FROM GASOLINE TO GAS

Transcription

1 Corland Publishing FROM GASOLINE TO GAS John McCormick Executive Editor, Hydrogen Forecast All contents copyright Corland Publishing Contact: or

2 forecast.com THE NEXT TRANSITION

3 Why not hydrogen? Cost of producing hydrogen Cost of establishing H2 infrastructure Fuel economy improvements from more ICE powertrains and gasoline/electric hybrids

4 The true cost of gasoline US, Europe and Japan hostage to whims of unstable/terrorist supporting nations US trade deficit, a record $726 billion in percent related to petroleum. Wars in Iraq to protect regional oil supplies $440 billion and counting. Part of 2007 Defense Department $439 billion budget request helps protect Japanese access and European access to oil in the Persian Gulf.

5 Infrastructure

6 H2 fuel station in Washington DC

7 Kicking our oil addiction Why ICE fuel economy improvements are not enough, even with hybrids, over long term

8 10% market penetration by vehicles with 50% fuel economy improvement by 2025 = 2% Fuel Reduction ( ) 200 Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles (Billion gallons per year) Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 x Source: US DoE

9 50% market penetration by vehicles with 50% Fuel Economy Improvement by 2025 = 9% Fuel Reduction ( ) Billion gallons per year Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 x Source: US DoE

10 Entire vehicle fleet with 62% fuel economy improvement by 2025 = 21% Fuel Reduction ( ) 200 Billion gallons per year Fuel reduced by highefficiency vehicles 2002 Level of Fuel Consumption Fuel Consumption 2025 = 2002 Fuel consumed by highefficiency vehicles Source: US DoE

11 Sources of hydrogen Multiple pathways: Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass One of best ways to generate hydrogen is through electrolysis using a nuclear plant

12 Nuclear option Western Europe Nuclear power is merging as option again. France already has 70 percent nuclear energy Britain and West Germany are reconsidering plans to phase out nuclear plants. Asia China, desperately short of energy, lacks oil resources, plans major nuclear plant program.

13 Developing the H2 FCV Many challenges but dramatic progress in recent years Obstacles: On-board storage Component cost Durability

14 6000 mile durability test

15 Driving the future

16 At the pump

17 The storage challenge Hydrogen Gas Liters 1 atm, ambient temp 5 kg Gasoline 55 Liters 1000

18 VOLUMETRIC ENERGY DENSITY X 4 CH 2 LH Methanol Gasoline (RFG) Diesel (RFD) MJ / l Energy / Volume

19 GRAVIMETRIC ENERGY DENSITY MJ / kg Hydrogen Energy / mass X Gasoline / Diesel* Methanol 0 * 44.5 / 45

20 HYDROGEN STORAGE OPTIONS PHYSICAL STORAGE Molecular CHEMICAL STORAGE Dissociated REVERSIBLE REVERSIBLE NON-REVERSIBLE REFORMED FUEL LIQUID HYDROGEN CRYO- ADSORPTION COMPRESSED GAS HYDROLYZED FUEL DECOMPOSED FUEL NANO STRUCTURE ADSORPTION CONVENTIONAL METAL HYDRIDES COMPLEX METAL HYDRIDES LIGHT ELEMENT SYSTEMS DESTABILIZED LIGHT ELEMENT SYSTEMS Carbon Metal Organic Frameworks La Ni 5 Ti Fe LiAlH 4 NaAlH 4 KAlH 4 MgH 2 Mg Alloys LiH+ Si MgH 2 + Si MgH 2 + Al Mg(AlH 4 ) 2

21 PROGRESS ON SOLID-STATE RE-FUELABLE ON-BOARD Future Materials Hydrogen Storage Density (MJ/kg) Traditional Metal Hydrides Mg 2 NiH 4 H FeTiH 1.7 LaNi Advanced Borohydrides Catalyzed Alanates LiNH + LiH Carbon NaBH 4 + X Modified B-N-H

22 GM FCV progress

23 Mercedes B-Class FCV

24 Mercedes F600 FCV at Tokyo show

25 Honda FCX at Tokyo show

26 Honda FCX

27 Honda FCX chassis

28 Ford fuel cell assembly

29 Ford FCV stack assembly insertion

30 Ford FCV stack assembly insertion

31 Compressed H2 Tank

32 GM Sequel FCV in Shanghai

33 GM Sequel skateboard chassis

34 GM skateboard concept chassis

35 Toyota Fine N FCV

36 Toyota Fine N FCV chassis

37 Toyota Fine-T FCV concept in Tokyo

38 Toyota Fine T FCV concept

39 Toyota Fine T concept

40 Long term benefit

41 Questions for Steel industry Design of vehicle of the future is open Vehicle architecture will an FCV use existing architecture, modified architecture or clean sheet, skateboard design? Will an FCV need high cost materials like aluminum and magnesium to lower vehicle weight or can steel meet the challenge?