Battery Market Trends and Safety Aspects

Transcription

1 Battery Market Trends and Safety Aspects Adam Sobkowiak PhD, Battery Technologies , Breakfast Seminar at Celltech, Kista 1

2 Battery Market Trends Engineering with a difference

3 The total battery market is growing! Average growth of 8% between 2006 and 2016 Total storage capacity in 2016: 460 GWh Lead-acid still largest - 90% market share Li-ion fastest growing the major subject of industry investment More even in terms of market value 2017/2018 Source: Avicenne, 2017

4 The battery market of 2016 in numbers Li-ion 90 GWh 23 billion USD Lead-acid 367 GWh 33 billion USD NiMH + NiCd < 3 GWh 3 billion USD* Li-ion xev s and portable electronics Lead-acid Start light ignition bat. Industrial applications *Pack level Li-ion often considered as the future technology Source: Avicenne, 2017

5 The rate of adoption is changing Time to 1 million handset sales: 2005, Nokia N70: 2007, Apple iphone: 2014, Apple iphone 6: 1 year 72 days 7.2 hours Sources: Avicenne 2017, and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

6 The rate of adoption is changing Tesla reservations in the first 24 hours: 2012, Models S, $ $98 000: 2015, Model X, $ $ : 2016, Model 3, $35 000: Sources: Avicenne 2017, and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

7 Li-ion gigafactories by region and country Europe Europe is slow Asia (ex-china) US New plants still being constructed in Japan / Korea, but focus on plants in other countries Tesla is the main driving force China The new lithium ion industry is a China story 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Annual capacity Announced future capacity Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

8 Lithium ion cell costs ($/per kwh) Li-ion cell cost continue to decline to 2015: 12-14% per year to 2020: 15-20% per year 0 High Low Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

9 Manufacturing cost profile LITHIUM ION CELL Margin BATTERY PACK Margin Labour, Manufacturing, Energy, Other Cell Cost; 40% Bill of Materials; 60% Other (incl labour) Energy Management System On cell level, the main manufacturing cost stem from the material components Cathode, anode, current collectors (Aluminium, Copper), separator, electrolyte, etc Largest profit margin on battery pack level Many cell producers consider to enter battery pack production as well Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

10 The Li-ion battery value chain Cathode material companies: Cathode materials generate highest revenue Highly competitive field, require large scale production for profit Highly attractive market, makes many established companies entering the field Source: Avicenne 2017

11 Anode materials used in Li-ion batteries Graphite predominantly used Synthetic more expensive, used in high-end applications (EVs, etc) Natural increasingly used due to improvements in purity Nowadays, 1-5% Si is added to increase the energy density LTO used in nisch applications Improves safety in high-power applications, but lowers the cell voltage by 1.5 V Image sources: Avicenne (2017) and Hitachi Chemical

12 Cathode materials used in Li-ion batteries Lithium Cobalt Oxide, LiCoO 2 (LCO) High energy density, but low stability Lithium Manganese Oxide, LiMn 2 O 4 (LMO) High rate capability Lithium Nickel Cobalt Manganese, LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) Improved stability, various compositions (1/3, 1/3, 1/3), (8,1,1), etc Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium, LiNi 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.05 O 2 (NCA) Improved stability Lithium Iron Phosphate, LiFePO 4 (LFP) Extremely high stability, lower cell voltage forecast Sources: Avicenne 2017, and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

13 Is there enough lithium? Lithium Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide $12,313/tonne (March 2017) $17,000/tonne (March 2017) Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

14 Is there enough lithium? Argentina 55m tonnes (26%) Chile 50m tonnes (24%) Bolivia 32m tonnes (15%) Australia 30m tonnes (14%) China 15m tonnes (7%) Processing to battery grade chemicals by 2020 in: Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Japan, USA, Canada, South Korea World Lithium Resources (LCE) 210m tonnes World Lithium Reserves (LCE) 14m tonnes World Lithium Production (LCE) tonnes 94,976,569 Cars and Commercial Vehicles sold in ,871,134 Commercial vehicles 72,105,435 Cars 3,430GWh (150kWh avg.) Lithium ion battery production >12000% 5,047GWh (70kWh avg.) 2.74m tonnes LCE Lithium production up 3735% 4m tonnes LCE 6.74m tonnes LCE = 50% global reserves =3% global resources Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

15 Cobalt and Nickel demand The demand on Cobalt and Nickel for Li-ion batteries will increase The cobalt demands will constitute a large proportion of the total production Potential reason to a significant price increase However, doubling the metal prices might increase battery prices by only up to 10% Might be compensated by increasing the battery energy density Sources: Avicenne, 2017, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2017

16 Battery recycling becoming a hot topic Tesla is planning to recycle its batteries post 2020 Gigafactory cells will not have second life in utility storage post 80% capacity No major plans in place yet, just an initiative for spent batteries Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, 2017

17 Battery safety Designing and maintaining battery safety Engineering with a difference

18 More energy effect on safety? 1991: 80 Wh/kg 200 Wh/L Today: 250 Wh/kg 700 Wh/L High energy (small margins) Fast prod. launch Fast (wireless) charge Consequences? E.g. Samsung Galaxy Note 7: 3 million devices returned Multi-billion USD cost Many injuries, lost property cell after thermal runaway Samsung Galaxy Note battery failure Image Sources: Exponent 2011

19 Battery failure Root cause Failure mode Effect Manufacturing defects - Contaminations - Defects External abuse - Thermal - Mechanical - Electrical - Humidity Poor design - Cell - Pack - Safety electronics - Charger - System Short circuit - intrinsic - external External heating Overcharge - Li plating - O 2 release Over-discharge - Cu dissolution Over-current - Local overcharge Corrosion of electronics HEAT Benign failure - Ageing - Cell shut-down More heat Reaction rate THERMAL RUNAWAY Cell heating - Fire - Propagation Gas generation - Swelling - Venting - Rupture - Explosion

20 Battery components cylindrical cell Image Source: Battery University, 2016

21 Gas channels for pressure release Gas channel important for safe venting Usually comprises of a stiff center tube Not required and thus not always used Image Source: Exponent 2011

22 Built in safety devices Cylindrical cell: Safety vent Prevents bursting of the cell PTC* (a resettable thermistor) Increased resistance at 125 C CID** / thermal fuse Electric contact is cut irreversibly All Li-ion: Safety separator Shut down function at 130 C Electrolyte additives E.g. flame retardants PCM (Protection Circuit Module) Prevents overvoltage etc. *PTC = Positive Thermal Coefficient **CID = Current interrupt device Image Source: Battery University, 2016

23 Effect of form factor? Pouch cell Prismatic cell Pouch cells expected to grow the most in coming years because of lighter weight and more flexible design Cylindrical cells Source: Avicenne 2017

24 Safety components by form factor Cylindrical PTC CID Safety vent (gas channel) Prismatic Safety vent - Gas channels? (Thermal fuse) (PTC) Pouch Pressure build-up impossible (PTC) - Mech. stability?

25 Most common root causes Manufacturing defects Subtle abuse scenarios Might escape notice for years! No obvious safety standard can prevent field failures due to these effects Careful quality control necessary

26 Take home message More energy requires sufficient safety Maintained safety during operation requires: A proper risk analysis (FMEA*) Design for safety safety testing, validation, inspection High quality battery manufacturing inspection, factory audits Enough time for product evaluation Product/battery safety testing *Failure Mode and Effect Analysis

27 Engineering with a difference

28 Contact: Anton Nytén Tel: