INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL GRAIN MARKET REPORT

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL GRAIN MARKET REPORT GMR No August 2012 WORLD ESTIMATES 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 est million tons 12/13 forecast TOTAL GRAINS* Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters a) WHEAT Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters a) MAIZE (CORN) Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters b) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States b) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, United States * Wheat and coarse grains million tons (milled basis) 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 est 12/13 forecast RICE Production Trade Consumption Carryover stocks year/year change Major exporters c) c) India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, United States HIGHLIGHTS Despite some initial easing, global grains and oilseeds values were firm during August, underpinned by continued worries about deteriorating US maize (corn) and soyabeans production prospects as well as shrinking crop expectations in the Black Sea region. Recovering from mid-month declines, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) showed a net gain of 2% since the last Market Report, but remained below July s all-time high. US maize and soyabeans production outlooks were the main focus of market activity. Rains were considered too late for maize, with output still expected to decline steeply year-on-year (y/y), while precipitation was only considered to have stabilised the soyabean crop s condition at best. While prices were pressured by profit taking at times, the GOI sub-indices for both showed month-on-month (m/m) net increases, rising by 1% and 3%, respectively. Global wheat values continued to respond to strength in rowcrops, but were also supported by a worsening outlook for Black Sea and Australian wheat. Black Sea exporters captured a high proportion of recent demand, but availabilities were soon expected to become short. However, good prospects for spring wheat harvests in North America capped overall price gains, the GOI sub- Index virtually unchanged m/m. The IGC s daily rice index advanced marginally in the past month, although markets were mixed, with values easing in Thailand and rising elsewhere, including in Vietnam. Gains were limited by generally bearish fundamentals: global ending stocks in 2012/13 are projected to be broadly unchanged on the previous year, with supplies in the major exporters, notably in Thailand and India, expected to remain comfortable. Jan 2000 = IGC GRAINS AND OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI) 334 This month s report includes a market focus examining the US Renewable Fuel Standard and recent requests for a partial waiver. A second market focus provides a review of volatility trends in grains and oilseeds futures during the past three months. Day-to-day price swings were initially more pronounced, reflecting growing uncertainty about crop prospects and external influences. However, as more information became available about likely crop losses, volatility eased, especially for maize. 27 Apr 17 May 06 Jun 26 Jun 13 Jul 02 Aug 22 Aug See:

2 SUMMARY 2012/13 OUTLOOK FOR KEY GRAINS AND OILSEEDS WHEAT World wheat production in 2012/13 is placed 3m t lower than last month at 662m, some 34m below last season s record. Food and industrial consumption are expected to grow, but feed use will likely be lower. World stocks are forecast to contract by 17m t, to 180m. A projected fall in the major exporters is led by the Black Sea region. US$ / t US No 2 HRW 11.5% (Gulf) World trade is forecast to be 13.3m t below last season s record, at 132.7m, mainly due to lower imports for feed. 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MAIZE Drought has further stressed crops across the northern hemisphere, with world production forecast to drop by 4%. Exportable supplies in the US and Ukraine have tightened and, while the next crops in Brazil, Argentina and South Africa may be large, harvests are still several months away. A smaller crop will result in a drop in consumption, the first since 1993/94. World stocks are forecast to fall to a six-year low, including a particularly steep decline in the major exporters. US$ / t US 3YC (Gulf) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2012 Sep Oct Nov 2011 Dec RICE World rice production in 2012/13 is projected to rise to a record 466m t (464m). However, at just 0.4%, the expansion will be smaller than in recent years. After the previous year s solid output-led expansion, consumption is set to increase only modestly, to 465m t (459m). US$ / t Thailand 100% Grade B With global production and use broadly in balance, the world carryover is set to show little change, including only a modest rise in major exporters stocks Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec World trade in 2013 is projected to rise slightly, to 34.8m t. OILSEEDS World 2012/13 soyabean production is projected at 255m t, up by 7% y/y as a rebound in South America compensates for a disappointing US crop. Expanding feed demand in China will continue to shape world soyabean trade, forecast at a record 94.0m t, up 2% y/y. Global soyameal trade is expected to be little changed, at 57.2m t. A record rapeseed/canola outturn in Canada should more than offset disappointing crops elsewhere, with global production up slightly, to 60.6m t, close to the 2009/10 record. US$ / t US 2Y* (Gulf) Jan Feb Mar Apr * Soyabeans May Jun Jul Aug 2012 Sep Oct Nov 2011 Dec Larger shipments to the EU and China are set to boost world rapeseed/canola trade by 5%, to 12.5m t. IGC 2012

3 GMR August 2012 GMR CONTENTS (N.B: Text and tables highlighted in blue are available in electronic version only ) COMMENTARY Page no. Page no. GRAINS OVERVIEW 4 MARKET FOCUS 20 4 The Renewable Fuel Standard 10 WHEAT 7 Volatility in grains and oilseeds futures: update 20 Durum World trade in wheat flour COARSE GRAINS 7 OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 21 Maize (corn) 7 Barley 11 NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS 21 Sorghum 13 Latest national trade-related measures 21 Oats 13 Other national policy developments 21 Rye 14 Other developments 22 RICE 15 OILSEEDS 17 Soyabeans 17 Soyameal 18 Rapeseed/canola 18 TABLES GRAINS Table no. Table no. PRODUCTION SUPPLY AND DEMAND Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 1 Total grains 18A All wheat 2 All wheat 18B Maize (corn) 3 Maize (corn) 18C Barley 4 Barley & sorghum 18D Sorghum 5 Oats & rye 18E Oats 6 Rye 7 Durum wheat: Supply and demand/production/trade 19 Totals by grain 8 TRADE RICE Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) 9 Production 20 All wheat 10 Trade 21 Maize (corn) 11 Rice: main exporters' progress reports 21A Barley 12 Supply and demand 22 Sorghum 13 Cumulative shipments by destination - All rice E Oats 14 Rye 15 OILSEEDS Shipments and sales Soyabeans: production 23 Rapeseed/canola: production 24 Recent reported sales (wheat and coarse grains) 16 Soyabeans: trade 25 Wheat: main exporters' progress reports 17A Soyabeans: main exporters' progress reports 25A Maize (corn): main exporters' progress reports 17B Soyameal: trade 26 Barley: main exporters' progress reports 17C Soyameal: main exporters' progress reports 26A Rapeseed/canola: trade 27 Monthly and quarterly grain shipments A Rapeseed/canola: main exporters' progress reports 27A Cumulative shipments by destination Cumulative shipments by destination Wheat B1 Soyabeans F1 Durum wheat B2 Soyameal F2 Maize (corn) B3 Rapeseed/canola F3 Barley B4 Malt B5 Sorghum B6 PRICES Oats B7 Weekly export quotations (and GOI) 28 EU: licences, import duties and export refunds Futures prices 29 Export/import licences C1 Historical volatility 29A Import duties C2 IGC GOI and sub-indices G TRQ import licences C3 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES CHINA Selected grain routes 30 Production D1 Trade forecasts D2 Trade progress report D3 Official trade data D4

4 GMR August 2012 IGC GRAINS OVERVIEW WHEAT Following another steep cut for maize, the forecast of world grains * production in 2012/13 is 34m t lower than last month, at 1,776m. Tight supplies and high prices will likely constrain consumption, especially for feed. SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 World wheat production in 2012/13 is 3m t lower than last month at 662m, some 34m below last season s record. World carryover stocks are forecast to contract by 33m t, to 338m, a five-year low. World grains and oilseeds prices remained high during August, the IGC daily Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) showing a net gain of 2%. The forecast of world grains production in 2012/13 is cut sharply for the second consecutive month, mostly because of a continued deterioration for US maize (corn), but also reflecting disappointing harvests in the EU and CIS. World production is placed 34m t lower than before, at 1,776m, down by 4% from last year. For the first time in 19 years, world maize consumption is forecast to decline. While industrial demand is expected to be lower, measures to stem biofuels use may have little impact. Some feed demand will likely switch from maize to other grains, but the potential for greater wheat and barley use is limited. The projection of total world grains consumption is reduced by 30m t, to 1,809m, down by 2% from 2011/12. 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 m t Total grains: Supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States The forecast of world grains stocks at the end of 2012/13 is slightly higher than previously, but it is still 33m t below last year, at 338m. Led by a fall in the US, maize inventories in the major exporters are placed at a nine-year low, while exporters stocks of wheat are seen at their smallest in five years. Mainly reflecting a deep cut for maize, global grains trade is placed 7m t lower than in the last GMR, at 249m (269m). * Wheat and coarse grains m t Crops are expected to increase in North America, but a steep fall is forecast for the CIS. Outturns are also forecast to be lower in the EU, Argentina and Australia. Food and industrial consumption are expected to grow, but feed use is not seen as high as last year s record. World stocks are forecast to contract by 17m t, to 180m. A fall in stocks in the major exporters is led by the Black Sea region. World trade is forecast to be 13.3m t below last season s record, at 132.7m, mainly due to lower imports for feed. Nevertheless, feed wheat import projections are raised for some countries due to continued strong buying. Wheat: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June Production Despite better than previously expected results in the EU, Canada and the US, reduced crop estimates for the CIS reduce the 2012/13 world wheat production forecast by 3m t, to 662m. Global output is now placed 34m t short of last season s record. See: In the EU, dry weather across southern regions helped crops to mature and the harvest to accelerate, but rains in central and northern parts slowed fieldwork. Because of better than anticipated outturns in France, Germany 4

5 IGC GMR August 2012 and Italy, the production forecast is increased by 1.1m t, to 133.1m (137.7m), including 125.1m (129.2m) of common wheat. Hot and dry conditions continued to stress the spring crop in much of Kazakhstan and average yields are expected to fall sharply from the previous year s record; production is placed 1.0m t lower than before, at 11.0m (22.7m). The winter wheat harvest in western Russia neared the half-way point by mid-august, with early reports confirming a steep drop in yields. Recent rains were beneficial for immature crops in the southern Urals, but more precipitation is required elsewhere. Because of unfavourable weather during much of the growing season, production is forecast to fall by 27%, to 41.0m t, down by 4m from the last GMR. The outcome in Ukraine, where combining was finished earlier than normal, was also affected by poor weather, with the harvested area estimated to have fallen by 25%, to 5.0m ha. Together with reduced yields, production is placed at a nine-year low of 13.0m t (22.3m). The winter wheat harvest was completed in Eastern Canada, with quality reported to be above average, while mostly dry weather across the south-western Prairies was favourable for maturing spring crops. Total wheat plantings are estimated to be 11% higher than last season, with the biggest increase of 22% for winter wheat. Durum area is estimated to have risen by 17%, while other spring wheat sowings were 8% higher. Based on normal abandonment and slightly aboveaverage yields, the production forecast is raised by 0.5m t, to 27.0m (25.3m). placed at a four-year high of 45.7m t (+12%). After the poor results of 2011/12, durum production is projected to rebound by two-thirds, to 2.3m t, while other spring wheat is forecast at 13.5m (+9%). Recent rains brought some relief to previously dry parts of central Argentina, especially in north-eastern and southern Buenos Aires province, but cooler weather slowed crop development. With sowing complete, the area is forecast to fall by 18%, to 3.7m ha, contained by competition from more profitable crops and dryness during planting in northern areas. The production forecast is unchanged from before, at 11.5m t (14.5m). In China, showers across north-eastern regions were beneficial for spring wheat development. Following a record winter wheat crop of over 114.0m t, total production is expected to reach its highest-ever level, at 120.0m (117.9m). Increased area and higher yields boosted production in India to a record 93.9m t (86.9m). Seasonably warm and dry weather helped the completion of harvests in Iran and Turkey, with crop estimates unchanged from last month, at 14.0m t (13.5m) and 18.5m (18.8m), respectively. In North Africa, production in Algeria and Tunisia was boosted by ideal growing conditions, with output estimated at 4.0m t (2.8m) and 1.6m (1.3m), respectively. In contrast, drought severely curtailed results in Morocco, where production is estimated to have fallen by 40%, to 3.5m t. Wheat: World supply and demand m t Wheat: US production Durum Other spring wheat Winter wheat m t < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > m t /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 f'cast Cutting of winter crops in the US was aided by favourable weather and harvesting was completed earlier than normal in most areas. Higher plantings, lower abandonment and above-average yields are expected to boost production to 61.5m t (+13% on 2011/12), an increase of 1.0m compared with July due to better than expected yields. The winter wheat crop is /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States After an unfavourably dry start to the growing season, recent rains boosted soil moisture in Western Australia, however more is needed. Owing to dryness across much of the country, total plantings are estimated to have fallen by 5%, to 13.4m ha. With average yields not expected to match those of last year, production is forecast to decline by 22% from last season s record, to 23.0m t. The projection for South Africa is trimmed slightly, to 1.8m t (2.0m), due to lower than previously expected plantings. 0 5

6 GMR August 2012 IGC Consumption The forecast of 2012/13 world wheat consumption is unchanged from the last GMR, at 679m t (692m). Competitive prices are sustaining strong demand for feed wheat in place of more costly maize, but use is not expected to reach the previous year s record; at 129.4m t, feed use is placed 15.8m lower, but still about onequarter above the average in the preceding 10 years. Direct use for human food is forecast to increase by 1.0%, to 466.0m t, equalling the long-term growth trend. Industrial use is projected at 20.0m t, up by 6% from last year mainly due to an expected increase in ethanol use in the EU. Stocks World wheat stocks at the end of 2012/13 are forecast to fall by 17m t, to a four-year low of 180m, down by 3m. from last month s projection. The figure for the major exporters is reduced by 0.8m t, to 54.4m (69.6m), mainly because of lower projections in the CIS. Compared with the last GMR, there are reductions in the stocks forecasts for China and India, but the carryovers in both are expected to remain large, with those in India still much higher than the Government s minimum desired level. Trade The forecast of world wheat trade in 2012/13 is virtually unchanged from the last Market Report, at 132.7m t. This is down by 13.3m t from the previous year s record, as global feed wheat trade is not expected to be as high. Nevertheless, upward revisions for South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam reflect continued strong import demand for alternatives to high priced maize. Larger than previously estimated domestic production reduces the import forecast for Uzbekistan, while the figure for Egypt is trimmed because of ample stocks following heavy purchases during 2011/12. projection for Canada (July/June) is lifted by the same amount, to 18.9m t (18.1m), due to higher production and anticipated strong demand. Because of a lower production forecast, exports by Russia are reduced by 0.5m t, to 8.5m (21.6m). Even though US exports are so far lagging last year s levels, smaller surpluses in the Black Sea region are expected to boost sales as the season progresses, and exports (July/June) are forecast to increase by 5.1m t, to 33.0m. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS World wheat markets remained mostly bullish during August, bolstered by deteriorating US maize production prospects and falling expectations for Black Sea wheat crops. Concerns were mainly due to potentially higher feed wheat demand as global maize supplies tighten and a switch to alternative origins when export availabilities in the Black Sea region run thin. Despite strong early season sales, Black Sea export potential was still seen as much lower than last year and traders speculated about possible measures to prevent local shortfalls. In any case, at the current pace of exports, availabilities were soon expected to become short, with traders noting few quotations for deferred positions US$ / t US DNS 14% US HRW (ord) US SRW EU (France) Wheat: Export prices* August 2011 August y/y change, m t Wheat: Forecast 2012/13 (July/June) export changes Turkey Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug-12 *US HRW/SRW (fob Gulf), US DNS (fob PNW), France (fob Rouen) India Canada EU US Australia Argentina Ukraine Kazakhstan Russia The past month saw a pick-up in sales by India, especially to feed manufacturers in Pacific Asia, and its export forecast is raised by 0.3m t, to 3.8m (1.0m.). The US futures continued to respond to movements in maize, including a pull-back after recent strong advances. Steep falls in Minneapolis-based spring wheat reflected better than expected yields from the rapidly progressing harvest. Hard Red Winter (11.5% protein, Gulf) quotations were around US$6 higher, at US$373 fob, while Dark Northern Spring (14.0%, PNW) prices fell US$23, to US$381. Prices in the EU were underpinned by worries about the impact of recent wet conditions on yields and quality, although gains were restricted by reports that outcomes were better than expected in France and Germany. Grade 1 export prices in France increased by US$17, to US$336 fob (Rouen). Escalating concerns about unfavourably dry conditions supported values in Australia, but new crop quotations in Argentina eased following beneficial rains. While global 6

7 IGC GMR August 2012 export values remained firm, weaker prices for premium North American milling wheats contributed to a marginal net fall in the IGC GOI wheat sub-index. The Black Sea region featured regularly in reported trade, including in purchases by Egypt s GASC, with Russia and Ukraine entirely filling two tenders at prices well below bids from other origins. Purchases by Algeria and Iraq were expected to come mainly from the EU. There was an increase in interest in India s exports, including large sales to Asian feed manufacturers. DURUM An increased crop estimate for the EU is outweighed by a lower figure for Canada, and the forecast of world 2012/13 durum production is slightly lower than before, at 35.1m t (36.7m). The harvest was completed in the EU and higher than anticipated yields in France and Italy raise the crop estimate by 0.4m t, to 8.0m, only slightly lower than last year s outturn. Crop quality is reported to be good in Italy and Spain, but below-average in France. Combining progressed quickly in the US, passing the half-way point by the middle of the month compared with about one-fifth normally. Early reports indicate both yields and quality are above average and the production forecast is maintained at 2.3m t (1.4m). Based on an official survey, the forecast of Canada s crop is reduced by 0.3m t, to 4.3m (4.2m). The forecast of world consumption is unchanged from before, at 35.7m t (36.7m) but, because of smaller than previously estimated production, the carryover figure is reduced to 6.8m (7.4m). The world trade projection is the same as last month, at 7.1m t (7.4m), with a small cut in EU imports countered by an increase for Algeria. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS The accelerating harvest weighed on North American durum export quotations during August. In the US, strong yields and quality were reported from the first part of the harvest. Cumulative early season exports lagged last year s levels, but included a recent increase in sales to the EU. Also pressured by declines in other spring wheat values, durum export quotations fell by US$25, to US$370 fob (Lakes). A mostly favourable production outlook contributed to lower futures prices in Canada, with the ICE nearby (October) position down by 9%, to C$301 fob (delivered Saskatchewan/Alberta). Although harvest results in the EU were slightly better than anticipated, prices were underpinned by an overall fall in local availabilities, with additional support from strength in other grains. As at 22 August, dollar export prices in France were quoted US$17 higher than last month, at US$399 fob (La Pallice). COARSE GRAINS MAIZE (CORN) SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Drought has further stressed maize crops across the northern hemisphere, with world production forecast to drop by 4%. Exportable supplies in the US and Ukraine have tightened and, while the next crops in Brazil, Argentina and South Africa may be large, plantings have not yet started and southern hemisphere harvests are still several months away. A smaller crop will result in a drop in consumption, the first since 1993/94, with declines shared between feed and industrial sectors. World stocks are forecast to fall to a six-year low, including a particularly steep decline in the major exporters. Maize: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June Production World maize area is expected to rise by almost 1% in 2012/13 but, with yields deteriorating across the northern hemisphere, production is forecast to fall by 4%, to 838m t, still 14m above the five-year average. The projection is lowered by 26m t from July, including downward revisions for the US, the EU, Ukraine and India, only partly offset by increases for Brazil and South Africa. See: Hot and mostly dry weather continued across the key US states, with just 23% of the crop rated good/excellent by 7

8 GMR August 2012 IGC 19 August, a fraction of last year s 57%. Despite a 5% increase in sowings, the rise in harvested area may be limited to just 1%, with many fields abandoned or cut for silage. Assuming abandonment rises to 12%, up from the five-year average of 8% and, with yields at about 8.0 t/ha, production is forecast to drop to 275.0m t (313.9m), down by 25m from before and well below the five-year average of 320m Maize: US production, area and yields m t m ha tons < Production Yield > Harvested area > 37 /ha / / / /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) The crop forecast for Canada is lowered by 1.0m t, to 12.0m (10.7m), due to earlier dryness in Ontario, the major producing province. Overall yields are forecast to be below trend, but increased plantings should still result in an increase in production. The EU production forecast is cut by 5.8m t, to 59.9m (65.5m), curtailed by overly hot and dry weather in central and southern Europe. The worst affected are Hungary, Romania and Italy, but prospects in France have improved. At 6.4 t/ha, yields are forecast to drop by 12% from last year s record, to their lowest since 2007/08. Above normal temperatures and insufficient rainfall stressed crops and further reduced yield potential in southern and eastern parts of Ukraine. A 20% rise in plantings had raised hopes for a larger crop and higher exportable surplus in 2012/13 but, after this season s poor weather, production is forecast to drop to 20.0m t (22.8m), down 1.0m from before. While recent weather across China s northeastern provinces has been mostly favourable, up to 10% of crops have been affected by serious pest infestations caused by earlier wet conditions; the production forecast is unchanged from before, at 195.0m t (192.8m). In India, where monsoon rains have been significantly below average and are likely to lead to reduced plantings, the crop projection is cut by 2.0m t, to 20.0m (21.3m). With sowing in Argentina due to start in September, farmers remain concerned about recent low revenues, rising costs and earlier dryness in some regions. However, producers are likely to be encouraged by current high prices, which may restrict the drop in plantings to around 5%. With yields expected to recover from the lows of last year, production is forecast at 25.0m t (21.0m). Due to high prices, full-year plantings in Brazil are forecast to increase by around 3%. First (summer) crop seeding, due to start in October, is likely to decline due to strong competition from soyabeans, but plantings of the second (winter) crop should increase, especially after the exceptionally good results from the most recent harvest. With average yields projected to be slightly lower than the 2011/12 record, production is forecast to dip to 72.0m t (72.8m). On the basis of normal weather and a potential increase in plantings, production in South Africa is forecast to rebound to 13.0m t (11.0m) m t Maize: World supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, United States Consumption A smaller crop and lower than average carry-in is expected to support prices and limit demand during 2012/13. Following sharply lower production estimates, the world consumption forecast is cut by 25m t, to 853m (870m), the first decline since 1993/94. World feed use is forecast to fall to 480m t (489m), with industrial consumption projected at 239m (248m). The US consumption forecast is lowered by 14m t, to 253m (278m), a six-year low, with feed/residual use down by 11.6m, to 104.0m, and industrial demand seen 13.8m lower, at 142.8m. Use for fuel ethanol is forecast to decline by 10%, to 114.3m t, the lowest in four years (see Market Focus). With a smaller domestic crop and higher import costs, consumption in the EU is forecast to contract to 65.6m t (69.0m), down by 6.2m from July, including 46.6m (50.4m) for feed. The forecast for China is lowered by 2.0m t, to 200.2m (192.9m). Slowing demand for starch products and rising input costs have reportedly led to some industrial processors operating at a loss in recent months. Some plants are operating at well below capacity, while others have been idled. Growth in industrial demand is therefore likely to be slower than in recent years, rising m t

9 IGC GMR August 2012 to 53.0m t (50.0m). With strong competition from wheat and falling pork prices, the feed use forecast is lowered by 1.0m t, to 131.0m (126.4m). Maize: 2012/13 forecast changes in consumption y/y change, m t Industrial Feed Total BRAZIL CHINA Stocks EU US WORLD World maize inventories (respective marketing years) are expected to be very tight at the end of 2012/13, dropping to a six-year low of 120m t (134m). At 33.6m t (41.3m), stocks in the four major exporters (Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the US) are projected at their lowest in nine years. world maize trade in 2012/13 (July/June) is forecast to drop to a three-year low. At 90.3m t, the forecast is down 6.4m from before and 4.7m below the estimate for 2011/12, which has been increased to reflect latest available data. Import forecasts for a number of countries have been lowered. High import prices and an expected large crop are expected to limit shipments to China to 2.0m t (4.7m), down by 3.0m from before. Some cargoes which have been contracted for shipment at well below current prices will be delivered, but some may be sold back to traders at a substantial profit. Reduced availabilities in Ukraine and Serbia may restrict imports by the EU and the forecast is lowered by 1.0m t, to 5.5m (5.4m). Small downward revisions are made to a number of other importers, including for South Korea, Chinese Taipei, Mexico and North Africa. In contrast, imports by the US are forecast 0.3m t higher than before, at a record 1.6m (0.7m). Some livestock producers have recently bought maize from Brazil, while imports from Canada are also likely. US marketing year exports (September/August) are forecast at a 19-year low of 34.0m t (39.4m), down from the 49.0m five-year average and compared to a peak of 63.0m in 2007/08. On a July/June basis, US market share has slipped considerably in recent years, from around 64% in 2005/06 and 2006/07, to a projected 37% in 2012/13. The global stocks forecast is up by 5m t compared to July, boosted by an increased projection for Brazil, where supplies are expected to be lifted by a large 2012/13 crop. The forecast of US carryovers is little changed from last month, at 16.4m t (25.9m), a 17-year low and equivalent to just 6% of total disappearance, likely representing pipeline minimums m t Maize: World closing stocks US Others China 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Maize: Exporter market share (July/June) Others Ukraine Brazil Argentina US 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) /78 82/83 87/88 92/93 97/98 02/03 07/08 12/13 (f'cast) Trade With smaller crops in the US and Ukraine likely to result in below average exportable supplies and high prices, The recent harvest of bumper 2011/12 second (winter) crop in Brazil is expected to boost exports in coming months, but volumes will be limited by logistical constraints; exports in the marketing year ending February 2013 are forecast at 14.0m t (8.4m). Due to a reduced harvest, shipments by Argentina during the same period are expected to dip to 14.6m t (15.7m). At 12.2m t (14.5m), exports by Ukraine (October/September) are still forecast to be large but, after recent poor weather, availabilities will be smaller than first thought. 9

