Market Report INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL. HIGHLIGHTS WORLD ESTIMATES

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1 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL Grain GMR November HIGHLIGHTS Grains and oilseeds markets have been mixed over the last month. While the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index is down by 2% monthon-month (m/m), this masks divergent underlying trends. The soyabean and rice sub-indices have declined by 7% and 1%, respectively, offsetting gains in maize (up 7%), and a modest rise in wheat (up 1%). The grains supply and demand forecasts for 2012/13 have been revised slightly as harvests have been completed in some countries, but the outlook is largely unchanged. Total grains production is expected to fall by 5% year-on-year (y/y), and despite a contraction in consumption for the first time in 14 years, stocks are set to fall by 45 to 324m. In the wheat market, speculation about dwindling Black Sea supplies and the prospect of export curbs in Ukraine have dominated, yet flows frohe region have defied expectations. This has limited price upside from weather-related worries for 2012/13 crops currently being harvested in the southern hemisphere, and conditions for the recently planted winter wheat in the north. Given high prices, the total wheat harvested area for 2013/14 is set to increase by 2%, although conditions for parts of the US crop are a concern. Maize prices have outperformed other grains with improved US export hopes and less than favourable planting conditions for South American crops which are critical given tight supplies. In contrast, rice prices have been relatively stable, but Asian markets were pressured by new crop supplies and mostly limited activity. While some gains have been seen over the last week, soyabean prices have weakened m/m, particularly following upgrades to the US crop. However, while end-season stocks are set to recover, this hinges on record crops in South America, against a background of persistently strong import demand from China - the main factor behind a forecast 5% increase in global trade. WORLD ESTIMATES 09/10 10/11 11/12 est 12/13 forecast million tons TOTAL GRAINS a) Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters b) WHEAT Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters b) MAIZE (CORN) Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters c) million tons (milled basis) RICE Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters d) million tons SOYABEANS Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters e) a) Wheat and coarse grains b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US d) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam e) Argentina, Brazil, US IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI) 360 Jan 2000 = The rapeseed/canola market remains very tight, with output projected at a four-year low and 2012/13 stocks forecast to decline 23% y/y. Looking to 2013/14, high prices are expected to encourage a rebound in larger winter rapeseed planting in the EU, particularly in Germany Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Market Report See:

2 SUMMARY 2012/13 OUTLOOK FOR KEY GRAINS AND OILSEEDS WHEAT Wheat prices have stayed firm, with crop concerns offset by higher than anticipated exports frohe Black Sea region. Following slight revisions for Australia and the EU, the forecast for world wheat production is trimmed by 1, to 654m, a 6% y/y decline. While global consumption is also expected to fall 2% y/y, stocks are still set to contract by 23 y/y. Stronger than anticipated early season imports by China and Iran contribute to a 2 increase in the world trade forecast, but it is still sharply lower than last season. US$ / t US No 2 HRW 11.5% (Gulf) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MAIZE Maize prices have rallied m/m on revived export hopes in the US, combined with tightening old crop supplies and adverse planting weather in South America. The northern hemisphere harvest is almost complete, with sharp y/y declines in the US, Ukraine and EU, but output in the southern hemisphere is still expected to reach a new record. Smaller world supplies will cap feed and industrial demand, with total use forecast to decline for the first time in 19 years. Stocks will be tight in 2012/13, especially in the four major exporters, where carryovers may fall to a 16-year low. US$ / t US 3YC (Gulf) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RICE Asian rice markets mostly weakened over the last month as limited trade activity weighed on sentiment, along with increased supplies from main crop harvests. At 464, world rice production is forecast marginally lower than last month, but is still a record, as rises in China and elsewhere more than offset reduced output in India. World stocks are set to decline slightly in 2012/13, but supplies will remain comfortable, especially in the major exporters. Global trade in 2013 is projected to fall by 4% y/y on lower shipments to China and Nigeria. US$ / t Thailand 100% Grade B Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec OILSEEDS US$ / t US 2Y* (Gulf) Soyabean prices weakened during November as better than anticipated US yields and slow export demand outweighed support from South American crop concerns. World soyabean ending stocks are forecast to recover in 2012/13, led by inventory accumulation in major exporters, but this hinges on forecasts for record crops in South America. Global soyabean imports are set to expand by 5% y/y, mainly on larger shipments to China. Global rapeseed/canola output is forecast at a four-year low of 58.9 in 2012/13,, with high prices likely to deter imports, global trade is set to contract by 15% y/y Jan Feb Mar * Soyabeans Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec IGC 2012

3 GMR November 2012 GMR CONTENTS (N.B: Text and tables highlighted in blue are available in electronic version only ) COMMENTARY Page no. Page no. GRAINS OVERVIEW 4 OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 23 WHEAT 5 NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 24 Durum 8 Latest national trade-related measures 24 Other national policy developments 24 COARSE GRAINS 9 Other developments 25 Maize (corn) 9 Barley 12 BOXES Sorghum 14 Update: Grain and oilseed futures volatility 4 Oats Winter wheat planting 6 Rye 15 Update: The US Renewable Fuel Standard 10 Maize: Seasonality of the main exporters 11 RICE 17 Market Focus: China s 2012 rice imports 18 Winter rapeseed planting for 2013/14 22 OILSEEDS 20 Soyabeans 20 Soyameal 21 Rapeseed/canola 22 GRAINS TABLES Table no. Table no. PRODUCTION SUPPLY AND DEMAND Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 1 Total grains 18A All wheat 2 All wheat 18B Maize (corn) 3 Maize (corn) 18C Barley 4 Barley & sorghum 18D Sorghum 5 Oats & rye 18E Oats 6 Rye 7 Durum wheat: Supply and demand/production/trade 19 Totals by grain 8 TRADE RICE Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 9 Production 20 All wheat 10 Trade 21 Maize (corn) 11 Rice: main exporters' progress reports 21A Barley 12 Supply and demand 22 Sorghum 13 Cumulative shipments by destination - All rice E Oats 14 Rye 15 OILSEEDS Shipments and sales Soyabeans: production 23 Rapeseed/canola: production 24 Recent reported sales (wheat and coarse grains) 16 Soyabeans: trade 25 Wheat: main exporters' progress reports 17A Soyabeans: main exporters' progress reports 25A Maize (corn): main exporters' progress reports 17B Soyameal: trade 26 Barley: main exporters' progress reports 17C Soyameal: main exporters' progress reports 26A Rapeseed/canola: trade 27 Monthly and quarterly grain shipments A Rapeseed/canola: main exporters' progress reports 27A Cumulative shipments by destination Supply and demand: soyabeans & rapeseed/canola 28 Wheat B1 Cumulative shipments by destination Durum wheat B2 Soyabeans F1 Maize (corn) B3 Soyameal F2 Barley B4 Rapeseed/canola F3 Malt B5 Sorghum B6 PRICES Oats B7 Weekly export quotations (and GOI) 29 EU: licences, import duties and export refunds Futures prices 30 Export/import licences C1 Historical volatility 30A Import duties C2 IGC GOI and sub-indices G TRQ import licences C3 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES CHINA Selected grain routes 31 Production D1 Trade forecasts D2 Trade progress report D3 Official trade data D4

4 GMR November 2012 IGC GRAINS OVERVIEW Despite a minor upward revision this month, world total grains production is forecast down 5% y/y. While consumption is also expected to shrink, carryover stocks are set to decline by 45. World trade has been revised higher with greater than anticipated early season demand, but is expected to fall by 6% y/y in 2012/13. Preliminary forecasts for 2013/14 wheat suggest a 2% increase in the total wheat harvested area. World total grains production is forecast at 1,762, a minor upward revision from last month, but a 5% y/y decline. Consumption has also been revised slightly higher, but is expected to fall by 2% y/y to a 14-year low of 1,806, led by a 30m decline in forecast feed use. With consumption exceeding output, and following a 2 downward revision to 2011/12 end season stocks, 2012/13 carryovers have been revised lower by 4 and are expected to fall by 45m y/y to 324m. Wheat inventories are forecast to decline by 23, maize by 18m and other coarse grains by 2m. This puts stock levels equivalent to 18% of total use, compared to 20% the previous year. been hindered by dry conditions in the US and overly wet conditions in the UK and France, elsewhere the crop condition is regarded as generally good. Update: Grain and oilseed futures volatility Volatility in grains and oilseeds markets was significantly reduced over the last three months (September to November) compared with both the previous three months and, with the exception of canola and palm oil, the same period in Fundamental and seasonal influences appear to have had a greater bearing on grains markets than external market factors, notably lingering concerns about the euro, an issue that dominated sentiment during the same period last year. With harvests complete in many countries, there is less uncertainty surrounding northern hemisphere crop outcomes, likely leading to reduced day-to-day price swings. Historical volatility a) in nearby CME futures Total grains: Supply and demand 1,900 1,850 < World consumption < World production ,800 Stocks: major exporters a) > 175 1,750 1,700 1,650 1, a) 20 day rolling Quarterly historical volatility (%) 1,550 1,500 1,450 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US Forecast trade has been revised higher this month, by 4, led by a higher estimate for wheat due to stronger than anticipated early season import demand form China and Iran. However, overall 2012/13 trade is forecast down 6% y/y. Looking ahead to 2013/14, winter wheat planting is now almost complete in the northern hemisphere. Given elevated domestic and international prices and assuming normal growing conditions, the global total wheat harvested area in 2013/14 is forecast to rise by 2%, to 223m ha, the highest since While germination has Sep - Jun - Sep - Nov Nov a) Aug 5 yr ave CME Wheat KCBT Whe at MGE Wheat MATIF Wheat CME Corn CME Soyabeans CME Rough Rice ICE Canola BDM Palm Oil ICE Brent Crude Oil a) Data up to and including 28 Nov 4

5 IGC GMR November 2012 WHEAT SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Following slight revisions for Australia and the EU, the forecast for world wheat production is trimmed by 1, to 654m, a 6% y/y decline. Global consumption is placed 1 lower than before and down 2% y/y, as tight supplies and high prices contain feed and industrial use. The world stocks projection is put marginally higher, but shows a 23 y/y fall. Stronger than anticipated early season imports by China and Iran contribute to a 2 increase in the world trade forecast, but it is still sharply lower than last season s record. Wheat: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Jul/Jun Production The estimate for world wheat production in 2012/13 has been further reduced by 1, to 654m, down 6% from the previous year s record, following downward revisions for the EU and Australia, partly offset by a higher figure for Pakistan. The y/y decline is mostly due to lower yields, which, after the previous season s record, returned to the five-year average of about 3.0t/ha. Harvesting has begun in the southern hemisphere, where it will continue until the end of January. 1 Production in the EU is estimated at (137.4m previous year), including 122.3m (129.2m) of common wheat, a 5% reduction y/y due to lower harvested area and yields. However, given much better quality in Germany and eastern EU countries, the overall proportion of common milling wheat is higher than last year, estimated at about 71% (64%). In the CIS, 1 For area table see: following adverse weather conditions, the aggregate wheat crop is placed at 78.3, 32% lower than in 2011/12, with production in Kazakhstan falling by 54%, to 10.5m. Crops in Russia and Ukraine also decreased markedly, to 39.0 (56.2m) and 14.2m (22.3m), respectively. In Canada, all wheat production is estimated at 26.7 (25.3m), up 6% y/y, due to a substantial expansion in plantings, while yields were reported marginally lower than the previous year s record. The quality is reported to be better than in 2011/12, in terms of both grade and the protein content. The US wheat crop is officially estimated at 61.8, 14% higher than the year before, owing to both increased plantings and higher yields. This includes 44.8 (40.7m) of winter wheat, the highest since 2008, 2.2m (1.4m) of durum and 14.7m (12.4m) of other spring wheat. The quality of the Hard Red Winter wheat is reported to be better than average in terms of both the test weight and the protein content. Wheat: US production by class Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter Hard Red Spring White a) Durum b) TOTAL Total winter wheat Other spring wheat c) a) Spring and winter, b) Spring, c) Other category excludes durum Source: USDA In Argentina, dry and warmer than usual weather in mid-november was welcome in the previously wet central and north-eastern areas. The wheat area is estimated some 22% lower than last year, at about 3.6m ha (4.6m), as a result of switching to soyabeans and adverse weather conditions. The crop forecast is kept unchanged at 11.0 (14.1m), a 21% reduction y/y. In Brazil, mostly dry, seasonably warm weather benefited the maturing wheat in Rio Grande do Sul and southern Parana, with harvesting underway in some areas. The crop estimate is unchanged at 5.1, 12% lower than last season, due to reduced area and yields. In Australia, rains delayed harvesting in New South Wales and Queensland, while drier weather benefited crop maturation in South Australia and northern Victoria. Overall, yields are forecast significantly lower than last year s record due to earlier dryness in Western Australia and parts of New South Wales and Queensland. When combined with a reduced area, production is projected at 21.5, 0.5m lower than last month, and nearly onequarter below 2011/12. In South Africa, dry and warmer than usual weather assisted crop maturation, with harvesting underway in some areas. Based on a smaller area and slightly lower yields, production is forecast at 1.8 (2.0m), unchanged from before. 5

