Evolutionary Strategies for Growth and Commercialization of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells. Glenn Rambach

Transcription

1 Evolutionary Strategies for Growth and Commercialization of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Glenn Rambach

2 Evolutionary Strategies for Growth and Commercialization of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells or: Fuel Cells: Are they the Computer Chip of the Energy Industry? Glenn Rambach

3 What does a hydrogen economy mean? Long term: Numerous sustainable energy sources producing hydrogen. Hydrogen as a sustainable energy vector (or currency) carrying the energy to where it is used, and/or storing it until when it is needed. Storing energy economy quantities of hydrogen may take advantage new technologies and just-in-time inventory management. Most hydrogen today is produced from reformation of natural gas. Fuel cells can likely be the dominant power plant that uses the hydrogen. Internal and external combustion engines will also play a role. Unique to the energy R,D&D field, the rapid commercialization of hydrogen as a vector and fuel cells as an end use technology are tightly coupled. The market place is broad (Microwatt to megawatt, retail to energy economies)

4 How do we get to a hydrogen economy? Not solely through development of energy economy technologies and strategies. Most of the capital that will push hydrogen and fuel cell development over the next 5 10 years will be driven by revenue generated in markets other than transportation and energy. Military applications Consumer products and retail markets Premium power Niche vehicles This will be the most efficient pathway to ubiquitous commercialization. Policy, codes and standards, development within the transportation and energy industries, and government and international programs will play as a direct assault on the process.

5 The Long Transition Then 1972 Clean Air Act 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Catalytic converter IC Fusion Swoopy cars Lithium ion battery CVT Transmissions Electronic ignition Reformulated gasoline PNGV Hybrid drive train 1986 oil price collapse NiMH battery 11 Energy Policies 1979 Iran revolution Mag Fusion GM EV1 Gulf war I Exxon Valdez Fuel cell stock bubble Gulf war II Now Fuel Cells??

6 Cars: The Ultimate Fuel Cell Market

7 Cars: The Ultimate Fuel Cell Market Yeah, right.....!!!!!!

8 Cars: The Ultimate Fuel Cell Market Yeah, right.....!!!!!! Stated guardedly, not enthusiastically

9 *Proton Exchange Membrane Some PEM* Fuel Cell Basics

10 Basic proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell mechanism Reasonable cell voltage: V Carbon Triple Region e - H H H Catalyst sites e - H 2 H H + H + + 2H H + + e _ Hydrogen side Protons H 2 Porous Anode (carbon) External Load e - H + H + H + H + Thin-film Polymer Electrolyte Porous Cathode (carbon) Air side Temperature: 50-90C O 2 O 2 H + + e _ O + 2H H 2 O 2O H H 2 O Catalyzed Regions Membrane-Electrode Assembly (MEA)

11 Basic unit cell of a fuel cell system Also called a membrane-electrode assembly (MEA) Catalyzed, porous carbon electrode Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) One on each membrane face (anode and cathode) Pt, Pd, Rh.4-6 mg/cm 2 for hydrogen anode ~10 mg/cm 2 for reformate anode ~10 mg/cm 2 for air cathode <.001 thick 6.7 in A sulfonated, perfluorinated polymer film thick O-ring seals Particular to this manufacturer s design in Depending on design, this size MEA can produce Watts ( HP)

12 Membrane Electrode Assembly Production Perfluorinated polymer membrane w/sulfonic acid Catalyzed carbon electrode Courtesy: W. L. Gore & Associates, Inc. Equivalent to: piston, valves, piston rings, spark plug, wrist pin, connecting rod, cylinder, bearing, crank shaft for a 1/8 to 1/4 HP engine, manufactured on a roll!!!

