Central and Eastern Europe and the Financial Crisis: The Impact on the Banking Sector and the Leasing Market
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1 Central and Eastern Europe and the Financial Crisis: The Impact on the Banking Sector and the Leasing Market Rainer Münz Erste Group Bank, Research & Development LEASEUROPE CESEE Seminar-2010, Budapest, April 23, 2010 page 1 April 23, 2010
2 The key question: Will the CEE region return to growth? page 2 April 23, 2010
3 Catch-up in CEE: In the years before the crisis, income in CEE improved significantly compared to the EU average Slovenia Czech republic Slovakia Estonia GDP per cap in ppp (100 = EU27) Croatia Hungary Lithuania Poland Latvia 2000 additional GDP in 2008 Romania Bulgaria Serbia Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research page 3 April 23, 2010
4 This positive development came to a halt due to the crisis page 4 April 23, 2010
5 Slump in CEE exports page 5 April 23, 2010
6 In 2009 exports collapsed in all countries of the region 30 Change of experts (in % to previous year) AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA page 6 April 23, 2010
7 This translates into reduced contributions of exports to GDP (per capita in nominal terms) Nominal GDP per cap in Euro (the yellow part represents the decline of exports per cap in Euro in 2009 compared to 2008) AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA page 7 April 23, 2010
8 Dry-up of investment inflows within / to CEE page 8 April 23, 2010
9 Investments declined throughout the region. Only in Austria they remained relatively stable % Gross fixed investments in bn Euro -14% -37% -42% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% % -14% -18% -13% -17% -26% -25% -30% -35% -40% 0 AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA % page 9 April 23, 2010
10 in CEE much of this decline is due to reduced inflows of FDI 10.0 Net FDI flows in bn Euro AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA page 10 April 23, 2010
11 National savings now cover a higher share of investments in CEE 140 Gross national savings / investments (in %) AT BG HR CZ HU RO SK SI UA page 11 April 23, 2010
12 Sharp decline of private consumption page 12 April 23, 2010
13 With households saving more, private consumption experienced a major slump in 2009 throughout CEE Change in private consumption (in %) AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA f 2011f page 13 April 23, 2010
14 while some governments decided to increase public consumption 8 Change of government consumption (in %) AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA page 14 April 23, 2010
15 with little impact on GDP, as private consumption outweighs government consumption significantly Proportion of government consumption to private consumption (in %) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% AT BG HR CZ HU RO SR SK SI UA private gov't page 15 April 23, 2010
16 which The global will economy primarilywill be driven return to by strong growth growth in in emerging regions 10 % Annual change of the aggregated GDP, , in % Advanced economies Emerging and developing World economies Central and eastern Europe page 16 April 23, 2010
17 In Europe the forecast for CEE clearly is above EU average Real GDP growth (in %) AT CZ SK HU RO HR SR UA Source: Erste Group Research page 17 April 23, 2010
18 When will the real GDP level of 2008 be reached again? UA DE SP UK AT HU RO RU SK CZ US CN IN PL Source: own calculations on basis of EIU forecast page 18 April 23, 2010
19 What were factors behind the GDP slump? page 19 April 23, 2010
20 Some regions produce and others consume Trade balances, (in bn US$) Europe: 2008: +94 bn$ 2009: -129 bn$ 2010: -180 bn$ CIS: 2008: +189 bn$ 2009: +80 bn$ 2010: +111 bn$ North America: 2008: -684 bn$ 2009: -402 bn$ 2010: -517 bn$ Asia & Pacific: 2008: +357 bn$ 2009: +429 bn$ 2010: +404 bn$ Latin America: 2008: +5 bn$ 2009: -17 bn$ 2010: -41 bn$ Middle East: 2008: +338 bn$ 2009: +162 bn$ 2010: +233 bn$ Africa: 2008: +95 bn$ 2009: +35 bn$ 2010: +53 bn$ Source: EIU page 20 April 23, 2010
