FIGURE 5 DETAILS OF MAJOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR PEMFC BOP... 9 DIRECT METHANOL FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS... 9 FIGURE 6 SCHEMATIC OF A

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION... XXI STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES... XXI REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY... XXI CONTRIBUTION OF THE STUDY AND FOR WHOM... XXIII METHODOLOGY... XXVI INFORMATION SOURCES... XXVI ANALYST CREDENTIALS... XXVI RELATED BCC RESEARCH... XXVI BCC ONLINE SERVICES... XXVII DISCLAIMER... XXVII SUMMARY... XXVIII SUMMARY TABLE NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BALANCE OF PLANT MARKET PENETRATION, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS)... XXIX SUMMARY FIGURE NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BALANCE OF PLANT MARKET PENETRATION, ($ MILLIONS)... XXIX INDUSTRY OVERVIEW... 1 INTRODUCTION... 1 FIGURE 1 GENERAL SCHEMATIC OF A FUEL CELL POWER TEST AND INSTRUMENTATION LOCATIONS... 2 FIGURE 2 SCHEMATIC OF NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS INTEGRATION WITH THE FUEL CELL POWER STACK... 3 IMPORTANCE OF NON REACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BOP... 3 FIGURE 3 THE IMPORTANCE OF THE NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS... 4 FUEL CELL MATERIAL HANDLING AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM... 4 FIGURE 4 SCHEMATIC OF A FUEL CELL MATERIAL HANDLING AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM INTEGRATION WITH THE FUEL CELL STACK... 5 MINIMIZATION OF CELL RESISTIVITIES... 5 IONIC CONDUCTIVITIES... 6 SUBSTRATE MATERIAL... 6 BIPOLAR PLATE... 6 NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR VARIOUS FUEL CELLS... 7 PROTON EXCHANGE MEMBRANE FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS... 8

2 FIGURE 5 DETAILS OF MAJOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR PEMFC BOP... 9 DIRECT METHANOL FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS... 9 FIGURE 6 SCHEMATIC OF A DMFC DETAILING THE MAJOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR BOP SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS ZINC AIR FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FIGURE 7 SOFC SYSTEM WITH MAJOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS MOLTEN CARBONATE FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FIGURE 8 SCHEMATIC OF A MCFC WITH MAJOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS ALKALINE FUEL CELL NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS OVERVIEW OF NONREACTIVE BOP INDUSTRY ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE FIGURE 9 BOP IN A FUEL CELL MATERIAL HANDLING AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT TABLE 1 OVERVIEW OF NONREACTIVE BOP SUBSYSTEMS FOR FUEL CELLS TABLE 1 (CONTINUED) TABLE 1 (CONTINUED) REACTANT DELIVERY SYSTEM Liquid Reactant Delivery Air Delivery FIGURE 10 AIR DELIVERY SYSTEM FLOW DIAGRAM Hydrogen Storage FIGURE 11 TYPICAL HYDROGEN STORAGE LAYOUT HIGH PRESSURE CIRCUIT MOTIVE PRESSURE CIRCUIT FUEL DELIVERY SYSTEM Purge Circuit WATER MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM FIGURE 12 GENERAL LAYOUT OF A HUMIDIFIER SYSTEM STACK COOLING SYSTEM Main Coolant Loop Bypass Filtration Loop HEAT MANAGEMENT (COOLING) SYSTEM FIGURE 13 THE HEAT MANAGEMENT (COOLING) SYSTEM HEATING, VENTING, AND AIR CONDITIONING (HAVC) SYSTEM FIGURE 14 THE HVAC SYSTEM FLOW DIAGRAM LUBRICATION SYSTEM... 28

3 FIGURE 15 THE LIBRICATION SYSTEM FLOW DIAGRAM HYDRAULIC SYSTEM FIGURE 16 THE HYDRAULIC SYSTEM FLOW DIAGRAM RADIATOR FAN CIRCUIT POWER CONDITIONING SYSTEM FIGURE 17 ELECTRICAL SYSTEM FIGURE 18 SCHEMATIC OF A FUEL CELL POWER TRAIN (A) OVERALL SCHEME AND (B) ELECTRICAL CONNECTIONS BETWEEN STACK, BATTERIES AND LOAD WITH LOCATION OF SENSORS SYSTEM CONTROLS FIGURE 18 FUEL CELL CONTROL SYSTEM DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM (DAQ) LEAK DETECTION SYSTEM LEAK SENSORS LEAK INDICATORS AND JUNCTION BOX FIRE SUPPRESSION SYSTEM FIRE SENSORS AND THERMAL WIRE FIRE RETARDANT TANKS AND NOZZLES SOFTWARE COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE FIGURE 19 COMPETITIVE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE MARKET PENETRATION BY PRODUCT CATEGORY TABLE 2 OVERVIEW OF DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP BY PRODUCT CATEGORY, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) STORAGE MARKET PENETRATION TABLE 3 OVERVIEW OF MARKET FOR STORAGE IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) SUPPLY AND DELIVERY MARKET PENETRATION TABLE 4 OVERVIEW OF MARKET FOR SUPPLY AND DELIVERY IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP ($ MILLIONS) DISTRIBUTION MARKET PENETRATION TABLE 5 OVERVIEW OF MARKET FOR DISTRIBUTION IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 6 OVERVIEW OF MARKET FOR POWER IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP ($ MILLIONS) INSTRUMENTS MARKET PENETRATION TABLE 7 OVERVIEW OF MARKET FOR INSTRUMENTS IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) FLUID AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT MARKET PENETRATION... 44

