M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC How Much will New Technologies Contribute to Better Air Quality?

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1 M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC How Much will New Technologies Contribute to Better Air Quality? 15 th IUAPPA World Clean Air Congress Greener Transport in a Post recession World Vancouver, British Columbia September 15, 2010

2 M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Environmental Consultancy focusing on Energy & Environmental Policy and Technology Development & Implementation for Transportation Help private, government, and non profit clients balance environmental goals with business objectives Transportation experience & expertise: Economic analysis and feasibility studies Prototype development and deployment Management of retrofit projects Emissions testing Emissions inventory analysis and modeling

M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Transportation Sector

Construction Locomotive Marine Transportation

duty hybrid electric drives Advanced technology

3 M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Transportation Sector experience Light duty vehicles Trucks and Buses Construction Locomotive Marine Transportation Technology Expertise Battery electric vehicles Heavy duty hybrid electric drives Advanced technology diesel engines Exhaust after treatment retrofits Hydrogen Fuel Cells

track & on road emission testing, inservice tests Compare technologies, estimate

4 M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Example Project: Since 2005, have tested 40 transit buses in Vancouver Diesel, advanced diesel, bio diesel Hybrid electric CNG, HCNG On track & on road emission testing, inservice tests Compare technologies, estimate life cycle costs Testing the Power of Tomorrow. Bus Technology and Alternative Fuel Program

5 Themes There is no free lunch or magic bullet when it comes to air quality and Exotic technologies will play a limited role in improving world air quality in the next 20 years but Main stream technologies alone can be used to significantly improve air quality in many places if They are supported by appropriate policies to incentivize their adoption and ensure that they are used properly

6 Where we are where we ve come from 30 years Ago Today U.S. LIGHT DUTY (gasoline) Carburetor Lean burn No after-treatment High sulfur, leaded fuel Electronic fuel injection Turbo-charging Exhaust gas recirculation Stoichiometric 3-way catalyst after-treatment Ultra-low sulfur, unleaded fuel U.S. HEAVY DUTY (Diesel) 2-stroke, poor oil control Natural aspiration Mechanical fuel injection No after-treatment High sulfur fuel Electronic fuel injection Turbo-charging Exhaust gas recirculation Oxidation catalyst Particulate Filter Selective Catalytic Reduction Ultra-low sulfur fuel

Significant Technology Advances Electronic fuel control Advanced materials and modeling Exhaust gas re circulation After treatment 9 Reduction

7 Significant Technology Advances Electronic fuel control Advanced materials and modeling Exhaust gas re circulation After treatment 9 Reduction Catalyst 9 Oxidation Catalyst 9 Particulate Filter 9 SCR 15th IUAPPA World Clean Air Conference, Special Session 3-way catalyst (gasoline) Diesel

8 and their effect on emissions U.S. and EU PM Standards for New Heavy-duty Diesel Engines Much of the Developing World - 95%

9 and their effect on emissions U.S. and EU NOx Standards for New Heavy-duty Diesel Engines Much of the Developing World - 95%

10 How we got here it wasn t easy 1970 passage of the Clean Air Act & 1990 Amendments Sets ambient air quality standards Sets emissions limits for new vehicles/engines Starting in the 1970s for cars Starting in 1988 for onroad diesel Starting in 2000 for nonroad diesel Standards for fuel quality (lead, sulfur) Individual States require/enforce Vehicle registration requirements Emissions inspection & maintenance requirements

11 Effect of Fleet Turnover Source: EPA420-R

12 Other Issues Fuel Quality Most after treatment is based on catalytic devices sensitive to fuel borne sulfur Modern, low emitting engines require low sulfur fuel Maintenance Mechanic s Tool Kit 1980 Mechanic s Tool Kit 2010

13 Importance of Enforcement Exhaust emissions from modern, clean gasoline, NG, and diesel engines can be increased by: Part failures / deterioration Poor fuel quality (adulteration) Tampering (re programming) Removal of after treatment In use inspection/enforcement of engine/vehicle emission standards is critical to achieving actual reductions from the inuse fleet Exhaust emissions test On board diagnostics (OBD)

14 What About the Cool New Stuff? LIGHT DUTY HEAVY DUTY Electrification Hybrid Electric Plug-in Hybrid Battery Electric Hybrid Electric Plug-in Hybrid Alternative Fuels Natural Gas - CNG Hydrogen - Fuel Cell Natural Gas - CNG - LNG Hydrogen - Fuel Cell