10 GMR August 2012 IGC RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Supported by tightening world supplies, maize prices remained close to record highs during August. US quotations were broadly steady, but markets in South America firmed, lifting the IGC GOI maize sub-index by 1% compared to a month ago. Rains in the US were too late to boost drought-damaged crops and, with recent field inspections confirming very poor yield prospects, nearby CME futures posted 4% net gains to record highs. Gulf premiums were weighed by seasonal harvest pressure and strong export competition, offsetting the rise in futures and leaving export quotations unchanged from the last GMR, at US$343 fob. Up River basis levels in Argentina were pressured by increasing country movement and signs that some buyers had mostly covered nearby demand. With US futures higher, nearby export quotations of US$301 fob were up by US$8 from last month, but still at a discount to other leading exporters. In Brazil, Paranagua prices were boosted by strong export demand, although gains were restricted by seasonal pressure and increased farmer selling, as producers tried to release storage capacity. At around US$305 fob (as at 22 August), quotations were up by US$8 over the month, although still around US$38 below equivalent prices at the US Gulf. The tightening outlook for new crop supplies in Ukraine lifted export quotations by around US$15, to US$315 fob. Prices in southern China rose by around 2%, lifted by tight old crop supplies ahead of the next harvest and reports that pest damage was worse than expected. In an attempt to stabilise prices, the State Administration of Grain indicated it would soon release maize from official reserves US$ / t US 3YC, fob Gulf Argentina, fob Up River Maize: Export prices August 2011 August Market Focus: The Renewable Fuel Standard The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) included in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates a minimum volume of biofuels to be blended into transportation fuels, irrespective of market prices. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for administering the RFS. Because of this year s very severe drought, several state governors have formally petitioned the EPA for a partial waiver of the RFS for the next year. The EPA has 90 days to respond from receipt of an official request. A petition for a 50% waiver by the state of Texas was denied by the EPA in $US/gallon US gasoline and ethanol prices Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 *Source: EIA RBOB regular gasoline spot price* CME nearby ethanol futures Current blending economics for ethanol suggest that a waiver of the RFS would have limited impact on maize and ethanol markets. A waiver would make blending non-mandatory, but would not prohibit it. The price ratio of ethanol to gasoline still provides an economic incentive for blenders to use ethanol. According to a recent study by Iowa State University 1, a full waiver of the RFS would result in 7% drop in maize prices and a 5% decline in ethanol production. Recent major changes to the refining industry, namely the replacement of the fuel additive MTBE and the recent rise in production of lower octane fuels, also suggest that waiving the RFS may not greatly reduce ethanol production and blending. Since 2007, oil refineries have predominantly shifted to producing 84 octane motor fuels, which are then blended with ethanol to produce 87 octane (regular) gasoline. With few alternatives, it is uncertain how the industry would switch away from using ethanol as an octane enhancer Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug-12 With some flexibility built into the RFS in order to address unique market conditions, obligations may still be met even if physical blending falls below the mandated minimum. A Renewable Identification Number (RIN) is generated on every gallon of ethanol produced (or imported). RINs accumulated from blending of biofuels in excess of each blender s mandated share,

11 IGC GMR August 2012 can be sold or held for future use. Up to 20% of the current year s obligation may be met by RINs from the previous calendar year. With blending far exceeding the 2011 mandate, some estimates show that up to 10.0bn litres of RINs may be available for application to the non-advanced portion of the 2012 mandate, equivalent to the amount of ethanol produced from 24.0m t of maize. Reflecting stronger demand, RIN prices have surged in recent months. Fuel ethanol: US stocks BARLEY SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 The forecast of world barley production in 2012/13 is 1m t lower than last month, at 130m (134m), with increases for the EU, Argentina and Canada offset by reductions elsewhere, including for Russia, Turkey and Australia bn litres < US ethanol stocks* % of Sep/Aug production > % 12% 10% Tight supplies are expected to restrict global feed use, contributing to a 4% fall in total consumption, at 131m t % 6% At 27.5m t, carryover stocks at the end of 2012/13 are forecast to remain at a below-average level % 2% World trade is projected to drop 16%, to 17.3m t, including a fall in Saudi Arabia s imports /03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 (f'cast) *Source: EIA, IGC Ethanol stocks, built up in recent years, may also be drawn upon if ethanol supplies tighten. Assuming a slight reduction from current levels, ethanol inventories at the end of 2011/12 (September/August) are projected to reach 3.4bn litres, up 20% year-on-year bn litres US maize ethanol production US maize ethanol production RFS mandate* 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) *RFS as calculated for September/August marketing year The ethanol industry has responded to the recent spike in prices by reducing production. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, around 26 plants have been idled, with a number of others operating below capacity. While actual maize consumption by the fuel ethanol sector will depend on the future price relationship between maize, ethanol and gasoline, 2012/13 use is forecast to decline to 114.3m t (127.0m). Despite a drop in output, the existence of ethanol stocks and excess RINs are expected to ensure RFS compliance in 2012 and % Barley: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June, excl. trade in malt Production At 130m t, the 2012/13 world barley production forecast is 1m lower than before, with a 3% drop in output mainly reflecting lower yields in parts of the CIS. Total harvested area is forecast to rise by as much as 6%, to 52.6m ha, including increases in the EU, the CIS, North America and Argentina. However, average yields are forecast to be 9% lower than last year and 5% below the five-year average, at about 2.5 t/ha. See: The EU production forecast is increased by 0.4m t, to 53.0m (51.8m.), boosted by better than expected yields in France, Germany and Poland. Frost damage to winter barley will likely be more than compensated by increased output of spring varieties, higher plantings of which lifted total barley area by 4%, to 12.4m ha. Despite a 6% rise in area, production in the CIS is forecast to fall by 21% due to adverse weather, 11

12 GMR August 2012 IGC especially in Kazakhstan and Ukraine. A severe drought in south-western Ukraine slashed yield potential and, with harvested area dropping to 3.5m ha (3.7m), production is forecast to fall to 6.8m t (9.1m). Dry and hot weather will likely also result in below-average yields in Kazakhstan, with production seen at its lowest in 14 years, at 1.2m t (2.6m). In Russia, harvested area is estimated 12% higher y/y, at about 8.6m ha, as farmers raised plantings in response to high prices and firm demand. With hot and dry conditions still stressing crops across the southern regions and Siberia, the production forecast is trimmed by 1.5m t, to 14.0m (16.9m). Stocks At 27.5m t, world barley stocks at the end of 2012/13 are forecast to be slightly lower from the start of the year. Despite a larger harvest, the carryover in the EU is not expected to recover; at 9.3m t (9.5m), stocks are forecast at half their recent peak at the end of 2009/10. Only small gains are anticipated in the US and Canada, where better crops are being harvested, with ending inventories in both remaining below the five-year average. Following declines in production, stocks are forecast to shrink in Russia and Ukraine. Barley: CIS production Barley: World supply and demand m t m t < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > m t Others Belarus Kazakh. Ukraine Russia /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States 0 Helped by much better planting conditions, sowings in Canada increased by 14%, to 3.0m ha. Assuming yields return to average, production is forecast 10% higher y/y, at 9.2m t, 0.6m higher than before. Harvesting in the US was about two-thirds complete by mid-august, compared with the five-year average of 38%. Plantings increased by over 40% due to better sowing weather in North Dakota, the major producing state. Based on average yields and normal abandonment, production is forecast at 4.8m t (3.4m). Due to stiff price competition from canola, Australia s barley area is forecast marginally lower than last year, at 3.9m ha (4.0m) and production is forecast to decline by 19%, to 7.0m t. In Argentina, plantings were complete by mid-august and recent widespread rains improved crop conditions. Strong demand and good profitability resulted in a sharp rise in area, to 1.6m ha (1.1m), and production is forecast to increase by 37%, to 5.6m t, up by 0.4m from last month. Consumption The forecast of world barley consumption is marginally lower than before, at 131m t, a drop of 4% from last year. Reduced global availabilities, placed at a five-year low, are expected to restrict feed use, especially in the CIS and North Africa. Global feed use is forecast at 86.3m t (90.6m), about 10% below the average in the past ten years. Industrial use is projected to remain broadly steady, at 28.9m t, including 28.2m (28.5m) for brewing. Trade The forecast of 2012/13 world feed and malting barley trade is the same as in the last GMR, at 17.3m t, down sharply from the previous year s high level. After strong purchases in 2011/12, which helped to rebuild reserves, Saudi Arabia is expected to import less in the year ahead, at 7.0m t (8.0m). Larger domestic malting barley supplies will see EU imports return to a more normal level, at 0.4m t (0.7m). Because of reduced surpluses, exports by Australia, the EU and Russia are projected to fall. However an increase in output in Argentina could see its shipments reach a new record, at 4.1m t (3.3m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS EU feed barley export quotations increased by US$18, to US$306 fob (Rouen), supported by tightening Black Sea availabilities, solid export demand and firmer wheat prices. Black Sea export quotations were nominally unchanged at US$295 fob. Trading activity was reportedly light, with many participants unwilling to quote prices, especially for deferred shipment. Feed prices in Australia were underpinned by uncertainties about the next crop; export values were around US$9 higher, at US$313 fob (Eastern States). In Argentina, larger plantings and good crop prospects weighed on prices, with new crop (January) values down US$5 at around US$285 fob (Up River). Similarly, malting barley prices dropped by US$10, to US$315 fob (Up River). In Canada, a favourable new crop outlook contributed to a 12

13 IGC GMR August 2012 US$10 fall in malting export quotations, to US$330 fob (Vancouver, October) Aug-11 US$ / t Australia - (South Australia) EU (France) 21-Sep Oct-11 Feed Barley: Export prices August 2011 August Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug Reflecting worsening crop prospects, the forecast of world consumption in 2012/13 is reduced by 2.9m t, to 58.7m, but is still 3% higher y/y. Much of the downward adjustment is in feed use, cut by 2.0m t from last time, to 24.0m (22.9m). US consumption is lowered by 0.8m t, to 4.0m (4.1m), including a 0.7m reduction for feed, at 1.8m (1.9m). World food use is down by 0.6m t from before, to 27.2m (26.3m), including lower figures for India and Nigeria. As the projected increase in world availabilities is broadly matched by use, the 2012/13 carryover will be little changed, at 1.7m t (1.8m). World trade in 2012/13 (July/June) is forecast to expand by 27%, to 5.6m t, but this is markedly reduced from July due to a smaller forecast of deliveries to Mexico placed 1.0m lower, at 1.6m (1.4m). Because of reduced crop prospects, the US (July/June) export projection is cut by 1.0m t, to 2.0m (1.7m). SORGHUM SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 Difficult weather conditions in some producers lead to a further 3.1m t cut in the forecast of global production in 2012/13. Nevertheless, at 58.6m t, it is still 5% larger y/y, mainly reflecting bigger outturns in the Americas. While US plantings increased by 14%, the harvested area is forecast to expand by 30%, due to reduced abandonment. However, with yield potential compromised by adverse weather, output is forecast to drop by 1.1m t, to 6.5m. Sorghum: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June 5.6 In India, where sorghum is sown in both summer (kharif) and winter seasons, deficient monsoon rains have impeded kharif plantings. However, assuming total area increases slightly, production in 2012/13, while cut slightly from before, is projected to rise to 6.4m t (6.1m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS US sorghum export values were supported by deteriorating production prospects, but most of the rise was linked to strength in maize futures and prices at the US Gulf rose by US$17, to US$335 fob. Combining was completed in Argentina and, similar to the rise in the US, Up River export quotations increased by US$18, to US$244. Values in Australia were underpinned by strength in neighbouring markets, especially wheat, with additional support from good export demand, gaining US$18, to US$299 fob (Brisbane) Aug-11 US$ / t US maize, fob Gulf US sorghum, fob Gulf 21-Sep Oct-11 Sorghum: Export prices August 2011 August Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar-12 OATS SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 World oats production in 2012/13 is projected to decline to 22.8m t (23.3m), mainly because of an expected fall in Russia, to 4.9m (5.3m), where reduced average yields outweighed larger sowings. Owing to downgraded 04-Apr May May Jun Jul Aug