4 TABLE 8 MARKET FOR FLUID AND THERMAL MANAGEMENT IN NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP ($ MILLIONS) IMPORTANT INDICATIONS AND COST REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BOP COMPACT HEAT EXCHANGERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR CERAMICS LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIALS SYSTEM INTEGRATION FIGURE 20 FUEL CELL COST MIGRATION PATH* TABLE 9 FUEL CELL STACK DURABILITY FREEZE START CAPABILITY TABLE 10 FUEL CELL STACK FREEZE START CAPABILITY (SECONDS TO 50% POWER) TABLE 10 (CONTINUED) VOLUMETRIC POWER DENSITY TABLE 11 FUEL CELL STACK POWER DENSITY (WATTS NET/LITRE, END-OF-LIFE) STACK POWER DENSITY TABLE 12 FUEL CELL STACK POWER DENSITY ($/WATTS NET) OVERVIEW OF COMPANY ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGICAL EXPERTISE TABLE 13 OVERVIEW OF MAJOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENT COMPANY EXPERTISE TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) TABLE 13 (CONTINUED) HISTORY OF THE INDUSTRY COST THE MAJOR HURDLE WORKFORCE AMERICA AND THE WORLD TABLE 14 OVERVIEW OF AMERICA AND THE WORLD DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS IN FUEL CELL BOP, (% UNITS DEVELOPED) EFFECT OF NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BOP AND THE FUTURE... 67

5 TABLE 15 END-USE APPLICATION OF VARIOUS FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES THE FUTURE THE FUTURE (CONTINUED) FIGURE 21 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS INDUSTRY LEGISLATION AND REGULATION INTRODUCTION THE BEACHES ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND COASTAL HEALTH ACT OF THE CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE OF THE INTEGRATED POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL DIRECTIVE TIRE PRESSURE MONITORING SYSTEMS TREAD ACT OF THE BIOTERRORISM ACT OF THE UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CLEAN AIR ACT NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT OF THE CLEAN MERCURY RULE CLEAR SKIES INITIATIVE INDIVIDUAL STATES INITIATIVES U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY FINAL PARTICULATE RULE FEDERAL ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT OF ARSENIC RULE ENERGY POLICY ACT OF CLEAN COAL POWER INITIATIVE ACT OF CLEAN WATER ACT SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT RESOURCE CONSERVATION AND RECOVERY ACT OF COMPREHENSIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE, COMPENSATION, AND LIABILITY ACT OF STATE OF CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD ADOPTS NEW EMISSIONS REGULATIONS THE FOREIGN CORRUPT PRACTICES ACT OF FUEL CELL INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND COMPETITIVE RATES INTRODUCTION MARKET STRUCTURE FIGURE 22 THE FUEL CELL MARKET STRUCTURE AND ROLE OF BOP COMPONENTS GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND COMPETITIVE RATES... 80

6 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH United States Canada Europe Asia Southeast Asia China South America Brazil Argentina Africa/Middle East TABLE 16 OVERVIEW AND FORECAST OF WORLDWIDE GDP, OVERVIEW OF THE METAL MARKET Steel Nickel TABLE 17 OVERVIEW OF NICKEL AND STEEL METAL PRICES, (INDEX: JANUARY, 1998 = 1.0) Aluminum Copper Cobalt Zinc Tin Chromium Molybdenum TABLE 18 RELATED METAL PRICES, THROUGH 2008 ($/LB OR TROY OUNCE) OVERVIEW OF THE PLASTICS/POLYMER MARKET FIGURE 23 PLASTIC PRICES LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP 93 GPPS TABLE 19 MAJOR PLASTICS/POLYMER PRICES, THROUGH, THROUGH 2008 ($/MT) COST OF MAJOR FOSSIL-BASED ENERGY FEEDSTOCKS Natural Gas Petroleum Coal TABLE 20 FOSSIL-BASED FEEDSTOCK COSTS, THROUGH COST OF MAJOR BIO-BASED ENERGY FEEDSTOCKS Biomass Biofuel Feedstocks... 96

7 TABLE 21 OVERVIEW OF BIO-BASED FEEDSTOCK COSTS, THROUGH INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES TABLE 22 INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES, THROUGH NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BALANCE OF PLANT (BOP) COMMERCIALIZATION TABLE 23 NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR BALANCE OF PLANT BY TYPE OF FUEL CELL, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) COMPARISON OF FUEL CELL OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS AND THE NEED FOR BOP COMPONENTS Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) Alkaline Fuel Cells (AFC) Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC) Zinc-Air Fuel Cell (ZAFC) TABLE 24 COMPARISON OF FUEL CELLS OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS AND END-USES TABLE 24 (CONTINUED) TABLE 24 (CONTINUED) TABLE 24 (CONTINUED) IMPORTANCE OF FUEL CELL SYSTEM ASSEMBLY/INSTALLATION Fuel Cell Stack Fuel Processor Balance-of-Plant Balance-of-Plant (Continued) TABLE 25 IMPORTANCE OF FUEL CELL BOP BY PRODUCT CATEGORY, THROUGH 2012 ($/KILOWATT) COMMERCIAL MARKET PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS TABLE 26 TYPICAL COMMERCIAL FUEL CELL PRODUCT DESCRIPTIONS AND COSTS, TABLE 26 (CONTINUED) TABLE 26 (CONTINUED) BUSINESS MODEL FIGURE 27 FUEL CELL COMPANY BUSINESS MODEL END-USE MARKET ENTRY OPPORTUNITIES Stationary Power Stations Portable Devices Transportation Domestic/Residential TABLE 27 FUEL CELLS END-USE MATRIX

8 PROFITABILITY AND INVESTMENT FOCUS TABLE 28 COMPANY PROFITABILITY FOR FUEL CELLS INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES, THROUGH 2006 (NET LOSSES $MILLIONS) TABLE 29 COMPANY PROFITABILITY FOR FUEL CELLS TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATORS, THROUGH 2006 (REVENUES $MILLIONS) FIGURE 25 FUEL CELL COMPANY INVESTMENT FOCUS MARKET ENTRY OPPURTUNITIES AND IMPORTANT SHIFTS/GROWTH DRIVERS Energy Prices Environmental Legislation Technology Cost Declines Power Quality National Security Outsourcing Test Code FIGURE 26 MARKET ENTRY OPPURTUNITIES FOR FUEL CELLS: PRODUCTS CHARACTERISTICS SALES, GROWTH, AND INVESTMENTS FIGURE 27 BCC RESEARCH CAGRESSIVE AND MODERATE FUEL CELL REVENUE PATHWAYS GLOBAL INVESTMENT FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BALANCE-OF-PLANT TABLE 30 GLOBAL INVESTMENT FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BALANCE-OF-PLANT ($ MILLIONS) WIDESPREAD APPLICATIONS Stationary Residential Transportation Portable Power Indoor Power TABLE 31 COMMERCIALIZATION STAGES FOR A TYPICAL FUEL CELL COMPANY* EARLY MARKET SALES TABLE 32 GLOBAL FUEL CELL END-USE MARKET SEGMENT SALES GROWTH BY VALUE, THROUGH 2012, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) MARKET ENTRY AND BARRIERS FIGURE 28 THE NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BOP MATERIALS PLAYGROUND MARKET DEFINITIONS

9 FUEL CELL INFRASTRUCTURE STACK AND SUPPORT (BOP) FUNCTIONS STATIONARY ~>3 KW MOBILE ~10 KW TO 250 KW COMPACT MICRO TABLE 33 TIMELINES FOR FUEL CELLS MARKET ENTRY TABLE 33 (CONTINUED) FINANCIAL CHALLENGES PUBLIC MARKETS LARGE INVESTORS VENTURE CAPITAL INDUSTRY FIGURE 29 FUEL CELL BASED MARKET FORECAST CUSTOMER BASE AND REGIONAL DIVERSIFICATION IN PRIVATE R&D SPENDING FOR FUEL CELL AND HYDROGEN INFRASTRUCTURE TABLE 34 REGIONAL DIVERSIFICATION IN PRIVATE FUEL CELL AND HYDROGEN R&D INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING ($ MILLION) COMPANY MARKET SHARES, ENGINEERING CAPABILITIES, AND TECHNOLOGICAL EXPERTISE Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) Revamping Car Design AUTOnomy Tier One Suppliers Substrate Suppliers Materials Integrity Companies Fuel Cell Integrators Software and Data Acquisition TABLE 35 ENGINEERING EXPERTISE FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENT SUPPLIERS BY MARKET SHARE (%) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) TABLE 35 (CONTINUED) CONCENTRATED INDUSTRY STRUCTURE CONCENTRATED REVENUE