13 Schematic diagram of a PEM fuel cell with bipolar separator plates and gas flow fields Flow field channels Membrane electrode assembly (MEA) Bipolar separator plates (electronically conductive)

14 Schematic cut away of a PEM fuel cell stack Stacking is necessary to add cell voltages Electrical Current PEM fuel cell stack H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 H 2 Air Air Air Air Air Air Air Air Air Air Air Motor e _ Air Membraneelectrode assembly (MEA) Hydrogen

15 PEM Fuel Cell Stacks 5kW (6.7 HP) kW (17.5 HP) kw (114 HP) 2002 Source: Ballard 0.2kW 10kW Source: Electrochem Source: Energy Partners

16 What s happened in the last ten years or so? Energy Partners Green Car Hydrogen fuel Three 5-kW PEM fuel cells Toyota Fuel Cell Hybrid Highlander... And several dozen more OEM fuel cell vehicles. GM Sequel Hydrogen fuel 100-kW PEM fuel cell GM HydroGen 3 (Opal Zafira) Liquid hydrogen fuel 85-kW PEM fuel cell

17 Fuel Cell Powered Vehicles on the Road in California DaimlerChrysler NECAR 5 Toyota's FCHV-4, based on the Highlander SUV Over 500,000 miles logged so far GM Opel HydroGen 1 Nissan Xterra FCV Ford 2002 Focus FCV Honda FCX V4 Hyundai Santa Fe FCEV Thor/ISE Research cell bus

18 GM Sequel Hydrogen Fuel Cell Car ALL the car stuff is inside the skateboard

19 Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Heat engine Fuel cell

20 Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Heat engine Fuel cell Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Today 2025?

21 Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Hybrid drive Direct drive Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Heat engine Fuel cell Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Today 2025?

22 Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Toyota Lexus RX 330 SUHV Ford Model U ICE-electric hybrid Fossil Hydrogen Development of hybrid vehicle systems Electric drives Controls Energy storage Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Hybrid drive Direct drive Heat engine Fuel cell Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Today 2025?

23 Toyota Lexus RX 330 SUHV Ford Model U Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway ICE-electric hybrid Fossil Hydrogen Development of fuel cell power systems at entry level cost and power density Fuel-cell-electric hybrid Hydrogen Toyota SUV Development of hybrid vehicle systems Electric drives Controls Energy storage Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Hybrid drive Direct drive Heat engine Fuel cell Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Today 2025?

24 Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Toyota Lexus RX 330 SUHV Ford Model U ICE-electric hybrid Fossil Hydrogen Development of fuel cell power systems at entry level cost and power density Fuel-cell-electric hybrid Hydrogen Toyota SUV Development of hybrid vehicle systems Electric drives Controls Energy storage Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Hybrid drive Direct drive Heat engine Fuel cell Development of fuel cell power systems with power cost and power density the same as an ICE Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Today 2025?

25 Toyota Lexus RX 330 SUHV Ford Model U Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Development of hybrid vehicle systems Electric drives Controls Energy storage ICE-electric hybrid Fossil Hydrogen Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Development of fuel cell power systems at entry level cost and power density Direct drive Heat engine Fuel cell Today 2025? Fuel-cell-electric hybrid Hydrogen Note: The battery electric vehicle was NEVER a player in the commercialization of ICE- HEVs and FC-EVs, except for helping Hybrid drive with Development of fuel cell power systems with power cost and power density the same as an ICE Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Toyota SUV

26 Toyota Lexus RX 330 SUHV Ford Model U Evolution to commercial fuel cell vehicles The direct ICE ICE hybrid fuel cell hybrid direct fuel cell pathway Development of hybrid vehicle systems Electric drives Controls Energy storage Fuel-cell-electric ICE-electric hybrid hybrid This is simply because it takes about Fossil Note: The battery electric 15 Hydrogen to 20 million watts of power to put a week s worth of driving Hydrogen energy vehicle on board was an average NEVER car in a less player than in 2 minutes, the whether commercialization it s electrons or chemical of ICE- fuel. This can be done with a hose of liquid or gaseous fuel (including HEVs and hydrogen), FC-EVs, but with except electricity, for 15MW is extremely helping difficult. with An ordinary gasoline pump hose typically delivers 15 to 20 MW of power. Internal combustion engine mechanical drive train Fossil fuels Heat engine Fuel cell Today 2025? Fuel cell electric direct drive Hydrogen GM HyWire Toyota SUV

27 The Computer Chip of the Energy and Transportation Industries?

28 Market evolution for personal computer microprocessor Comp power unit cost vs. comp unit power Compute power (MIPS) Pentium133 6/95 Pentium 9/ SX 9/ SL 10/ / SX 6/ / / /71 1 Compute power cost ($/MIPS) Note: MIPS = Million Instructions Per Second

