
79 ,,,,., ( ),. 79
80 Lada Priora Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Granta Lada Kalina Lada Kalina Lada Largus rs0y5 Lada Largus fs035 Lada Largus ksoy5 Lada Vesta GFL12 Lada Vesta GFL11 Lada XRAY GAB32 Lada XRAY GAB ,.. -,.. 22 Lada XRAY GAB13 Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) 6-. Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6-. Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort 123..
81 % 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% -150%, %, % 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Priora Granta Granta Granta Kalina Kalina Largus rs0y5 Largus fs035 Largus ksoy5 Vesta GFL12 Vesta GFL11 XRAY GAB32 XRAY GAB33 XRAY GAB13 23 Lada 23 Lada. (,, ). 81
82 24, 25, 26 Volkswagen Polo, Skoda Rapid, Hyundai Solaris. 500%, % 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%, % -200% Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) Volkswagen Polo 500%, % 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%, % -200% Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) Skoda Rapid 82
83 500%, % 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150%, % -200% Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Hyundai Solaris, 27, 28, 29, 30, Lada, Volkswagen Polo, Skoda Rapid, Hyundai Solaris. 0% -50%, %, % 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% -100% -150% -200% -250% Priora Granta Granta Granta Kalina Kalina Largus rs0y5 Largus fs035 Largus ksoy5 Vesta GFL12 Vesta GFL11 XRAY GAB32 XRAY GAB33 XRAY GAB13 27 Lada 83
84 0% -50%, %, % 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% -100% -150% -200% -250% -300% -350% -400% Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) Volkswagen Polo 0% -50%, %, % 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% -100% -150% -200% -250% -300% -350% -400% -450% Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) Skoda Rapid 84
85 0% -100%, %, % 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% -200% -300% -400% -500% -600% Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort Hyundai Solaris.., (). 85
86 1,..,. :,, 50% , :,,.... 3,,.,.. 86
87 , ().,,.,. 87
88 1,..,,..,,.. /.. // /., (04) ,.. /.. //., ,..,..,..,.. //. -, ,.., // , // :, // , // VIII // :
89 // ( 1) // , // // // Toyota Camry,, // VI. 16..,.. - // // Verhoef P. C., Langerak F., Donkers B. Understanding brand and dealer retention in the new car market: The moderating role of brand tier //Journal of retailing
90 19 Abraham R., Zikiye M. W., Harrington C. A Theoretical Model of Competitive Equilibria in the New Car Market //Theoretical Economics Letters Chen Y., Yang S., Zhao Y. A simultaneous model of consumer brand choice and negotiated price //Management science Jaumandreu J., Moral M. The demand for cars: a discrete choice model with income effects. mimeo, p. 22 Nash J. Two-person cooperative games //Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society Koryagin M. New premium cars sales promotion based on the system of pre-owned cars sales to loyal customers //Journal of Applied Engineering Science Koryagin M., Dekina A. Optimization of the road capacity and the public transportation frequency which are based on logit-model of travel mode choice //International Conference on Information Technologies and Mathematical Modelling. Springer, Cham, Glicksberg I. L. A further generalization of the Kakutani fixed theorem, with application to Nash equilibrium points //Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society // // // (53). 90
