2012 SAE Government and Industry Meeting January 26, 2012 EPA & NHTSA

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1 2012 SAE Government and Industry Meeting January 26, 2012 EPA & NHTSA

2 Agenda Proposed Standards General Technology Overview Overview of Several Key Technologies Recent Increases in Advanced Technology Penetrations Next Steps 2

3 Proposed Greenhouse Gas Standards Annual Improvement Rates Passenger Cars 5% 5% Light Trucks 3.5% 5% 2025 Projected Fleet-wide performance of 163 g/mi CO2, equivalent to 54.5 mpg if all technology used to meet the CO2 standards are fuel economy improving technology 2025 Passenger car target = 144 g/mi CO Light truck target = 203 g/mi CO2 GHG standards are performance-based, do not dictate technology GHG and CAFE standards closely coordinated 3

4 Proposed CAFE Standards Annual Improvement Rates Passenger Cars 4.1% 4.5% Light Truck 2.9% 4.7% 2025 Projected fleet-wide average requirement = 49.6 mpg 2025 Passenger car average requirement = 56.0 mpg 2025 Light truck average requirement = 40.3 mpg CAFE standards are performance-based, do not dictate technology CAFE and GHG standards closely coordinated 4

5 Wide-Range of Technologies Available A wide range of technologies can be used to reduce GHG/improve fuel economy, e.g., Improvements in vehicle aerodynamics, reduced rolling resistance tires, improved electric accessories, air conditioning systems, mass reduction Advanced gasoline and diesel engine technologies Transmissions with 8 speeds or more and dual-clutch technology Hybrids, plug-in hybrid electrics, and all electric vehicles EPA and NHTSA analysis project that most manufacturers could comply in 2025 by producing an overall fleet with: 82%-89 advanced gasoline and diesel vehicles 7% - 15% hybrids 3% plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and all electric vehicles NOTE: the standards are performance standards, not technology mandates. Manufacturers can choose any technologies to meet the standards. The agencies simply project possible paths toward compliance. Attend Friday s Light-duty Session on Light weighting, Fuel Economy, and Safety 10:30 12:30pm Friday 5

6 Engine Technologies Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) Fuel injected directly into cylinder Stoichiometric or lean-burn control Lean-burn emits even less CO2 and gets better fuel economy but requires lower gasoline sulfur Efficiency through engine downsizing & higher compression ratio Used today by Ford, VW, Toyota, Mazda, Hyundai, Kia, BMW, GM and others Often combined with turbo downsizing Gasoline Direct Injection 2005 Audi A4 6

7 Engine Technologies Turbocharging with Engine Downsizing Turbos use waste heat of engine to force more air into the cylinders - effectively increasing volume (& power) Turbocharging allows the use of smaller engine without loss in performance Historically sold as performance technology in the US, but also offers fuel efficiency improvements Utilized by Audi, Ford, Mazda, Volvo, GM, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, VW and others Mazda CX7 Turbocharger 7

8 Transmission Technologies Dual Clutch Transmissions Example 6 or 8 speed transmission with electronically actuated clutches replacing the torque converter No torque converter losses, and still able to find optimum shift points as for ATs Utilized by numerous mfrs on several models: BMW, VW, Ford, Audi 2012 Jetta GLI 8

9 Full & Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicles P2 & Power Split :Stop/Start, Regenerative Braking, Electric Assist, and short EV range Mild Hybrids Stop Start, Regenerative Braking, and limited electric assist Honda Insight / Civic / CR-Z Buick LaCrosse/Regal E-assist Hyundai Sonata Hybrid 2012 Buick LaCrosse with E-assist Toyota Prius Ford Fusion Hybrid 9

10 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle High capacity battery charges from standard household current and allows significant electric range (10-40 miles all electric range) Zero tailpipe emissions during electric operation All electric accessories Regenerative braking 2013 Ford C-Max Energi 2012 Toyota Prius Plug-in 2012 Chevrolet Volt 10

