Diverse and Dynamic Automotive Propulsion landscape and it s impact on adoptions of Electric vehicles
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1 Diverse and Dynamic Automotive Propulsion landscape and it s impact on adoptions of Electric vehicles Presented by Gerard Strayhorn CFO/Finance Director Chrysler de Mexico With appreciation Jay Iyengar Global Director of Electrified Powertrain Chrysler Group LLC IMEF,4º Foro Nacional de la Industria Automotriz, Saltillo Coahuila, 25 de abril 2012
2 Drivers - New Energy Pathways for Transportation Environment Sustainability Regulations Customer
3 3 Background : Degrees of Vehicle Electrification Increasing Electrification = Bigger Battery Current 12V Stop-Start (12V, 3-7kW, 1-500Wh) Micro-Hybrid (<60V, 8-12kW, ~100Wh) Mild Hybrid (~110V, 12-20kW, ~1-200Wh) Full Hybrid (~300V, 20-50kW, 3-500Wh) (3-400V, 30-80kW, 3-15kWh) BEV (~400V, 100kW, 20kWh+) EREV (~400V, 100kW, 10-20kWh)
4 Background : Electrified Propulsion Features BEV / EREV Full HEV Mild HEV Micro E-Drive only e-launch & significant e-drive e-launch & low speed e-drive Full Recuperation Boost & Mild Recuperation Stop-Start Combustion Engine Propulsion Electrified Propulsion
5 Big Picture : Spectrum of Automotive Propulsion and Energy Pathways Renewable Energy Source Fossil Fuel Biomass Renewable Electricity Energy Carrier Fuels Electricity Hydrogen Auto Mobility Applications ICE HEV EV w/ice R.E. EV w/fc R.E. BEV FCEV Gasoline Mild Urban EV capable Full EV capable Full EV capable Full EV capable Full EV capable Diesel Full Zero emission Zero emission Zero emission Alternative Fuel Near zero EV range Short EV range Economical EV range Economical EV range Sufficient EV range Sufficient EV range Efficiency Electrified Propulsion
6 Need for Transition Transition from fossil fuel dominance to renewable energy dominance is needed ICE/Fossil Fuel Transition is a must ICE/Biofuel HEV Highway Long range City Grid independent EREV HEV /EREV/BEV EV/Renewable Electric Energy Short range Grid dependent One car fits all Mobility tied to ownership Paradigm Shift is needed Targeted applications Mobility tied to service/user
7 Energy Minimization One car fits all City, Highway Trip distance Pay loads Compromised design in powertrain/vehicle Over design and weight penalty Compromise in efficiency Consumers expectations Average Fuel Economy Vehicle will be lighter, with more connected intelligence BEV with renewable energy mix will become a significant enabler for energy minimization Efficient powertrain/vehicle optimized for Specific applications City car: optimized for City traffic HW car: optimized for HW of proper range More choices in Vehicle/technology selection Car pooling/sharing and mobility services Consumers - efficiency centric Trip Planning and ECO driving Less critical on range and performance
8 Simple Complex Magnitude How to achieve the Change Factors for Success Transitional Transformational New ways of thinking, fundamental revision of mission, strategy, and organizational culture. Transactional Transitional Refinement of mission, strategy, and organizational culture. Predictable Outcome Un Predictable Success of Transformational change is enabled by common goal & customer focus by all the stakeholders
9 9 Stakeholders for BEV Urban and city planners EV manufactures & EV industry suppliers Renewable energy providers Infrastructure providers Regulation and Policy makers Mobility service providers Customers
10 Urbanization Trends Combination of population increase in the developing world and unsustainable consumption levels in the developed world that poses a stark challenge to sustainability World population is projected to be 7 billion in 2012, to exceed 8 billion people by % of the population expected to be in cities and urban areas Mega city trends 29 megacities home to 10M or more ¾ of global energy consumption from the cities 4 to 7 times increase in energy consumption due to transportation Smart Urbanization is necessary
11 Urbanization - Mega City
12 Smart Urbanization Smart Transportation - Merger between Transportation & TIME ( Telecommunications, Information Technology, Media and Entertainment) Smart Technology - Smart vehicle - Smart grid - Smart infrastructure, cloud services
13 Smart Connected Vehicle Communication Cell Phone Internet Laptop Convenience V2G V2V Connectivity Home / Enterprise Navigation Safety
14 ZEV Credits as a Percent of PC/LDT Sales Influence of Government in Technology - ZEV Regulation Example BEV and credits starting 2018 : credit for 10 all electric miles UDDS test cycle with a cap of 1.10 with US06 all electric range capability of at least 10 miles earn an additional 0.2 credits BEV/FCV credit = (0.01) * (UDDS range) % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%.79% BEV/ FCV 2.21% 3% HEV 3% BEV/ FCV 3% 2% HEV CA, NY, MA, VT, ME, CT, RI, NJ, OR, MD (ZEV credits equal to the product of the ZEV requirement times the state sales volume ) Higher level credits can be used to cover lower level requirements in all years 4% BEV/ FCV 6% BEV/ FCV 6% 6% 2% Gas Gas BEV/ PZEV PZEV FCV 2.5% 3% 3.5% 4% 4.5% 5% 5.5% 6% Model Year 8% BEV/ FCV 10% BEV/ FCV 12% BEV/ FCV 14% BEV/ FCV 16% BEV/ FCV