29 Market evolution for personal computer microprocessor Comp power unit cost vs. comp unit power Compute power (MIPS) 1 Pentium133 6/95 Pentium 9/93 Now, simply changing axis labels from MIPS to kw SX 9/ SL 10/ / SX 6/ / / /71 Compute power cost ($/MIPS) Note: MIPS = Million Instructions Per Second

30 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production (Large) Unit size (kw) Educational device 0.01 Unit power cost ($/kw)

31 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells (smaller units) Less difficult Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production (Large) Unit size (kw) Educational device 0.01 Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw)

32 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells (smaller units) Less difficult Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Stationary utility production This plot area permits us to compare power and cost characteristics for real applications and relate them the actual cost and performance of fuel cells. (Large) Educational device 0.01 Less difficult Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

33 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells (smaller units) Less difficult Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production (Large) Unit size (kw) Auto Camcorder or laptop power 0.01 Less difficult Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

34 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Unit size (kw) (smaller units) Less difficult Less difficult (smaller units) Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production (Large) Unit size (kw) Auto Camcorder or laptop power Educational device 0.01 Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Less difficult Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

35 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Unit size (kw) (smaller units) Less difficult Less difficult (smaller units) Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production (Large) Unit size (kw) Auto Camcorder or laptop power 0.01 Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Less difficult Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

36 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Unit size (kw) (smaller units) Less difficult Less difficult (smaller units) Unit power cost vs. unit size Stationary utility production PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) Unit size (kw) Auto PEMFCs Today (Small) Camcorder or laptop power 0.01 Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Less difficult Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

37 Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Unit size (kw) (smaller units) Less difficult Less difficult (smaller units) Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Bus Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production Electric wheelchair PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power 0.01 Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Less difficult Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

38 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells This chart is an aid -for Find identifying the beginning market and entry start points. there It - leads us to... Less difficult Unit size (kw) (smaller units) 0.01 Unit power cost vs. unit size Auto Finish here Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Start here Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production Electric wheelchair PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Less difficult Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost (cost tolerant market) ($/kw)

39 Unit size (kw) This chart only provides the first consideration After identifying a cost/performance point that is of interest for your fuel cell technology, imagine a third axis that can represent EVERY OTHER potential market barrier, driver or attractor. Map out the expected values for each third axis characteristic and identify the barrier minimas and driver maximas on the third axis surface. There are different third axis characteristics that are important to consider when identifying a market entry point or market life pathway for a particular fuel cell system Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production Electric wheelchair Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost ($/kw) PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power

40 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Identifying market entry points - Find the beginning and start there - Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production Electric wheelchair PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power Educational device Educational device 0.01 Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost ($/kw)

41 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Identifying market entry points - Find the beginning and start there - Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Start here 0.01 Finish here Electric wheelchair Camcorder or laptop power Educational device Educational device Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost ($/kw)

42 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Identifying market entry points - Find the beginning and start there - Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Start here 0.01 Finish here Electric wheelchair Camcorder or laptop power Educational device Educational device Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost ($/kw)

43 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Identifying market entry points - Find the beginning and start there - Unit size (kw) Unit power cost vs. unit size Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Lion s share of current government and industry attention Stationary for utility fuel cell applications production 4 3 Range-extended electric utility vehicle Electric wheelchair PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power Educational device Educational device 0.01 Note: The areas outside the lion s Legend share tend to be where pure hydrogen Current fuel cell costs systems lie, which can be All the others: easier Current to manufacture. market prices Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost ($/kw)

44 Unit size (kw) Less difficult (smaller units) Market entry opportunities for fuel cells Identifying market entry points - Find the beginning and start there - Unit power cost vs. unit size Unit size (kw) Candidates for first four products Legend Current fuel cell costs All others: Current market prices 0.01 Auto Two-cycle scooter and small application Portable diesel generator replacements Range-extended electric utility vehicle Stationary utility production Electric wheelchair Less difficult (cost tolerant market) Unit power cost ($/kw) Unit power cost 4 3 ($/kw) PAFCs Today PEMFCs Today (Large) (Large) Residential direct power production Residential fuel cell battery hybrid (EPRI MON) PEMFCs PEMFCs Today Today (Small) (Small) Camcorder or laptop power Educational device Educational device 1,2

45 Retail product for first profitable PEM MEA This is the size of a PEM fuel cell needed for several retail products that can be produced, marketed and sold within 2 years.

