Overview of the Final Phase 2 Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emission Standards for Heavy- Duty Vehicles

Transcription

1 Overview of the Final Phase 2 Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emission Standards for Heavy- Duty Vehicles 1

2 Overview Background Heavy-duty sector characterization Phase 1 implementation: began in 2014 fully phased-in by 2018 Phase 2 Final Program Proposed standards revised, based on comments and new data Analysis supports maximum feasible standards out to 2027 to achieve the greatest benefits Up to 1.1 billion tons of CO 2 reductions (more than Proposal) and up to 2 billion barrels of fuel savings are achievable with final standards 2

3 Background 3

4 U.S. Transportation Sector Energy Use Heavy-duty vehicles responsible for about one fifth of the energy use and GHG emissions from transportation sources In terms of energy Heavy-Duty use, heavy-duty vehicles are also the fastest growing transportation sector in the U.S. and globally 9% 20% 3% 2% 6% 60% Light-Duty Vehicles Heavy-Duty Trucks and Buses Aircraft Ships and Boats Rail Other (Motorcycles, Pipelines, Lubricants) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook

5 Heavy-Duty Truck Regulatory Categories Combination Tractors Vocational Vehicles Large Pickups & Vans Trailers Pulled by Combination Tractors (currently unregulated Federally) NEW! 60% of HD Fuel Consumption & GHG Inventory (together) Standards in g/ton-mile & gallons/1,000 ton-miles 17% of HD Fuel Consumption & GHG Inventory Standards in g/ton-mile & gallons/1,000 ton-miles 23% of HD Fuel Consumption & GHG Inventory Standards in g/mile & gallons/100 miles 5

6 Phase 1 Highlights Phase 1 heavy-duty fuel efficiency and GHG standards began in 2014 First-ever standards for heavy-duty vehicles, will be fully phased in by 2018 A coordinated national program: manufacturers produce a single fleet to comply with all federal standards Manufacturers are complying with Phase 1 with off-theshelf technologies Very cost-effective technologies lead to fuel-savings greater than the technology cost all standards pay back, no evidence of any Phase 1 pre-buy 6

7 Additional Phase 1 Program Elements That are Built upon in Phase 2 Heavy-duty pickup and van program is similar to light-duty program Vehicle certification is based on testing a complete vehicle Other heavy-duty vehicles include: Engine certification based on EPA s existing criteria pollutant test procedures Computer simulation certification of vehicle performance (without engine, transmission and axle) instead of actual vehicle testing Computer simulation is used to certify heavy-duty vehicle performance because Heavy-duty vehicle size makes complete vehicle testing more difficult and expensive Custom-build aspect of heavy-duty market means thousands of different vehicle configurations too many to test Vehicle simulation brings together the results from a smaller number of vehicle component tests (tires, aerodynamics, etc.) This helps keep the costs of compliance down 7

8 Phase 2 Final Program 8

9 Stakeholder Outreach and Public Comments Extensive stakeholder during all stages of rule development Over 400 meetings with a wide-array of stakeholders Two public hearings during Proposal s 2015 public comment period Over 60 testifiers in Chicago, IL Over 60 testifiers in and Long Beach, CA Issued a separate Notice of Data Availability in March 2016 This included an additional 30-day comment period Significant number of public comments >200,000 comments Organizations: 195 Citizens: 195 Mass Comment Campaigns: 7 9

10 Phase 2 Final Program Overview As proposed, the Phase 2 standards will begin: In Model Year 2018 for EPA trailer standards, which were not regulated in Phase 1 In Model Year 2021 for all other EPA categories, and all NHTSA standards (EISA requires NHTSA to issue standards with 4 years lead time) All Phase 2 standards will be fully phased in by Model Year 2027 Final program is technology-advancing and performance-based, and can be met through a combination of existing technologies and advanced technologies Nearly full use of most Phase 1 technologies with additional optimization to improve technology effectiveness Significant use of emerging and advanced technologies by 2027 Including many technologies that were demonstrated as pre-prototypes in the Department of Energy s SuperTruck Partnership The agencies revised the proposed standards, based on a rigorous re-assessment of all technologies in this time frame 10