6 GMR November 2012 IGC 2013 Winter wheat planting Given elevated domestic and international prices and assuming normal growing conditions, the total wheat harvested area in 2013/14 is forecast to rise by 2%, to 223.2m ha. If realised, this would be the highest since 1998, with increased areas projected in the EU, Russia, Ukraine, the US and Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, where winter wheat planting is almost complete, the crop condition is regarded as generally good and the plants are reasonably well established ahead of the winter, except for parts of the US, where dry conditions slowed germination, and parts of the EU (UK and France) where conditions were overly wet. Wheat: harvested area (est.) (f'cast) m ha EUROPE EU CIS Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine N & C AMERICA Canada US SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil ASIA NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Syria Turkey FAR EAST ASIA China India Pakistan AFRICA North Africa Egypt Morocco OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL In the EU, wet weather across southern Europe and the Balkans has boosted the soil moisture and reservoir levels, while south-eastern regions continued to suffer from dry conditions. In northern Europe, drier weather promoted late-season fieldwork and winter crop establishment in mid-november. However, wet conditions have hindered germination in the UK and France. Due to attractive prices and assuming normal weather conditions, the total wheat harvested area is projected 3% higher than in 2012/13, at about 25.8m ha, with the increase exclusively for common wheat. Harvested areas are expected to rise in Denmark, Germany and Poland, recouping the frost-related losses of 2012/13. Winter crops in northern and central parts of western Russia are entering dormancy, while growth is continuing in southern regions, where, despite some showers, more rainfall is required for normal crop establishment. High domestic and international prices have encouraged plantings and, assuming normal growing conditions, the total wheat harvested area is forecast to increase to 25.5m ha (23.5m). In Ukraine, plantings of winter wheat, which account for 95% of the crop, are reported slightly higher than in 2012, at 6.7m ha, mainly due to better weather conditions. The total harvested area is projected to rebound to the five-year average of 6.5m ha (5.6m). In the US, despite recent rains across eastern areas, dryness throughout much of the autumn had a negative impact on the winter wheat emergence and development. While the emergence was only slightly behind last year and the five-year average, the crop condition was significantly lower y/y, with 33% (52%) of the crop rated as good/excellent by 25 November. Given high prices, total plantings are expected to increase by 4%, to 23.6m ha. Based on a long-term abandonment rate of about 14%, the harvested area is forecast up 2.5%, at 20.3m ha. In China, dry and cooler than normal weather settled across the North China Plain before the onset of winter. The total area is projected to be unchanged frohe current season, at 24.3m ha. Warm and dry weather in November promoted wheat growth in northern India and Pakistan, while lateseason monsoon rains in August and September have replenished water reservoirs. The area in both countries is projected at a similar level to 2012/13, at 29.6m ha and 8.8m, respectively. Rains improved soil moisture in central and eastern growing areas of Turkey, while drier conditions in western regions promoted winter crop growth. Iran s crops also benefitted from rainfall, including previously dry eastern regions.in North Africa, stormy weather with heavy rains spread from northern Morocco into Algeria and Tunisia, providing ample moisture for winter wheat establishment, but was excessive in places and delayed the planting progress in some areas. The aggregate harvested area is forecast little changed frohe previous season, at 7.1m ha. 6

7 IGC GMR November 2012 Consumption Given lower figures for feed and industrial use, the forecast for world wheat consumption in 2012/13 is put 1 lower than last month, at 678m (693m). While global feed use is expected to be maintained at a relatively high level of 130.4, about 15m above the average in the previous five years, tighter availabilities will see a steep decline from last year s record of 145.7m. Forecasts are revised slightly lower for the EU, Russia and Ukraine. After a small cut this month, global industrial use is now expected to be unchanged frohe year before, at Projected demand for ethanol in the EU is reduced by 0.4, to 3.6m (3.8m), mainly due to limited wheat supplies in the UK Wheat: Supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > Trade World wheat trade in 2012/13 is placed 2.0 higher than last time, at 134.2m, mainly due to recent stronger than expected imports by China and Iran. Nevertheless, total trade is still projected to recede sharply from last year s record of 145.6, curtailed by a downturn in feed wheat imports amid tighter global availabilities. Even though Russia s export surplus is estimated to be dwindling, shipments have been sustained at a higher than expected level and the forecast is lifted by 1.0, to 10.0m (21.6m). The projection for Ukraine is also raised by 0.5 to 5.9m (5.4m), with most expected to be shipped before the end of November. Tightening Black Sea supplies continue to bolster demand for EU wheats and the export forecast is increased by 1.2 to 18.0m (15.6m). With sustained strong competition, US exports (Jun/May) are lowered by 1.4 to 29.9m (28.6m). The figure for Australia (Oct/Sep) is cut by 0.7 to 20.0m (24.7m), due to a deteriorating production outlook. However, India s exports are boosted by 1.0, to a record 6.0m (1.3m) RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Stocks The forecast for world carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is lifted slightly frohe October GMR, but is still placed at a four-year low of 173. This is a drop of 23m from the end of the previous season, with most of the fall in the eight major exporters. Their combined inventories are forecast to decline by 20.0, to 50.3m, led by steep falls in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. Given slow exports, the forecast for US stocks is raised by 1.4, to 19.2m (20.2m), but this is almost entirely offset by reductions for Canada, the EU, Ukraine and Russia. 0 World wheat export prices stayed firm during November, with the IGC GOI wheat sub-index posting a small net gain over the month. Continued export competition from the Black Sea region weighed on values at times. While there was talk about dwindling Black Sea supplies and the possibility of export controls in Ukraine, the overall volume of shipments exceeded earlier expectations and continued to curb demand from other exporters. But values were underpinned by worries about unfavourable crop weather in a number of countries, including for this year s harvests in Argentina and Australia, as well as for 2013 crops in the US and the EU, and this contributed to a moderate rally at the end of the month. Wheat: Estimated exports to end-november Wheat: Major exporter stocks /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Australia Can/Arg Kazakhstan Ukraine Russia EU US 7

8 GMR November 2012 IGC Traders in the US, in particular, were disappointed by the pace of their exports and sluggish sales to date were reflected in a cut in the official export forecast. While this outweighed support from concerns about poor winter wheat crop conditions for much of the month, worries mounted at the end of November as conditions slumped to historic lows in Hard Red Winter areas, sparking sharp price gains. Hard Red Winter export quotations rose by US$4 m/m, to US$380 fob (Gulf), while Soft Red Winter gained US$12, to US$355 fob (Gulf). In the EU, solid export demand helped to underpin prices, but support also came from unfavourable conditions for autumn sown crops in some areas, including France and the UK. Dollar denominated grade 1 export prices in France rose by US$14, to US$358 fob (Rouen). Prices in Australia came under pressure frohe accelerating harvest, but the firmer global market saw values recover towards the end of the month, with Australian Premium White values up by US$5, to US$361 fob (South Australia). In Argentina, new crop prices gained US$8, to $348 fob (Up River), lifted by concerns about yield and quality downgrades caused by bad weather. While supplies for export in the Black Sea became tighter, particularly in Russia, the region continued to feature regularly in reported business. There was continued uncertainty about plans to introduce export controls in Ukraine, with the government indicating that further shipments will be allowed beyond the 5.5 cap previously agreed with traders. Wheat: export prices* November 2011 November 2012 DURUM Reduced crops in Kazakhstan and Morocco were mainly behind a 1.6 fall in world durum production in 2012/13, to 35.1m. While production increased in the US and Canada, global supplies are still estimated to have fallen to their lowest in ten years. Tight supplies are expected to constrain global consumption, which is forecast to slip by 3%, to Most of the drop reflects the poor harvests in Kazakhstan and Morocco and use in some other countries may rise. The forecast for world trade is unchanged from last month, at 7.1 (7.6m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Canada s durum shipments continued to progress strongly in the past month, the cumulative total reaching 1.4 by mid-november, 29% higher y/y. In light activity, the ICE nearby (December) futures contract was virtually unchanged m/m, at C$312 fob (delivered Saskatchewan/Alberta). Due to a number of cancellations of earlier purchases, cumulative US export commitments dropped slightly, to 331,000t, down by 2% compared with last year s already low level. Nevertheless, nominal US Lakes export quotations showed a small net gain, to US$369 fob. Amid limited supplies, there was only a small rise in the volume of EU export licences, dropping 28% behind last year s, at 432,000t. Export prices in France were broadly steady, at US$398 fob (La Pallice) US$ / t Durum : France export prices November 2011 November 2012 Durum, fob La Palice Wheat grade 1 milling, fob Rouen Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov-12 *US HRW/SRW (fob Gulf), US DNS (fob PNW), France (fob Rouen). 8

9 IGC GMR November 2012 COARSE GRAINS MAIZE (CORN) SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 The northern hemisphere harvest is almost complete, with fairly sharp y/y declines in output in the US, Ukraine and EU. China s crop will be larger, but quality remains a concern. Brazil s crop forecast is trimmed from October, but total production in the southern hemisphere is still expected to reach a new record. Smaller world supplies will cap feed and industrial demand, with total use forecast to decline for the first time in 19 years Stocks will be very tight in 2012/13, especially in the four major exporters, where carryovers may fall to a 16-year low. slightly due to dryness in Ontario, the key producing province. Following upward revisions for Bulgaria and France, the crop estimate for the EU is increased by 0.4, to 53.6m. This is still a 19% reduction y/y, as yields in south-eastern Europe, notably in Hungary and Romania, were slashed by hot and dry weather. In Ukraine, production has been revised higher by 1 this month, but, despite a 20% increase in the area, is still forecast 12% lower than in 2011/12, at 20.0m. While yields have been raised slightly, they remain below average. Production in China is placed at 198.0, up 3% y/y, due to increased plantings and higher yields. In contrast, India s crop is seen 15% lower than in 2011/12, at 18.0, as below-normal monsoon rains reduced plantings. Maize: Southern hemisphere major producers South Africa Argentina Brazil Maize: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Jul/Jun 94 Production The 2012/13 world maize production forecast is kept unchanged at 830, after crop upgrades for the EU and the CIS were offset by reduced prospects in Mexico, Brazil and the Philippines. Despite an increase in area, to a record 171.1m ha (169.0m), this season s output will be down 5.3% y/y, due to lower yields 2. In the US, with the harvesting completed earlier than usual, the output estimate is increased by 0.4 from last month, to 272.4m (313.9m). This is the smallest crop since 2006, as yields fell to just 7.7t/ha (9.2t/ha), the lowest since An increase in harvested area, estimated at 1.4m ha (1.2m), has lifted Canada s production by 8% to 11.6, although yields decreased 2 For area table see: /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) In the southern hemisphere, the combined maize output in the three key producing countries is likely to set a new record, projected at 110.0, up 4.3m frohe previous season. Drier weather has been welcome in the previously wet central and north-eastern regions of Argentina, but planting has lagged behind last year, with 55% (68%) completed by mid-november. The planted area is forecast 20% below the 2011/12 season, at 4.0m ha. Nevertheless, higher yields are expected to boost production to 26.0, up 24% y/y. In Brazil, planting of the first (summer) crop is nearly complete in the centre-south region, interrupted by heavy rains in some areas. The total area forecast is reduced by 0.2m ha from previously, to 15.8m (15.2m), as delays in soyabeans development may affect the second crop area, to be planted from January to mid- March. As a result, the crop projection is reduced by 1.0, to 71.0m (73.0m), still the second highest ever. In South Africa, planting continued in central and eastern areas under favourable conditions, with soil moisture reported as adequate, while sowing in western regions typically starts in December and early January. Production is forecast to increase to 13.0 (11.7m) on expectations of an expansion in area. 9

10 GMR November 2012 IGC Consumption At 849, the forecast for world consumption in 2012/13 is up by 1m compared to a month ago. Although world demand for meat and industrial products remains quite robust, overall use is forecast to decline by nearly 3% due to the unusually sharp drop in supplies, caused mainly by droughts in the northern hemisphere. Maize: World supply and demand Argentina and Ukraine are typically relatively small, and are forecast at 0.9 and 1.2m for 2012/13, compared to recent averages of 2.0m and 1.0m respectively Maize: Major exporter stocks 5-year ave. 2011/12 (est) 2012/13 (f'cast) < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > US Brazil Argentina Ukraine /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US Global feed demand is forecast at 476, unchanged from November and down 12m y/y. With smaller crops limiting on-farm use, EU feed consumption is expected to fall to 45.8 (50.0m). US feed/residual use is also likely to be sharply lower, with high prices, limited supplies and falling meat production expected to cap use at around (115.5m). Consumption is set to increase in some other markets, including China, Brazil, Egypt and Iran, but not by enough to offset reductions elsewhere. World industrial consumption is forecast 1 higher than last month, at 240 (250m), reflecting changes in assumed use in the EU, US and Canada. Due to improved price competitiveness versus wheat, there are signs that some processors in the EU may use more maize as an ethanol feedstock. In line with increased official estimates of maize used for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and starch, US industrial use is forecast 0.5 higher m/m, at 143.3m (157.7m). Stocks End season inventories for 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are forecast to drop by 18, to a six year low of 116m. This is 1 lower than last month s estimate due to a smaller projection for Brazil. A particularly steep decline is expected in the US, where closing stocks are forecast at 16.5, which would be less than half of the recent five-year average of 36.2m and equivalent to 6% of disappearance. Aggregate stocks in the four major exporters are forecast at a 16- year low of This includes 9.6 in Brazil, where ending stocks have grown with larger crops in recent years, averaging around 7.7m. Closing stocks in 0 Update: The US Renewable Fuel Standard On 16 November, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it had denied a request from several state governors and livestock industry associations to waive the national volume requirements for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The RFS requires the blending of 57.5bn litres of renewable fuel in transportation fuels in 2012, with maize-based ethanol limited to 50.0bn. The mandated minimum increases to 62.7bn litres in 2013, including 52.2bn from maize ethanol. The EPA is authorised to grant a waiver request if it is determined that implementation of the RFS mandate would severely harhe economy of a state or region of the US. The agency provided a notice of receipt of the waiver requests on 30 August, opening a public comment period which closed on 11 October, with nearly 30,000 comments submitted, the majority of which were in support of a waiver. After conducting several economic analyses, including some in conjunction with the USDA and the Department of Energy (DOE), it was concluded that a waiver was highly unlikely to have a significant impact on ethanol production or use in 2012/13 and would therefore have little or no impact on maize, food, or fuel prices. With Congressional requirements for a waiver therefore not met, the request was denied 3. In practice, the drawdown of ethanol stocks and the use of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) means that physical blending is likely to fall below the mandated minimum in For the 2012/13 US marketing year, some maize is forecast to be used by the sector, enough to produce approximately 47.5bn litres of ethanol. 3 For more information, see: 10

11 IGC GMR November 2012 Maize: Seasonality of the main exporters While the US has long been the dominant world exporter, sometimes accounting for more than 60% of total trade, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine have provided increasingly stiff competition in recent years. This trend will intensify in 2012/13, with the US market share likely to fall to an historic low Major exporters: Monthly shipments monthly % of Jul/Jun total Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Argentina US Brazil Helped by large availabilities from a bumper second (winter) 2011/12 crop, Brazil has shipped record amounts of maize between August and October. With solid overseas demand, large exports are expected to be maintained in the coming months but, with supplies becoming tighter, and with new crop soyabeans expected to take priority at ports, activity will likely slow in the first part of There is also a strong seasonal bias to Argentina s monthly exports, which typically peak early in the Mar/Feb marketing year, before gradually tapering off over the remaining months. With Ukraine only exporting very large amounts in the most recent years, trends in seasonality are only just emerging. However, exports do tend to rise following harvest and in March, after a midwinter pause, before trending lower over the rest of the year US export commitments MY commitments (2 nd week Nov) Total MY Exports In contrast, there is much less seasonality to US exports, with monthly shipments generally maintaining a steady monthly pace. However, the situation in 2012/13 suggests that there could be some potential for US exports to accelerate early next year. While export sales have recently been very sluggish, offers from Brazil for early-2013 shipment remain thin and, with prices showing more convergence, and much of Ukraine s surplus likely to be committed to the EU, demand for US supplies is expected to increase. Trade Global trade is forecast to decline by 3% y/y to 93.8 in 2012/13 (Jul/Jun), assuming that high world prices and improved local availabilities will reduce buying from China and Mexico. However, with import demand expected to be strong in the EU and parts of North Africa and Near East Asia, overall trade will be higher than average. Following confirmation of strong early season imports in some countries, including Brazil, the US and Iran, the forecast is increased by 1.1 from last month. The US export forecast for 2012/13 (Sep/Aug) is unchanged from last month, with shipments seen at 29.5 (39.2m), a 38-year low. Brazil has already shipped 12.0 in the first eight months of its local (Mar/Feb) marketing year. Although the pace of exports may decline after the turn of the year, total shipments are forecast 1.5 higher than before, at 19.0m (8.4m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS World export prices moved higher during November, with the IGC GOI maize sub-index up by 7% m/m. US values were lifted by strong cash markets and revived export hopes, while prices in South America rallied on tightening old crop supplies and adverse planting weather. Trading in US futures was two-sided. With few changes to fundamentals and the Midwest harvest wrapping up early, futures were initially pulled lower by sluggish export sales and spillover from other markets. However, an improvement in overseas demand, combined with rebounding wheat and soyabeans, saw futures strengthen in the second part of the month. Stronger cash markets, linked to potential river barge freight restrictions, and news that the EPA had denied requests for a temporary waiver of the RFS also underpinned, with the spot December contract up 3% m/m. With Gulf premiums sharply higher, nearby export prices were up by almost 6%, at around US$336 fob % 46% 55% 37% 36% 38% 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 f'cast At US$307 fob, nominal old crop Up River prices in Argentina were around 9% higher m/m. However, there were very few available export licences available and most activity was for new crop positions, priced at around US$300 fob, March. Strong export demand and tighter port supplies lifted Paranagua prices in Brazil. At around $307 fob, prices traded at a narrower discount to the US than in recent months. 11

12 GMR November 2012 IGC Maize: export prices* November 2011 November 2012 the EU and Argentina. Production is expected to decrease by 3% y/y, reflecting sharply lower output in the CIS and Australia, partly countered by better crops in the EU, North America and Argentina. 4 Following upward revisions for Romania and Spain, the crop estimate for the EU has been further increased by 0.4, to 54.4m, a 5% rise y/y, owing to increased plantings and slightly higher yields. Improved production was reported in France, Germany, Denmark and Poland, while output decreased in Spain and Romania. Malting barley will account for around 22% of this year s crop, up slightly on a year ago. BARLEY SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 In the CIS, production fell by one-fifth, due to much lower yields. In Russia, the crop estimate is unchanged at 14.0, a decrease of 17% y/y as yields were slashed by the drought across southern regions. Output in Ukraine also fell sharply due to adverse weather conditions, to 6.5 (9.1m), the lowest since 2007, with yields reported at about 1.9 t/ha, down 24% y/y. Barley: Production in the CIS Despite expected larger crops in the EU and Argentina, world production is forecast to fall by 3% due to difficulties in the CIS and Australia. Tight availabilities will cap global demand, with feed use forecast to be at its lowest in more than 40 years. End-season stocks are forecast to decline for a third consecutive year, with especially tight carryovers in the eight major exporters. Global trade is forecast 13% down from last year, but should still be slightly above average. Barley: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Jul/Jun, excl. trade in malt Production The 2012/13 barley crop is estimated 0.4 higher than previously, at 130.7m (134.4), on higher projections for After two consecutive poor years, farmers in Canada harvested a larger crop of 8.6, up 11% y/y due to increased plantings, but still below the five-year average of 9.5m. Malting barley output is expected to be below average due to lower test weight, poor germination and increased protein content. Much better planting conditions in North Dakota boosted production in the US to 4.8 (3.4m), the highest in three years. In Australia, where harvesting is underway, rains delayed fieldwork in New South Wales and Queensland, while drier weather benefited crop maturation in South Australia and northern Victoria. Yields, however, are projected significantly lower than in 2011/12 due to earlier dry conditions in Western Australia, and parts of New South Wales and Queensland. As a result, production is forecast at 7.0, a decline of 19% y/y. Responding to solid demand and prices, farmers in Argentina continued to expand area planted to barley, 4 For the area table see: 12

13 IGC GMR November 2012 which is forecast one-third higher than a year ago, at about 1.6m ha, boosting production to 5.7 (4.1m). Barley: Major exporters (Jul/Jun) Consumption With barley supplies expected to be down 3% y/y and 7% below the recent five-year average, global consumption is forecast to fall to (135.6m). The forecast is up by 1.6 from October, as upwardly revised projections for feed use in the EU and Iran offset reductions elsewhere, including in Ukraine, Canada and Argentina. Despite this month s increase, overall demand is forecast at a 13-year low, with feed use placed at 86.6 (90.0m), the lowest in more than four decades year ave. 2011/12 (est) 2012/13 (f'cast) Stocks World carryovers are expected to be very tight at the end of 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years). Owing to this month s increased use figure and, with revisions to EU consumption estimates for 2010/11 and 2011/12 resulting in a smaller carry-in, global closing stocks are forecast 3.3 lower than last month, at 24.3m (25.9m). This would be the lowest since 2007/08, when stocks dipped to The situation in the world s eight leading exporters is especially tight, with aggregate carryovers are forecast at a 17-year low of 13.4 (15.1m). 0 Argentina Australia EU Ukraine Russia Canada Argentina is on track to become the world s largest barley exporter in 2012/13, with Jul/Jun shipments forecast at 4.1 (3.2m). Given the smaller crop currently being harvested, exports by Australia may be limited to 3.8 (5.8m). Following a strong pace of shipments to date, the EU export forecast is lifted by 0.6, to 3.4m (3.1m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Barley: World supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > Although they were sometimes thinly traded, world feed barley markets were mostly firmer during November. At US$321 fob (Rouen), EU (France) prices moved higher on support from gains in wheat and light producer selling. Strong internal feed demand also underpinned, especially in Germany. Black Sea quotations firmed on slow country movement. Prices of US$315 fob were considered nominal at times, with most exporters focused on shipping other grains due to the potential for better margins in selling wheat and maize Feed barley: export prices November 2011 November /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US Trade Barley trade (excluding malt) in 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) is forecast to decline by 2.7 y/y, to 17.6m. Reflecting this year s better pasture conditions, a recent build-up in stocks and some substitution for alternative feeds, imports by Saudi Arabia, the world s leading buyer, are forecast to drop to 7.0 (8.3m). Elsewhere in Near East Asia, imports by Syria are unlikely to exceed 0.2 (0.3m), but, in light of strong purchases in recent months, the forecast for shipments to Iran is up 0.4 m/m, at 1.0m (1.2m). After last year s spike in demand for imported malting supplies, shipments to the EU are expected to fall back to 0.2 (0.6m). New crop feed quotations in Argentina (Up River) increased to around US$297, up US$7 m/m. Due to wet weather and flooding, there remained much uncertainty about the size and quality of the crop and trading was 13

14 GMR November 2012 IGC therefore light. Despite some concerns about rain delays, new crop harvesting in Australia gathered pace, contributing to a slight seasonal downturn in prices. Owing to this year s large availabilities, spring malting prices in the EU (France) maintained a smaller than average premiuo feed values. With spring barley priced only US$10 fob above feed, there were reports of some malting quality grain being sold into feed channels. In contrast, worries about excessive rains saw the new crop malting premium in Argentina widen to around US$40. unusually low level. World food use is placed at 27.2, up 3% y/y. Owing to a slightly improved availabilities, carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are forecast to increase slightly to 1.9 (1.8m). 70 Sorghum: Global supply and demand 10 SORGHUM 60 SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 World sorghum consumption is forecast to rise by 3.5% y/y in 2012/13, driven by a rebound in feed use frohe previous year s unusually low level < Consumption < Production Stocks > 5 Global trade is forecast to recover to 6.0 amid higher demand frohe EU, Japan and Mexico /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) 0 Sorghum: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Jul/Jun World trade in 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) is forecast to recover to 6.0, a y/y increase of almost 30%, with strong import demand supported by a rebound in global availabilities. Mexico s imports are projected to rise to 1.8 (1.4m) on reduced domestic output, while imports by Japan are also seen slightly higher, at 1.5 (1.3m). Tight feed grain supplies are driving EU imports, expected to reach 0.3, compared to less than 0.1m in the previous year. Ample supplies in Argentina are forecast to lift exports to 2.6, an increase of almost 60% y/y. However, overall trade growth will be restricted by tight supplies in the US, with 2012/13 marketing year (Sep/Aug) exports forecast at 2.5 (1.6m). Although higher than 2011/12, they remain well below the previous five-year average of 4.1. Sorghum: Global trade by importer (Jul/Jun) World sorghum production for 2012/13 is estimated at 59.2m (55.9m), as a lower crop in Mexico is offset by an increased production forecast for Argentina. Year-onyear, global output is expected to rise by some 6%, owing to higher yields, albeit from a poor performance last year. Harvesting is nearly complete in the US, ahead of both last year and the five-year average pace. Production is estimated to be 20% higher than in 2011/12, at 6.5, up 0.1m from October s forecast. The global consumption forecast for 2012/13 is unchanged from last month, at 59.2, and up by 3.5% y/y. Upward revisions to feed use projections for the US and Argentina are offset by a reduction for Mexico. Overall, feed consumption is expected to rise by 7% y/y, to 24.6, rebounding frohe previous year s /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 f'cast Other EU Japan Mexico 14

