Asahi World Environmental Forum 14 September Global trends in clean energy investment. Michael Liebreich Chief Executive
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1 Asahi World Environmental Forum 14 September 2010 Global trends in clean energy investment Michael Liebreich Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
2 Global total new investment in clean energy ($bn) 43% 10% $157bn $173bn -7% $162bn $175bn Total Investment: $200bn 57% $110bn 54% $70bn $46bn Note: Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals 2
3 NEX clean energy index YTD Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Note: Values as of 20 Aug 2010; AMEX Oil, NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan
4 It s exciting when you have a real crisis on your hands, when you have spent half your political life dealing with humdrum issues like the environment Margaret Thatcher,
5 Copenhagen 5
6 6
7 US public opinion towards global warming 60% 50% 48% 40% 30% 34% 31% 27% 25% Generally exaggerated Generally correct 20% 24% Generally undereatimated 10% 0% 8% % No opinion Source: Gallup 7
8 Annual Global stimulus spending & stimulus components target at clean energy ($bn) bn 55.2bn 35% 30% 33.1bn 16.6bn 18% 14.7bn 9% 8% e 2011e 2012e 2013e Total $184bn Canada 1.0 Brazil 2.5 France 2.7 Spain 3.6 UK 3.7 Australia 4.1 Germany 4.2 Japan 8.6 EU South Korea 27.8 China 46.9 US 66.6, government agencies Note: Estimates based on disclosed information, as of 12 February
9 Multilateral and development bank lending ($bn) $17.4bn +21% $21.1bn $1.1bn +169% $8,510 Export Finance $6.5bn $3,853 $2,343 $10,641 $6,487 $11,477 Development Banks Multilaterals
10 Solar PV module prices ($/Wp) C-Si historic prices C-Si experience curve Chinese c-si module prices First Solar thin film module cost Thin film experience curve Cumulative production MW Note: , Paul Maycock; , Chinese c-si module prices 10
11 Spot price of solar-grade silicon, 2000 June 2010 ($/kg) Jun 10 May 10 Apr 10 Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sep 09 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 Dec 08 Nov 08 Oct 08 Sep 08 Aug 08 Jul 08 Jun 08 May 08 Apr 08 Mar 08 Feb 08 Jan 08 Dec Spot survey results 3-point average of historical deals Annual analyst estimates Source: Various, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Spot Survey Note: Annual data from various industry sources. Data November 2007 May 2009 based on a 3-point moving average of actual spot deals. Consistent monthly data collection using the Spot Survey began in May 2009, and this has been used May 2009-June
12 Turbine prices by delivery date, ($m & m/mw) Public data & NEF Wind Turbine Price Index Disclosed contracts WTPI % H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H Note: Prices include towers & transport, exclude civil engineering. denominated contracts converted to $ at the average exchange rate for the semester. Extract from H New Energy Finance WTPI participant report covering 62 contracts over the period 12
13 Disclosed turbine contract lead times by date of contract signing, excluding China (months) Jan 06 Aug 06 Apr 07 Dec 07 Jul 08 Mar 09 Oct 09 Jun 10 13
14 New financial investment in clean energy by region: 2007, 2008 & 2009 ($bn) % % % % +36% +29% EMEA AMER ASOC Note: Financial sector investment only (i.e. excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity). Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. 14
15 New financial investment in clean energy in the United States ($bn) Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals
16 New financial investment in clean energy in Europe ($bn) Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals
17 New financial investment in clean energy in China ($bn) Note: Includes 4 quarter running average. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals
18 Asset finance for new build clean energy assets - top 15 countries 2009 ($bn) China United Kingdom United States Spain Brazil Germany Italy Netherlands France Canada Mexico India Belgium Turkey Chile ASOC AMER EMEA 29.2 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 18
19 Public markets new equity raised for clean energy - top 15 countries 2009 ($bn) China United States Norway Denmark Canada Taiwan India Japan Germany South Korea United Kingdom Australia France Brazil Sweden ASOC AMER EMEA
20 VC new investment in clean energy by sector top 15 countries: 2009 ($m) United States $2,136m United Kingdom China Germany Canada Ireland Netherlands Israel France Switzerland Norway Australia Sweden Belgium Estonia $109m $97m $82m $76m $53m $50m $33m $27m $24m $16m $9m $5m $4m $4m Energy smart technologies Solar Wind Biofuels Other renewables Low carbon tech/services* Note: : Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals. *includes CCS 20
21 Top 10 manufacturers of photovoltaic cells (Rank order by MW) 2005 Company Country Production (MW) 1. Sharp Japan Kyocera Japan Q-Cells Germany Schott Solar Germany BP Solar USA Mitsubishi Electric Japan Sanyo Japan Shell Solar USA Motech Taiwan Isofoton Spain 39 Japan Europe USA China Other Asia 2010(e) Company Country Production (MW) 1. First Solar USA 1, Suntech China 1, Q-Cells Germany 1, JA Solar China SolarWorld Germany Sharp Japan Trina Solar China Yingli China Gintech Energy Taiwan Kyocera Japan 440 ; company announcements Note: TF = Thin Film; 2010 figures are for estimated annual production 21
22 Industrial clean energy investment announcements As at 2010 ($bn) Korea 81.9 Brazil 25.9 Japan 7.1 China 7.1 India 1.7 Note: includes industrial clean energy corporate announcements as at September 2010 across renewable energy and energy efficiency up until the year
23 Global total new investment in clean energy ($bn) 43% 10% $157bn $173bn -7% $162bn $175bn Total Investment: $200bn 57% $110bn 54% $70bn $46bn Note: Total values include estimates from undisclosed deals 23
24 Services: Thanks! Michael Liebreich Industry Intelligence: Data & Analytics Insight: Research & Analysis Forecasting: Carbon & Global Energy Custom & Consortium Research News & Commentary Executive Briefings & Workshops Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy and the carbon markets
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