11 Phase 2 Final Program: Key Changes from Proposal (Slide 1/2) Improved test procedures New cycle-average fuel map methods reflect the most accurate forms of engine testing for GHG and fuel consumption Based on extensive research, testing and stakeholder feedback More robust compliance provisions Enhanced Selective Enforcement Audit provisions for aerodynamics to ensure production vehicles will achieve aerodynamic performance required by the standards More stringent separate diesel engine standards Updated technology deployment projections, based on comments and new data Revised vocational standards Increased effectiveness of vocational technologies based on how these vehicles operate in-use Standards are more tailored to in-use applications, to ensure the right technology for the job New in-use data resulted in GEM s duty cycle weighting factors to shift toward a greater recognition of costeffective idle reduction technologies (e.g., automatic engine shutdown, with allowable over-rides) 11

12 Phase 2 Final Program: Key Changes from Proposal (Slide 2/2) Significant improvements in GEM (vehicle compliance computer model) Robust and representative road grade, based on U.S. highways and truck activity Accurate representation of engine in the tractor Improved test procedures to recognize more technologies for powertrains, transmissions, axles, aerodynamic coast-downs Credit generation opportunities for final stage body builders/up-fitters By meeting delegated assembly requirements; via agreements with certifying chassis manufacturers Advanced technology multipliers for next-generation clean technology Multipliers of 5.5 for fuel cell, 4.5 for electric vehicle, 3.5 for plug-in hybrid technologies Finalizing particulate matter-filter based standards for diesel auxiliary power units (APUs) installed on new tractors Further minimizing impacts on small businesses Exemptions for specialty trailers Simplified compliance structure for small volume manufacturers that produce custom vocational vehicles 12

13 Phase 2 Reductions Maximum vehicle fuel savings and tailpipe GHG reduction (%) based on per vehicle emissions standards versus baseline standards Other subcategory reductions may vary 2027 CO 2 /Fuel Consumption Reductions (per new vehicle) Tractors (includes engine reductions) 25% Trailers 9% Vocational Vehicles (includes engine reductions) 24% Pick-ups & Vans 16% Separate Engine Standards (for Tractor and Vehicle applications, diesel value shown) 5% tractor 4% vocational 13

14 Summary* of Phase 2 Proposal GHG and Fuel Reductions, Costs and Benefits Final Phase 2 MY (in addition to Phase 1)* PROPOSED Phase 2 MY Fuel reductions (Billion Gallons) GHG reductions (MMT CO 2 eq) 960-1, Billions of 2013$ Billions of 2012$ Vehicle and maintenance costs -$24 to -27 -$26 Fuel savings (pre-tax) $150 to 170** $170*** GHG, non-ghg & other benefits $70 to 90 $100 Net benefits $200 to 230 $240 * Ranges shown in this table are representative aggregate values for the two analytical methods that the agencies used; at a 3% discount rate Preamble and Regulatory Impact Analysis present a range of estimates of costs and benefits to reflect different baselines, discount rates, and analytical methods. **Based on AEO 2014 fuel price projections, ***Based on AEO 2015 fuel price projections, See Appendix for details. 14

15 Per Vehicle Costs and Vehicle Payback for Final Standards Cost increase shown represents average 2027 vehicle vs. average Phase 1 vehicle Gradual introduction of new technology and gradual increase in costs as standards phase in Costs shown include engine costs Similar favorable payback periods as the proposal Final Standards Payback Period for MY 2027 Vehicles (proposal) Tractors/Trailers 2 nd year (same) Vocational Vehicles 4 th year (proposal: 6 th ) Pick-ups/Vans 3 rd year (same) Per Vehicle Cost and % Increase in Typical Vehicle Price* Tractors Trailers Vocational Vehicles Pickups/Vans FINAL Phase 2 Projected Average Cost Increase for MY 2027 Vehicle (Relative to 2018 vehicles) $12,200-12,400** <12% cost increase $1,070-1,110 <4% cost increase $2,660-2,700 <3% cost increase $1,340-1,360 <3% cost increase PROPOSED Phase 2 Projected Average Cost Increase for MY 2027 Vehicle (Relative to 2018 vehicles) $11,700 $1,200 $3,400 $1,300 *Assumed vehicle prices: $100,000+ for tractors, $25,000+ for trailers, $100,000+ for vocational vehicles and $40,000+ for HD pickups/vans **Includes cost for PM traps for APUs recognized in Phase 2 15

16 Total Annual GHG Trends for Phase 2 In the face of sustained growth, Phase 2 achieves a 13-year period of net decreasing GHGs and fuel consumption. 16