15 IGC GMR November 2012 RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS The past month s gains in US sorghum export quotations were mostly linked to strength in maize. However, there was additional underpinning from higher basis levels, lifted by concerns that low water levels on the Mississippi River could restrict movement to Gulf ports. Overall, prices were up by US$21, to US$325 fob (Gulf). In Australia, recent adverse weather in key growing areas, including parts of Queensland and New South Wales, was not expected to have a significant impact on the crop. Nevertheless, new crop values increased moderately, to US$311 fob, remaining at historically high levels. Sorghum: export prices November 2011 November 2012 The 2012/13 world oats production forecast is unchanged from last month, at 21.9m (23.1m). The 5% y/y decline is mainly attributed to a smaller crop in Russia, placed at 4.3 (5.3m), as yields have been slashed by the drought. In the US, improved yields boosted production by 13% y/y to 0.9 (0.8m). Production in the EU, estimated at 7.9, is little changed from last season. World oats consumption in 2012/2013 is projected at 22.4, representing a fall of nearly 4% y/y as smaller outturns in Russia and, to a lesser extent, Australia restrict availabilities, especially for feeding. Global feed use is forecast to contract to 15.1 (15.8m). As a result of reduced supplies, carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are expected to fall to 3.4 (3.9m), a seven-year low. The forecast for world trade in 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) is similar to the previous year, including 1.6 to the US, the largest importer. Mexico s imports are expected to match the previous year s record of 110,000t, mainly linked to strong demand for breakfast cereals and snack bars, most of which is sourced from Australia and Chile. At 2.3 (Aug/Jul), Canada will remain the largest exporter. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS In a period of two-sided activity, US (CME) oats futures declined by a net 4% m/m. Despite underpinning from a tight global supply outlook, spreading into deferred contracts weighed on the nearby position. OATS SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 With reduced availabilities in Russia and Australia, global oats consumption in 2012/13 is forecast down 4% y/y. 2012/13 closing stocks are expected to decline to 3.4, the lowest level in seven years Oats: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks RYE SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Chiefly due to improved availabilities in the EU, global rye consumption is forecast to recover to 15.0 in 2012/13. World trade is projected to decline y/y owing to unusually high end of marketing year shipments in 2011/12. The estimate for world rye production in 2012/13 is lifted by 0.5 this month, to 15.1m (13.8m), following an upward revision for the EU. The 9% increase in global output is due to both a larger area and higher yields. The EU crop, placed at 8.5 (6.9m), has rebounded after two poor years, with the biggest rise in Germany, where production increased by 52% to 3.8m. Due to the drought, production in Russia, one of the world s major producers, fell by 17% y/y, to 2.5. Trade a) a) Jul/Jun 15

16 GMR November 2012 IGC Rye: Production Global carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are expected to be broadly unchanged frohe previous year, at /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Other Belarus Russia The global rye consumption forecast for 2012/13 is lifted by 0.3 frohe previous month, to 15.0m, mainly driven by improved availabilities in the EU. The total is up by around 3% on the previous year. Within the total, feed use accounts for around 45%, food use for about 37%, while industrial use, mainly driven by the bioethanol industry in the EU (Germany), stands at close to 15%. Rye: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a)jul/jun 0.4 EU World trade in 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) is forecast at 375,000t, compared to the previous year s 452,000t, with the decline mainly linked to large shipments from Russia at the end of 2011/12. Given improved domestic availabilities, imports by the EU are forecast to decline to just 50,000t (210,000t), while those by the US are seen broadly unchanged at 150,000t. Imports by Japan are seen to rebound to 120,000t (51,000t) from last year s unusually low level. Canada will likely resume its position as the largest exporter of this grain, at 150,000t (152,000t), followed by the EU, with shipments seen at 100,000t (60,000t). Exports by Russia are forecast to drop to 50,000t (205,000t) Rye: World supply and demand < Consumption < Production Stocks > 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Domestic rye values in the EU (Germany) were moderately higher, at around 231 (US$299), up 7 over the month. Even though markets were generally quiet, a recent increase in feed demand supported prices

17 IGC GMR November 2012 RICE SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 At 464 (463m), world rice production is forecast marginally lower than last month, but is still a record, as rises in China and elsewhere more than offset reduced output in India. Global consumption is expected to rise by 2%, to a record 466, including expanded use in the world s main consumers, China and India. The world 2012/13 carryover is set to decline slightly, but supplies will remain comfortable, especially in the major exporters. Global trade in calendar 2013 is projected to fall by 4% frohe current year s record on reduced shipments to China and Nigeria. y/y, at 7.9, but markedly below the 2011 high, as the attractiveness of alternative crops, particularly soyabeans amid tight world supplies, leads to reduced paddy plantings. Along with marginal increases elsewhere, total rice production in the Americas is tentatively forecast to rise by 4%, to 23.7, but would still be below the 2010/11 high and average. The projection for Africa is maintained at 17.3 (16.3m), including increases in the key producers of Egypt and Nigeria. Efforts to lift productivity and output in the region are likely to continue, an example being the government of Nigeria s recently proposed hike in brown and polished rice import duties Rice: Supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > Rice: Supply and demand summary (milled basis) 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use Closing stocks Trade a) a) Jan/Dec Production At 464 (463m), world rice production in 2012/13 is projected marginally lower than before, but, if achieved, would still be a record. Forecast output in Far East Asia is placed at 417, only fractionally below the previous year s all-time high as larger outturns in some countries, including China and Thailand, mostly compensate for a reduction in India. Heavy monsoon rains in the latter stages of the summer season enabled India s kharif rice plantings to progress well, while precipitation was also beneficial for the sowing of winter-planted (rabi) crops, including rice. After some initial weather-related delays, seeding operations picked up and were complete on 64,000ha by mid-november, in line with one year earlier. Assuming an above-average crop partially compensates for this year s smaller main outturn, total rice production in 2012/13 is projected at 99.8, a fall of 4% y/y, but still the second largest on record. In the US, where harvesting is now complete, production is officially estimated to have risen by 8%, to 6.3, mainly resulting from record yields. Elsewhere in the Americas, Brazil s crop is expected to be unchanged /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam Consumption Boosted by increases in Asia, world rice use in 2012/13 is forecast to expand to a record 466 (457m). While output in India is expected to fall by nearly 5, ample supplies should still enable increased consumption, to 94.3 (92.5m). In China, consumption is also forecast to expand to an all-time high, in line with a bigger outturn, while further modest increases are expected elsewhere in Asia, including Bangladesh and the Philippines. Total rice use in the Americas is expected to recover to 23.3 (22.4m), boosted, in particular, by a rise in US consumption, officially seen expanding by 16% from last year s unusually low level, to 4.0m, due to a larger crop. In sub-saharan Africa, increased consumption in key markets, including Ghana and Côte d Ivoire, will underpin expanded rice use, to 23.1 (22.8m). Stocks Global rice supplies are expected to remain comfortable in 2012/13, with the world carryover (aggregate of respective local marketing years) forecast to decline only marginally, to (105.2m). Following the previous year s steep rise, major exporters stocks are expected to expand further, albeit slightly, to a record 37.4 (36.2m). Within this, Thailand s ending stocks are projected to increase, to 12.0 (9.5m), as state paddy intervention purchasing continues, more than offsetting an 8% fall in India s end-season carryovers, to 21.7m

18 GMR November 2012 IGC Market Focus: China s 2012 rice imports China has been an unusually large rice importer this year. According to official customs data, imports totalled approximately 2.0 in the first ten months, significantly above average and a more than threefold increase on the same period in Typically, China s domestic needs are almost entirely met from locally-produced rice, with annual imports relatively small and mainly comprising high-quality, fragrant varieties sourced from Thailand. During the previous five years, imports averaged 450,000t, equivalent to just 0.3% of consumption. This is in marked contrast to other grains and oilseeds, and particularly soyabeans for which trade is vitally important in meeting local requirements Rice: China s rice imports by origin Others Pakistan Vietnam Thailand significantly larger than normal, while those from Thailand were markedly smaller. Based on their pace to date, full calendar year imports are forecast to total up to 2.5, not only representing a heavy rise on the previous year and average, but also making China the world s second largest importer, only marginally behind Nigeria. Furthermore, China s substantial purchases appear to have prevented what would have been a more acute fall in shipments to Far East Asia, and potentially a contraction in world trade. An analysis of domestic and international price trends provides some explanation for China s large imports. While the precise reasons remain unclear, domestic early long-grain milled rice prices (Guangzhou, delivered basis) have generally trended up in the past two years perhaps indicating that local availabilities are somewhat tighter than supply and demand data suggest. While domestic prices currently carry a premium over Thailand s white rice fob values, ongoing paddy intervention buying by the Thai government has supported prices, ensuring a narrow spread and discouraging purchases by China. Rice: Domestic vs. international (fob) prices US$ / t As official data on China s rice inventories are not publicly available, stock estimates and forecasts are potentially subject to a wide margin of error. The IGC estimates 2011/12 end-season carryovers at about 45m t, or more than two-fifths of the world total. Against this backdrop, and given China is the world s largest rice producer, it is surprising that its imports have been so large in Rice: China s rice imports 2012 vs (January-October) 000 t Five-year Change Average * y/y Vietnam , ,209 Pakistan Thailand Others TOTAL , ,478 * Full calendar years ( ) In contrast to the more normal pattern of buying fragrant varieties, this year s rice imports have mostly been lower-quality broken grades, secured mainly from Vietnam. Purchases from Pakistan have also been Jan-11 Mar-11 China * Thailand, 5% bkn ** Vietnam, 5% bkn ** May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 * Early long-grain milled prices (Guangzhou), ** bkn - broken Nov-11 In contrast, Vietnamese broken rice for export is priced at a substantial discount to domestic values in China. In mid-november, it stood at about US$164/t compared to just US$16/t a year earlier. Along with comparable discounts at other origins, notably Pakistan, and even taking into account other charges associated with imports, this provides some explanation for why world market purchases have been attractive for China in Projected imports by China for 2013 are, at this stage, highly tentative, especially in light of this year s big volumes. While the price spread between domestic and imported rice is likely to favour imports, they are expected to fall slightly, although they will likely remain considerably above average. Nevertheless, as events have highlighted, China could well turn to the world market for big quantities at any time in future, to take advantage of favourable price differentials. Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 18

19 IGC GMR November 2012 Trade World rice trade in 2012 is forecast 1.2 higher than before, at a record 37.5 (35.9m), reflecting larger than anticipated purchases by China (see Market Focus), and increases for others, notably Indonesia and Nigeria. However, global trade is projected to fall by 4% in 2013 on reduced deliveries to key markets. Shipments to Far East Asia are forecast to fall by 8% in 2013, to 10.4, but would still be well above average. China s future import needs remain uncertain. A decline frohis year s high level is forecast, but at 1.6 (2.5m), this would still be double the recent average. Rice: Imports by selected countries in Far East Asia 7 (milled basis) (f'cast) Bangladesh Philippines Indonesia China Indonesia s recent purchases from Vietnam and India, coupled with the signing of a longer-term agreement on future supplies with the former, indicate that the country will likely maintain an appreciable presence in the world market. Accordingly, only a modest decline in imports is expected in At 1.6, they will be only 0.2m lower than the forecast for the current year. While the Philippines officially expects to purchase only nominal quantities next year, with recent reports suggesting these could be as small as 150,000t, the IGC projection is, by contrast, placed much higher, at 1.3 (1.1m), owing to very tight domestic supplies and the consequent need to maintain ample inventories. Despite an upward revision, to 10.5, shipments to sub-saharan Africa will still be 7% smaller y/y in 2013, mainly on expectations of a significant fall in deliveries to Nigeria, which is expected to be the world s largest buyer in Continued efforts to increase domestic production and reduce reliance on world market purchases, including, for example, the government s proposed hike in import duties in 2013, is behind the anticipated fall in imports of around one-fifth, to 2.3. The forecast for India s rice exports for the current calendar year is lifted by 1.2, to 9.6m, double the previous year s volume. Despite logistical difficulties at ports, India s shipments have progressed at an exceptional pace, including heavy non-basmati sales to sub-saharan African markets in particular. Nevertheless, the projection for exports in 2013 is maintained at 6.9, the steep near-30% y/y fall owing to expected stiffer competition from Thailand. With inventories boosted by continued intervention buying, Thailand s export availabilities could potentially be huge. Assuming that a portion of its stocks are successfully liquidated, shipments are forecast to expand by almost one-quarter, to 8.0. The forecast for Vietnam s shipments in 2012 is again lifted slightly to a record 7.6 (7.1m), to reflect higher than expected sales to China. They are likely to fall next year, to 7.0m t, but that would still be above-average. Elsewhere, sales by Pakistan and the US are set to be littlechanged y/y, at 4.0 and 3.4m, respectively. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Asian white rice markets mostly weakened during November, the daily IGC GOI sub-index easing to a three-month low, as generally limited activity weighed on sentiment, especially in Vietnam. Increased supplies from main crop harvests added pressure in South Asia. Export quotations in Vietnam initially moved higher, buoyed by fresh sales to Indonesia, but gains were reversed later in the month in quieter activity. News that China and West African buyers had secured supplies from Myanmar at a marked discount raised concerns about export prospects, while efforts by exporters to release stocks added pressure. In Thailand, white rice export values were steady to marginally weaker. Aside frohe sale of 85,000t rice to Iraq, buying interest remained thin, outweighing support from government main crop paddy intervention buying. Relatively steeper declines were noted in the parboiled market. After initial support from expectations of stronger demand from Nigerian importers ahead of a potential hike in import duties, prices eased markedly when purchases failed to materialise US$ / t Thai 100% Grade B Thai 5% Broken Viet 5% Broken Pakistan IRRI 25% 30-Nov Dec-11 Rice: export prices November 2011 November Jan Feb Mar Apr May-12 Export prices in South Asia weakened on improved new crop availabilities. In India, export interest slowed as buyers waited for easing of port congestion before placing orders, while the weaker domestic currency also weighed on dollar-denominated values. 13-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct Nov

20 GMR November 2012 IGC OILSEEDS SOYABEANS SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Projected world soyabean output in 2012/13 is lifted by 3, to 267m, to reflect better US yields. However, the 12% y/y rise is centred on expectations for record crops in South America. A larger global crush will underpin the forecast 5% expansion in world consumption, including increases in China, Argentina and Brazil. World ending stocks are forecast to recover, led by inventory accumulation in major exporters. Global imports are set to expand by 5% y/y, mainly on larger shipments to China. Soyabeans: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Crush Feed Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Oct/Sep In Argentina, heavy rains and flooding in November compromised field operations and raised concerns about yield potential, particularly in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba and Sante Fé. With conditions expected to improve, seeding should accelerate. Assuming a 4% rise in sowings, and much-improved productivity, output is projected to rise by one-third frohe previous year s drought-affected outturn, to Soyabeans: Plantings in Brazil, selected states * m ha 11/12 12/13 % Chg (f'cast) y/y Mato Grosso Paraná Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minais Gerais Others TOTAL * Source: CONAB, November 2012; refers to average of forecast range for 2012/13. Figures are rounded. In the US, where harvesting is complete, the official production forecast was raised for the second consecutive month, by 3.1, to 80.9m (84.2m). With estimates of planted and harvested areas maintained, the higher crop forecast is due to better than anticipated yields. Nevertheless, US productivity is still expected to fall for the third successive year, to 7% below average and the lowest in nine years, reflecting this year s difficult growing conditions. 3.1 t/ha Soyabeans: Average US yields 2.9 Production The projection for world soyabean output in 2012/13 is raised by 3, to a record 267m, reflecting better than anticipated US yields. Nevertheless, as production there is still likely to decline, the 12% y/y rise in global output is centred on expected bumper crops in South America. After initial delays due to dryness in central areas of Brazil, notably in Matto Grosso, the largest producing state, recent precipitation allowed plantings to advance, with farmers also reseeding some fields. Nevertheless, southern parts, particularly Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, remained dry and more rains are required to aid crop development. Assuming that weather patterns remain favourable, and the forecast 7% expansion of plantings is realised, output in 2012/13 is tentatively projected to recover strongly, by one-fifth, to /93 96/97 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 (f'cast) Consumption Supported by larger crops and improved supplies, world consumption is projected to rise by 5% y/y in 2012/13, to a record 263. The expansion will be concentrated in a larger global crush, increasing to an all-time high of 232 (223m). 20

21 IGC GMR November 2012 Total use in China is expected to rise by 7%, to 75.1, as oilseed processors crush more soyabeans to meet the demands of feed and food sectors. Despite a slight upward revision, US consumption is still projected to decline by 6%, to a nine-year low of However, this will be more than offset by increases elsewhere in the Americas, notably in Argentina and Brazil, where large outturns are set to boost availabilities and use. Although the projection for US exports in 2012/13 is raised slightly, total shipments are still expected to fall y/y, albeit only slightly, to 36.6 (37.1m). This implies that the pace of exports will slow markedly as South American new crop supplies become available next year. Brazil s shipments in 2013/14 (Feb/Jan) are projected to rise by 13%, to 36.8, while Argentina s exports in the year ending March 2014 are expected to nearly double, to 12.5m Soyabeans: World supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > SOYAMEAL World soyameal trade in 2012/13 (Oct/Sep) is forecast to increase by 4% y/y, to a record Tight supplies of alternative feed ingredients are expected to lift EU import requirements, forecast to rise by 7%, to 23.0, while deliveries to Far East Asia are projected in line with the previous year, at 16.9m. Reduced imports by Vietnam, owing to the expansion of its domestic crush capacity, are expected to be offset by larger shipments to Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand, to meet expanding animal feed demand /05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Brazil, US Stocks The forecast for world ending stocks in 2012/13 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is lifted slightly, to 27.6, a 17% y/y rise, mostly reflecting a higher figure for China. Major exporters inventories, which are more relevant for the world market, are projected to rise by around 50%, to Stock accumulation in Argentina and Brazil during their respective 2013/14 marketing years is expected to more than compensate for a contraction in the US end-august 2013 carryover. Trade The forecast for global trade in 2012/13 (Oct/Sep) is lifted slightly, to a record 96.8 (92.1m). Both the upward revision and projected y/y growth of 5% are due to Far East Asia. Deliveries there are set to expand to an all-time high of 72.9 (68.9m), three-quarters of the world total. This is mostly linked to a further expansion in shipments to China, seen rising by 7% y/y, to 61.0, driven by expanding demand for soyabean products from both the feed and food sectors. Despite recent reports of the cancellation of earlier purchases frohe US, China has bought heavily from that origin since the start of the Sep/Aug US marketing year. As at 15 November, cumulative US marketing year commitments for delivery to China totalled 16.8, up 14% y/y. Including sales to other key markets in Asia and the EU, total US commitments totalled 27.0 (20.8m). 0 Based on a higher official US soyabean crop forecast, availabilities for crushing are larger than previously expected. Accordingly, projected 2012/13 soyameal exports are lifted by 0.4, to 7.2m, but this would still be the lowest level since 2004/05 and represent a y/y fall of about 19%. However, this should be more than offset by Argentina s larger sales, assuming that a record crop boosts crush volumes. At 28.0, shipments are set to climb by 17%. Brazil s exports are also likely to be maintained at high levels, forecast at 14.8 (14.7m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS World soyabean markets weakened during November, the IGC GOI soyabeans sub-index posting a net decline of around 7% in two-sided activity, mainly as pressure from better than anticipated US yields and slow export demand outweighed support from South American crop worries. Despite some initial support from firm cash markets and technical strength, the release of the USDA s bearishlyinterpreted US supply and demand update on 9 November weighed heavily on market sentiment. Based on better than anticipated yields, the 2012/13 production forecast was raised for the second successive month, by 3.1, to 80.9m (84.2m), resulting in increased projections for exports and ending stocks. The recent slower pace of export sales added to the bearish tone, compounded by reports that Chinese buyers had cancelled the purchase of US supplies owing to the weaker market. After touching a five-month low around mid-month, futures partly recovered on renewed concerns about crop prospects in Argentina and Brazil as adverse conditions delayed fieldwork and compromised yield potential. Also providing underpinning at times were 21

22 GMR November 2012 IGC prospects for restrictions on Mississippi barge movements due to low water levels, together with gains in maize. Soyabeans: export prices November 2011 November 2012 RAPESEED/CANOLA SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Global rapeseed/canola production is forecast to decline by 2% y/y, to a four-year low of World use in 2012/13 is expected to fall by 4% y/y, to a three-year low, owing to tight supplies. With thin availabilities and high prices likely to discourage imports by key buyers, global trade is projected to contract by 15% y/y. Looking ahead to the 2013/14 crop, EU rapeseed plantings are tentatively forecast to rebound, encouraged by high prices, and led by Germany. Rapeseed/canola: Supply and demand summary 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Crush Feed Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) Oct/Sep Production At 58.9, the forecast for global rapeseed/canola output in 2012/13 is broadly unchanged representing a contraction of 2% y/y and a four-year low owing to smaller outturns in the world s key producers. In Canada, by far the largest exporter, output is expected to drop steeply, by 8% y/y, to This is despite a large expansion in plantings, and mainly results from heavily reduced yield potential in Western Canada due to poor weather. Given dry conditions, production in Australia is also likely to fall slightly, to 2.7 (2.8m), but, as with Canada, this would still be well above average. Consumption World rapeseed/canola use in 2012/13 is projected to contract by 4%, to 59.8, reflecting tight availabilities. In Canada, given the disappointing crop, consumption is expected to decline by 9%, to 6.7. The overall fall in use will be concentrated in a smaller crush, the largest component of demand, seen dropping to 57.3 (59.9m) Rapeseed/canola: Supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Australia and Canada Winter rapeseed planting for 2013/14 Looking ahead to 2013/14 crop prospects in the northern hemisphere, EU rapeseed plantings are tentatively projected to expand, as very tight world market supplies and high prices encourage farmers to seed a larger area. The most pronounced increase is likely to occur in Germany, typically the EU s largest producer. Based on a recent farmer survey, UFOP, a national industry association, forecast a 9% y/y expansion in winter sowings. Modest area increases are likely elsewhere in the region, including in Poland, Hungary and Romania

23 IGC GMR November 2012 Stocks The world 2012/13 carryover (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is projected to contract for the third consecutive year, by 23%, to just 3.4. Within the total, and underpinning world market strength, major exporters inventories are set to fall by around one-third, to just 0.7, including those in Canada at 0.5m (0.8m). Trade World rapeseed/canola trade in 2012/13 (Oct/Sep) is forecast to decline by 15% y/y, as thin availabilities and steep prices discourage purchases by key buyers. EU imports are forecast at 3.0 and, while this represents a y/y fall, they would still be well above average on account of a smaller crop and tight local availabilities. Elsewhere, deliveries to China are expected to fall, to 2.0 (2.5m), as oilseed processors buy alternatives, including soyabeans. Reflecting this year s disappointing outturn, Canada s exports are projected to decline to a five-year low of 7.2 (8.7m). Shipments by Australia are also forecast 12% lower y/y, at 2.2. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS After falling by mid-month under pressure from surplus tonnage and limited trading, dry bulk ocean freight rates bounced back in the second half of November. This was particularly noticeable in the grain carrying sectors, on the back of both improved commodity demand and tightening tonnage supply. As a result, the average of the Baltic indices of the three grain carrying sectors increased by 11% m/m, although it is still down 42% y/y. As the Capesize market registered a net decrease, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by a more modest 4% over the month. Average of dry bulk indices a), excluding capesize 2,000 1,750 1,500 Average Indices ICE (Winnpeg) canola futures also weakened, the nearby position declining by around 4% during November. After initially falling on spillover from heavy declines in soyabeans, the market was underpinned by good export interest and slow farmer selling, while this year s disappointing crop in Canada continued to provide underlying support. 1,250 1, Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Oct-12 a) Grain carrying sectors (Panamax, Supramax, Handysize) 27-Nov Nov The Atlantic Panamax market started the month under pressure from surplus tonnage and a low volume of enquiries. However, rates increased sharply from mid- November, underpinned by improved chartering activity and a tightening supply of vessels available near-term, notably on routes frohe US Gulf and South America. Transatlantic roundtrips increased to about US$8,950/day, up by 60% frohe previous month. New business included a cargo frohe Black Sea to the Egyptian Mediterranean at a daily rate of US$6,500. In the Pacific, the market continued to draw support from mineral shipments, particularly from Australia and Indonesia. A recent trip from Australia s east coast to China was reported at a firm US$8,500/day. Atlantic Supramax rates also increased on improved nearby demand. Grain business included a cargo from Argentina (the River Plate) to Morocco at US$20.50/t. In the Pacific, coal shipments from Indonesia to India continued to provide support, with rates reported at about US$12,000/day. A roundtrip between Australia and Singapore/Japan was fixed at a strong daily rate of US$9,500. Although, Capesize rates rebounded froheir initial decline in November, the sector saw a net decrease, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) retreating by 8% over the month due to insufficient mineral demand. 23

24 GMR November 2012 IGC NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS LATEST NATIONAL TRADE - RELATED MEASURES EGYPT: On 15 November 2012, GASC removed Ukraine from a list of approved wheat suppliers for 2013 after receiving official notification frohe government that exports would not be permitted beyond 1 December. However, on 20 November 2012, GASC received a formal request from Ukraine asking not to be removed frohe list of approved wheat suppliers, given that quantities were still available for export. EU: On 8 November 2012, the EU s Cereals Management Committee voted to extend the suspension of import duties for low/medium quality wheat and feed barley from end of December to the end of the 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) marketing year. INDONESIA: On 31 October 2012, Bulog, the state procurement agency, signed a memorandum of understanding to import 200,000t of rice from Vietnam by the end of this year. UKRAINE: On 31 October 2012, the Agriculture Ministry stated that the wheat export ban would not come into force on 15 November as previously reported. If stocks fell to low levels, the government would consider taking necessary measures. The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation reported that exports of 5.5 had been agreed with the government, while the Farm Ministry was said to have promised not to impose any export limits before 1 December. On 9 November 2012, the Ukraine Grain Association (UGA) received a verbal undertaking frohe Agriculture Ministry that up to 5.5 of wheat could be exported by 1 December when a ban was expected to be officially imposed. However, on 13 November 2012, the Prime Minister announced that wheat exports would not be halted, given ample stocks and favourable 2013 production prospects. On 23 November 2012, the Agriculture Minister stated that grain traders were preparing to halt milling wheat exports, with shipments approaching the previously agreed maximum of 5.5. On 28 November 2012, the Deputy Agriculture Minister declared that wheat exports had reached the previously discussed volume of 5.5 but, based on updated data on availabilities, were set to continue. On 29 November 2012, the UGA received a verbal undertaking frohe Agriculture Ministry that 5.8 of wheat exports would be permitted, 0.3 above the previously suggested limit. OTHER NATIONAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS CHINA: On 13 November 2012, the government announced that it would purchase domestic maize and soyabeans for state reserves at a higher price than the previous year, with a view to offsetting planting costs and boosting farmers incomes. Maize will be procured in the northeastern corn belt, at CNY2,100-CNY2,140/t (US$ ), up 7% y/y, while soyabeans will be bought at CNY4,600/t (US$740), a rise of almost 15% frohe previous year. On 19 November 2012, the government temporarily suspended auctions of soyabeans from state reserves due to the start of the new crop procurement season. INDIA: On 1 November 2012, the government stated that the 2012/13 (Jul/Jun) support price for wheat would be unchanged frohe previous season, at INR1,285/100kg (US$239/t). On 13 November 2012, the government approved the sale of 500,000t each of wheat and rice from government stocks through retail outlets, in an attempt to ease high domestic prices. On 16 November 2012, the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices stated its support for the government s reported plan to restrict procurement of food grains in some states to avoid potential storage problems and escalating operational costs. INDONESIA: On 21 November 2012, the Agriculture Ministry stated that a draft food law, due to be signed off by the president by the end of the year, was aimed at increasing self-sufficiency in a number of staple foods, including rice, soyabeans and maize. MEXICO: On 23 November 2012, the Agriculture Secretary stated that regulatory approval of planting genetically-modified maize on a commercial scale would be postponed until spring 2013, after the newly elected president has taken office. RUSSIA: On 26 October 2012, the Agriculture Ministry announced that, with effect from 6 November, sales from grain intervention stocks would be expanded to all regions, not just Siberia, the Urals and the Far East regions. Furthermore, the weekly sales limit would be increased by 20,000t, to 130,000t. SRI LANKA: On 9 November 2012, the government announced that, with effect for the next rice crop, which is expected to be harvested in March/April of 2013, the guaranteed minimum purchase price for paddy is to be lifted by 14% frohe previous year, to LKR32- LKR35/kg (US$245-US$265/t). 24

25 IGC GMR November 2012 THAILAND: On 13 November 2012, the Cabinet approved the government s proposal to create a rice cartel among main rice exporting nations of South East Asia. On 19 November 2012, the Commerce Minister announced plans to auction 1.1 of rice from state reserves by February 2013, including 600,000t of Hom Mali rice and 500,000t of white rice. US: On 16 November 2012, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) denied requests from several state governors for a waiver of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), finding no evidence that it would cause severe economic harm. For more information, please visit the following link: OTHER DEVELOPMENTS CHINA: On 23 November 2012, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) announced the launch of China s first dry bulk and oil import indices from 28 November. These indices will focus on China s trade and track vessels carrying goods and energy. Prices will be collected from charterers, brokers and ship owners. US: On 14 November 2012, CME Group received approval frohe US anti-trust regulators to buy the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). The deal has yet to be finalised. 25

26 Table 1 PRODUCTION: TOTAL GRAINS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria < Czech Rep < Denmark < Finland < France < Germany < Greece Hungary Italy Poland < Romania < Spain < Sweden United Kingdom < Other EU < Serbia < Others CIS < Belarus Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine < Uzbekistan Other CIS N & C AMERICA < Canada < Mexico < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Brazil < Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia Philippines < Thailand Others South Asia < Afghanistan India Pakistan < Others AFRICA < North Africa < Algeria < Egypt Morocco sub-saharan Africa Ethiopia Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Others OCEANIA < Australia < WORLD TOTAL < Table 2 PRODUCTION: ALL WHEAT COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria Czech Rep Denmark France < Germany < Hungary < Greece Italy Poland Romania Slovakia Spain Sweden United Kingdom Other EU Serbia Others CIS Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Other CIS N & C AMERICA Canada Mexico USA Others T T T T T SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia China Others South Asia < Afghanistan India Pakistan < Others AFRICA North Africa Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia sub-saharan Africa Ethiopia South Africa Others OCEANIA < Australia < WORLD TOTAL <

27 Table 3 PRODUCTION: MAIZE (CORN) COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE < Croatia EU < Austria Bulgaria < France < Germany Greece Hungary Italy Romania < Slovakia Spain Other EU Serbia Others CIS < Ukraine < Other CIS < N & C AMERICA < Canada Mexico < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina Brazil < Colombia Paraguay Venezula Others NEAR EAST ASIA Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia Philippines < Thailand Vietnam Others South Asia India Others AFRICA North Africa Egypt Others sub-saharan Africa Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Others OCEANIA Australia Others WORLD TOTAL < Table 4 PRODUCTION: BARLEY COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria Czech Rep Denmark Finland < France Germany Hungary Poland Romania < Spain < Sweden United Kingdom Other EU Others CIS Belarus Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Other CIS N & C AMERICA Canada USA Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Iraq Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Others South Asia India Others AFRICA North Africa < Algeria < Morocco sub-saharan Africa Ethiopia Others OCEANIA Australia New Zealand WORLD TOTAL <

28 Table 5 PRODUCTION: SORGHUM COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE EU France < Italy Others CIS T T 0.2 T T N & C AMERICA < Mexico < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Brazil Colombia Venezuela Others NEAR EAST ASIA Saudi Arabia Yemen FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Thailand Others T T T T T South Asia India Pakistan Others AFRICA North Africa Egypt sub-saharan Africa Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad Ethiopia Mali Niger Nigeria South Africa Sudan Tanzania Uganda Others OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL Table 6 PRODUCTION: OATS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE EU < Finland < Germany Poland < Sweden < CIS Russia Ukraine N & C AMERICA Canada < USA SOUTH AMERICA Argentina NEAR EAST ASIA FAR EAST ASIA China AFRICA OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL Table 7 PRODUCTION: RYE COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) EUROPE < EU < Denmark < Germany < Poland Spain CIS Belarus Russia N & C AMERICA Canada USA NEAR EAST ASIA FAR EAST ASIA China WORLD TOTAL < Table 8 PRODUCTION BY GRAIN 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est.) Wheat < Coarse Grains < Maize (corn) < Barley < Sorghum Oats Rye < Millet, triticale, < mixed grains WORLD TOTAL < See Table notes at the end of this report.

29 Table 9 TRADE: TOTAL GRAINS (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) EUROPE < Albania EU < Norw ay Sw itzerland Others < CIS Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Russia Ukraine T T Uzbekistan Others N & C AMERICA < Canada Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Rep < Guatemala Mexico < USA < Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Bolivia Brazil < Chile < Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela < Others < NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Iraq < Israel Jordan < Lebanon Saudi Arabia Turkey < UAE < Yemen Others < FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < Indonesia Japan Korea (S) Malaysia Philippines < Singapore Taipei, Chinese Thailand Vietnam < Others South Asia < Bangladesh < India T 0.1 T < Pakistan < Sri Lanka Others IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) AFRICA < North Africa Algeria Egypt Libya < Morocco Tunisia Sub-Sahara < Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria < South Africa Sudan Zimbabw e Others < OCEANIA New Zealand Others UNSPECIFIED < SUB-TOTAL < Less: Processed Secondary Trade (PST) WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) Argentina < Australia < Canada EU < Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine < USA < Brazil < China < India < South Africa Turkey Others < WORLD TOTAL < All Wheat < Maize (corn) < Barley < Sorghum < Oats Rye Others <

30 Table 10 TRADE: ALL WHEAT (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) EUROPE < Albania EU Norw ay Sw itzerland Others CIS Azerbaijan Belarus T T T 0.1 T < Georgia Russia 0.1 T T Ukraine T T 0.1 T T Uzbekistan Others N & C AMERICA < Cuba Mexico < USA < Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Bolivia Brazil Chile < Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela < Others < NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Iraq Israel Jordan < Lebanon Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey < UAE Yemen Others < FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < Indonesia Japan Korea (N) Korea (S) Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei, Chinese Thailand Vietnam Others < IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) South Asia Bangladesh India T 0.1 T Pakistan Sri Lanka Others AFRICA < North Africa Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia Sub-Sahara < Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria < South Africa Sudan Others < OCEANIA New Zealand Others UNSPECIFIED SUB-TOTAL < Less: Processed Secondary Trade (PST) WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) Argentina Australia < Canada < EU < Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine < USA < China < India < Pakistan Mexico Syria T T T T T Turkey Others WORLD TOTAL <

31 Table 11 TRADE: MAIZE (CORN) (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) EUROPE EU Others CIS Russia T 0.1 T T T Others N & C AMERICA < Canada Dominican Rep < Mexico Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Brazil < Chile Colombia Peru Uruguay Venezuela Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Israel Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia Japan Korea (S) Malaysia Taipei, Chinese Others < South Asia < AFRICA North Africa Algeria Egypt Morocco Tunisia Others Sub-Sahara Kenya 0.8 T Others OTHERS / UNSPECIFIED 0.1 T WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) Argentina Brazil < Canada China EU < India South Africa Paraguay < Ukraine < USA Others < WORLD TOTAL < Table 12 TRADE: BARLEY* (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) EUROPE < EU < Others < CIS < Russia T Others < N & C AMERICA < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Brazil < Colombia < Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Israel Jordan < Kuw ait Saudi Arabia Syria < UAE < Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < Japan Others South Asia T T 0.1 T T AFRICA North Africa Algeria T Libya < Morocco Tunisia Others T T 0.1 T T Sub-Sahara OTHERS / UNSPECIFIED T T T T T WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) Argentina Australia < Feed < Malting Canada < Feed < Malting EU < Feed < Malting Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine USA < Feed T 0.1 T < Malting Turkey 0.8 T Others < WORLD TOTAL < Feed < Malting * Excluding Malt and other products

32 Table 13 TRADE: SORGHUM (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) IMPORTS EU Mexico 2,656 2,154 1,400 1,600 1,800 < Colombia Chile Japan 1,729 1,386 1,345 1,500 1,500 Ethiopia Sudan EU Others < WORLD TOTAL 6,298 6,333 4,616 5,709 6,000 < EXPORTS Argentina 1,318 1,862 1,595 2,350 2,550 < Australia ,100 1,050 1,050 China India USA 4,298 3,775 1,700 2,000 2,000 Others < Table 14 TRADE: OATS (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) IMPORTS Norw ay Sw itzerland Mexico USA 1,644 1,405 1,635 1,655 1,655 Japan Others WORLD TOTAL 2,123 1,915 2,166 2,220 2,220 EXPORTS Australia Canada 1,571 1,419 1,645 1,750 1,750 Chile EU USA Others Table 15 TRADE: RYE (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (forecast) (est.) IMPORTS EU Norw ay Russia T T T T T Ukraine T T T T T USA Israel < Japan Korea (S) Others < WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS Canada EU Russia Ukraine Others < See Table Notes at the end of this report

33 Table 16 REPORTED SALES * (25 October 28 November 2012) IM- EX- QUANT. GRAINS/ PRICE PER TON, FOB SHIPPING DATE PORTER PORTER '000 PRODUCTS UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED PERIOD TONS WHEAT ALGERIA Optional origins (likely EU (France)) up to Milling $ C&F Jan BAHRAIN Optional origins 30.0 $ $ C&F Dec BANGLADESH Optional origins (likely India) 50.0 $ CIF Unknow n BRAZIL EU (Germany) 50.0 Unknow n Unknow n DJIBOUTI India $ C&F Dec EGYPT Russia $ Dec EU (France) $ Dec EU (Romania) 60.0 $ Dec INDONESIA Australia 20.0 just below $ C&F Unknow n IRAN EU (Germany) 50.0 Unknow n Nov-12/Dec IRAQ Australia $ CIF Dec-12/Jan Canada $ CIF Dec-12/Jan Russia 50.0 $ CIF Dec-12/Jan Australia Unknow n Unknow n Unknow n JAPAN Canada, US, EU (France) 29.3 Milling see GMRPlus** Jan Unknow n 1.2 Feed see GMRPlus** Feb US, Canada Milling see GMRPlus** Jan Australia, Canada, US Milling see GMRPlus** Jan-13/Feb JORDAN Optional origins (likely Ukraine) 50.0 $ C&F Jan LEBANON Ukraine 25.0 Milling $ C&F Dec Russia 25.0 Milling $ C&F Nov LIBYA Optional origins (likely Russia) 30.0 Milling $ C&F Nov PHILLIPINES Australia 55.0 Feed $ C&F Unknow n SOUTH KOREA Australia 38.8 Milling Unknow n Feb US 26.0 Milling Unknow n Feb-13/Mar US 24.7 Milling Unknow n Feb-13 arrival US 24.5 Milling Unknow n Mar Canada 23.7 Milling Unknow n Feb-13/Mar SUDAN Australia 55.0 APW $ Dec-12/Jan SYRIA likely Black Sea Soft $ C&F Unknow n TAIPEI, CHINESE US 41.0 DNS $ Dec-12/Jan US 18.7 HRW $ $ Dec-12/Jan US 8.6 WW $ Dec-12/Jan THAILAND US 45.0 DNS/HRW/WW $ $ C&F Dec TUNISIA Optional origins Milling $ $ C&F Dec-12/Jan-13 DURUM TUNISIA Optional origins 25.0 $ C&F Dec-12/Jan Optional origins 25.0 $ C&F Dec-12/Jan Optional origins 25.0 $ C&F Dec-12/Jan-13 (cont.)

34 Table 16 (Cont d) REPORTED SALES * IM- EX- QUANT. GRAINS/ PRICE PER TON, FOB SHIPPING DATE PORTER PORTER '000 PRODUCTS UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED PERIOD TONS MAIZE (Corn) EGYPT South America (mostly Argentina) $ Apr-13/Jun South America (mostly Argentina) 20.0 Unknow n Apr-13/May ISRAEL Europe or Black Sea 90.0 $ $ C&F Nov-12/Feb JAPAN US see GMRPlus** MY2013/ US see GMRPlus** Jan-13/Mar MALAYSIA Ukraine 50.0 $ $ C&F Jan SOUTH KOREA South America 63.0 $ C&F Jan-13/Feb US or Brazil 55.0 $ C&F Mar Optional origins 68.0 $ C&F May Optional origins 62.5 $ C&F Mar South America 70.0 $ C&F Mar South America 69.0 $ C&F Feb TAIPEI, CHINESE US 23.0 $ & $1.912/bu + CME Mar C&F Nov-12/Dec-12 BARLEY ISRAEL Europe or Black Sea 25.0 Feed $ $ C&F Nov-12/Feb JAPAN Canada, US, EU (France) 9.5 Food see GMRPlus** Jan Unknow n 90.3 Feed see GMRPlus** Feb JORDAN Australia, Canada, EU or South America 50.0 Feed $ C&F Jan Optional origins 50.0 Feed $ C&F Jan TUNISIA Optional origins 25.0 Feed $ C&F Jan Optional origins 25.0 Feed $ C&F Jan-13 * Excludes w eekly sales reported in USDA Export Sales report except as indicated ** For individual sales details see GMRPlus (w eekly service available as upgrade to GMR subscribers). *** As originally reported. a) COFACE credit facilities f) AID financing k) USDA under daily reporting system b) GSM g) 250 Hagberg l) Purchased using US AID Cash Transfer Program Funding c) PL 480, Title II h) EU credit m) As listed in USDA w eekly Export Sales report d) Food For Progress i) Credit basis n) As listed in Ag. Ministry w eekly Export Commitments report e) Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust j) Food aid tender

35 Table 17A MAIN WHEAT EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Dec/Nov 1 Dec - 21 Nov shipments 10,883 1) 7, /12 Net sales for week ending 21 Nov (20) Outstanding commitments 1,173 1, TOTAL 12,056 8, AUSTRALIA Oct/Sep Oct - Sep shipments 24,680 18, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 18 Nov shipments 5,255 5, /13 EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 2 Jul - 20 Nov 12/13 Soft w heat 6,823 6, Flour (grain equivalent) Durum Semolina (grain equivalent) TOTAL 7,800 3) 7,331 3) + 6 USA Jun/May 1 Jun - 15 Nov shipments 11,430 12,999 2) /13 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (635) 4) Outstanding commitments 4,435 4,419 - TOTAL 15,865 17,418-9 Of w hich: HRW 6,110 6, SRW 2,273 2,466-8 HRS 4,104 4,523-9 WHITE 3,047 3,329-8 DURUM KAZAKHSTAN Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments 1, /13 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments 6,629 5) 8, /13 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments 2,507 1, /13 Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Australia: ABS Canada: CGC EU: Commission USA: USDA Kazakhstan: unofficial Russia: unofficial Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult T = Less than 500 t. 1) Excludes flour. Source: Direccion de Mercados Agroalimentarios - Ag. Ministry 2) Excludes donations. 3) Cumulative of 21 w eeks 4) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details 5) Preliminary data only Table 17B MAIN MAIZE (CORN) EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Mar/Feb 1 Mar - 21 Nov shipments 13,577 1) 12, /12 Net Sales for week ending 21 Nov (155) Outstanding commitments 4,638 1, TOTAL 18,214 14, BRAZIL Mar/Feb Mar - Oct shipments 11,945 5, /13 CHINA Oct/Sep Oct shipments /13 SOUTH AFRICA May/Apr May - Oct shipments 957 1, /13 USA Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 15 Nov shipments 4,738 8, /13 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (770) 2) Outstanding commitments 7,204 13, TOTAL 11,942 21, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade China: official customs data South Africa: South Africa Grain Information Service USA: USDA T = Less than 500 t. 1) Excludes donations. 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details Table 17C MAIN BARLEY EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year AUSTRALIA Nov/Oct Nov - Sep shipments 5,098 3, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 18 Nov shipments /13 EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 2 Jul - 20 Nov 12/13 Barley 2,362 1, Malt (grain equivalent) TOTAL 2,362 3) 1,864 3) + 27 USA Jun/May 1 Jun - 15 Nov shipments ) /13 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (-) 2) Outstanding commitments TOTAL RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments 1,091 4) /13 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments 1,156 1, /13 Sources: Australia: ABS Canada: CGC EU: Commission USA: USDA Russia: unofficial Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult 1) Excludes donations. 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details 3) Cumulative of 21 w eeks 4) Preliminary data only

36 Table 18A SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS** Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL GRAINS Argentina ** 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (2.1) (47.9) (50.0) (2.3) (9.1) (16.0) (30.8) (3.2) Australia ** 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (10.0) (33.8) (43.8) (7.6) (12.0) (26.3) (5.5) Canada EU / /12 est /13 f'cast (8.7) (50.4) (60.1) (3.0) (5.8) (17.3) (27.4) (24.5) (8.1) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (29.9) (267.6) (16.5) (314.0) (62.7) (33.3) (152.1) (262.4) (25.2) (26.4) Kazakhstan 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Russia Ukraine USA 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (13.5) (68.1) (82.8) (30.3) (61.9) (12.7) (8.3) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (9.5) (41.6) (51.2) (14.8) (27.0) (19.4) (4.8) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (346.3) (7.9) (402.3) (148.6) (118.2) (301.2) (64.0) (37.1) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2010/ , /12 est , /13 f'cast , (128.4) (868.2) (26.8) (1023.3) (131.3) (194.6) (352.8) (716.9) (210.1) (96.3) China India 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (115.1) (5.1) (446.6) (61.7) (156.6) (331.2) (1.6) (113.9) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (22.2) (0.1) (153.5) (99.7) (124.2) (6.7) (22.5) WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2010/ , , , /12 est , , , /13 f'cast , , , (371.6) (1761.3) (248.5) (2132.9) (633.0) (295.3) (758.8) (1804.6) (248.5) (328.3)

37 Table 18B SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks d) supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) d) stocks WHEAT Argentina (Dec/Nov) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.3) (11.4) (0.7) Australia (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.0) (22.0) (30.0) (20.7) (3.8) Canada (Aug/Jul) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (2.7) (0.8) (8.6) (18.6) (5.4) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (130.6) (147.4) (10.0) (47.4) (118.3) (18.6) (10.5) of which common wheat 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (122.6) (137.2) (10.0) (47.2) (110.9) (16.1) (10.2) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Russia (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (13.5) (35.8) (9.0) (6.0) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (4.0) (12.1) (5.4) (3.3) USA (Jun/May) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (31.3) (17.8) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (69.2) (315.7) (395.1) (112.3) (12.3) (82.4) (227.9) (117.1) (50.0) China (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.0) (174.9) (23.0) (121.0) (1.0) (52.9) India (Apr/Mar) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (20.5) (0.1) (114.5) (77.0) (88.0) (5.0) WORLD TOTAL e) e) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (196.4) (654.8) (132.2) (851.2) (465.2) (19.2) (131.2) (678.8) (132.2) (172.4)

38 Table 18C SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL COARSE GRAINS 2010/ , , , /12 est , , , /13 f'cast , , , (175.2) (1106.5) (116.3) (1281.7) (167.9) (276.2) (627.5) (1125.8) (116.3) (155.9) MAIZE Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast Brazil (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (11.1) (72.0) (83.4) (11.7) EU-27 (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (6.6) (53.2) (69.8) (12.9) (65.1) (3.9) South Africa (May/Apr) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast Ukraine (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (19.0) (20.1) (11.7) (0.5) USA (Sep/Aug) f) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (272.0) (2.0) (299.1) (142.8) (253.5) (16.1) China (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Japan (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (135.0) (830.2) (92.7) (965.2) (99.6) (239.3) (475.9) (848.2) (92.7) (117.0)

39 Table 18D SUPPLY & DEMAND: BARLEY & SORGHUM* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks BARLEY Argentina (Dec/Nov) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.8) (5.6) (6.4) (0.2) (0.7) (1.0) (4.0) (1.5) Australia (Nov/Oct) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.5) (8.5) (2.3) (3.0) (4.3) (1.2) Canada (Aug/Jul) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.7) (9.5) (6.2) (6.7) (0.8) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (9.6) (54.0) (0.4) (64.0) (36.3) (48.6) (5.6) (9.7) Russia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.5) (15.9) (2.1) (1.1) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.8) (8.4) (3.8) (5.1) (1.0) Saudi Arabia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (2.1) (9.1) (7.1) (7.2) (2.0) WORLD TOTAL g), h) g), h) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (26.5) (130.3) (17.3) (156.8) (29.0) (87.8) (132.0) (17.3) (24.8) SORGHUM Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (4.8) (4.9) (2.2) (2.5) (2.3) (0.2) Australia (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast USA (Sep/Aug) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (6.4) (7.1) (1.8) (3.9) WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (5.7) (27.1) (5.7) (1.8)

40 Table 18E SUPPLY & DEMAND: OATS & RYE* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks OATS Australia (Nov/Oct) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Canada (Aug/Jul) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (3.0) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (7.8) (8.6) (6.0) USA (Jun/May) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast RYE EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.0) (8.6) (2.2) (1.3) (4.4) (8.1) (0.4) Russia (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (14.6) (15.5) (5.5) (2.1) (6.5) (14.7) (0.8) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report. ** Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the "2012/13" year includes the 2012/13 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2013/14 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize. a) Including seed and waste. f) Includes residual. b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, g) IGC July/June trade Russia, Ukraine, United States h) Excludes trade in malt c) Includes trade in malt. Totals may not sum due to rounding. d) Including estimated trade in secondary products Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate. e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