91 29 ё.. // : (314) // (15) // // (45). 33..,.. :, // : (399) // ,..,.. ё // // (192). 37..,..,.. // (39). 38 Busse M.R., Knittel C.R., Zettelmeyer F. Pain at the Pump: how gasoline prices affect automobile purchasing in new and used markets / Busse M.R., Knittel C.R., Zettelmeyer F. NBER
92 6 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 1 Priora % 55% 0% -35% -57% -72% -81% -88% 2 Granta % 59% 0% -37% -60% -74% -84% -90% 3 Granta % 51% 0% -33% -55% -69% -79% -86% 4 Granta % 64% 0% -38% -61% -76% -85% -90% 5 Kalina % 57% 0% -35% -58% -72% -82% -88% 6 Kalina % 67% 0% -39% -63% -77% -86% -91% 7 Largus rs0y5 237% 83% 0% -45% -70% -83% -91% -95% 8 Largus fs % 61% 0% -37% -61% -75% -84% -90% 9 Largus ksoy5 231% 80% 0% -44% -68% -82% -90% -94% 10 Vesta GFL12 235% 80% 0% -44% -68% -82% -89% -94% 11 Vesta GFL11 194% 70% 0% -41% -65% -79% -87% -92% 12 XRAY GAB32 285% 95% 0% -48% -73% -86% -93% -96% 13 XRAY GAB33 273% 91% 0% -47% -72% -85% -92% -96% 14 XRAY GAB13 212% 76% 0% -43% -67% -81% -89% -94% Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) 6-. Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6-. Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active % 83% 0% -45% -70% -83% -91% -95% 237% 83% 0% -45% -70% -83% -91% -95% 313% 103% 0% -51% -76% -88% -94% -97% 382% 119% 0% -54% -79% -90% -96% -98% 186% 68% 0% -40% -64% -78% -87% -92% 293% 97% 0% -49% -74% -87% -93% -97% 284% 96% 0% -49% -74% -86% -93% -96% 316% 104% 0% -51% -76% -88% -94% -97% 331% 107% 0% -52% -77% -89% -95% -97% 234% 80% 0% -43% -68% -82% -89% -94% 366% 115% 0% -53% -78% -90% -95% -98% 428% 128% 0% -56% -80% -91% -96% -98% 199% 71% 0% -41% -65% -79% -87% -92% 92
93 6 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort % 88% 0% -46% -71% -84% -91% -95% 278% 91% 0% -47% -71% -85% -92% -95% 273% 89% 0% -46% -71% -84% -91% -95% 267% 89% 0% -46% -71% -84% -91% -95% 284% 93% 0% -47% -72% -85% -92% -96% 325% 104% 0% -50% -75% -88% -94% -97% 306% 98% 0% -49% -74% -86% -93% -96% 365% 114% 0% -53% -78% -89% -95% -98% 456% 135% 0% -57% -82% -92% -97% -99% 387% 119% 0% -54% -79% -90% -96% -98% 329% 106% 0% -51% -76% -88% -94% -97% 317% 103% 0% -50% -75% -88% -94% -97% 348% 110% 0% -52% -77% -89% -95% -97% 336% 108% 0% -52% -77% -89% -94% -97% 93
94 7 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 1 Priora % -5% 0% -10% -24% -39% -53% -64% 2 Granta % -10% 0% -9% -25% -41% -56% -67% 3 Granta % -3% 0% -9% -22% -36% -49% -60% 4 Granta % -6% 0% -12% -28% -45% -59% -70% 5 Kalina % -5% 0% -10% -25% -40% -54% -65% 6 Kalina % -10% 0% -11% -29% -46% -60% -71% 7 Largus rs0y5-153% -23% 0% -13% -34% -54% -69% -80% 8 Largus fs035-71% -11% 0% -10% -26% -42% -56% -68% 9 Largus ksoy5-134% -19% 0% -13% -34% -53% -68% -79% 10 Vesta GFL12-118% -15% 0% -14% -34% -53% -67% -78% 11 Vesta GFL11-94% -13% 0% -12% -30% -48% -62% -74% 12 XRAY GAB32-206% -30% 0% -15% -39% -59% -74% -84% 13 XRAY GAB33-184% -26% 0% -15% -38% -58% -72% -83% 14 XRAY GAB13-123% -19% 0% -12% -32% -50% -65% -77% Polo STYLE Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (105..) 6-. Polo Comfortline (110..) 6- Polo Highline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline (105..) 