Reducing transport emissions in Ireland: supporting ambitious new EU vehicle standards as a vital first step. Thomas Earl & James Nix

Transcription

1 Reducing transport emissions in Ireland: supporting ambitious new EU vehicle standards as a vital first step Thomas Earl & James Nix 2 November 2017

2 T&E 55 members/support groups in 27 countries 2 Our mission: to make transport cleaner and safer

3 3 These slides cover: - Ireland s greenhouse gas emission profile to date and its 2030 climate targets; transport emissions in context - Projected emissions in a business as usual scenario - How much can the implementation of ambitious, technically feasible, and economically sound vehicle targets help Ireland reach its climate obligations?

4 GHG (Mt CO2 eq) The effort sharing regulation (ESR) The ESR covers 72% of all Irish greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (2015 data; see pie chart for the key sectors). Irish ESR emissions have been rising since Note: the remaining 28% of emissions come from large installations such as powergen plants and cement kilns and are governed under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, or ETS. Ireland has to cut its ESR emissions by 30% by 2030 (with 2005 as the base year) ESR and ETS emissions for Ireland Year ESR Emissions ESR target (-30% on 2005) ETS Emissions ETS target (-43% on 2005) Sources: EEA and UNFCCC Agriculture 45% SHARE OF ESR SECTORS IN IRELAND IN 2015 Buildings 19% Transport 28% Industry 6% Waste 2%

5 Road transport in the ESR 5 96% of Irish transport emissions are from road transport IRELAND ROAD TRANSPORT IN 2015 EU law contains vehicle efficiency standards for new cars and vans. The standards for cars & vans are currently being updated (from Nov 2017) and a standard for new trucks is due to be proposed in early As Ireland s vehicle fleet is renewed, these standards reduce emissions once the new regulations deliver real-world CO2 cuts. Heavy duty trucks and buses 17% Light duty trucks 18% Motorcycles 0% Other 0% Cars 65% Source: UNFCCC reporting

6 Source: EU Reference Scenario, T&E s EUTRM 30% cut by 2030 in the context of business-as-usual projections Achieving the 30% reduction on 2005 road transport emissions will be challenging considering the expected growth in population and GDP Increase Population (million) GDP projections (2013 billions) Travel in passenger cars (billion passenger-km) Freight activity by heavy duty trucks (billion tonne-km) Road transport emissions (Mt of CO2 equivalent) % % % % %

7 Ambitious EU vehicle standards 7 Standards for new cars and vans will be based on real-world emissions, rather than a lab test. Ireland needs to join with other progressive Member States in pushing for ambition: Car standards: 25% improvement from 2021 to % improvement from 2021 to 2030 Van standards: 20% improvement from 2020 to % improvement from 2020 to 2030 Truck standards: 30% improvement to truck efficiency from 2020 to 2030

8 Mt CO2 eq. in 2030 Ambitious EU vehicle standards 8 Irish road transport will have to cut GHG emissions by 3 Mt to reach its target Road transport emissions growth: the gap to close in Ireland Mt Required Emissions Cut ,8 Mt 30% Target on 2005 Emissions for road transport 0

9 Mt CO2 eq. in 2030 Mt CO2 eq. in 2030 Ambitious EU vehicle standards 9 Ambitious vehicle efficiency standards reduce Ireland s effort by 1.3 Mt. The remaining gap needs to be met by national measures, such as road charging, modal shift measures, incentives for electric vehicles. Road transport emissions growth: the gap to close in Ireland What car, van & truck standards can do for Ireland ,5 3, Mt Required Emissions Cut 2,5 2,0 44% of the effort Savings delivered by standards ,8 Mt 30% Target on 2005 Emissions for road transport 1,5 1,0 0,5 1,7 Mt Remaining gap after standards 0 0,0

10 Conclusions 10 Irish citizens have much to gain by its government supporting ambition at EU level This work is pressing (the EU Commission is due to present new proposals for cars & vans on Wed, 8 Nov) Vehicle measures take effect without the need for additional steps within Ireland (e.g. a greater number of vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions are placed on the EU market) Just as vehicles are renewed over time, so too is electricity generation, and approx 80% of new EU powergen is wind / solar Ambitious EU reform can deliver almost half (44%) of Ireland s 2030 emissions reductions Ireland needs to adopt domestic measures to secure the majority (56%) of the reductions