Comparable efforts between Annex I countries based on principles proposed by the EU and Japan

Transcription

1 Comparable efforts between Annex I countries based on principles proposed by the EU and Japan AWG-KP workshop on issues relating to the scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex I Parties Bonn, Germany, 27 March 29 Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com Markus Hagemann, m.hagemann@ecofys.com

2 Studies on effort sharing Factors underpinning future action 27 Update Höhne, Phylipsen, Moltmann, 27 Ecofys for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Distribution of emission allowances under the Greenhouse Development Rights and other effort sharing approaches Höhne, Moltmann, 28 Ecofys report for Heinrich Böll Foundation Exploring comparable post-212 reduction efforts for Annex I countries Den Elzen, Höhne, van Vliet, Ellermann, 28 MNP and Ecofys for VROM NL Ongoing work Side event: Monday 3 March, 18., Room König

3 Content Effort sharing principles proposed by EU and Japan in Poznan Our interpretation of the principles into an effort sharing approach Results Conclusions

4 Our approach Based on internationally acknowledged data (UNFCCC technical paper on mitigation potential, FCCC/TP/28/1) Simple and transparent Starting point: emission level in 26 (not 199, not Kyoto targets)

5 Our approach based on EU principles Four indicators: Capability: GDP / cap Potential: GHG / GDP Responsibility: % change in emissions (199-26) National circumstances: projected population growth (26-22) E.g. countries with GDP/cap 1% higher than average reduce 1% more than average

6 Our approach based on Japanese principles Energy industries / power generation Convergence of CO 2 /kwh Industry Convergence of energy efficiency index Transport Convergence of GHG emissions per capita Adjusted for population density (target level is 1% higher if population density is 1% lower than average) Commercial / Residential Convergence GHG emissions per capita Adjusted for heating degree days (target level is 1% higher if heating degree days is 1% higher than average)

7 Convergence of energy intensity in energy industries CO2 emissions/ kwh [g CO2/kWh] Energy Industry - CO2/kWh Australia Canada Croatia Iceland Japan Liechtenstein N. Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA Belarus EU

8 Emission reductions in 22 below 26 EU principles Japanese principles Projection (Nat. Com., with measures) -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% Annex I is 3% below 199 in 22 Australia Belarus Canada Croatia Iceland Japan Liechtenstein N. Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA EU 25 Annex 1 Reduction below 26 in 22

9 Emission reductions below 199 in 22 EU principles Japanese principles Projection (Nat. Com., with measures) -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% Annex I is 3% below 199 in 22 Australia Belarus Canada Croatia Iceland Japan Liechtenstein N. Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA EU 25 Annex 1 Reduction below 199 in 22

10 Emission reductions below 199 in 22-8% EU principles Japanese principles Projection (Nat. Com., with measures) -6% Reduction below 199 in 22-4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% Australia Belarus Canada Croatia Iceland Japan Liechtenstein N. Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA EU 25 Annex 1 Annex I is 3% below 199 in 22 Error bars indicate possible range giving factors different weigh

11 Emission reductions below 199 in 22-8% EU principles EU Com numbers Projection (Nat. Com., with measures) -6% Reduction below 199 in 22-4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% Australia Belarus Canada Croatia Iceland Japan Liechtenstein N. Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland Turkey Ukraine USA EU 25 Annex 1 Annex I is 3% below 199 in 22 Error bars indicate possible range giving factors different weigh

12 Australia Australia 7 6 Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

13 Regional targets Australia Australia 7 6 Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target EU Commission analysis GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

14 Canada Canada Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

15 Canada luding lculations de in n Elzen et al. 8 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Canada Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles EU Commission analysis Kyoto target Equal reduction baseline Converging per capita emissions Equal MAC Triptych Equal costs (excl. IET & CDM) Equal costs (incl. IET & CDM)

16 Japan Japan 16 Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target 14 GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

17 Japan ncluding alculations ade in en Elzen et al Japan Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target Equal reduction baseline Equal MAC Equal costs (excl. IET & CDM) Equal costs (incl. IET & CDM) Converging per capita emissions Triptych EU Commission analysis GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

18 Russia Russia 35 Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target 3 GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

19 Russia luding lculations de in n Elzen et al. 8 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Russia Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target Equal reduction baseline Equal MAC Equal costs (excl. IET & CDM) Equal costs (incl. IET & CDM) Converging per capita emissions Triptych EU Commission analysis

20 United States United States 9 8 Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target 7 GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

21 United States luding lculations de in n Elzen et al. 8 GHG emissions (MtCO2e) United States Historical emissions Projected emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target Equal reduction baseline Equal MAC Equal costs (excl. IET & CDM) Equal costs (incl. IET & CDM) Converging per capita emissions Triptych EU Commission analysis

22 EU 25 EU Historical emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

23 Regional targets EU 25 luding lculations de in n Elzen et al EU 25 Historical emissions Japanese principles EU principles Kyoto target Equal reduction baseline Equal MAC Equal costs (excl. IET & CDM) Equal costs (incl. IET & CDM) Converging per capita emissions Triptych EU Commission analysis GHG emissions (MtCO2e)

24 Conclusions What are the effort sharing principles? It matters how possible principles are implemented Very important for countries that are different to the average (e.g. Japan, Canada) What is the basis for future reduction targets? 199, 26, Kyoto target, emissions in 28 to 212? Very important for countries that increased emissions (USA, Canada, Australia) or that are well below their Kyoto target (Russia, Ukraine) Process: Use simple and transparent principles (not cost information) to calculate possible future targets Use cost information to assess the possible future targets Negotiate the targets More detail: Side event, Monday 3 March, 18., Room König