46 Retail product for first profitable PEM MEA Product slide. 1,2 area on previous This is the size of a PEM fuel cell needed for several retail products that can be produced, marketed and sold within 2 years.

47 Considerations A fuel cell power system permits the separation of output (and input) power and energy storage in an electrical power source. Energy storage and power can be optimized independent of each other. Important in the market place at any scale, mw to MW Fuel cells exhibit useful power ranges from Watt to 1,000,000 Watts No other power plant can do this practically. Barring serious pitfalls, the fuel cell will most likely play the lead role in consumption of hydrogen, evolving over the next years. BUT the consumption rate of hydrogen and the generation of revenue are not necessarily coupled (for a while). Little things = big money today Big things = big money tomorrow Expect non linear growth from unexpected influences The importance of looking for enablers rather than drivers. Enablers are the things that, upon introduction are quickly used to accelerate the growth of an industry or the solution of a complex problem. Ford & DCX $$ to Ballard Honda marketing its supercapacitor Sodium borohydride Nanotechnology and fluidics The fuel cell and hydrogen industries get about an enabler a week. The technopreneur must have the right detector and understand its signals. The enablers for ICEs come much less often.

48 What business opportunity does a hydrogen economy offer? Major opportunity for generation of intellectual property. First-mover opportunity for higher margin products (make hay while the sun shines). New markets for new products that generate early revenue.

49 Starting with the Small Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Stuff

50 Micro Fuel Cell Potential Markets

51 Micro Fuel Cell Potential Markets

52 Retail Products Micro Fuel Cell Potential Markets Source: Third Orbit Power Systems

53 Retail Products Micro Fuel Cell Potential Markets Starting here increases the speed and likelihood of success for moving up market Source: Third Orbit Power Systems

54 Are Fuel Cells a Disruptive Technology? Are fuel cells on a track that intersects mainstream market needs, while still under performing? Are there undiscovered needs for a fuel cell product that does not meet mainstream requirements? Are there customers today who will buy and try the products ( selling real products to real people who pay real money )? Do the change the way producers and consumers value an existing, or new application? Source: C. M. Christensen, The Innovator s Dilemma

55 Characteristics of Major Fuel Cell Types Type PEFC AFC PAFC MCFC SOFC Electrolyte Operating Temperature Charge Carrier External Reformer for HC Fuel Prime Cell Components Ion Exchange Membranes (acid) Mobilized or Immobilized Potassium Hydroxide Immobilized Liquid Phosphoric Acid Immobilized Liquid Molten Carbonate Ceramic 80 C 65 C C 205 C C H+ OH- H+ CO3= O= Yes Yes Yes No No Carbon-based Carbon-based Graphitebased Stainlessbased Ceramic Catalyst Platinum Platinum Platinum Nickel Perovskites Product Water Management Product Heat Management Evaporative Evaporative Evaporative Process Gas + Independent Cooling Medium Process Gas + Electrolyte Circulation Process Gas + Independent Cooling Medium Gaseous Product Internal Reforming + Process Gas Gaseous Product Internal Reforming + Process Gas

56 Jadoo Power System s NABII PEM Fuel Cell Power Package 1 Hot-swappable hydrogen energy cartridges Fuel cell power pack Energy cartridge fill station Your Price: $3, Catalog Number:

57 Jadoo Power s Fuel Cell for High-End Video Cameras Established market value is $10,000 to $20,000 per kw. (Car engines are $15 - $40 per kw) Very easy to swap out hydrogen fuel cartridges.

58 Angstrom Power Systems 1 watt LED-fuel cell flashlight Replicable hydrogen supply allows 24 hours continuous operation at full current

59 Angstrom Power Systems 300 mw, 5V fuel cell stacks Hydrogen operation at 1 psi, atmospheric air

60 The three most important words for making a profit in fuel cells TODAY: 1. Packaging 2. Marketing 3. Distribution If you do things right, everything else is ready.

61 Thank you