14 GMR August 2012 IGC prospects in Sweden, the forecast of EU output is cut to 7.7m t, broadly unchanged from the previous year. In the US, harvesting of an increased area is nearly complete and output is projected to rise by 25%, to 1.0m t; with key producing states mainly unaffected by hot, dry weather, yields are expected to be higher. Oats: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June 2.2 Partly reflecting smaller than expected EU availabilities, global oats consumption in 2012/13 is cut slightly, to 23.3m (23.4m). With world use expected to be steady, the fall in production will cut ending stocks to 3.5m t (4.0m). Global trade in 2012/13 (July/June) is projected at 2.2m t (2.2m), including US imports at 1.6m (1.6m). RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS US (CME) oats futures posted 5% net gains since the last Market Report. Prices closely followed movements in maize, with the high cost of that grain seen boosting feed use. Hot and dry weather was mildly supportive, although with much of the crop already combined the potential impact on yields was seen as small. Official crop forecasts for the US and Canada were broadly in line with expectations. RYE Global rye consumption in 2012/13 is forecast to expand by 2%, to 14.8m t. Within the total, food use is projected to decline to 5.5m t (5.9m), but feed consumption is seen increasing to 6.5m (6.1m). Rye: Supply and demand summary m t 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use of which: Feed Industrial Food Closing stocks Trade a) a) July/June Additionally, good demand for bioethanol use in the EU (Germany) should underpin increased industrial consumption, forecast at 2.2m t (2.0m). With the projected increase in demand expected to exceed the rise in supplies, the 2012/13 world carryover will fall slightly, to 0.8m t (0.9m). World trade in 2012/13 (July/June) is forecast at 370,000 t (400,000 t), including smaller EU imports m t Rye: World supply and demand < Consumption < Production Stocks > m t SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/ /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) 0.0 At 14.7m t (13.8m), world rye production in 2012/13 is projected 0.2m lower than in July, owing to a reduced forecast for Russia, where yield potential was curtailed by adverse weather. Output in the CIS is now expected to decline marginally, to 4.9m t, but this will be more than offset by a much improved EU outturn; after two consecutive annual decreases, output is forecast 16% higher, at 8.0m, including bigger crops in Germany and Poland. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS In mostly quiet activity, domestic new crop rye prices in the EU (Germany) were quoted at 218 (US$274). Harvesting made good progress and early results showed higher than previously expected milling quality. 14

15 IGC GMR August 2012 RICE SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 World rice production in 2012/13 is projected to rise to a record of around 466m t (464m). However, at just 0.4%, the y/y expansion will be markedly smaller than in earlier years. After the previous year s solid output-led expansion, consumption in 2012/13 is set to increase only modestly, to 465m t (459m) With global production and use broadly in balance, the world 2012/13 carryover is set to show little change, including only a modest rise in major exporters stocks. World trade in 2013 is projected to rise only slightly, to 34.8m t, amid limited prospects for bigger shipments to markets in Asia and Africa. m t Rice: Supply and demand < World consumption < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > m t (104.3m). Nevertheless, this would still broadly match the 2008/09 outcome and be the third largest on record m. tons (milled basis) Rabi Kharif Rice: India production by crop 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Larger sowings could boost output in China, to 142.5m t (140.5m), while key exporters in the region are also likely to bring in larger crops. This includes Thailand typically the world s leading supplier where continued state paddy intervention buying is expected to boost main crop sowings. Assuming weather patterns are favourable, total production in 2012/13 is projected to rise by 4%, to 21.2m t. Above-average crops are also expected in Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam Rice: Supply and demand summary m t (milled basis) 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks Production Total supply Total use Production Global rice production in 2012/13 is projected to rise marginally y/y, to a record of about 466m t (464m), underpinned by a modest expansion of plantings and a marginal improvement in yields. Nevertheless, the forecast expansion in output will be much smaller than in recent years, as increases in some regions, including the Americas and Africa, are partly outweighed by a marginal contraction in output in Asia. Rice output in India is forecast to decline for the first time in three years. A recent improvement in monsoon precipitation has allowed fieldwork to advance, but rains are still expected to remain well below the long-term (50- year) average over the entire season. With plantings expected to contract slightly, main (kharif) crop output in 2012/13 is forecast to decline. While this could be partly offset by a larger winter-sown (rabi) outturn, total production in 2012/13 is projected to fall to 99.0m t Closing stocks Trade a) a) January/December Production in the Americas is forecast to rebound. In Brazil, output is estimated to have fallen steeply in 2011/12 on account of a smaller harvested area and reduced yields. However, assuming that seeding expands and productivity levels advance, output in 2012/13 is set to recover, to 8.7m t (7.9m). In the US, where harvesting of this year s crop is underway, production is expected to rise by 4%, to 6.1m t, reflecting better yields. Rice output in sub-saharan Africa is forecast at an all-time high of 13.1m t (12.5m). Consumption At around 465m t, world rice use in 2012/13 is projected to increase by around 1% y/y. However, this will represent a marked slowing on earlier years, and reflects the likelihood of only small increases in Asia s main 15

16 GMR August 2012 IGC consumers. In India, where deficient monsoon rains are expected to negatively impact kharif crop prospects, consumption is forecast to rise marginally, to 95.0m t. The projected recovery in production in the Americas will likely support a rebound in demand, while a further increase in use in sub-saharan Africa is expected. Stocks As world output and use are projected to be broadly in balance, ending stocks in 2012/13 are set to show little change from the year before. In recent years, changes in stock levels in the major exporters have helped to explain movements in the world rice carryover. In 2012/13, this component is projected to rise only slightly, to 34.9m t (34.4m), as another solid increase in Thailand s stocks, to 11.8m (9.1m), is outweighed by a fall in India s 2012/13 carryover, to 19.1m (21.7m). Closing stocks in 2012/13 are forecast to rise slightly in Vietnam and Pakistan, but the US carryover is set to decline. Among the leading importers of recent years, inventories in Indonesia and the Philippines are projected to fall despite the likelihood of better outturns, likely ensuring both remain active in the world market. Trade World rice trade in calendar-2013 is projected to edge higher, to 34.8m t, the second-largest on record. Prospects for only a limited expansion is centred on expectations for little change in shipments to key regions. Total deliveries to Asia are projected to be broadly unchanged on the year before, at 16.7m t; within the total, imports by Far East Asia are expected to fall slightly, to 9.3m (9.4m), as larger shipments to some markets are outweighed by smaller purchases by others, notably China. Despite its self-sufficiency aim, an analysis of its fundamental balance sheet suggests that, in the absence of a big increase in production, the Philippines will continue to rely on the world market to meet a portion of its needs, preventing a further marked fall in its inventories. Nevertheless, at 1.3m t (1.2m), its imports would still be much lower than in previous years. Indonesia was the world s largest buyer in While purchases are expected to be much smaller this year and in 2013, recent reports of an agreement with Vietnam to purchase up to 1.0m t if required suggest that the country could remain a key buyer in future to ensure adequate buffer reserves. At 1.4m t, shipments in 2013 are expected to be similar to the previous year, but less than half the amount in Deliveries to sub-saharan Africa are projected to remain high in 2013, but will be limited by bigger crops in key buyers. This includes Nigeria, whose imports are forecast to total 2.4m t (2.5m), ensuring the country remains the world s largest importer. Assuming that India s main 2012/13 outturn is of an above-average size, it should remain a major exporter of lower-quality white rice. However, competition from Thai exporters will likely be stronger, and shipments are expected to fall to 6.3m t (7.3m). With state reserves boosted by intervention buying for the main 2012/13 crop, Thailand s export availability could potentially be large; assuming that significant inventory releases take place, then its shipments should recover markedly, to 8.0m t (6.5m). Nevertheless, they would remain 1.0m t below the five-year average. RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS The IGC-GOI rice sub-index advanced marginally since late-july, by 1%, to 223 points, although markets were somewhat mixed over the period. In Thailand, export prices for white rice were slightly weaker, benchmark 100% B offered just $2 lower, at $578 fob. Lingering speculation that the government would attempt to sell a significant portion of its intervention reserves through open tenders weighed on market sentiment. However, this was partly offset by renewed export optimism, boosted by the August sale of 70,000 t to Iraq, together with reports of continuing negotiations to sell rice to China and Indonesia through diplomatic channels. In contrast, parboiled rice export values rose on solid export demand from African buyers, including Nigeria, the sortexed 100% grade up by $47, to a near-two month high of $607 fob. Thailand s export hopes will likely also have been buoyed by the firmer market in Vietnam, which resulted in a narrowing of Thai-Vietnam premiums, although still remaining historically high. Underpinned by good export prospects, including reports that Indonesia s state logistics agency had reached an agreement to buy up to 1m t from Vietnam if required, quotations for 25% broken rose by 10%, to a six-month high of $411 fob. While offers for white rice in Pakistan declined on limited buying interest, export values in India were steady to marginally firmer, aided by some logistical difficulties at ports due to the monsoon and, more recently, fresh demand from Africa Aug-11 US$ / t Thai 100% Grade B Thai 5% Broken Viet 5% Broken Pakistan IRRI 25% 21-Sep Oct-11 Rice: Export prices August 2011 August Nov Dec Jan Feb-12 Source: Jackson Son & Co. (London) Ltd; other trader quotations; various industry sources 07-Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug

17 IGC GMR August 2012 OILSEEDS SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 World 2012/13 soyabean production is projected at about 255m t, up by over 7% y/y as an expected rebound in South American output more than compensates for another disappointing US crop. Expanding feed demand in China will, as in recent years, continue to shape world soyabean trade, forecast at a record 94.0m t, up 2% y/y. Global soyameal trade is expected to be little changed on 2011/12, at 57.2m t. A record outturn in Canada should more than offset disappointing rapeseed/canola crops elsewhere, as global production rises slightly, to 60.6m t, broadly in line with the 2009/10 record. Larger shipments to the EU and China are set to boost world rapeseed/canola trade by 5% y/y, to 12.5m t. SOYABEANS A tightening fundamental outlook coupled with solid export demand has underpinned a bullish market tone in recent months as nearby US futures climbed to a record high. Strength in international values will likely encourage farmers in the southern hemisphere to boost plantings for next year s harvest. In addition, assuming that average yields are much improved on the previous year s drought affected outcomes, South American output is expected to recover by as much as onequarter, to 142m t, with record outturns likely in both Argentina and Brazil. The IGC forecast of US soyabean production is again cut and, at 73.0m t, is some 12% lower than in the previous year. Despite recent precipitation which was termed mildly beneficial, the heavy decline reflects the impact of this season s mostly hot and dry weather on yield potential, especially as this coincided with the crucial pod setting stage for the crop. By mid-august, just 31% of the crop was considered to be in good or excellent condition compared to 59% one year before and representing the worst ratings for this time of the year since Furthermore, some two-fifths of soyabeans were termed poor or very poor compared to just 14% one year earlier. Soyabeans: US crop condition ratings (Mid-August) and yields % t/ha 85 < Crop rated good/excellent Average yield > World soyabean production is projected to rebound in 2012/13, by more than 7% y/y, to around 255m t. However, the forecast is especially tentative as it is centred on hopes for larger crops in South America which will not be harvested until 2013 after this year s disappointing outcomes, more than compensating for a smaller, drought-affected US outturn Average 31%: 2nd lowest on record Soyabeans: Production and trade (f'cast) m t World production > < World trade a) m t Strong demand from key Far East Asian buyers is expected to support a further expansion in world trade in 2012/13 (October/September) to an all-time high of 94.0m t, around 2% higher than in the previous year /04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) a) October/September Over the past decade, the rapid expansion of global trade has coincided with marked growth in deliveries to China as feed production there has increased dramatically to meet the demands of the rapidly expanding animal feed sector. This component of demand, together with increased consumption of vegetable oils, is expected to further increase the country s imports in 2012/13, of around 3%, to a record 58.8m t. This will more than compensate for limited growth prospects elsewhere, including in the EU, where 17

