IHS AUTOMOTIVE Hybrid-EV Portal Hydrogen Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles and Refuelling Infrastructure Market: Now or Never?

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1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE 2016 Report Hybrid-EV Portal Hydrogen Fuel-cell Electric Vehicles and Refuelling Infrastructure Market: Now or Never? January 2016 ihs.com SAMPLE Ben Scott, Senior Analyst, +44 (0) ,

2 Contents GLOSSARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Background Hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle timeline HYDROGEN FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET SWOT analysis Barriers to market adoption BEVs versus FCEVs Batteries HYDROGEN FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLE COMPONENTS Powertrain components Hydrogen fuel cells Hydrogen storage OEM ACTIVITIES, STRATEGY, AND FCEV MODEL PRODUCTION FORECASTS Toyota, BMW, and Mazda Hyundai Kia Ford, Daimler, and Nissan GM and Honda Volkswagen Group FCA, PSA, and Tesla FCEV models by OEM Global passenger FCEV production forecast GLOBAL HYDROGEN MARKET HYDROGEN REFUELLING INFRASTRUCTURE Delivery of hydrogen to hydrogen refueling stations Hydrogen refueling station costs Hydrogen as a fuel Electrolysers Power-to-gas energy storage Energy companies, renewable power, and hydrogen Grid-to-motor efficiencies The hydrogen economy Hydrogen pipelines Hydrogen refueling station deployments and forecasts OTHER HYDROGEN FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES SUMMARY COMPANY PROFILES HYBRID-EV PORTAL SERVICE 2

3 Glossary FCEV (Hydrogen) Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle FC Fuel Cell BEV Battery Electric Vehicle HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle ICE Internal Combustion Engine PEM Proton Exchange Membrane MEA Membrane Electrode Assembly HRS Hydrogen Refuelling Station(s) OEM Vehicle Manufacturer 3

4 Introduction This report provides an comprehensive overview and outlook for the hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle and refuelling infrastructure market, analysing key areas including: Hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle production forecast by OEM Barriers to market adoption and opportunities Component analysis The global hydrogen market Hydrogen refuelling infrastructure forecast Players in the hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle market The research for this report included primary research interviews with OEMs, suppliers, industrial gas companies, infrastructure providers, and other key players in the market. Secondary research and reported data was also used in this report. The vehicle forecasts presented are from the IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production forecast (December 2015). The hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle market is just one part of the move toward greener mobility. The IHS Automotive Hybrid-EV Portal is a service that analyses all aspects of the hybrid and electric vehicle space, and completes the picture for this constantly evolving market. 4

5 Background In order for OEMs to comply with impending CO 2 legislation and regional emissions targets, alternative propulsion vehicles are entering OEM product portfolios. Hybridisation of the ICE powertrain is now commonplace, but these vehicles will not fully decarbonise the vehicle parc; zero emission vehicles, like BEVs and FCEVs, are seen as long-term solutions for low carbon mobility. While BEVs and FCEVs are often compared, the latter is not limited by autonomy (range) and charging time. There is a potential for FCEVs to play an important role in future mass-market mobility. Hydrogen Fuel Cells are not a new technology, with the first PEM fuel cell invented in Since then there have been improvements in the technology and applications in an automotive environment. There have been two waves of FCEVs from OEMs; the first from and the second from , but both times the market did not live up to expectations and the hype faded. The market is now into the third wave of FCEVs from OEMs. Is now the time for the FCEV to establish itself in the market, or will it remain a niche application? Outside of the automotive space, there is already an existing hydrogen market. There are opportunities to build on this market which could lead to nationwide hydrogen refuelling infrastructures. This is something that has been missing from previous attempts from OEMs to start the FCEV market. The quotes on the next page indicate the current state of mind of a number of industry players on the FCEV market. 5

6 Quotes Quotes The long term play is going to be fuel cell Fortune James E. Lentz CEO Toyota North America FCEV s are extremely silly speech during the Automotive News World Congress in Detroit Elon Musk CEO Tesla Motor It takes hours to recharge an electric car, where a hydrogen car can refuel in three minutes Financial Times Benoit Potier CEO Air Liquide Ten years ago, we said fuel cells could not be driven in cold weather, for example, and that the hardware was too heavy. Today, fuel cells are equal to gasoline engine cars. Hydrogen technology is well developed. Driving comfort and range autonomy are comparable to a conventional engine. Refueling is easy and fast if you can find a fuel station Forbes Takahiro Hachigo, President and Chief Executive Honda Motor Co "It's time to introduce a hydrogen era" Fleet Europe Frank Meijer, Head of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle, Hyundai Motor Europe Bloomberg Shinzo Abe Japanese Prime Minister Source: IHS 6

7 FCEV models by OEM FCEV models by OEM Toyota Mirai - ### Source: IHS 7

8 Hybrid-EV portal service Vehicle Specification Database Alternative Propulsion Production Forecast (EV, PHEV, FCEV, HEV) Incentives & Legislation Database Monthly Analysis Magazine (EV Technology, OEM Strategy, Industry Q&A ) IHS Automotive Hybrid-EV Portal EV Charging Infrastructure + Report The IHS Automotive Hybrid-EV Portal completes the picture for the evolving electric vehicle and e-mobility market. Daily News Regional E- Mobility Profiles Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging Report For more information on this service, please contact IHS. 8

9 IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; IHS TM AUTOMOTIVE COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2015 IHS. For internal use of IHS clients only. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This report is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at client s own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.

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