Markets for Fuel Cells: Industry Review 2012

Transcription

1 Markets for Fuel Cells: Industry Review 2012 Marge Ryan Market Analyst Fuel Cell Today 11 September 2012

2 Who is Fuel Cell Today? Established in 2001 by Johnson Matthey plc Three full-time analysts in Royston, UK Global market research Independent website Technology neutral All material is free Aim: support the commercialisation of fuel cells Inform industry & educate consumers

3 Toys and education kits Markets: Portable Currently >200,000 per year sold 15 25% annual growth Consumer electronics Portable chargers Next stage: integration into devices Military Battlefield fuel specification

4 Auxiliary power units Recreational vehicles Service vehicles HDD trucks Refrigerated trucks Ships, boats Aircraft Markets: Portable

5 Markets: Stationary Prime power Cogeneration Trigeneration Off-grid power Grid-support power Distributed generation Waste/by-product to energy Integrated renewable energy systems

6 Data centres Backup power Prime power Telecommunications Markets: Stationary

7 Markets: Stationary Residential (micro-chp) Japan South Korea Europe California Australia

8 Markets: Transport Ground Scooters Cars Buses Trains Trams Tractors Trucks Goods handling Maintenance etc Water Ferries Tugs Yachts Motorboats Submarines UUV etc Air Light aircraft Large aircraft (ground) UAV etc

9 Markets: Transport

10 Markets: Transport

11 Data The Industry Review Annual global shipments of fuel cell systems Shipment = working system (stack + BoP) Number of systems + total megawatts Period 5 years: historical data + forecast for current year Analyse by Application Region Technology type

12 Applications Stationary power Portable power Transportation

13 Regions

14 Technologies 1. PEMFC (HT + LT) 2. DMFC 3. PAFC 4. SOFC 5. MCFC 6. AFC

15 System numbers 39% growth in ,600 systems We expect almost 220% growth in 2012, to over 78,000 systems

16 System numbers Portable chargers for consumer electronics APU

17 System numbers Ene-Farm, Japan Growth elsewhere? Micro-CHP in Europe Telecom back-up, Asia & America

18 System numbers Forklift trucks, USA ARRA Plug Power: 2,800 GenDrive by Aug 2012, expect 4,000 by year end

19 System numbers RoW SOFC

20 Megawatts shipped 20% growth in 2011 over 100 MW for the first time For 2012 we forecast 60% growth, to over 174 MW

21 Megawatts shipped Large-scale power generation, USA & South Korea

22 Large stationary systems

23 South Korea 2013: 60 MW 2012: 50 MW By 2014: 230 MW for Seoul

24 Megawatts shipped Transport: Return to growth More buses & cars in 2010 More forklifts & scooters in 2012 Growth for all sectors expected from this point forward

25 Megawatts shipped Asia: Large stationary N America: Large stationary Europe: Transport

26 Megawatts shipped Significant growth in MCFC & SOFC due to shipments of large stationary fuel cells

27 Outlook: Systems The number of fuel cell systems shipped worldwide every year is expected to continue increasing. Rate? - Influencing factors: Market penetration of portable chargers Return to growth for APU Micro-CHP: low natural gas prices, feed-in tariffs Telecommunications: large potential Adoption of forklifts and scooters

28 Outlook: Megawatts The total megawatts shipped each year is also expected to continue increasing. Rate? - Influencing factors: Production capacity Influence of energy security concerns Expansion into other regional markets (Southeast Asia, South America) Market penetration of backup power Significant growth in buses & fuel cell vehicles from 2014

29 FCEV: The Road Ahead

30 Thank you