FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005

Transcription

1 FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Fengxia Dong (515) Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (515)

2 Major Baseline Themes World Dairy Markets Trade: Expansion Prices: Gradual rise over the long term Major Exporters Australia & New Zealand: Export growth European Union: Export decline Argentina: Export growth Major Importers Asia: Steady growth of import demand Russia: Import growth

3 Macro-Per Capita GDP US Dollar per capita China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia Thailand

4 Macro-Population Million 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, China India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand

5 Macro-Exchange Rate Argentina Australia Brazil China EU-15 New Zealand

6 Dairy Product Output for Modeled Countries 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

7 Ukraine Per-Capita Butter Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita Argentina Australia EU-NMS EU-15 India Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215

8 Per-Capita Cheese Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita Argentina Australia EU NMS EU-15 Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia Ukraine 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215

9 Per-Capita NFD and WMP Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita China Malaysia Philippines Indonesia South Korea Thailand Vietnam Venezuela 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215

10 World Dairy Product Net Trade 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP

11 Net Export Growth: Major Exporters Butter Cheese NFD WMP Argentina Australia EU New Zealand Ukraine Uruguay

12 Net Import Growth: Major Importers Butter Cheese NFD WMP China Egypt Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia

13 World Dairy Prices (Australian Dairy Prices) AU Dollar per MT 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP

14 FOB Northern European Dairy Prices U.S. Dollar per MT 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP

15 Australian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 kg per Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

16 Australian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

17 Australian Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

18 New Zealand Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

19 New Zealand Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

20 New Zealand Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

21 EU-15 Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 25, 2, 15, kg per Head 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 1, 5, , 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

22 EU-15 Dairy Production 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 5

23 EU-15 Dairy Prices Euro per 1 kg Butter Cheese NFD WMP Butter Intervention NFD Intervention

24 EU NMS Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

25 EU NMS Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 1 5

26 EU-25 Dairy Production 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.

27 EU-25 Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

28 Argentine Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, kg per Head 6, 2,5 5, 2, 4, 1,5 3, 1, 2, 5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

29 Argentine Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

30 Argentine Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

31 Brazilian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, kg per Head 2,5 18, 16, 2, 14, 12, 1,5 1, 8, 1, 6, 4, 5 2, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

32 Brazilian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

33 Brazilian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

34 Mexican Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2,5 kg per Head 6, 2, 1,5 5, 4, 3, 1, 5 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

35 Mexican Dairy Production 25 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

36 Mexican Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

37 Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Colombia Peru Venezuela Uruguay

38 Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

39 Chinese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

40 Chinese Dairy Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk

41 Chinese Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

42 Indian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, kg per Head Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

43 Indian Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Cow Milk Other Milk (Buffalo)

44 Indian NFD and Butter Production and Trade Million MT NFD Prod. NFD Net Exports Butter Net Imports Butter Prod..

45 Japanese Dairy Production 25 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1..

46 South Korean Dairy Production 7 Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1.5

47 Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Thai, and Vietnamese Milk Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Indonesian Malaysian Philippine Thailand Vietnam

48 Asian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

49 Russian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, , 1,5 1, 5 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

50 Russian Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD Milk

51 Russian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

52 Thank You!

53 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Australia New Zealand EU-15 Other ROW

54 Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other ROW

55 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Ukraine

56 Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries 1, Japan Mexico Russia United States Other ROW

57 NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries Australia EU-15 New Zealand U.S. India Other Exporters

58 NFD Net Imports for Selected Countries China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand Vietnam

59 WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Other Exporters

60 WMP Net Imports for Selected Countries China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Venezuela Vietnam

61 EU-15 Butter and SMP Stocks Butter NFD

62 EU-15 Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

63 EU NMS Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

64 Uruguay Dairy Production Million MT Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.

65 Uruguay Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head kg per Head 1,2 1, , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

66 Uruguay Dairy Net Exports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

67 Indian Dairy Product Consumption 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Million MT 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Butter NFD Fluid Milk

68 Japanese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 1,5 kg per Head 1, 1, 95 9,5 9, 8, , 7, , Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

69 South Korean Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head kg per Head 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow

70 Japanese Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD

71 South Korean Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD

72 Indonesian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

73 Malaysian Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

74 Philippine Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

75 Thai Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP

76 Vietnam Dairy Net Imports Butter Cheese NFD WMP