Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks: Understanding Key Trends,

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1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Heavy Duty Trucks: Understanding Key Trends, TRB Environment and Energy Research Conference June 9, 2010 John Davies Federal Highway Administration Office of Natural Environment 1

2 U.S. GHG Emissions by End-Use Economic Sector, Total U.S. GHGs +13.5% Transportation +22.1% Mmt 2, ,000.0 Change, ,500.0 Industry -7.4% Total U.S. GHGs -1.2% Transportation -2.3% 1, Transportation Commercial Residential Agriculture +22.1% +32.1% +27.4% +14.5% Total U.S. GHGs -2.9% Transportation - 5.9% Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to Table

3 GHG Emissions by Sector and Source in 2007 Estimates do not include black carbon, which is produced in significant quantities by trucks Source: EPA. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990 to Note: Above figures include international bunker fuels purchased in the U.S. 3

4 Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity Cars + LD Trucks Passenger Miles +36.4% Medium & HD Trucks Ton-Miles Commercial Aircraft Passenger Miles +62.6% 0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics, table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , table

5 Change in CO2, Activity and Intensity Cars + LD Trucks Passenger Miles +36.4% CO % -13.2% CO2 / Passenger Mile Medium & HD Trucks Ton-Miles % CO2 / Ton-Mile CO % Commercial Aircraft Passenger Miles +62.6% CO2 +2.0% -40.0%% CO2 / Passenger Mile 0.0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics, table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , table

6 Transportation GHGs by Major Transportation Mode, Mmt Light-Duty Vehicles Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks Commercial Aircraft Transportation +22.1% - LD Vehicles +18.7% - Med & HD Trucks +73.6% - Commercial Aircraft -9.8% Transportation -5.9% - LD Vehicles -4.1% - Med & HD Trucks -5.6% - Commercial Aircraft -11.5% Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , Table

7 Truck GHGs and Diesel Fuel Prices Medium- and Heavy Duty Truck GHG Emissions Truck GHG emissions continued to rise from 2004 to 2007 despite rapidly increasing diesel fuel prices Diesel Fuel Price (Real 2008 Dollars) $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , Table 2-15 ; Transportation Energy Data Book 7

8 Ton-Miles by Mode, Ton-Miles 2,000,000 Total Ton-Miles 100.0% Share of Ton-Miles 1,800,000 1,600,000 Rail 90.0% 80.0% 29.4% 39.5% 1,400,000 Truck 70.0% 1,200, % 23.4% 1,000,000 Pipeline 50.0% 28.6% 800, % 23.9% 600, ,000 Domestic Waterborne 30.0% 20.0% 19.6% 200,000 0 Domestic Aircraft 10.0% 0.0% 23.0% 12.0% 0.3% 0.3% Source: BTS National Transportation Statistics, table1-46b. 8

9 Freight Energy Efficiency in 2007 (BTU / Ton-Mile) Pipeline 978 Rail 335 Aircraft Waterborne 899 Med & HD Trucks Sources: Energy consumption estimates derived from EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , with the exception of pipeline estimates, which were taken from the Transportation Energy Data Book. Freight ton-mile estimates from BTS, National Transportation Statistics table 1-46b. 9

10 Change in Freight Energy Intensity (BTU/Ton-Mile), % 15.3% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline -8.4% -20.0% -22.9% -30.0% -30.9% -40.0% Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total 10

11 GHGs by Freight Mode, Mmt Trucking Freight Rail Ships and Other Boats Pipelines All Freight Sources +46.8% -Med & HD Trucks +73.6% -Freight Rail +28.5% -Ships and Boats -21.1% -Pipelines -3.2% -Aviation -24.1% Commercial Aviation 0.0 Source: EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , Table

12 GHGs and Activity, Freight and Passenger 70.0% Freight (all modes) 70.0% Passenger (all modes) 60.0% GHGs 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 50.0% 40.0% Passenger Miles 30.0% 20.0% Ton- Miles 30.0% 20.0% GHGs 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% -10.0% -10.0% Sources: BTS. National Transportation Statistics, table 1-37 (passenger miles) and 1-46b (ton-miles); EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks , table

13 How Do We Explain the Apparent Decline in Truck Energy Efficiency? (BTU/Ton-Mile), % 15.3% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Med & HD Trucks Aircraft Rail Pipeline -8.4% -20.0% -22.9% -30.0% -30.9% -40.0% Sources: BTS Table 1-46b and Transportation Energy Data Book Tables 2-7 and 2-8;. the most recent waterborne calculations are for 2006; aircraft freight fuel consumption estimates calculated by multiplying total domestic fuel consumption by the share of total 13

14 Vehicle Load Factors Without updated VIUS data, we lack current estimates of vehicle load rates Overall load rates appear to have remained roughly constant, since truck vehicle miles and ton-miles have increased at about the same rate since (~55% since 1990) Load rates may have changed slightly by truck type Earlier VIUS data suggested an increase in number of empty miles traveled by combination trucks (result of globalized trade) Potential increase in load factors for urban delivery vehicles 14

15 Activity by Truck Type Share of VMT Single-unit trucks have a higher energy intensity per tonmile than combination trucks 1990 Single-Unit 35.4% Combination 64.6% However, their share of overall truck VMT has not substantially increased since Single-Unit 36.1% Combination 63.9% Sources: Highway Statistics, Summary to 1995 and

16 Activity by Truck Type and Highway Category Share of VMT More truck activity occurred in congested conditions A greater share of VMT was in urban areas Potential spreading of congestion outside urban areas? 1990 Ruran Single Unit, 19.3% Urban Single Unit, 16.1% Urban Combination, 22.5% Rural Combination, 42.0% 2007 Rural Single Unit, 16.2% Urban Single Unit, 19.9% Rural Combination, 36.5% Sources: Highway Statistics, Summary to 1995 and 2008 Urban Combination, 27.4% 16

17 Mechanical Factors to Explain the Decline in Trucks Measured Energy Efficiency Not vehicle age, since the average truck seems to be getting newer (5.4 years in 2002, versus 6.4 years in 1992) Demand for more powerful engines? Fuel economy penalty from implementation of NO X and PM control devices? 17

18 For More Information Federal Highway Administration Climate Change Website: US DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse: FHWA Office of Natural and Human Environment Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team