41 Table 19 SUPPLY & DEMAND: DURUM WHEAT* (major exporters) Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports a) Closing stocks supply Food Feed Total stocks Canada (Aug/July) 2010/ T b) 0.5 c) /12 est T b) 0.3 c) /13 f'cast T b) 0.4 c) EU-27 (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast USA (June/May) 2010/ T /12 est T /13 f'cast T (1.0) (0.8) Total 3 major exporters a) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.3) (0.5) (10.4) (7.4) (2.2) WORLD TOTAL d) d) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.9) (35.7) (7.0) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates elsewhere in this report. Figures in brackets represent previous estimates for 2012/13. a) Including semolina and secondary products b) Including industrial uses c) Including waste and dockage d) IGC July/June trade, excluding trade in secondary products PRODUCTION: DURUM WHEAT COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EU France Greece Italy Spain < Kazakhstan Canada Mexico USA Argentina Syria Turkey India Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Australia Others WORLD TOTAL TRADE: DURUM WHEAT (incl. semolina) (July/June) '000 tons COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) IMPORTS EU-27 2,159 1,928 1,860 1,900 1,900 USA Chile Peru Venezuela Japan Algeria 1,534 1,335 1,800 1,300 1,300 Libya Morocco Tunisia Nigeria Others & Unspec. 1,387 1,190 1, WORLD TOTAL 7,553 7,338 7,600 7,100 7,100 of which semolina EXPORTS Australia Canada 3,675 3,117 3,850 4,000 4,100 < EU-27 1,054 2,060 1, of which semolina Kazakhstan Mexico Turkey USA 1,045 1, <

42 Table 20 PRODUCTION: ALL RICE COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU CIS N & C AMERICA < Cuba USA Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina Brazil < Uruguay < Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Others < South Asia < Bangladesh < India Pakistan Others < AFRICA North Africa Egypt sub-saharan Africa Madagascar Nigeria Others OCEANIA WORLD TOTAL < Table 21a MAIN RICE EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar Apr - Sep shipments /13 BRAZIL Apr/Mar Apr - Oct shipments /13 EU Sep/Aug Sep shipments /13 1 Sep - 20 Nov shipments INDIA Oct/Sep Oct - Jul shipments 8,815 2, /12 THAILAND Jan/Dec Jan - Sep shipments 4,681 8, Jan - 4 Nov shipments 4,242 1) 7,667 1) Jan - 2 Oct shipments 5,067 2) 9,059 2) - 44 URUGUAY Apr/Mar Apr shipments /13 USA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 15 Nov shipments 752 3) 846 3) /13 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (101) 3) Outstanding commitments 643 3) 468 3) + 37 TOTAL 1,395 1, Of which: Rough 575 3) 535 3) + 7 Milled 727 3) 660 3) + 10 Brown 93 3) 118 3) - 21 VIETNAM Jan/Dec 1 Jan - 15 Nov shipments 6,740 6, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade EU: Commission India: Ministry of Commerce Thailand: Thai Customs Department Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA Vietnam: Vietnam Food Association * Data refer to milled weight basis unless otherwise stated 1) White and parboiled rice 2) All rice shipments 3) Product weight basis Table 21 TRADE: ALL RICE (January/December) (milled basis) IMPORTS (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU CIS Russia N & C AMERICA < Canada Cuba Haiti < Mexico < United States Others SOUTH AMERICA < Brazil < Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia UAE Others FAR EAST ASIA < Bangladesh < China < Indonesia < Japan Korea (South) Malaysia Philippines Others < AFRICA < Sub-Sahara < Benin Cameroon Côte d'ivoire < Ghana Mozambique Nigeria < Senegal South Africa Others OCEANIA UNSPECIFIED SUB-TOTAL < Less re-exports a) < WORLD TOTAL < a) including estimates of cross-border trade (milled basis) EXPORTS (f'cast) (est.) India Pakistan Thailand < USA Vietnam < 5 LEADING EXPORTERS < Argentina Australia Brazil Cambodia China Egypt EU Guyana Japan Myanmar Uguguay Others

43 Table 22 SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE (milled basis) Opening Production Imports Total Total Exports Closing stocks supply use a) stocks India (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (21.6) (121.4) (95.0) (6.9) (19.5) Pakistan (Nov/Oct) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Thailand (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (9.4) (31.0) (7.9) (12.1) USA (Aug/July) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.6) (3.2) Vietnam (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.7) (28.9) (20.0) (6.7) (2.2) Total 5 leading exporters b) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (34.7) (196.8) (132.6) (28.6) (35.6) Bangladesh (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.1) (34.1) (0.6) (35.8) (34.9) (0.9) China (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (45.0) (1.4) (188.8) (142.5) (45.8) Indonesia (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (3.9) (1.5) (42.4) (3.0) Philippines (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (103.2) (464.8) (35.6) (568.1) (465.7) (35.6) (102.5) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report. a) Including seed and waste. b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

44 Table 23 PRODUCTION: SOYABEANS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU CIS N & C AMERICA < Canada USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Bolivia Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Indonesia Others South Asia India AFRICA Table 24 PRODUCTION: RAPESEED / CANOLA COUNTRY 2009/ / / /13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU CIS < Belarus Russia Ukraine N & C AMERICA Canada USA FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China South Asia India OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL < WORLD TOTAL < Table 25 TRADE: SOYABEANS (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU N & C AMERICA < Canada Mexico < Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina Brazil Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Israel < Turkey Others < FAR EAST ASIA < China < Taipei, Chinese Indonesia Japan Korea (S) < Vietnam < Thailand < Others < AFRICA < Egypt Others < OTHERS & UNSP < WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) Argentina Brazil < Canada China Paraguay < Ukraine USA < Others < WORLD TOTAL < Table 25a MAIN SOYABEAN EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar 1 Apr - 14 Nov shipments 5,048 8, /12 BRAZIL Feb/Jan Feb - Oct shipments 31,511 29, /13 CANADA Aug/Jul Aug - Sep shipments /12 UKRAINE Sep/Aug Sep shipments /12 URUGUAY Apr/Mar Apr shipments /13 USA Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 15 Nov shipments 13,596 8, /12 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (544) Outstanding commitments 13,449 11, TOTAL 27,045 20, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: SECEX Foreign Trade Secretariat Canada: Statistics Canada Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA

45 Table 26 TRADE: SOYAMEAL (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE < EU < N & C AMERICA < Canada Mexico < Others SOUTH AMERICA Chile Colombia Peru Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Others FAR EAST ASIA < Indonesia Japan < Korea (S) Malaysia < Philippines Thailand < Vietnam < Others AFRICA Algeria Egypt South Africa Others OCEANIA OTHERS & UNSP < WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) Argentina < Brazil < China < EU India Paraguay USA < Others < WORLD TOTAL < Table 27 TRADE: RAPESEED / CANOLA (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) EUROPE EU N & C AMERICA Mexico USA Others FAR EAST ASIA China Japan Pakistan Others OTHERS & UNSP WORLD TOTAL EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) (est.) Australia Canada EU Russia Ukraine USA Others WORLD TOTAL Table 26a MAIN SOYAMEAL EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar Apr - Sep shipments 12,781 14, /13 BOLIVIA Mar/Feb Mar - Apr shipments /12 BRAZIL Feb/Jan Feb - Oct shipments 10,066 11, /13 CHINA Oct/Sep Oct shipments /12 INDIA Oct/Sep Oct - Jul shipments 4,769 4, /12 PARAGUAY Mar/Feb Mar - Oct shipments /13 USA Oct/Sep 1 Oct - 15 Nov shipments 1, /12 Net sales for week ending 15 Nov (198) Outstanding commitments 2,854 2, TOTAL 4,220 3, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Bolivia: Bolivia Customs Brazil: SECEX Foreign Trade Secretariat China: Gen. Admin. of Customs India: Ministry of Commerce Paraguay: Central Bank USA: USDA Table 27a MAIN RAPESEED / CANOLA EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year AUSTRALIA Nov/Oct Nov - Sep shipments 2,462 1, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 18 Nov shipments 2,532 2, /12 EU Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments /12 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments /12 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Sep shipments /12 USA Oct/Sep Oct - Sep shipments /12 Sources: Australia: ABS Canada : CGC EU: Commission Russia: Customs Committee of Russia Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult USA: USDA

46 Table 28 SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS & RAPESEED/CANOLA Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Feed Crush Total a) stocks SOYABEANS Argentina (Apr/Mar) 2011/12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (55.7) (1.5) (38.7) (40.2) (13.5) (2.1) Brazil (Feb/Jan) 2011/12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (36.0) (5.0) USA (Sep/Aug) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (77.8) (82.9) (3.1) (41.9) (45.0) (34.4) (3.5) Total 3 major exporters b) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (7.0) (212.3) (220.2) (7.8) (117.9) (125.7) (83.9) (10.6) China (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (15.4) (60.0) (88.2) (75.3) (0.0) (12.9) EU-27 (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (23.7) (263.6) (95.6) (287.2) (15.1) (14.9) (230.1) (260.6) (95.6) (26.7) RAPESEED/CANOLA Australia (Dec/Nov) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Canada (Aug/Jul) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast China (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (58.8) (63.2) (57.2) (59.7) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report. a) Including seed and waste. b) Argentina, Brazil, USA c) IGC October/September trade Totals may not sum due to rounding Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

47 Table 29 PRICES: WEEKLY EXPORT QUOTATIONS (fob, nearest shipment position) US$ / ton Year Ago IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index * WHEAT ARGENTINA Trigo Pan, Up River AUSTRALIA APW 2, Western Australia ASW 1, Western Australia ASW 1, Eastern States APW 1, Eastern States CANADA a) No. 1 CWRS 13.5%, St. Lawrence No. 1 CWRS 12.5%, Vancouver EU France Grade 1, Rouen France Grade 1, Rouen /ton Germany B Quality, Hamburg UK Feed, Eastern BLACK SEA Milling Grade Feed USA No. 2 HRW, Gulf No. 2 SRW, Gulf No. 2 SW, PNW No. 2 DNS 14%, Lakehead No. 2 DNS 14%, Gulf No. 2 DNS 13.5%, PNW No. 2 DNS 14%, PNW IGC GOI: Wheat Sub Index * MAIZE (CORN) Argentina, Rosario (Up River) Black Sea Brazil, Paranagua USA No. 3 Yellow, Gulf IGC GOI: Maize Sub Index * BARLEY Australia malting, Eastern states Australia feed, Eastern states EU (France) Feed, Rouen EU (Germany), Hamburg EU (France) spring malting, Rouen Black Sea Feed USA No.2 Western, PNW SORGHUM USA, Gulf RICE Thailand 100% Grade B Vietnam 5% Broken USA No.2, 4% Broken India 25% Broken Pakistan 25% Broken IGC GOI: Rice Sub-Index * SOYABEANS USA No.2, Gulf Argentina, Rosario (Up River) Brazil, Paranagua IGC GOI: Soyabeans Sub Index * RAPESEED/CANOLA Canada, Vancouver * GOI, weekly basis: Jan 2000 = 100, as calculated by IGC for previous Friday. For details, visit: a) Quotations by Canadian Wheat Board (CWB), except Vancouver (estimate) Quotations discontinued

48 Table 30 FUTURES PRICES (Nearby Contract) Year Ago WHEAT USA - CME - SRW c/bu USA - KCBT - HRW c/bu USA - MGE - HRS c/bu EU (France) - MATIF - Soft Milling /ton Australia - ASX - Milling A$/ton EU (UK) - LIFFE - Feed /ton MAIZE (CORN) USA - CME c/bu China - Dalian Renminbi/ton 2,156 2,311 2,324 2,315 2,182 2,195 2,195 2,348 2,365 EU (France) - MATIF /ton S.Africa - SAFEX White Rand/ton 2,452 2,421 2,390 2,510 2,472 2,432 2,432 2,439 2,478 BARLEY Canada - ICE - Feed C$/ton RICE USA - CME c/cwt 1,484 1,503 1,514 1,506 1,483 1,494 1,438 1,483 1,519 SOYABEANS USA - CME c/bu 1,131 1,523 1,509 1,571 1,547 1,509 1,433 1,408 1,446 China - Dalian No.1 Renminbi/ton 4,019 4,695 4,709 4,706 4,697 4,511 4,511 4,643 4,649 CANOLA Canada - ICE C$/ton VEGETABLE OIL Malaysia - Palm Oil Ringgit/ton 3,000 2,279 2,393 2,468 2,404 2,290 2,395 2,340 2,160 US FUTURES PRICES (Nearby Contract)