15 Transportation Electrification STATUS: Hybrids commercially available in US, EU. Plug in hybrids and battery electric cars commercially available in 1 2 years WEAK LINK: Energy Storage (chemical batteries) New chemistries (Li) and manufacturing methods hold promise Still very expensive CONSUMER ISSUES: Electric Range ( km per tank ) Cost (+$5,000 or more compared to gasoline car; +$100,000 or more compared to diesel bus) Where / how to fill the tank SOCIETAL ISSUES: Development of charging infrastructure ($$$) How is electricity produced and distributed? Net emission reduction

16 Electric Cars Hybrid-Electric Plug-in Hybrid Battery 34 Models for Million vehicles sold in U.S ( ) Incremental Cost: $4,000 - $9,000 28% - 42% higher MPG Annual fuel cost savings $300 -$400 Toyota Prius PHEV (Avail 2012) All Electric Range: 19 miles Price: ~$47,500 Mitsubishi imiev (Avail 2011) Range: 100 miles Price: ~$47,500 Hyundai Blue-Will (Avail 2012) All Electric Range: 38 miles Price: Unknown Nissan Leaf (Available 2011) Range: 100 miles Price: ~$33,800 Chevy Volt (avail 2011) Electric Range 40 mile Price: $41,000

17 Heavy Duty Hybrids Transit Bus Medium Duty Work Trucks All North American bus manufacturers offer hybrids 4,000+ in-service or on order $100,000 - $150,000 incremental cost Several major manufacturers offer hybrids 1,000+ in-service Most popular for applications with high vocational engine loads

18 How Electricity is Produced Matters Total CO2 Emissions - Plug-in Hybrid School Bus vs Diesel School Bus

19 Natural Gas Vehicles STATUS: A mature transportation technology with a significant base of in use vehicles around the world Emissions: PM, NOx (g/mi) similar to state of the art gasoline and diesel vehicles (stoichiometric NG w/ three way catalyst) 10 25% lower CO 2 emissions (g/mi) Potential for bio derived natural gas (renewable) WEAK LINK: Fueling Infrastructure Expensive Easier to develop for fleets captive to a city (buses, taxis) than for long haul freight trucks

20 Hydrogen Fuel Cells STATUS: Limited pre commercial demonstrations Full commercialization years? CONSUMER ISSUES Cost (+$1 million compared to diesel bus) Where / how to fill the tank Durability (Fuel cell engine 5,000 10,000 hrs) SOCIETAL ISSUES Where will H 2 come from/how will it be produced? Electrolysis of water: requires inexpensive & clean electricity Reforming Hydrocarbon Fuel: Efficiency & net CO 2?

Fuel Cell Vehicles Cars Buses Honda FCX Clarity # of Vehicles leased:

~2012 Small demo fleets in CA, BC, CT Purchase cost +$1 million

10,000 hr (3 5 years) Virtually all major manufacturers fielded small

21 Fuel Cell Vehicles Cars Buses Honda FCX Clarity # of Vehicles leased: 50 Price: $600/month (36 month lease) Kia Borrego FCEV Availability: ~2012 Small demo fleets in CA, BC, CT Purchase cost +$1 million compared to diesel bus Fuel cell engine durability currently 5,000 10,000 hr (3 5 years) Virtually all major manufacturers fielded small demo fleets last 6 years (250+ in-service) Limited commercial introduction

22 Summary Transportation electrification & hydrogen fuel cells hold some promise to reduce transportation emissions in the future, but they don t have a clear path to success It is likely that diesel, gasoline, and natural gas will be the primary transportation fuels for the foreseeable future In the near term, transportation emission reductions will more likely come from fleet turn over to vehicles with conventional, but state of the art, engines and aftertreatment This will NOT happen without government action to set and ENFORCE appropriate standards for fuel quality, new vehicle emissions, importation of used vehicles, and in use maintenance

23 Summary Setting Emission Standards Opportunity for countries to leap frog directly to Euro V/VI standards Set standards, don t pick technologies Fuel and technology must go together Enforcement May be able to leap frog directly to OBD Will require cultural change

M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Concord, MA Head Office 47 Junction Square Drive Concord, MA United States Tel: 978 369 5533 Fax: 978 369 7712 www.mjbradley.

24 M.J. Bradley & Associates LLC Concord, MA Head Office 47 Junction Square Drive Concord, MA United States Tel: Fax: Manchester, NH 1000 Elm Street 2nd Floor Manchester, NH United States Tel: Fax: Washington, DC 325 7th Street NW Suite 225 Washington, DC United States Tel: Fax:

Highway Engine Regulations in the U.S.

Development of Heavy-Duty On- Highway Engine Regulations in the U.S. The 4 th SINO-US Workshop on Motor Vehicle Pollution Prevention and Control U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation