Thailand Steel Industry 2017 and Outlook 2018

Transcription

1 Thailand Steel Industry 2017 and Outlook 2018 Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand June SEAISI Conference and Exhibition

2 Content Macro economics situation Steel industry in 2017 and outlook

3 Thai Economic Performance in 2017 and Q1/2018 (%YoY) Year Year Q3 Q4 Q1 GDP (CVM) Total Investment Private Public Private Consumption Government Consumption Export of Goods Volume Import of Goods Volume Current Account to GDP (%) Inflation = 3.9 % GDP Growth Q1/2018 =4.8% The GDP expanded by 4.8%, accelerating from 4.0% growth in Q4/2017. Private consumption and total investment will grow by 3.6 and 3.4 percent respectively. Export value of goods grew by 9.9%. Meanwhile, the inflation rate was 0.3 percent and the current account registered a surplus of 13.3 percent to GDP. 3

4 Q1/2018, Overall expenditure side improved, both private and Government consumption expenditure. Private consumption expenditure expenditure continually grew by 3.6 percent, slightly picked up from 3.4 percent in the previous quarter. Government consumption expenditure Growth (YoY%) Year Year Q3 Q4 Q1 Private consumption rose by 1.9 percent accelerating from 0.2 percent expansion in previous quarter.. Government consumption

5 Q1/2018, Total investment grew by 4.7% Private investment expanded by 3.1 percent improved from the 2.4 percent expansion in the previous quarter Public investment grow by 8.6 percent, recovering from a contraction of 1.2 percent in Growth (YoY%) Year Year Q3 Q4 Q1 Total Investment Private Public

6 Q1/2018 Construction sector increased by 1.2% Public Construction slightly decreased by 0.1%, but improved from a 7.1% decline in the previous quarter Private sector Construction increased by 3.4 %, significantly improved from a 2.3 % decline in the previous quarter Growth (YoY%) Year Year Q3 Q4 Q1 Construction Sector Private Construction Public Construction

7 is expected to expand in the range of percent (%YoY) Year Year Q3 Q4 Q1 Year(f) GDP (CVM) Total Investment Private Public Private Consumption Government Consumption Export of Goods Volume Import of Goods Volume Current Account to GDP (%) Inflation Key Components of Economic Projection for 2018 Expansion of goods and services exports, private consumption expenditure, as well as the stronger-than-expect growth of agricultural and manufacturing sectors. 7

8 Content Macro economics situation Steel industry in 2017 and outlook

9 In 2017, apparent steel demand decreased to MT, by -13.6% from

10 In 2017, production, import and apparent consumption decreased from 2016 except export. Consumption = MT, -13.6% Production = 6.87 MT, -13.6% Import = MT, -10.2% Export = 1.55 MT, +20.0% 10

11 In 2017, ratio long product demand : flat product demand = 34 : 66 Long product Cons = 5.65 mt, -25.6% Flat product Cons = mt, -5.9% Prod = 3.95 mt, -25.2% Prod = 2.93 mt, +9.3% Im = 2.61 mt, -16.4% Im = 8.71 mt, -8.2% Ex = 0.92 mt, +12.4% Ex = 0.64 mt, +33.1% 11

12 Consumption by product in 2017 Bar & Section ('000 tonnes) % Change '17/'16 Production 4,753 3, % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 5,115 3, % Wire rod ('000 tonnes) %Change '17/'16 Production % Import 1,691 1, % Export % Apparent Consumption 2,214 2, % HR Flat Product ('000 tonnes) % Change '17/'16 Production 2,676 2, % Import 4,982 4, % Export % Apparent Consumption 7,640 7, % CR Flat Product ('000 tonnes) % Change '17/'16 Production 1,842 1, % Import 1,266 1, % Export % Apparent Consumption 2,952 3, % Coated Flat Product ('000 tonnes % Change '17/'16 Production 1,427 1, % Import 2,722 2, % Export % Apparent Consumption 4,024 3, % 12

13 In 2017, Thailand steel industry currently low capacity utilization 13

14 Thailand rely on finished steel import around MT in 2017 (by product) No Product Group Quantity (Ton) Percentage 1 HR Coils/Sheets 3,718,039 33% 2 Coated Steel 2,556,427 23% 3 CR Coils/Sheets 1,574,661 14% 4 Wire rod 1,299,521 11% 5 Pipes & Tubes 633,876 6% 6 Bar 633,866 6% 7 Cold-finished & formed 385,299 3% 8 HR Plate 446,009 4% 9 HR Section 78,436 1% Total 11,326, % 14

15 Thailand rely on finished steel import around MT in 2017 (by country) No Country Quantity (Ton) Percentage 1 Japan 4,872, % 2 China 2,940, % 3 South Korea 1,683, % 4 Taiwan 579, % 5 Vietnam 388, % 6 India 157, % 7 Malaysia 119, % 8 Australia 118, % 9 Egypt 111, % Other 355, % World 11,326, % 15

16 2017 Thailand steel demand breakdown. Demand per capita is 251 Kg. Ratio Long product : Flat product = 34 : 66 Demand breakdown Appliance, 9.30% Packaging, 3.90% - Construction 57.6% - Automotive 18.1% - Machinery & Industrial 11.1% - Appliance 9.3% - Packaging 3.9% Machinery & Industrial, 11.10% Automotive, 18.10% Demand breakdown Construction, 57.60% 16

17 Apparent steel demand in first quarter 2018 Increased significantly compare with last year Thailand steel demand during Jan - Mar 2018 Total ('000 Tonnes) Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2018 % Change Production 1,802 1, % Import 2,813 2, % Export % Apparent Consumption 4,211 4, % Long ('000 Tonnes) Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2018 % Change Production 1,080 1, % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 1,419 1, % Flat ('000 Tonnes) Jan-Mar 2017 Jan-Mar 2018 % Change Production % Import 2,231 2, % Export % Apparent Consumption 2,792 2, % 17

18 Thailand steel demand forecast 2018 Apparent consumption +13.2% in 2018 at MT % 18

19 Thank you Disclaimer The information in the above report, publication and website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information. Any opinions or forecasts regarding future events may differ from actual events or results. In addition, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand reserves the right to make changes and corrections to the information, including any opinions or forecasts, at any time without notice. 19