18 GMR August 2012 IGC imports are tentatively forecast at 10.8m t, broadly similar to the previous year. RAPESEED/CANOLA 80 m t Soyabeans: Far East Asia imports Reflecting better than anticipated yield prospects in some regions, the forecast of global rapeseed/canola production in 2012/13 is lifted by 0.4m t from previously, to 60.6m, an increase of 1% on the previous year Others Rapeseed/canola: World area and production /05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) China Owing to prospects for a disappointing outturn, the US export forecast is cut by more than 5.0m t, to just 30.2m, representing a fall of nearly 20% y/y and, if realised, the smallest amount in six years. However, as global trade is still expected to rise boosted by China s needs South American exporters are expected to more than compensate under the assumption that they bring in larger crops; exports by Argentina and Brazil are tentatively projected to increase to 13.0m t (7.9m) and 37.5m (37.2m), respectively. SOYAMEAL The projection of world soyameal trade in 2012/13 is cut marginally, to 57.2m t, broadly in line with last year s record. Deliveries to the EU are forecast to rise by 3% y/y, to 22.6m t, largely because of generally tighter availabilities of alternative feed ingredients. Expanding animal feed requirements in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines will boost growth in imports by those countries, but will likely be outweighed by smaller deliveries to Vietnam, owing to an increased domestic crush. Consequently, shipments to Far East Asia are tentatively projected to be broadly steady on 2011/12, at 16.2m t. Tighter US soyabean supplies will restrict availabilities for crushing. Accordingly, US soyameal exports are forecast to fall heavily, by about one-quarter, to just 6.4m t (8.6m), the smallest in nine years. However, bigger sales by Argentina which are expected to account for around half of world trade will more than compensate, with exports forecast at a record 28.0m t (25.4m). In addition, Brazil s shipments will remain high: at 14.1m t, they will be slightly smaller than in the previous year but 0.8m above the five-year average. m t < Production Harvested area > m ha 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) In the EU, the production estimate for 2012/13 is raised slightly from last month, to reflect better than expected yields in some countries, notably in France, Germany and Poland. However, at 18.3m t, production would still decline for the third successive year, by more than 3% y/y, and be the smallest crop since 2006/07 owing to earlier adverse weather which greatly reduced yield potential in some producers. Production estimates for 2012/13 are raised slightly for Belarus and Ukraine. However, output in the latter will still fall again, for the fourth consecutive year, by some 30%, to 1.0m t, partly due to adverse weather conditions earlier in the season. The decline also reflects the continuing shift by farmers away from winter-sown crops that are often susceptible to winterkill to those planted during spring, notably maize and soyabeans. For the region as a whole, output is forecast at 2.9m t, a fall of 6% y/y. More than offsetting smaller outturns in Europe are increases elsewhere, including an expected record outturn in Canada, forecast to rise by 10% on the previous year to 15.6m t, due to expanded sowings. Recent crop progress reports indicate that, while early yields varied in some areas, beneficial weather aided crop maturation with harvesting now underway in Alberta and Manitoba. In Australia, the other key exporter, production in 2012/13 is projected to increase slightly, to 2.9m t (2.8m). Global trade in rapeseed/canola in 2012/13 (October/September) is forecast to rise by 5% y/y, to a fresh all-time high of 12.5m t, mainly on expectations of

19 IGC GMR August 2012 larger shipments to the key markets of the EU and Far East Asia (China) m t Rapeseed/canola: Production and trade World production > < World trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) m t RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Reflecting a supportive fundamental outlook, world soyabean prices posted solid net gains since the last Market Report, the IGC GOI soyabean sub-index advancing by nearly 3%. Against a backdrop of tight global supplies, good export demand underpinned US soyabean futures, with strong new and old crop buying interest from China particularly supportive. After the steep declines in crop condition ratings in recent months, rains and cooler weather were expected to limit further losses, triggering heavy profit taking and technical selling at times. However, with crop ratings already at their second worst on record, little recovery in yield potential was envisaged, providing underlying price support. This was reflected in USDA s supply and demand update on 10 August, which saw another cut to the 2012 production forecast. Solid domestic soyameal demand added to the positive tone. At 3.4m t (3.2m), the EU is expected to remain the world s largest importer, as another disappointing crop and an associated tightening of domestic market supplies, stimulates additional buying interest. Shipments to Far East Asia are forecast to rise to 5.8m t (5.6m), boosted by strong demand from China due to a smaller outturn its imports seen rising by around onefifth, to 2.6m. Deliveries to Japan and Pakistan are expected to be broadly in line with the previous year, at 2.3m t and 0.8m, respectively. Elsewhere, imports by Mexico are forecast to climb by around 15%, to 1.5m t US$ / t Brazil, fob Paranagua USA No.2, fob Gulf Argentina, fob Up River Soyabeans: Export prices August 2011 August With a record crop expected, 2012/13 (October/September) exports by Canada are forecast to rise by 4% y/y, to a record 8.6m t equivalent to around 70% of world trade. However, increases beyond that level will likely be restricted by tight availabilities owing to strong domestic demand and relatively thin carry-in stocks. Australia s exports are tentatively expected to be in line with the previous year s record of 2.3m t, including continued strong demand from the EU Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb-12 In Canada, ICE (Winnipeg) canola futures rose by 3%, with activity often influenced by trends in soyabeans. There was additional support from solid domestic crusher demand and increased third country buying interest. Despite disappointing early harvest results, a record crop was still anticipated, capping overall price gains. 07-Mar Apr May May Jun Jul Aug-12 19

20 GMR August 2012 IGC MARKET FOCUS VOLATILITY IN GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FUTURES - UPDATE Historic volatility in grains and oilseeds futures is statistically measured as the standard deviation, expressed in percentage terms, of daily price movements (nearby contract) over a specified period 2. Based on its average level in the three months to 22 August, day-to-day volatility in grains and oilseeds futures markets as measured by HV20 is significantly more pronounced than in the prior three-month period. However, focusing on period averages does mask somewhat contrasting trends during the past three months and across different commodities. Historic volatility (HV20): Grains and oilseeds 23 May August 2012 * further, HV20 at a 17-month high in mid-august. Recent precipitation was termed beneficial, likely prompting uncertainty about the scale of crop losses and contributing to continued volatility. More recently, day-today price swings eased, but still remained high May-12 Volatility, HV 20 (%) 30-May-12 CME corn and soyabeans: HV20 23 May August Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug-12 CME Corn CME Soyabeans 08-Aug Aug Aug-12 three-month three-month average to 22 Aug average to 23 May % Chg CME Wheat KCBT Wheat MGE Wheat MATIF Wheat CME Corn CME Soyabeans CME Rough Rice ICE Canola BDM Palm Oil ICE Brent Crude Oil * Averages US maize (corn) futures have scored strong net gains since late-may, the nearby position advancing by nearly 40%, as concerns about irreversible crop damage due to adverse weather across the Corn Belt more than offset pressure from mildly bearish factors, including world economic growth worries. As futures trended higher, day-to-day price swings were generally larger, HV20 reaching a near-12 month high on 13 July. Since then, volatility has eased significantly, likely reflecting the fact that, despite profit taking and fund long-liquidation, futures have traded in a relatively narrow range. This is likely related to greater knowledge and less uncertainty about the scale of US crop losses, resulting in reduced volatility. Wheat markets were volatile during the past three months owing to various competing influences. Deepening worries about production prospects in key producers and exporters, especially in the Black Sea region, led futures sharply higher, more than offsetting occasional pressure from northern hemisphere harvest progress, notably in the US, as well as external factors. Movements in wheat, especially at CME, were also closely tied to the maize market, adding to volatility there, while trading in the nearby July position at MGE was highly volatile ahead of its expiration. More recently, however, daily price swings were less pronounced at all exchanges. It appears likely that as it became increasingly clear that production prospects in Russia had been compromised by poor weather, volatility eased, while reduced day-to-day price swings in maize were a key influence Volatility, HV 20 (%) US wheat futures: HV20 23 May August 2012 US soyabean futures have also rallied during 2012, including a net gain of about 30% in the past three months, on reduced yield potential and an associated tightening of world market supplies. Through to late-july, volatility, as measured by HV20, trended higher. While day-to-day price swings in maize futures eased markedly thereafter, volatility in soyabean futures increased May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug-12 MGE KCBT CME 08-Aug Aug Aug-12 2 In this case, taken to be 20 days and referred to as HV20. 20

21 IGC GMR August 2012 OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Dry bulk ocean freight rates fell sharply in all market sectors during August, pressured by surplus tonnage amid a slowdown in chartering activity. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined by 28%, to its lowest in six months, while the average of three grains-carrying sectors fell by 26%. Despite some recovery in the second half of the month, rising tonnage availability and slow demand saw Panamax rates fall sharply in both basins, with a continuing flow of ballasters from the Pacific into the Atlantic. Transatlantic roundtrips were quoted 36% lower, at about $6,100 daily. New Atlantic business included a wheat cargo from the Black Sea (Novorossiysk) to the Egyptian Mediterranean at US$12.00/t. In the Pacific, a North Pacific roundtrip was fixed at a low $4,500 daily. Excess tonnage weighed on Atlantic Handysize/Supramax rates, notably on transatlantic routes from the US Gulf. Grains business included two Handysize maize shipments from Brazil to Algeria and from Argentina (Up River) to Libya, at $24.50/t and at $32.00/t, respectively. In the Pacific, a short period contract for four-to-six months was settled at about $8,500 daily. Capesize rates were pressured by weaker demand for minerals, especially in China, and owners were reported to be idling less efficient vessels. As a result, the average of four major timecharter rates almost halved. Average of dry bulk indices*, excluding capesize August 2011 August 2012 NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS LATEST NATIONAL TRADE - RELATED MEASURES ARGENTINA: As published in the Boletin Oficial (No ), dated 10 August 2012, the government raised the export tax for soyabean oil-based biodiesel by 12 percentage points, to 32%. Additionally, it was also announced that temporary imports of soybeans would be allowed in order to further utilise crush capacity. A copy of the document from the Boletin Oficial, which contains further details (in Spanish language), is located at the following link: BANGLADESH: On 9 August 2012, the Commerce Secretary announced the extension of a ban on the export of most varieties of rice, except for aromatic types, until June Restrictions were imposed in May 2008 to ensure domestic supplies and stabilise prices. CÔTE D IVOIRE: In early August 2012, the government suspended rice import taxes for a period of three months in an effort to ease high food prices. JAPAN: The government stated on 22 August 2012 that the domestic sales price for imported milling wheat would be increased in October 2012, by around 3%, to an average of 50,130/t ($630). UKRAINE: The Ministry of Agriculture announced on 1 August 2012 that it had signed a pledge with trading companies to provide two months notice of any restrictions on grain exports. 2,000 1,750 Average Indices OTHER NATIONAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 1,500 1,250 1, Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul-12 *Grain carrying sectors (Panamax, Supramax, Handysize) 21-Aug Aug-12 CHINA: The State Grain Administration stated on 10 August 2012 that unspecified volumes of maize and rice were to be released from state reserves to ensure domestic market supplies and stabilise prices. On 21 August, the government announced the provision of an additional CNY200m ($31.8m) in subsidies to fight pest infestation affecting maize and rice crops. MOROCCO: On 22 August 2012, the Ministry of Agriculture extended its domestic soft wheat procurement programme by one month, until the end of September 2012, with the purchase price remaining at MAD2,900/t ($330). THAILAND: On 27 July 2012, the Minister of Commerce announced the extension of the government s paddy 21

