An overview of HVDC market and future outlook. Saqib Saeed Principal Analyst Power Technology Research LLC (PTR)

Transcription

1 An overview of HVDC market and future outlook Saqib Saeed Principal Analyst Power Technology Research LLC (PTR)

2 Agenda Global overview of HVDC market Specifics of growing HVDC markets Manufacturer profiles Opportunities and bottlenecks

3 Global overview of HVDC market Installed capacity split by technologies

4 HVDC Projects Projects Count by Region Europe and Asia to stay the biggest markets Africa Asia Australia & Oceania Source: Power Technology Research Number of HVDC Projects ( ) Europe Middle East North America South America VSC LCC

5 GW HVDC Installed Capacity Steady growth expected in VSC market LCC vs VSC capacity (GW) Source: Power Technology Research LCC VSC

6 Specifics of growing HVDC markets Market drivers, strategies and forecast

7 China s HVDC market overview China has developed a strong HVDC manufacturing base A surge of HVDC projects from 2001 to 2010 More than 23 projects Long distance bulk power transfer and China s dependability on hydropower were main instigators of these HVDC projects 58% of the projects were 3000MW and higher capacity From 2010 onwards, era of UHVDC projects was initiated 67% of the projects installed/planned after 2010 are UHVDC

8 China s HVDC market overview China has developed a strong HVDC manufacturing base Huge investments in R&D and make in China policy has started to pay off Local manufacturing of valves, transformers, reactors, submarine cables and P&C Three state-of-the-art testing labs by SGCC and CEPRI 93% of the switching elements used in all HVDC projects are produced locally More than 50% of converter transformers are also produced within China More VSC based projects are expected in future years Multiterminal wind power projects 9 VSC projects are expected till 2025

9 GW India s HVDC market overview More VSC based projects are expected in India Inter-regional capacity (23 GW) and unevenly distributed energy sources e.g. coal in central region (120GW) and hydro in north Back-to-back projects to connect regional transmission network Cross border HVDC projects with Bangladesh and Sri-Lanka Yearly capcity addition in India (GW)

10 EMEA HVDC market overview Renewables to drive the European HVDC market European market is growing at a rapid pace yet it is extremely competitive and dominated by Tier-1 players Integration of renewables (specifically offshore wind) will drive the future market with main influencing factor of UK and Germany s plans to install 25GW of offshore wind by MW capacity cross-border projects are planned in Middle East in next 3 years Saudi Arabia and GCC interconnections Electricity imports from MENA to European demand centers (EU- GCC clean energy) can result in multiple HVDC lines

11 Manufacturer profiles Go-to market strategies, mergers & acquisitions, R&D

12 ABB Largest installed base of 120 GW HVDC globally R&D spend in swiss semiconductor manufacturing base Focus on Asian markets Partnerships with local entities in India Divested its HV cables business

13 Siemens Expected to win major offshore wind power projects Recent R&D spend for a testing facility in Germany Focus on European market Partners with local Chinese players Sources IGBT modules from Infineon and Mitsubishi

14 Opportunities and bottlenecks Focus of OEMs and system operators

15 Offshore wind An opportunity VSC HVDC market will increase rapidly China, UK and Germany have plans to build multiple GW of offshore wind power projects All Tier-1 players have focus towards this market opportunity Also gives an opportunity to maritime industry players to provide platform for offshore converter stations Players from Middle East have built partnerships with Tier-1 players Offshore wind market and stricter grid codes will drive the VSC market at a rapid pace in next 5 years

16 Multivendor operability A challenge for system operators HVDC systems are provided as a turnkey solution to system operators A black box in terms of operation With increasing market of wind power, multiterminal HVDC systems are more common System operators expect to be able to install HVDC converters from different manufacturers in one multiterminal project A multivendor solution can result in a cost competitive environment

17 Multivendor operability A challenge for system operators European system operators are taking following steps to cope with the problem: Brining current OEMs on the same page to share information Small scale simulation based multiterminal systems with different suppliers to solve multivendor operability Standardizing design requirements for all manufacturers Encouraging new OEMs to make the HVDC market less concentrated

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19 Contact Details Saqib Saeed Principal Analyst T&D T. +49 (0) M. +49 (0) M Sunnyvale, CA, USA Munich, Germany Power Technology Research LLC All the products, company names and other marks/logos appearing in this document are trademarks and property of Power Technology Research LLC or their respective owners. No part of this analysis may be reproduced, reused or otherwise distributed in any form or fashion without prior written consent of Power Technology Research LLC, with the exception of any distribution as permitted by the license bought by the customer. Content reproduced or redistributed according to the permission must still give attribute of authorship to Power Technology Research LLC and display the legal notices. The information contained in this database is from sources deemed reliable by Power Technology Research LLC, however, the accuracy and completeness of the data is not warranted. To the extent permitted by the law, Power Technology Research LLC shall not be liable for any errors, omissions or any loss or damage incurred due to reliance on the information contained in this database. For further information, please visit the licensing section of our website under: or contact us at: ; (North America and RoW); +49 (0) (EMEA).

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