15 Influence of Government in Affordability Cost vs Customer Payback Analysis Case Study Customer Value Four Technologies : BEV 40, EREV 40, 20, BEV 100 Small car: 180 Wh/mile for city, 230 Wh/mile for highway 36,000 miles, city or highway or city/hw mix Battery Size: 20 kwh pack, 65 % cost reduction from Battery residue value: 25% Electricity price: $0.12/kWh Customer Incentive: At $400/kWh Note : Assume that the fuel consumption & cost of the reference conventional vehicle has stayed the same between 2010 & 2020 Case # 1: Vehicle system cost (other than Battery) same between 2010 & 2020 Case # 2: Vehicle system cost reduced 3 % year over year Case # 3: Same as Case # 2, but with no customer incentives in 2020
16 Fuel Price $/gal Fuel Price $/gal Fuel Price $/gal Influence of Government in Affordability Cost vs Customer Payback Analysis Case Study 3-year payback for city driving First Bar 2010 Second Bar BEV40 EREV40 20 BEV BEV40 EREV40 20 BEV100 Government incentives will continue to be a key enabler to offer the customer the 3 year pay back, even with reduced system cost BEV40 EREV40 20 BEV100
17 Electric Vehicles for Fleet Operations Fleet operations may provide favorable business case for BEV adoption Well defined trips and schedules enable Good battery utilization Minimizing operating cost 3-party cooperative model may create additional values Fleet manager BEV manufacturer Electricity provider Government incentives are still necessary to sustain this in the near future
18 Influence of EV industry - Battery Value Chain Example Automotive EV Battery Value Chain & Key Players Raw Materials Cell Module Pack Vehicle First Use Re- Use Recycle OEM OEM Battery Cell Manufacturer Battery Manufacturer Battery Cell Manufacturer Battery Manufacturer Materials Manufacturer Battery Integrator Multiple Stake holders in the Battery value chain Full value chain needs to be considered to enable technology affordability Standardization is necessary to enable cost reductions Utilities Battery Integrator Second use companies Government Chemical Companies 18
19 BEV Mass Adoption Rates unpredictability due to complexity & competition HEV Scenario Dominance 1 HEV & Scenario Dominance 2 erev Scenario Dominance 3 ESS Cost High CO2 compliance achieved with ICE technology Lack of infrastructure Large Capacity ESS Cost high CO2 compliance not achieved with ICE technology Plug-in needed for compliance Cost of Range extenders is high Large Capacity ESS cost high ESS energy density continues to be an issue Range extenders are cost effective All propulsion technologies (ICE, HEV,, EREV, BEV) are evolving and competing, and there is no single technology solution for the near future as applications continue to be diverse In all three scenarios BEV will be onl y used for niche applications & very low adoption rates
20 Fuel Cell EV and FC Range Extended EV are potential future options Competition between FCEV and BEV is primarily depending on Electricity mix Renewable electricity makes BEV much more favorable If Biomass is the energy source, than H2 and FCEV is more favorable Fueling time H2 refueling time is comparable to liquid fueling time Range per charge FC systems have high energy density and high specific energy Therefore, by current assessment, FCEV can offer longer range FC Range Extended EV can be competitive against ICE Range Extended EV Zero emission Higher efficiency (60% vs. 40% or lower in range extending mode) If cost of FC system is significantly reduced (below $100/kW)
21 BEV adoption rate factors for short term In the short term EV early adopters will have to change expectation and usage, a source of uncertainty Prolong pay back time Plan trips diligently due to restricted range Accept slow charging and limited charging accesses Tolerate occasional inconvenience Learn to trust vehicle drive information Societal benefits can be reduced by Huge variations in current electricity mix WTW is less favorable than TTW
22 OEM s options - given the complex landscape Current expectation 2025 CO2 and fuel economy standards can not be met without electrification ICE dominance is expected to continue through 2025 Electrification will continue to improve viability and will pass early adoption phase by 2025 Approach to bridge to the future Improving ICE efficiency Downsizing Friction reduction Advanced injection and valvetrain technologies Advanced combustion controls Biofuel and alternative fuel Developing viable HEV and for mass deployment BEV and EREV targeted deployment depending on ESS cost Infrastructure development and connectivity development Specific applications
23 In Conclusion EV Mobility is a paradigm change and it requires cooperation of all stakeholders to achieve low carbon passenger transport Regulation and policy makers; Urban and city planners; EV manufactures; EV industry suppliers; Renewable energy providers; Infrastructure providers; Customers; Mobility service providers From a long term perspective, EV could be a dominant form of electrified auto mobility for urban areas - single propulsion, unlike HEV,, or EREV Technology advancements in Battery & other key components needed Standardization is paramount to achieving cost reductions & economies of scale Renewable energy must be a dominant source to propel EV Fuel Cell technology needs significantly advancements, and the path is expected to be much longer.
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