10 TABLE 36 GLOBAL MARKET FOR PROCESS MONITORING DEVICES CONCENTRATION BY COMPANY REVENUE, THROUGH 2006 ($ MILLIONS) CONCENTRATED PEM FUEL CELL TABLE 37 CONCENTRATED PEMFC NONREACTIVE BALANCE OF PLANT COMPONENTS, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) CONCENTRATED NONREACTIVE BALANCE OF PLANT COMPONENTS BY GEOGRAPHY Large Stationary Small Stationary Portable TABLE 38 CONCENTRATED NONREACTIVE BALANCE OF PLANT COMPONENTS BY GEOGRAPHY (% FUEL CELL UNITS DEVELOPED) CONCENTRATED NONREACTIVE BALANCE OF PLANT COMPONENTS BY END USE Large Stationary Market Small Stationary Market Transportation Market Transportation Market (Continued) Portable Market TABLE 39 CONCENTRATED END-USE APPLICATION FOR FUEL CELLS, (%) TABLE 40 ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS CURRENT TIMETABLE FOR LAUNCH, COMPANY RESULTS AND PROFILES ABB ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES AMETEK ATMI CALGON CARBON DONALDSON EMERSON PROCESS MANAGEMENT ENGELHARD GE ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENTS GE SECURITY HEWLETT-PACKARD HIDEN ANALYTICAL HITACHI INSTRUMENTS INVENSYS JASCO JOHNSON MATTHEY MOLECULAR TECHNOLOGY GMBH PERKINELMER

11 OXFORD INSTRUMENTS PALL PARKER HANNIFIN RUDOLF INSTRUMENTS SIEMENS SMITHS DETECTION SPECTRO ANALYTICAL INSTRUMENTS SPECTROLAB TELEDYNE INSTRUMENTS-LEEMAN LABS THERMO ELECTRON TRACEDETECT VARIAN WONDERWARE TABLE 41 COMPANY RESULTS FOR NONREACTIVE BALANCE-OF- PLANT PRODUCERS, WORLDWIDE REVENUES, THROUGH 2006 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 41 (CONTINUED) TABLE 41 (CONTINUED) COMPANY RESULTS FOR MAJOR ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS Daimler Ford General Motors Mazda Motor Corp Mitsubishi Motors Corp Nissan Motor Co., Ltd Toyota Volkswagen AG TABLE 42 COMPANY RESULTS FOR MAJOR ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS, THROUGH 2006 ($BILLIONS/YEAR) COMPANY RESULTS FOR FUEL CELL INTEGRATORS Astris Energy Ballard Power Systems Inc Ceramic Fuel Cells Ltd Ceres Power Holdings Plc CMR Fuel Cells plc Electric Fuel Corporation FuelCell Energy Inc Manhattan Scientifics Inc Millenium Cell Inc Pacific Fuel Cell Corp Plug Power PolyFuel Inc

12 Power Air Corporation Metallic Power United Technologies TABLE 43 COMPANY RESULTS FOR FUEL CELLS TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATORS, THROUGH 2006 (REVENUES $MILLIONS) TABLE 43 (CONTINUED) COMPANY RESULTS FOR FUEL CELL INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES Alternate Energy Corp Distributed Energy Systems Dynetek Industries Ltd QuestAir Technologies Inc Voller Energy Group plc TABLE 44 MARKET PERFORMANCE FOR FUEL CELL INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANIES, THROUGH 2006 (REVENUES $MILLIONS) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR FUEL CELL BOP APPLICATIONS INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION (CONTINUED) TABLE 45 FUEL CELL CHARACTERISTICS TABLE 45 (CONTINUED) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR DIRECT METHANOL/ALCOHOL FUEL CELL (DAFC/DMFC) BOP TABLE 46 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR DAFC/DMFC APPLICATION, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR POLYMER ELECTROLYTE MEMBRANE FUEL CELL (PEMFC) BOP TABLE 47 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR PEMFC APPLICATIONS, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR PHOSPHORIC ACID FUEL CELL (PAFC) BOP TABLE 48 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR PAFC APPLICATIONS. THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 48 (CONTINUED) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR MOLTEN CARBONATE FUEL CELL BOP TABLE 49 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR MCFC BY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 49 (CONTINUED) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR ALKALINE FUEL CELL BOP

13 TABLE 50 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR AFC BY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL BOP TABLE 51 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR SOFC BY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 51 (CONTINUED) DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE COMPONENTS FOR ZINC AIR FUEL CELL BOP TABLE 52 DEMAND FOR NONREACTIVE BOP COMPONENTS FOR ZAFC BY APPLICATIONM, THROUGH 2012 ($ MILLIONS)