22 GMR August 2012 IGC (rice) pledging scheme until the end of September 2012, including a white rice intervention price unchanged from before, at THB15,000/t ($470) and fragrant rice, also steady, at THB20,000 ($627). Shortly after, on 30 July, the Office of Agriculture Economics stated that the rice pledging scheme would be extended to cover the 2012/13 main crop harvest, likely to begin in October The Ministry of Commerce subsequently announced, in early August, that a government committee recently had agreed to a plan to sell rice from state reserves through a series of auctions. In an effort to boost to achieve sales and boost exports, it was announced that no minimum price would be set. USA: On 20 August 2012, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requested comments on a petition by the Governors of Arkansas and North Carolina for a partial waiver of the volume requirements of the renewable fuel standard (RFS). The EPA will decide on a waiver request within 90 days of it being received, in consultation with the Departments of Agriculture and Energy. For further information, see the following link: ZAMBIA: The Minister of Agriculture stated on 20 August 2012 that the country s strategic maize reserves would be boosted to 1.0m t through its July-October procurement programme to ensure domestic market stability. In addition, it was reported that the government would centralise the issuance of maize export licences in order to improve cross-border trade monitoring. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS CANADA: On 9 August 2012, ICE Futures Canada delisted ICE Western Barley futures and option contracts. The decision was approved by the Board of Directors of the ICE owing to there being no open interest and no trading activity since 23 April An official statement is available at the following link: _notices/aug_9_2012_delisting_western_barley.pdf 22

23 MARKET FOCUS WORLD TRADE IN WHEAT FLOUR World wheat flour trade in 2012/13 (July/June) is forecast at 12.3m t (wheat equivalent), down sharply from the previous year s estimated 13.5m. Imports by Uzbekistan are projected to fall by 0.4m t, to 1.5m, capped by tighter export availabilities in Kazakhstan which normally fills virtually all its neighbour s needs. After above average imports in the past year, Iraq s imports are forecast to dip to 1.0m t (1.4m). Increased import costs may restrict purchases by some countries in sub-saharan Africa, although total purchases are still placed slightly above the five-year average, at 1.6m (1.9m). Because of a smaller crop, exports by Kazakhstan are forecast to drop to 2.8m t, well below those of last year which are estimated to have matched the 2009/10 record of 3.5m. This may help to sustain strong demand for supplies from other countries, including Turkey and the UAE, although their shipments are forecast to recede slightly from the high levels of the past year. Exports by the EU are forecast at 1.3m t, the same as in 2011/12. Wheat flour: World trade '000 tons (wheat equivalent) DESTINATION 09/10 10/11 11/12 (est.) 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE EU Others CIS 2,239 2,450 2,920 2,440 Russia Tajikistan Uzbekistan 1,499 1,415 1,900 1,500 Others N & C AMERICA Canada Cuba Mexico United States Others SOUTH AMERICA 1,298 1,290 1,250 1,310 Bolivia Brazil Others NEAR EAST ASIA 1,614 1,370 1,720 1,370 Iraq 1, ,400 1,000 Yemen Others FAR EAST ASIA 4,341 3,840 3,500 3,730 Afghanistan 1,779 1,327 1,100 1,100 Hong Kong Indonesia 1,005 1, ,100 Korea (N) Korea (S) Mongolia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Others AFRICA 1,872 1,700 2,400 2,000 North Africa Libya Others Sub-Sahara 1,475 1,490 1,880 1,580 Angola Chad Gambia Guinea Somalia Sudan Others OCEANIA UNSPECIFIED , WORLD TOTAL 12,685 11,920 13,550 12,310 Origin: Argentina 1,278 1,286 1,300 1,200 Australia Canada EU (excl. TPA) 1,245 1,155 1,300 1,300 Kazakhstan 3,514 2,526 3,500 2,800 Russia Ukraine USA China Japan Pakistan Turkey 2,602 2,356 3,050 2,800 UAE Others 1,034 1,093 1,080 1,040

24 Table 1 PRODUCTION: TOTAL GRAINS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria < Czech Rep < Denmark < Finland < France < Germany < Greece Hungary < Italy < Poland < Romania < Spain < Sweden < United Kingdom < Other EU < Serbia < Others CIS < Belarus Kazakhstan < Russia < Ukraine < Uzbekistan < Other CIS N & C AMERICA < Canada < Mexico USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Brazil < Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran Syria Turkey < Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia Philippines < Thailand Others South Asia < Afghanistan India < Pakistan Others AFRICA < North Africa < Algeria < Egypt Morocco sub-saharan Africa < Ethiopia Nigeria < South Africa < Tanzania Others OCEANIA < Australia < WORLD TOTAL < Table 2 PRODUCTION: ALL WHEAT COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria < Czech Rep < Denmark France < Germany < Hungary Greece Italy < Poland < Romania < Slovakia Spain < Sweden United Kingdom < Other EU < Serbia Others CIS < Kazakhstan < Russia < Ukraine Other CIS < N & C AMERICA < Canada < Mexico USA < Others T T T T T SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Others South Asia Afghanistan India Pakistan Others AFRICA < North Africa Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia sub-saharan Africa < Ethiopia South Africa < Others OCEANIA < Australia < WORLD TOTAL <

25 Table 3 PRODUCTION: MAIZE (CORN) COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE < Croatia EU < Austria Bulgaria < France < Germany < Greece Hungary < Italy < Romania < Slovakia < Spain < Other EU < Serbia < Others CIS < Ukraine < Other CIS < N & C AMERICA < Canada < Mexico USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina Brazil < Colombia Paraguay Venezula Others NEAR EAST ASIA Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia Philippines < Thailand Vietnam Others South Asia < India < Others AFRICA < North Africa Egypt Others sub-saharan Africa < Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Nigeria South Africa < Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Others OCEANIA Australia Others WORLD TOTAL < Table 4 PRODUCTION: BARLEY COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) (est) EUROPE < EU < Bulgaria < Czech Rep < Denmark < Finland < France < Germany < Hungary Poland < Romania Spain Sweden United Kingdom < Other EU < Others CIS < Belarus Kazakhstan < Russia < Ukraine Other CIS N & C AMERICA < Canada < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran Iraq Syria Turkey < Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Others South Asia India Others AFRICA < North Africa < Algeria < Morocco sub-saharan Africa Ethiopia Others OCEANIA < Australia < New Zealand WORLD TOTAL <

26 Table 5 PRODUCTION: SORGHUM COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE EU France Italy Others CIS T T 0.2 T T N & C AMERICA < Mexico USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Colombia Venezuela Others NEAR EAST ASIA Saudi Arabia Yemen FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia China Thailand Others T T T T T South Asia < India < Pakistan Others AFRICA < North Africa Egypt sub-saharan Africa < Burkina Faso Cameroon Chad Ethiopia Mali Niger Nigeria < South Africa Sudan Tanzania Uganda Others OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL < Table 6 PRODUCTION: OATS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE < EU < Finland Germany Poland Sweden < CIS < Russia < Ukraine N & C AMERICA Canada USA SOUTH AMERICA Argentina NEAR EAST ASIA FAR EAST ASIA China AFRICA OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL < Table 7 PRODUCTION: RYE COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) EUROPE EU Denmark Germany Poland Spain CIS < Belarus Russia < N & C AMERICA Canada USA NEAR EAST ASIA FAR EAST ASIA China WORLD TOTAL < Table 8 PRODUCTION BY GRAIN 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast.) Wheat < Coarse Grains < Maize (corn) < Barley < Sorghum < Oats < Rye < Millet, triticale, < mixed grains WORLD TOTAL < See Table notes at the end of this report.

27 Table 9 TRADE: TOTAL GRAINS (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE < Albania EU < Norw ay Sw itzerland Others CIS < Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan < Others N & C AMERICA < Canada Costa Rica Cuba < Dominican Rep < Guatemala < Mexico < USA < Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Bolivia Brazil Chile < Colombia < Ecuador Peru Venezuela Others < NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Iraq Israel Jordan Lebanon Saudi Arabia < Turkey UAE Yemen Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < Indonesia < Japan Korea (S) < Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei, Chinese < Thailand < Vietnam < Others South Asia < Bangladesh India Pakistan < Sri Lanka Others IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) AFRICA < North Africa < Algeria < Egypt < Libya Morocco < Tunisia Sub-Sahara < Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria South Africa < Sudan Zimbabw e Others OCEANIA New Zealand Others UNSPECIFIED SUB-TOTAL < Less: Processed secondary trade (PST) WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Australia Canada < EU < Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine < USA < Brazil < China < India < South Africa < Turkey Others < WORLD TOTAL < All w heat < Maize (corn) < Barley Sorghum < Oats Rye Others

28 Table 10 TRADE: ALL WHEAT (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE Albania EU Norw ay Sw itzerland Others CIS < Azerbaijan Belarus T T Georgia Russia 0.1 T T T T Ukraine T T 0.1 T T Uzbekistan < Other CIS N & C AMERICA < Cuba Mexico < USA Others SOUTH AMERICA < Bolivia Brazil Chile < Colombia Ecuador Peru Venezuela Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Iraq Israel Jordan Lebanon Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China Indonesia < Japan Korea (N) Korea (S) < Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taipei, Chinese Thailand < Vietnam < Others IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) South Asia < Bangladesh India T Pakistan < Sri Lanka Others AFRICA North Africa < Algeria Egypt < Libya Morocco Tunisia Sub-Sahara < Côte d'ivoire Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria South Africa < Sudan Others OCEANIA New Zealand Others UNSPECIFIED SUB-TOTAL < Less: Processed secondary trade (PST) WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Australia Canada < EU < Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine USA China India < Pakistan < Mexico Syria T T T T T Turkey Others < WORLD TOTAL <

29 Table 11 TRADE: MAIZE (CORN) (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE < EU < Others CIS Russia T 0.1 T T T Others N & C AMERICA < Canada Dominican Rep < Mexico < Others < SOUTH AMERICA < Brazil Chile Colombia < Peru Uruguay < Venezuela Others NEAR EAST ASIA < Iran < Israel Saudi Arabia < Syria Turkey Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < Indonesia < Japan Korea (S) < Malaysia Taipei, Chinese < Others South Asia < AFRICA < North Africa < Algeria < Egypt Morocco < Tunisia Others Sub-Sahara Kenya 0.8 T Others OTHERS & UNSP. 0.1 T WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Brazil < Canada < China EU < India < South Africa < Paraguay Ukraine < USA < Others < WORLD TOTAL < Table 12 TRADE: BARLEY* (July/June) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE EU Others CIS Russia T Others N & C AMERICA USA Others SOUTH AMERICA Brazil Colombia Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Israel Jordan Saudi Arabia Syria UAE Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Japan Taipei, Chinese T Others South Asia T T 0.1 T T AFRICA North Africa Algeria T Libya Morocco Tunisia Others T T 0.1 T T Sub-Sahara OTHERS & UNSP. T T 0.2 T T WORLD TOTAL EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Australia Feed Malting Canada < Feed < Malting EU < Feed < Malting Kazakhstan Russia < Ukraine USA Feed T Malting Turkey 0.8 T Others WORLD TOTAL Feed Malting * Excl. malt and other products

30 Table 13 TRADE: SORGHUM (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) IMPORTS EU Mexico 2,656 2,154 1,400 2,600 1,600 < Colombia Chile Japan 1,729 1,386 1,275 1,400 1,400 Ethiopia Sudan New Zealand Others WORLD TOTAL 6,298 6,333 4,390 6,605 5,605 < EXPORTS Argentina 1,318 1,862 1,400 2,300 2,300 Australia , China India USA 4,298 3,775 1,700 3,000 2,000 < Others Table 14 TRADE: OATS (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) IMPORTS Norw ay Sw itzerland Mexico USA 1,644 1,405 1,635 1,625 1,625 Japan Others WORLD TOTAL 2,123 1,915 2,160 2,205 2,205 EXPORTS Australia Canada 1,571 1,419 1,650 1,700 1,700 Chile EU USA Others Table 15 TRADE: RYE (July/June) '000 tons 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) IMPORTS EU Norw ay Russia T T T T T Ukraine T T T T T USA Israel Japan Korea (S) Others WORLD TOTAL EXPORTS Canada EU Russia Ukraine Others See Table notes at the end of this report.