17 Small Business Impacts Regulatory Flexibility Act directs agencies to separately consider impacts of rulemakings on small businesses EPA is also required by SBREFA to convene a stakeholder Panel with SBA and OMB to formally consider ways to minimize impacts on small businesses, Panel Report available in EPA s rulemaking docket Affected small businesses include trailer manufacturers, alternative fuel converters, and specialty vehicle manufacturers Agencies finalized flexibilities consistent with SBREFA Panel Report 17

18 Final Environmental Impact Statement NHTSA has published a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) for its final fuel efficiency standards. The FEIS compares the environmental impacts of the agency s final standards with those of a number of regulatory alternatives that were also presented at the time of proposal. 18

19 Appendix 19

20 Congressional Authorization In the Clean Air Act, Congress directed EPA to establish emission standards for harmful pollutants Required to appropriately balance reductions with costs and lead time Also required to update standards from time to time In the Energy Independence and Security Act, Congress directed DOT to create a fuel efficiency improvement program for commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks Designed to achieve the maximum feasible improvement Implement appropriate test methods, measurement metrics, standards, and enforcement protocols That are appropriate, cost-effective and technologically feasible Provide not less than 4 full model years of lead time and 3 full model years of regulatory stability 20

21 Key Differences from Light-Duty Vehicles Heavy-duty vehicles used almost exclusively for commercial use Heavy-duty vehicles are more expensive Many cost more than $100,000 Sometimes exceeding $500,000 for specialty vehicles Different manufacturers for most heavy-duty vehicles Some light-duty manufacturers also make heavy-duty pickups and vans One heavy-duty manufacturer makes only engines Most heavy-duty vehicles are built to custom specifications 21

22 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Studies Related to the Rule, Prescribed by EISA 2007 Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles (2010) Included detailed information and recommendations on technologies, costs and approaches Agencies developed Phase 1 and Phase 2 with full consideration of this report Reducing the Fuel Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Mediumand Heavy-Duty Vehicles, Phase Two, First Report (2014) Included review of Phase 1 and initial recommendations for Phase 2 Agencies developed Phase 2 with full consideration of this report 22

23 Phase 2 Flexibilities Trailers Flexibilities Carried Over from Phase 1 for Tractors, Vocational Vehicles and HD Pickups & Vans Tractors Vocational Vehicles HD Pick-ups and Vans Engines in Tractors and Vocational Vehicles Glider Kit Vehicles One year delay in implementation for small businesses. Trailer manufacturers may use agency pre-approved technologies to avoid aerodynamic testing Averaging program available in MY 2027 for manufacturers of dry and refrigerated box trailers ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded (five year credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carry-forward credit deficits for up to three model years. Recognition of off-cycle technologies not accounted for by test procedures. Banked Phase 1 vehicle credits are useable to comply with Phase 2. Same as Phase 1, but with updated advanced technology incentives and enhanced Phase 1 credit generation opportunities. Same as Phase 1, but with revised advanced technology incentives, and extended Phase 1 credit life for certain vehicles and technologies. Chassis intended for emergency vehicles, cement mixers, coach buses, school buses, transit buses, refuse trucks, and motor homes may optionally use application-specific Phase 2 standards using a simplified version of GEM. Adjustment factor of 1.36 for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to change in useful life. Stringency increases on year-over-year basis. Revised credits for advanced technologies. Adjustment factor of 1.25 proposed for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to change in useful life. Same as Phase 1, but with revised advanced technology incentives. Adjustment factor of 1.36 for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 for SI and LHD CI engines due to change in useful life. Extended Phase 1 credit life and relaxed 2024 standards incentive for an optional 1-year pull-ahead of Phase 2 tractor engine standards. Similar to proposal, EPA is finalizing new requirements for gliders that would generally require engines installed in gliders to meet the same requirements as new engines, starting in 2017 but with limited exceptions for existing small businesses that would allow industry to produce enough gliders to address legitimate purposes 23

