Outline. Update on fish oil trade Iffo, Washington, D.C., October 25, 2017 Christian Meinich. Fish oil supply/demand EPA/DHA supply/demand Summary

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1 Bunntekst 1

2 Outline Update on fish oil trade Iffo, Washington, D.C., October 25, 2017 Christian Meinich Fish oil supply/demand EPA/DHA supply/demand Summary 2

3 jan.07 apr.07 jul.07 okt.07 jan.08 apr.08 jul.08 okt.08 jan.09 apr.09 jul.09 okt.09 jan.10 apr.10 jul.10 okt.10 jan.11 apr.11 jul.11 okt.11 jan.12 apr.12 jul.12 okt.12 jan.13 apr.13 jul.13 okt.13 jan.14 apr.14 jul.14 okt.14 jan.15 apr.15 jul.15 okt.15 jan.16 apr.16 jul.16 okt.16 jan.17 apr.17 jul.17 oct. 17 USD/Mt 3000 Fish oil vs rape oil Prices up from $1300/mt to $1600/mt: (and from bottom in June at $1150/1200) Fish oil, Peru, fob Fish oil, any origin, cif N.W. Eur, bas 18% epa/dha Rape oil, Dutch, fob ex-mill Bangkok October, Washington D.C. Barcelona May,

4 2017 Changes since IFFO Barcelona prospects: Key change - Production down about mt (Consumption up about / mt improved Norway and Chile salmon feed productions) Forecast Bangkok, Oct 2016 Barcelona, May 2017 Washington D.C., Oct 2017 World Production 2017 World consumption

5 2017 Changes since IFFO Barcelona prospects: Production down about mt (Peru and Gulf menhaden) Barcelona Peru (3 mill mt q2 + 2 mill mt q4 = 5,00 mill mt) * 4% oil yield Gulf menhaden mt * 13 % oil yield mt oil mt oil mt oil Washington, D.C. Peru (2,45 mill mt q2 + 1,8 mill mt? Q4 = 4,25 mill mt) * 3% oil yield Gulf menhaden mt * 7,5% oil yield mt oil mt oil mt oil 5

6 Current situation: - Low World stock - Hardly any unsold stocks - Main consumers generally covered through Q Short term: Market slow important uncertainty on short term supplies into q2: Peru Q4 fishery: - quota? - catch? - oil yields? - fatty acid profiles (suitability for Omega 3 markets) Scandinavia q1 fishery: Fishing set to pick up during q1, but when during q1? Short term bearish scenario: Oversupply end q1 Short term bullish scenario: Lack of physical oil end q1 Long term Potential for some World stock recovery given «normal» fishing/oilyields vs limited growth in demand (But we keep in mind the surprises during 2017, both on fishing and oil yields) 6

7 Fish oil (1000 mt) World Production Pelagic + salmon oil World consumption e 2018e 7

8 World fish oil production (1000 mt) Chile salmon oil Norway salmon oil e 2018e Other countries China Japan Panama Mexico Turkey Mauritania Morocco Ireland UK Faro Islands Norway pelagic Denmark Iceland Menhaden Chile pelagic Peru 8

9 600 World fish oil consumption trend (1000 mt) Aqua Omega-3 Tech/pet Burning e 2018e 9

10 Oil consumption in Aqua feeds in selected areas e (mt) Fish oil Vegetable oil/poultry fat Norway Chile Canada UK Other Europe Japan 10

11 60% Fish oil inclusion rate in salmon feed (of total oil in feed) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Norway Chile _ Fish oil inclusion rate 47% 34% 30% 30% 30% 31% 31% 31% 57% 40% 30% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 11

12 World fish oil consumption Aqua Omega-3 Tech/pet Burning 7% % 7% % 1% % 23% 23% 22% 69% 69% 70% 12

13 World fish oil consumption Asia (excl. China) Europe North America China Latin America Oceania % 3% % 9% 12% 9% 13% 9% 12% 16% 11% 16% 9% 18% 8% 50% 50% 50% 13

14 250 Annual ending stocks (1000 mt) e 2018e alternative 2018 (assuming poor fishing/oil yields like 2017) 14

15 World production vs consumption epa/dha (1000 mt) World Production Alternative 2018 production (assuming poor fishing/oil yields like 2017) World consumption (bas 6% epa/dha in oil fraction Chile + Norway salmon feed) Aggregate deficit : About mt e 2018e 15

16 World production epa/dha (1000 mt) e 2018e Chile salmon oil Norway salmon oil Other countries China Japan Panama Mexico Turkey Mauritania Morocco Ireland UK Faro Islands Norway pelagic Denmark Iceland Menhaden Chile pelagic Peru 16

17 World consumption epa/dha (1000 mt) Chile+Norway salmon feed bas 6% epa/dha in oil fraction of feed 140 Other Aqua Tech/pet Omega Burning e 2018e 17

18 EPA/DHA supply/demand epa/dha content in oil fraction of feed - basis respectively 25% and 30% oil fraction in Chilean and Norwegian salmon feed - other consumptions as per actual quality/origin used Likely surplus: Production Chile+Norway salmon feed Other Aqua 60 Tech/pet Omega Prod. 4,8mill alternative Peru N/C q2+q4 quotas 5,3 mill 3,5 % epa/dha 5 % epa/dha 6 % epa/dha in salmon feed fat.. 7,5 % epa/dha Burning 18

19 Alternative sources of epa/dha resource in aqua feeds Update ALGAE BioMar See uninterrupted supplies after news in September 2017 that bankrupt Terra Via (producer of AlgaPrime) had agreed to be sold to Dutch food ingredients firm Corbion Skretting Expects industrial scale supplies from second half of 2019 (Royal DSM/Evonic) GMO VEGETABLE OIL (TRANSFORMED FROM ALGAE) Cargill sees mass-produced GMO epa/dha canola oil by 2020 (BASF) 19

20 Conclusions - fish oil outlook 2018 Crude fish oil Short term into q2 low World stocks - uncertain prospects mainly on the supply side 2018 overall Potential for some stock recovery? (assuming «normal» fishing/oil yields vs small growth in aqua feeds) EPA/DHA fish oil based 2018 Balanced? - depending importantly on recovery in Peru Split for the Omega 3 market and feed markets will depend on fatty acid profiles in the upcoming productions 2017 was another year with disappointing profiles - Competetion between feed consumption and Omega 3 consumption? EPA/DHA alternative sources algae and GMO vegetable oils transformed from algae 2018 still low supplies Aqua feed producers expect considerable increase/mass production in supplies second half 2019/2020 onwards To watch (main focus on supplies uncertain for the coming months): Upcoming Q4 season in Peru (quota/catch/oil yields/fatty acid profiles) When during Q will Scandinavian productions pick up? Throughout 2018 Fishing/Oil yields Will expected improvements from poor levels in several fisheries throughout 2017 hold up? Restocking in the Omega 3 industry after four years of stock drawing? Aqua feed production growth prospects keep as is or change 20

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