31 Table 16 REPORTED SALES * (26 July 22 August 2012) IM- EX- QUANT. GRAINS/ PRICE PER TON, FOB SHIPPING DATE PORTER PORTER '000 PRODUCTS UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED PERIOD TONS WHEAT ALGERIA likely EU (France) Milling around $ C&F Aug-12/Sep Optional origins (likely EU) $ C&F Sep Optional origins at least Milling $ $ C&F Sep-12/Oct EGYPT Russia 60.0 $316.47, freight at $10.73/t Sep Russia 60.0 $316.47, freight at $10.90/t Sep Russia 60.0 $313.00, freight at $10.69/t Sep Ukraine 60.0 $313.88, freight at $11.44/t Sep INDONESIA India 30.0 Unknow n Unknown IRAN EU (Germany & Scandinavia)/Baltic/ around Milling Unknow n Sep-12 Black Sea IRAQ EU (Germany)/Baltic at least Milling Unknow n Unknown JAPAN Unknow n 11.7 Milling see GMRPlus** Oct US/Australia Food see GMRPlus** Sep-12/Oct US/Australia Milling see GMRPlus** Sep-12/Nov US 70.9 Milling see GMRPlus** Nov US 70.9 Milling see GMRPlus** Nov JORDAN likely Black Sea $ C&F Nov LIBYA Optional origins (likely Russia) 50.0 Unknow n Unknown MAURITANIA Russia 9.8 j) Unknow n Aug-12/Sep SAUDI ARABIA EU/Australia/North & South America Milling $ C&F Oct-12/Nov Milling $ C&F Oct-12/Nov SOUTH AFRICA Russia 35.0 Milling Unknow n Aug-12/Sep SOUTH KOREA India Feed $ C&F Nov Optional origins Feed $ $ C&F Oct-12/Nov Optional origins 55.0 Feed $ C&F Sep-12/Oct India 50.0 Feed $ C&F Sep-12/Oct US 23.0 $ $ Nov-12/Dec US 24.9 SW $ $ Nov-12/Dec US 16.2 HRW $ Nov-12/Dec US 7.9 DNS $ Nov-12/Dec Canada 18.7 Milling Unknow n Nov-12/Dec TAIPEI, CHINESE US 94.3 $ $ Sep-12/Oct US 46.0 DNS $ $ C&F Sep-12/Oct US 35.7 HRW $ $ C&F Sep-12/Oct US 12.6 WW $ C&F Sep-12/Oct THAILAND India $ $ C&F Sep-12/Oct UNKNOWN India 45.0 $ $ Aug-12/Sep US Canada 45.0 Unknow n Unknown DURUM ALGERIA Optional origins (mostly Canada) at least $ C&F Oct-12 IM- EX- QUANT. GRAINS/ PRICE PER TON, FOB SHIPPING DATE PORTER PORTER '000 PRODUCTS UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED PERIOD TONS MAIZE (Corn) INDONESIA Pakistan 20.0 Unknow n Aug Pakistan 20.0 Unknow n Unknown Pakistan 97.0 $ $ Aug-12/Oct MEXICO US Unknow n MY2012/ US Unknow n MY2013/2014 (cont.) TAIPEI, CHINESE Brazil 55.8 $0.714/bu + CME Dec C&F Oct-12/Nov Brazil 5.0 $ C&F Oct-12/Nov US 10.0 $ C&F Aug-12/Sep US 13.0 $1.953/bu + CME Dec C&F Aug-12/Sep UNKNOWN Pakistan 10.0 Unknow n Unknown BARLEY JAPAN Unknow n 1.5 Feed see GMRPlus** Nov JORDAN Optional origins Feed $ C&F Sep-12

32 Table 17A MAIN WHEAT EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Dec/Nov 1 Dec - 15 Aug shipments 9,602 1) 6, /12 Net sales for week ending 15 Aug (65) Outstanding commitments 1,478 1, TOTAL 11,081 8, AUSTRALIA Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments 18,513 14, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 12 Aug shipments /13 EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 2 Jul - 14 Aug 12/13 Soft w heat 1,323 1, Flour (grain equivalent) Durum Semolina (grain equivalent) TOTAL 1,553 3) 1,717 3) - 10 USA Jun/May 1 Jun - 9 Aug shipments 5,002 6,040 2) /13 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug (397) 4) Outstanding commitments 4,978 5,447-9 TOTAL 9,980 11, Of w hich: HRW 3,781 4, SRW 1,486 1, HRS 2,561 3, WHITE 1,934 2,024-4 DURUM KAZAKHSTAN Jul/Jun Jul - Apr shipments 8,247 4, /12 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 21,619 5) 3, /12 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 5,223 4, /12 Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Australia: ABS Canada: CGC EU: Commission USA: USDA Kazakhstan: unofficial Russia: unofficial Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult T = Less than 500 t. 1) Excludes flour. Source: Direccion de Mercados Agroalimentarios - Ag. Ministry 2) Excludes donations. 3) Cumulative of 7 w eeks 4) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details 5) Preliminary data only Table 17B MAIN MAIZE (CORN) EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Mar/Feb 1 Mar - 15 Aug shipments 10,189 1) 10, /12 Net Sales for week ending 15 Aug (154) Outstanding commitments 4,047 2, TOTAL 14,236 12, BRAZIL Mar/Feb Mar - Jun shipments /13 CHINA Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments /12 SOUTH AFRICA May/Apr May - Jun shipments /13 USA Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 9 Aug shipments 36,690 42, /12 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug ) Outstanding commitments 2,920 5, TOTAL 39,611 48, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade China: official customs data South Africa: South Africa Grain Information Service USA: USDA T = Less than 500 t. 1) Excludes donations. 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details Table 17C MAIN BARLEY EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year AUSTRALIA Nov/Oct Nov - Jun shipments 4,084 2, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1-12 Aug shipments /13 EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 2 Jul - 14 Aug 12/13 Barley 1, Malt (grain equivalent) TOTAL 1,074 3) 668 3) + 61 USA Jun/May 1 Jun - 9 Aug shipments ) /13 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug (12) 2) Outstanding commitments TOTAL RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 3,525 4) /12 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 2,454 2, /12 Sources: Australia: ABS Canada: CGC EU: Commission USA: USDA Russia: unofficial Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult 1) Excludes donations. 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details 3) Cumulative of 7 w eeks 4) Preliminary data only

33 Table 18A SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS** Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL GRAINS Argentina ** 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (3.2) (46.7) (2.8) (8.8) (16.6) (29.5) (3.8) Australia ** 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (36.1) (46.3) (2.4) (8.4) (13.0) (26.3) (7.1) Canada EU / /12 est /13 f'cast (8.8) (51.5) (17.4) (28.0) (24.0) (9.3) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (28.7) (280.3) (14.6) (323.6) (62.7) (158.3) (269.8) (27.3) (26.5) Kazakhstan 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (6.1) (14.2) (20.3) (4.0) (10.0) (3.1) Russia Ukraine USA 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (11.8) (76.9) (0.4) (89.1) (18.6) (32.2) (64.2) (13.2) (11.7) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (10.2) (42.6) (52.9) (15.4) (28.2) (19.3) (5.4) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (46.0) (375.2) (7.2) (428.4) (31.5) (155.7) (122.4) (312.6) (78.3) (37.6) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2010/ , /12 est , /13 f'cast , (124.9) (923.4) (23.3) (1071.7) (132.5) (202.8) (366.9) (742.4) (225.0) (104.4) China India 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (114.9) (9.1) (447.4) (62.7) (158.6) (334.3) (111.6) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (22.4) (135.9) (158.4) (101.1) (12.6) (127.7) (6.1) (24.6) WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2010/ , , , /12 est , , , /13 f'cast , , , (366.2) (1809.6) (256.3) (2175.8) (633.7) (304.9) (782.6) (1838.8) (256.3) (337.0)

34 Table 18B SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks d) supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) d) stocks WHEAT Argentina (Dec/Nov) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.4) (12.9) (7.0) (1.3) Australia (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (24.0) (32.0) (2.1) (3.0) (6.3) (5.2) Canada (Aug/Jul) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (26.5) (32.5) (18.6) (5.3) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (11.1) (132.0) (148.9) (54.5) (119.5) (19.4) (10.0) of which common wheat 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (10.8) (124.4) (3.8) (139.0) (47.7) (112.2) (17.1) (9.8) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (5.6) (12.0) (17.6) (8.0) (2.7) Russia (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (9.4) (45.0) (54.4) (14.0) (36.4) (9.0) (9.0) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (6.7) (19.8) (3.5) USA (Jun/May) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (60.5) (3.3) (84.1) (25.1) (5.1) (33.0) (18.1) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (68.4) (324.5) (9.3) (402.2) (113.2) (80.0) (229.0) (118.0) (55.2) China (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (53.9) (175.9) (52.9) India (Apr/Mar) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (20.7) (114.7) (3.5) (23.1) WORLD TOTAL e) e) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (197.7) (664.6) (132.6) (862.2) (465.4) (129.6) (679.0) (132.6) (183.2)

35 Table 18C SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL COARSE GRAINS 2010/ , , , /12 est , , , /13 f'cast , , , (168.6) (1145.0) (123.7) (1313.6) (168.3) (284.9) (652.9) (1159.8) (123.7) (153.8) MAIZE Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (2.3) (5.7) (8.6) (16.4) Brazil (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (11.9) (63.0) (0.5) (75.4) (54.7) (12.0) (8.7) EU-27 (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (5.4) (65.7) (8.0) (79.0) (52.7) (71.8) (2.4) South Africa (May/Apr) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast (12.5) (14.5) (2.0) Ukraine (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.6) (21.0) (22.6) (7.0) (8.6) (13.2) (0.8) USA (Sep/Aug) f) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (22.9) (300.0) (1.5) (324.4) (149.6) (112.0) (267.3) (41.1) (16.0) China (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (5.0) (258.5) (54.0) (132.0) (202.2) (56.1) Japan (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (15.3) (15.9) (10.5) (15.3) WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (128.8) (863.5) (96.7) (992.4) (99.1) (247.7) (498.5) (877.7) (96.7) (114.7)

36 Table 18D SUPPLY & DEMAND: BARLEY & SORGHUM* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks BARLEY Australia (Nov/Oct) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (7.5) (8.9) (2.4) (3.1) (4.7) Canada (Aug/Jul) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.6) (9.5) (6.2) (6.6) (1.6) (1.3) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (52.6) (62.4) (35.5) (47.8) (5.2) (9.4) Russia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (15.5) (17.3) (8.8) (13.4) (2.6) (1.3) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast USA (Jun/May) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (4.7) (0.7) (6.7) (0.5) Saudi Arabia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.7) (8.7) (6.8) (6.9) (1.9) WORLD TOTAL g), h) g), h) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (27.4) (131.1) (158.5) (86.4) (130.9) (27.6) SORGHUM Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast Australia (Mar/Feb) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast /14 f'cast USA (Sep/Aug) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.6) (9.3) (2.3) (2.5) (4.8) (3.6) (0.9) WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (61.7) (6.6) (63.5) (27.8) (5.2) (26.0) (61.6) (6.6) (1.9)

37 Table 18E SUPPLY & DEMAND: OATS & RYE* Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks OATS Australia (Nov/Oct) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Canada (Aug/Jul) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (0.9) (0.4) EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.0) (9.0) (6.3) (8.1) USA (Jun/May) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.4) (2.5) WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (23.2) (27.3) (4.0) (16.3) (23.7) (3.6) RYE EU-27 (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast Russia (Jul/Jun) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (3.0) (3.0) (1.4) (0.7) (3.0) WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (14.9) (15.8) (5.7) (6.6) (15.1) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report. ** Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the "2012/13" year includes the 2012/13 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2013/14 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize. a) Including seed and waste. f) Includes residual. b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, g) IGC July/June trade Russia, Ukraine, United States h) Excludes trade in malt c) Includes trade in malt. Totals may not sum due to rounding. d) Including estimated trade in secondary products Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate. e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