21 Some save a lot, others much less Gross savings rate in % of GDP, 2009 UK 2008: 15.4% 2009: 13.7% CEE 2008: 19.0% 2009: 21.3% Russia 2008: 31.6% 2009: 25.9% USA 2008: 9.0% 2009: 9.9% Eurozone 2008: 21.6% 2009: 19.4% North Africa 2008: 34.8% 2009: 25.3% Saudi Arabia 2008: 41.6% 2009: 27.2% Asia/Pacific 2008: 35.6% 2009: 33.7% Latin America 2008: 22.3% 2009: 18.8% Source: EIU page 21 April 23, 2010
22 Europe has signficant imbalances when looking at coutries separately (C/A balances as % of GDP; 2009) above 3% between 0 and 3% between -3% and 0 below -3% Source: EIU page 22 April 23, 2010
23 Macro-economic imbalances will not go away any time soon page 23 April 23, 2010
24 Impact on banking and leasing markets page 24 April 23, 2010
25 Banking Markets in CEE page 25 April 23, 2010
26 Market volumes of corporate loans in CEE, in bn Volume in bn AT CZ HR HU SK SR RO UA Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 page 26 April 23, 2010
27 Market volumes of retail loans in CEE, in bn Volume in bn AT CZ HR HU SK SR RO UA Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 page 27 April 23, 2010
28 Market volumes in corporate deposits in CEE, in bn Volume in bn AT CZ HR HU SK SR RO UA Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 page 28 April 23, 2010
29 Market volumes in retail deposits in CEE, in bn Volume in bn AT CZ HR HU SK RS RO UA Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 page 29 April 23, 2010
30 Leasing Markets in CEE page 30 April 23, 2010
31 New leasing business in CEE, ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Croatia Turkey Equipment Real estate Source: Leaseeurope page 31 April 23, 2010
32 Equipment leases by type of asset in CEE, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Turkey Machinery and industrial equipment Computers and business machines Road transport vehicles Motorcars Ships, aircraft, railway, rolling stock Others Source: Leaseeurope page 32 April 23, 2010
33 Development of leasing volumes (new business) in CEE, in mn Total Leasing % % % -60% -51% -76% -51% % -72% -85% 0 AT CZ SK HU HR RO SR BG UA SI page 33 April 23, 2010
34 In the car leasing business particularly HU and RO were declining in 2009 Car leasing market sizes 2009 (bubble = new leasing in mn ) compared to 2008 (change in %) AT CZ SK HU HR RO SR BG UA SI 0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Immorent page 34 April 23, 2010
35 In the equipment leasing business the largest markets performed (relatively) better Equipment leasing market sizes 2009 (bubble = new leasing in mn ) compared to 2008 (change in %) AT CZ SK HU HR RO SR BG UA SI 0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source Immorent page 35 April 23, 2010
36 and the real estate leasing business was somewhere in the middle Real Estate leasing market sizes 2009 (bubble = new leasing in mn ) compared to 2008 (change in %) AT CZ SK HU HR RO SR BG UA SI 0-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Immorent page 36 April 23, 2010
37 Leasing companies by ownership in CEE, Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia Estonia Latvia Lithuania Bulgaria Romania Turkey leasing companies with banking status or banks leasing companies owned by banks captive leasing companies independent leasing companies Source: Leaseeurope page 37 April 23, 2010
38 Average leasing market share of Erste Group in 2009 (% of new business volume) 4.4% 4.0% 8.9% 14.3% 2.1% 7.1% 13.9% 19.1% 4.1% 6.1% page 38 April 23, 2010
39 Leasing markets and GDP page 39 April 23, 2010
40 How important is GDP growth for the leasing business? 1200 Nominal GDP/capita vs. new leasing volume/capita R 2 = Source: Erste Group Research page 40 April 23, 2010
41 Looking at the different leasing categories: the closest relation to GDP is in theerste car GROUP leasing business Nominal GDP/capita vs. new leasing volume per capita page 41 April 23, 2010 Source: Erste Group Research
42 The relation is less clear for the equipment leasing business 450 Nominal GDP/capita vs. new leasing volume/capita page 42 April 23, 2010 Source: Erste Group Research
43 but more or less holds true for the real estate leasing business 400 Nominal GDP/capita vs. new leasing volume/capita page 43 April 23, 2010
44 In line with the general growth expectations for CEE there is reason to believe that the leasing market has a lot of potential! page 44 April 23, 2010
45 Thank you for your attention! page 45 April 23, 2010
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