11 Electric Vehicle High capacity lithium ion battery charges from standard household current and allows significant electric range (~ miles all electric range) Zero tailpipe emissions during electric operation Tesla Roadster Nissan Leaf 11

12 Air Conditioning System Technologies Low-Leak Components (reduce HFCs) Improved System Efficiency (reduce CO2 & fuel consumption) Seal washers Low-permeation, barrier hose Alternative Refrigerants (reduce HFCs) R-744 (CO2) R-152a HFO-1234yf Variable compressor + reduced reheat Improved blower motor controls 2005 Audi A4 12

13 Key technologies rapidly increasing penetration in U.S new car+truck fleet Last three years have seen a significant increase in several key vehicle technologies Engine Technologies * Gasoline Direct Injection 2% 4% 8% 14% Variable Valve Timing 58% 72% 84% 94% Turbocharged or Supercharged 3% 4% 4% 7% Transmission Technologies * 5 speeds or less 71% 63% 48% 32% 6 speeds 19% 25% 38% 52% 7 speeds or more 2% 3% 3% 5% Continuously Variable Tranmissions (CVT) 8% 10% 11% 11% All data from 2011 EPA Trends Report, 2011 values are based on projected sales 13

14 MY2011/2012 vehicles which meet or exceed proposed GHG targets Mercedes Smart fortwo EV Lexus CT 200h Honda CR-Z Nissan Leaf Honda Insight Mercedes Smart fortwo Chevrolet Volt Toyota Highlander Hybrid Hyundia Elantra Toyota Prius Lexus RX 450h Honda Civic Hybrid Honda Civic CNG Hyundai Sonata Hybrid Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (2WD) 2017 Ford Fusion Hybrid Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (4WD) Ford Fiesta SFE Lincoln MKZ Hybrid Nissan Altima Hybrid Fiat 500, manual Toyota Camry Hybrid Cadillac Escalade Hybrid (2WD) Lexus HS 250h Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid (2WD) 2019 Ford Excape Hybrid Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid (4WD) Toyota Tacoma (2WD), manual Volkswagen Passat, manual Toyota Sienna 2018 Ford Fiesta Chevrolet Cruze Eco, manual Toyota Tacoma (2WD), auto Buick LaCrosse Ford Focus SFE Hyundia Accent Kia Forte Eco Honda Civic HF Infiniti M35h Mini Cooper, manual Honda Odyssey 2WD Honda Civic Chevrolet Cruze Ford Ranger 2WD, manual Ford Focus Buick Regal Blue = EV/PHEV Brown = HEV Green - diesel Black = gasoline No change in vehicles assumed, accept improved air conditioning systems 14

15 MY2011/2012 Vehicles within 5% of proposed 2017 GHG targets Audi A3 Mazda 2, manual Audi A6 Mercedes-Benz ML450 Hybrid Ford F Ecoboost (2WD) Mini Cooper Countryman, manual Ford F L (2WD) Mini Cooper, auto Ford Transit Connect (FWD) Nissan Frontier (2WD), manual Honda Fit Nissan Quest, manual Hyundai Entourage Nissan Versa Hyundai Sonata Nisssan Sentra Jetta Sportwagen Toyota Corrola, manual Kia Forte Toyota Venza Kia Optima Toyota Yaris Kia Rio Volkswagen Golf Kia Sedona Volkswagen Jetta Kia Sorento (4WD) Volkswagen Jetta Kia Sportage (4WD) Volkswagen Passat, auto Brown = HEV Green = diesel Black = gasoline No change in vehicles assumed, accept improved air conditioning systems 15

16 Public Participation and Final Rule Public comment period for Joint NPRM ends February 13, 2012 Public comment period for NHTSA Draft Environmental Impact Statement ends January 31, 2012 We held three public hearings in January Detroit (17 th ), Philadelphia (19 th ), San Francisco (24 th ) Following the close of the comment period, the agencies will consider all comments and data provided when developing the final rule, which we are targeting for mid-summer of this year 16

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