The Need for Behavioural Change in Transportation

Transcription

1 The Limits of Technology or The Need for Behavioural Change in Transportation Green Growth Knowledge Platform Inaugural Conference Four Seasons Hotel, Mexico City January 12-13, Andreas Schäfer University of Cambridge & Stanford University ac

2 Trends in Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Energy Use Rela ated CO 2 Emissions, MtC IS92 B IS92 D IS92 A IS92 E IS92 F IS92 C

3 Sh hare in Final Ene ergy, % Share in Fin nal Energy, % Structural Change in the Energy System (Time series data from ) Residential 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,00035,000 GDP/cap, US$(2000) Agriculture Industrialized Regions: North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Reforming Economies: Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Developing Regions: Centrally Planned Asia Latin Ameria Middle East & North Africa Other Pacific Asia Industry Services Transportation Other Services South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,00035,000 GDP/cap, US$(2000)

4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Identity GGE E GGE = E A PKT PKT

5 Travel Time Budget: Stability Time-use surveys, 1965/66 and early 2000s activities s, Time de edicated to major h/c cap/d Sleep ( ) Leisure & Study ( ) Household o & Family Care ( ) Personal Care &Meals( ) Travel ( ) Work time, h/cap/d

6 Growth in Global Mobility ( ) PKT/cap 1,000, ,000 10,000 Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Middle East & North Africa Other Pacific Asia North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union South Asia Centrally Planned Asia World 1, ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 GDP/cap, US$(2000)

7 Shift from Slow to Fast ( ) T blic transport, %PKT Low-speed pub %PKT100PKT/cap Light-duty vehicles, High-sp peed modes, %PKT ,000 10, ,000 1,000, ,000 10, ,000 1,000, PKT/cap ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Industrialized Regions: North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Reforming Economies: Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Developing Regions: Centrally Planned Asia Latin Ameria Middle East & North Africa Other Pacific Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa PKT/cap

8 Energy Intensity GGE = GGE E E PKT PKT A

9 E/PKT: Trends in Energy Intensity Energy In ntensity, MJ J/pkm US Great Britain Germany Japan Switzerland France Structural changes in auto travel Shift toward more powerful vehicles Higher frequency air services Flattening stage length distribution Others Penetration of BATs in aviation Rising PAX load factors in aircraft Others

10 Opportunities for Reducing E/PKT Road Vehicles: E VKT = 1 η Propulsion System (A + D + R) Jet Aircraft: E PKT = Q SFC PAX V (L/D) ln W F W 0 W 0 -W F

11 Constraints to Reducing E/PKT Engineering trade-offs Occupant safety vs. automobile weight, etc. Larger aircraft wingspan (to increase L/D) vs. increase in aircraft weight, etc. Consumer acceptance Battery-electric vehicles vs. range, etc. Turboprop aircraft engines vs. passenger comfort, etc. Development costs of new (road and air) vehicles several billion dollars existing, proven designs Evolutionary process implies that many fuel-saving technologies have long history

12 Long Technology History 95 years Racing version of the front wheel driven, petrol-electric Lohner "Porsche in years? Hugo Junkers' 1924 design for a giant flying wing. The wing was to accommodate 26 cabins for 100 passengers, carry a crew of 10, and have enough fuel for 10 hours of flight.

13 Opportunities for Reducing E/PKT: Summary (while maintaining current performance characteristics!) By mid 2020s E/PKT reduction potential 30-50% (for the average new LDV or aircraft in early 2000, using technologies currently under development) By midcentury Natural fleet turnover would translate t these reductions to the vehicle fleet BUT: Global automobile and air travel may triple or quadruple over the same time horizon!

14 Challenge: Transport System Scale No. add. 1GW el nuclear reactors to satisfy 2005 US LDV energy demand via water electrolysis-based H2

15 Technical Potential for Reducing GHG Emissions ecycle GHG em missions, MtCO 2 -eq ns, Life Lifecycle e GHG emission MtCO 2 -eq 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, , ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 World United States Constant Technology Maximum Technology Fuel & vehicle cycle High-speed transport Low-speed public transport Light-duty vehicles EPPA- SRES- EPPA- SRES- Ref B1 Ref B

16 Government The Choices Ahead Type of policy measure to change consumer and industry choice of new vehicle attributes (market-based / regulation / both) Single policy approach vs. some portfolio of measures Economy wide vs. passenger transport only R&D investments Industry action depends upon government policy, BUT GHG emission problem will not fade away (see structural change in energy use) R&D investments (also) into reducing fuel consumption Satisfies climate change and oil dependence Importance of improving mainstream technology p p g gy Need for behavioural change

17 Main Causes of Differences in Mode Shares icles, %PK Ligh ht-duty veh KT x fuel taxes 80 4 x urban p-dens x fuel taxes up to 10 x urban p-dens ,000 10, , ,000,000 PKT/cap Industrialized Regions: North America Pacific OECD Western Europe Reforming Economies: Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Developing Regions: Centrally Planned Asia Latin Ameria Middle East & North Africa Other Pacific Asia South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Similar differences in total travel

18 Behavioral Change in Transportation Ultimate Goal: Reduce automobile & aircraft vehicle-km travelled Key Opportunities: Telecommunication substitutes Land-use changes Pricing measures (societal marginal costs of transport: 4-10 cents/l cents/km) Important: Combination of these measures

19 Behavioral Change in Transport & E3 Models Review of 13 Energy/Economy/Environment Models with transportation t ti sector representation ti 4 bottom-up / systems-engineering models 1 top-down / macro-economic model 7 hybrid models 1 econometric model Results: Assume continuation of historical trends Reliance on technology-only solutions Few models include required specs for considering behavioral change and already could analyze impact of behavioral change If combined with elements of existing macroscopic transportation model specs, most behavioral change policies can be simulated Room for innovations still exists

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