5- Polo Trendline (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 5-. Polo Trendline Allstar (110..) 6-. Polo Trendline Life (110..) 6-. Rapid Active 1,6 MPI Rapid Active 1,6 MPI (110..) 6-. Rapid Ambition 1,6 MPI Solaris 1.4 MT SD Active % -24% 0% -13% -34% -54% -69% -80% -156% -24% 0% -13% -34% -54% -69% -80% -264% -39% 0% -16% -41% -62% -77% -87% -370% -52% 0% -19% -47% -68% -82% -90% -98% -15% 0% -11% -29% -46% -61% -73% -232% -34% 0% -15% -40% -60% -75% -85% -224% -34% 0% -15% -39% -60% -75% -85% -270% -40% 0% -16% -42% -63% -78% -87% -291% -42% 0% -17% -43% -64% -79% -88% -117% -15% 0% -14% -34% -52% -67% -78% -331% -46% 0% -18% -45% -66% -81% -89% -422% -56% 0% -20% -49% -70% -84% -91% -89% -12% 0% -12% -30% -48% -63% -74% 94
95 7 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort Advance 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Active A/C Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort 123. Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Advance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance Solaris 1.6 AT SD Elegance HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Solaris 1.6 AT SD HCR Comfort Advanced Solaris 1.6 AT HB Comfort HTZ Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Adv+Winter Solaris 1.6 AT SD Comfort Special HTZ Solaris 1.6 MT SD HCR Comfort % -22% 0% -15% -37% -56% -71% -81% -166% -21% 0% -15% -38% -57% -72% -82% -149% -18% 0% -16% -37% -57% -71% -81% -164% -22% 0% -15% -37% -57% -71% -82% -176% -23% 0% -16% -38% -58% -73% -83% -248% -34% 0% -17% -42% -62% -77% -86% -211% -28% 0% -16% -40% -60% -75% -85% -321% -44% 0% -18% -45% -66% -80% -89% -487% -64% 0% -21% -51% -72% -85% -93% -360% -49% 0% -19% -46% -68% -82% -90% -277% -39% 0% -17% -42% -64% -78% -87% -257% -37% 0% -16% -41% -62% -77% -86% -301% -42% 0% -18% -44% -65% -79% -88% -288% -41% 0% -17% -43% -64% -79% -88% 95
96 3 i J Ф е д е р а л ьн о е г о с у д а р с т в е н н о е а в т о н о м н о е о б р а з о в а т е л ьн о е у ч р е ж д е н и е в ы с ш е г о о б р а з о в а н и я «С И Б И Р С К И Й Ф Е Д Е Р А Л Ь Н Ы Й У Е В В Е Р С И Т Е Т» П о л и т е х н и ч е с к и й и н с т и т у т и н с т и т у т Т р а н с п о р т к афед р а У Т В Е Р Ж Д А Ю ;/ в е д у (ш щ Л 'К а ф е д р о й ; л я н к и н п 1т е й н о д п и с ь и н и ц и а л ы, ф а м и л и я Г. J М А Г И С Т Е Р С К А Я Д И С С Е Р Т А Ц И Я М о д е л и р о в а н и е у п р а в л е н и я с п р о с о м н а а в т о м о б и л и о т е ч т ем а е с т в е н н ы х б р е н д о в " Эк с п л у а т а ц и я т р а н с п о р т н о - т е х н о л о г и ч е с к и х м а ш и н и к о м п л е к с о в " к о д и н аи м ен о ван и е н ап р авл е н и я " А в т о м о б и л ь н ы й с е р в и с " к о д и н аи м ен о ван и е м аг и с т е р с к о й п р о г р ам м ы Н а у ч н ы й р у к о в о д и т е л ь п о д п и сь, д ат а д о л ж н о с т ь, у ч е н а я с т е п е н ь. н а у к, п р о ф е с с о р М. Е. К о р я г и» и н и ц и а л ы, ф а м и л и я Вы п у с к н и к К. Ю. Б а з ы л е в и н и ц и а л ы, ф а м и л и я Ре ц е н з е н т п о л п и с ь, ла т а / 3 - о с: 2 o f t r. Д - С. Н и к и т е н к о и н и ц и а л ы, ф а м и л и я Нормоконтролер Sr K at l A- т е х, н а у к, д о ц е н т С. В. Х м е л ь н и ц к и й г Год лмсь, д ат а д о л ж н о с т ь, у ч е н а я с т е п е н ь и н и ц и а л ы, ф а м и л и я К р а с н о я р с к
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