38 Table 19 SUPPLY & DEMAND: DURUM WHEAT* (major exporters) Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports a) Closing stocks supply Food Feed Total stocks Canada (Aug/July) 2010/ T b) 0.5 c) /12 est T b) 0.5 c) /13 f'cast T b) 0.5 c) (1.1) (4.6) (5.7) (3.8) (1.0) EU-27 (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (7.6) (2.0) (9.9) (2.3) (0.2) USA (June/May) 2010/ T /12 est T /13 f'cast T Total 3 major exporters a) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (2.1) (14.5) (3.1) (19.7) (7.2) WORLD TOTAL d) d) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (35.2) (42.6) (29.1) (2.1) (6.9) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates elsewhere in this report. Figures in brackets represent previous estimates for 2012/13. a) Including semolina and secondary products b) Including industrial uses c) Including waste and dockage d) IGC July/June trade, excluding trade in secondary products PRODUCTION: DURUM WHEAT COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EU < France < Greece Italy < Spain Kazakhstan < Canada < Mexico USA Argentina Syria Turkey India Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Australia Others WORLD TOTAL < TRADE: DURUM WHEAT (incl. semolina) (July/June) '000 tons COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) IMPORTS EU-27 2,159 1,928 1,800 2,000 1,900 < USA Chile Peru Venezuela Japan Algeria 1,534 1,335 1,800 1,200 1,300 < Libya Morocco Tunisia Nigeria Others & Unspec. 1,387 1, WORLD TOTAL 7,553 7,338 7,400 7,100 7,100 of which semolina EXPORTS Australia Canada 3,675 3,117 3,850 3,800 3,900 < EU-27 1,054 2,060 1, < of which semolina Kazakhstan < Mexico Turkey USA 1,045 1, ,000 1,000

39 Table 20 PRODUCTION: ALL RICE COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE EU CIS N & C AMERICA Cuba USA Others SOUTH AMERICA Argentina Brazil Uruguay Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Others FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < Cambodia China Indonesia Japan Myanmar < Philippines Thailand < Vietnam Others South Asia < Bangladesh India < Pakistan Others AFRICA North Africa Egypt sub-saharan Africa Madagascar Nigeria Others OCEANIA WORLD TOTAL < Table 21a MAIN RICE EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar Apr - Jun shipments /13 BRAZIL Apr/Mar Apr - Jul shipments /13 EU Sep/Aug Sep - Jun shipments /12 1 Sep - 14 Aug shipments INDIA Oct/Sep Oct - Jan shipments 3, /12 THAILAND Jan/Dec Jan - Jun shipments 3,171 6, Jan - 5 Aug shipments 3,018 1) 6,043 1) Jan - 14 Aug shipments 4,160 2) 7,700 2) - 46 URUGUAY Apr/Mar Apr shipments /13 USA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 9 Aug shipments 93 3) 123 3) /13 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug (33) 3) Outstanding commitments 263 3) 379 3) - 31 TOTAL Of which: Rough 190 3) 230 3) - 18 Milled 157 3) 225 3) - 30 Brown 10 3) 47 3) - 79 VIETNAM Jan/Dec 1 Jan - 15 Aug shipments 4,520 4,878-7 Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade EU: Commission India: Ministry of Commerce Thailand: Thai Customs Department Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA Vietnam: Vietnam Food Association * Data refer to milled weight basis unless otherwise stated 1) White and parboiled rice 2) All rice shipments 3) Product weight basis Table 21 TRADE: ALL RICE (January/December) (milled basis) IMPORTS (f'cast) EUROPE EU CIS Russia N & C AMERICA Canada Cuba Haiti Mexico United States Others SOUTH AMERICA Brazil < Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia UAE Others FAR EAST ASIA < Bangladesh China Indonesia < Japan Korea (South) Malaysia Philippines Others < AFRICA Sub-Sahara Benin Cameroon Côte d'ivoire Ghana Mozambique Nigeria Senegal South Africa Others OCEANIA UNSPECIFIED SUB-TOTAL < Less re-exports a) < WORLD TOTAL < a) including estimates of cross-border trade (milled basis) EXPORTS (f'cast) India < Pakistan Thailand USA Vietnam LEADING EXPORTERS < Argentina Australia Brazil < Cambodia China Egypt EU Guyana Japan Myanmar Uguguay Others

40 Table 22 SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE (milled basis) Opening Production Imports Total Total Exports Closing stocks supply use a) stocks India (Oct/Sep) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (20.9) (100.5) (121.4) (95.9) (6.5) (19.0) Pakistan (Nov/Oct) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (6.9) Thailand (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (8.6) (21.0) (30.0) (10.8) (11.2) USA (Aug/July) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (7.9) Vietnam (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (2.1) (29.3) (2.6) Total 5 leading exporters b) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (33.3) (160.7) (1.6) (195.5) (133.1) (34.3) Bangladesh (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (36.1) China (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (44.0) (187.3) (140.8) Indonesia (Jan/Dec) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.5) (42.9) (3.3) Philippines (July/June) 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (1.4) WORLD TOTAL 2010/ /12 est /13 f'cast (100.5) (466.7) (34.7) (567.2) (465.7) (34.7) (101.6) * IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report. a) Including seed and waste. b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

41 Table 23 PRODUCTION: SOYABEANS COUNTRY 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE EU CIS N & C AMERICA < Canada < USA < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Bolivia < Brazil < Paraguay < Uruguay Others FAR EAST ASIA Pacific Asia China Indonesia Others South Asia India AFRICA Table 24 PRODUCTION: RAPESEED / CANOLA COUNTRY 2009/ / / /13 (f'cast) EUROPE < EU < CIS < Belarus < Russia Ukraine < N & C AMERICA < Canada USA < FAR EAST ASIA < Pacific Asia < China < South Asia India OCEANIA Australia WORLD TOTAL < WORLD TOTAL < Table 25 TRADE: SOYABEANS (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE < EU < N & C AMERICA < Canada Mexico < Others SOUTH AMERICA < Argentina < Brazil Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Israel Turkey < Others FAR EAST ASIA < China < Taipei, Chinese < Indonesia < Japan Korea (S) < Vietnam Thailand < Others AFRICA < Egypt < Others OTHERS & UNSP WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Brazil < Canada China Paraguay < Ukraine USA < Others < WORLD TOTAL < Table 25a MAIN SOYABEAN EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar 1 Apr - 15 Aug shipments 4,105 5, /12 BRAZIL Feb/Jan Feb - Jul shipments 26,492 21, /13 CANADA Aug/Jul Aug - Jun shipments 2,789 2, /12 UKRAINE Sep/Aug Sep - Jun shipments 1, /12 URUGUAY Apr/Mar Apr shipments /13 USA Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 9 Aug shipments 35,179 39, /12 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug (97) Outstanding commitments 3,507 2, TOTAL 38,686 42,124-8 Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: SECEX Foreign Trade Secretariat Canada: Statistics Canada Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA

42 Table 26 TRADE: SOYAMEAL (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE < EU < N & C AMERICA < Canada Mexico Others SOUTH AMERICA Chile Colombia Peru Others NEAR EAST ASIA Iran Others FAR EAST ASIA < Indonesia Japan Korea (S) Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam Others AFRICA Algeria Egypt South Africa Others OCEANIA OTHERS & UNSP WORLD TOTAL < EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Argentina < Brazil China EU India Paraguay USA < Others WORLD TOTAL < Table 27 TRADE: RAPESEED / CANOLA (October/September) IMPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) EUROPE EU N & C AMERICA Mexico USA Others FAR EAST ASIA China Japan Pakistan Others OTHERS & UNSP WORLD TOTAL EXPORTS 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 (f'cast) Australia Canada < EU Russia Ukraine < USA Others WORLD TOTAL Table 26a MAIN SOYAMEAL EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA Apr/Mar Apr - Jun shipments 6,786 7, /13 BOLIVIA Mar/Feb Mar - Apr shipments /12 BRAZIL Feb/Jan Feb - Jul shipments 7,572 7, /13 CHINA Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments /12 INDIA Oct/Sep Oct - Jan shipments 2,631 2, /12 PARAGUAY Mar/Feb Mar - Jul shipments /13 USA Oct/Sep 1 Oct - 9 Aug shipments 7,368 6, /12 Net sales for week ending 9 Aug (54) Outstanding commitments TOTAL 8,365 7, Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Bolivia: Bolivia Customs Brazil: SECEX Foreign Trade Secretariat China: Gen. Admin. of Customs India: Ministry of Commerce Paraguay: Central Bank USA: USDA Table 27a MAIN RAPESEED / CANOLA EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) '000 tons Current Year % change Year Ago year on year AUSTRALIA Nov/Oct Nov - Jun shipments 2,080 1, /12 CANADA Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 12 Aug shipments /12 EU Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments /12 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments /12 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 1,204 1, /12 USA Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments /12 Sources: Australia: ABS Canada : CGC EU: Commission Russia: Customs Committee of Russia Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult USA: USDA

43 Table 28 PRICES: WEEKLY EXPORT QUOTATIONS (fob, nearest shipment position) US$ / ton Year Ago 29 Jun 06 Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 Jul 03 Aug 10 Aug 17 Aug IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index * WHEAT ARGENTINA Trigo Pan, Up River AUSTRALIA APW 2, Western Australia ASW 1, Western Australia ASW 1, Eastern States APW 1, Eastern States CANADA a) No. 1 CWRS 13.5%, St. Lawrence 427 No. 1 CWRS 12.5%, Vancouver 430 EU France Grade 1, Rouen France Grade 1, Rouen /ton Germany B Quality, Hamburg UK Feed, Eastern BLACK SEA Milling Grade Feed USA No. 2 HRW, Gulf No. 2 SRW, Gulf No. 2 SW, PNW No. 2 DNS 14%, Lakehead No. 2 DNS 14%, Gulf No. 2 DNS 13.5%, PNW No. 2 DNS 14%, PNW IGC GOI: Wheat Sub Index * MAIZE (CORN) Argentina, Rosario (Up River) Black Sea Brazil, Paranagua USA No. 3 Yellow, Gulf IGC GOI: Maize Sub Index * BARLEY Australia malting, Eastern states Australia feed, Eastern states EU (France) Feed, Rouen EU (Germany), Hamburg EU (France) spring malting, Rouen Black Sea Feed USA No.2 Western, PNW SORGHUM USA, Gulf RICE Thailand 100% Grade B Vietnam 5% Broken USA No.2, 4% Broken India 25% Broken Pakistan 25% Broken IGC GOI: Rice Sub-Index * SOYABEANS USA No.2, Gulf Argentina, Rosario (Up River) Brazil, Paranagua IGC GOI: Soyabeans Sub Index * RAPESEED/CANOLA Canada, Vancouver * GOI, w eekly basis: Jan 2000 = 100, as calculated by IGC for previous Friday. For details, visit: w w.igc.int/en/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xls a) Quotations by Canadian Wheat Board (CWB), except Vancouver (estimate) Quotations discontinued

44 Table 29 FUTURES PRICES (Nearby Contract) Year Ago 04 Jul 11 Jul 18 Jul 25 Jul 01 Aug 08 Aug 15 Aug 22 Aug WHEAT USA - CME - SRW c/bu USA - KCBT - HRW c/bu USA - MGE - HRS c/bu EU (France) - MATIF - Soft Milling /ton Australia - ASX - Milling A$/ton EU (UK) - LIFFE - Feed /ton MAIZE (CORN) USA - CME c/bu China - Dalian Renminbi/ton 2,312 2,182 2,182 2,494 2,520 2,518 2,511 2,529 2,513 EU (France) - MATIF /ton S.Africa - SAFEX White Rand/ton 2,199 2,230 2,403 2,587 2,743 2,712 2,693 2,685 2,737 BARLEY Canada - ICE - Feed C$/ton RICE USA - CME c/cw t 1,686-1,483 1,554 1,557 1,559 1,569 1,517 1,559 SOYABEANS USA - CME c/bu 1,387-1,623 1,684 1,694 1,682 1,630 1,660 1,748 China - Dalian No.1 Renminbi/ton 4,199 4,252 4,450 4,592 4,510 4,645 4,598 4,588 4,733 CANOLA Canada - ICE C$/ton VEGETABLE OIL Malaysia - Palm Oil Ringgit/ton 3,130 3,094 3,053 2,970 2,926 2,922 2,811 2,811 3,008 US FUTURES PRICES (Nearby Contract)