24 Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Requirements for Class 7 and Class 8 Combination Tractors Covered in this category Share of HDV fuel consumption and GHG emissions Per vehicle fuel consumption and CO 2 improvement Form of the standard Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet standards Flexibilities Phase 1 Program Tractors that are designed to pull trailers and move freight. Final 2027 Standards Combination tractors and their engines account for approximately 60 percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty vehicle sector. 10%-23% improvement over MY 2010 baseline, depending on tractor subcategory. 19%-25% improvement over MY 2017 baseline, depending on tractor subcategory. EPA: CO 2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload mile Aerodynamic drag improvements; low rolling resistance tires; high strength steel and aluminum weight reduction; extended idle reduction; and speed limiters ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded (five year credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carry-forward credit deficits for up to three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not accounted for by the HD Phase 1 test procedures, and credits for certifying early. Further technology improvements and increased use of all Phase 1 technologies, plus engine improvements, improved transmissions and axles, tire inflation systems, and predictive cruise control (depending on tractor type) Same ABT and off-cycle program as Phase 1. Revised multipliers for Phase 2 advanced technologies. Enhanced Phase 1 credit generation opportunities. 24

25 Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Requirements for Trailers Phase 1 Program Final 2027 Standards Covered in this category N/A All lengths of dry vans, refrigerated vans, tanks, flatbeds, and container chassis hauled by low, mid, and high roof day and sleeper cab tractors. Share of HDV fuel consumption and GHG emissions Per vehicle fuel consumption and CO 2 improvement Trailers are modeled together with combination tractors and their engines. Together, they account for approximately 60 percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector. N/A Between 3% and 9% improvement over MY 2018 baseline, depending on the trailer type. Form of the standard N/A EPA: CO 2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: gallons /1,000 ton payload mile Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet standards N/A Low rolling resistance tires and tire pressure systems for most trailers, plus weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements such as side and rear fairings, gap closing devices, and undercarriage treatment for box vans (e.g., dry and refrigerated) Flexibilities N/A One year delay in implementation for small businesses, trailer manufacturers may use pre-approved aerodynamic data in lieu of additional testing, averaging program available in MY 2027 for manufacturers of dry and refrigerated box vans, small business flexibilities. 25

26 Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Requirements for Vocational Vehicles Covered in this category Share of HDV fuel consumption and GHG emissions Per vehicle fuel consumption and CO 2 improvement Phase 1 Program Final 2027 Standard Class 2b 8 chassis that are intended for vocational services such as delivery vehicles, emergency vehicles, dump truck, tow trucks, cement mixer, refuse trucks, etc., except those qualified as off-highway vehicles. Vocational vehicle chassis are segmented into Light, Medium and Heavy Duty vehicle categories. Starting in Phase 2 each of these segments is further subdivided using three duty cycles: Regional, Multi-purpose, and Urban. Vocational vehicles account for approximately 17 percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector categories 6-8% improvement over MY 2010 baseline, in addition to improvements from Phase 1 engine standards. Up to 24% improvement over MY 2017 baseline including engines, up to 20% beyond improvements from separate engine standards. Form of the standard Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet standards Flexibilities EPA: CO 2 grams/ton payload mile and NHTSA: gallons of fuel/1,000 ton payload mile Low rolling resistance tires Low rolling resistance tires; improved engines, transmissions and axles; weight reduction; hybrids; and workday idle reduction systems. ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded (five year credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carryforward credit deficits for up to three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not accounted for by the HD Phase 1 test procedures, and credits for certifying early. Same as Phase 1, but with revised advanced technology incentives, and extended Phase 1 credit life for certain vehicles and technologies. Chassis intended for emergency vehicles, cement mixers, coach buses, school buses, transit buses, refuse trucks, and motor homes may optionally use application-specific Phase 2 standards using fewer GEM inputs. Adjustment factor of 1.36 for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to change in useful life. 26

27 Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Requirements for HD Pick-up Trucks and Vans Phase 1 Program Final 2027 Standard Covered in this category Class 2b and 3 complete pickup trucks and vans, including all work vans and 15-passenger vans but excluding 12- passenger vans which are subject to light-duty standards. Share of HDV fuel HD pickups and vans account for approximately 23% of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty consumption and GHG truck sector. emissions Per vehicle fuel consumption and CO 2 improvement Form of the standard Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet standards Flexibilities 15% improvement over MY 2010 baseline for diesel vehicles, and 10% improvement for gasoline vehicles 16% improvement over MY Phase 1 standards are based upon a work factor attribute that combines truck payload and towing capabilities, with an added adjustment for 4-wheel drive vehicles. There are separate target curves for diesel-powered and gasolinepowered vehicles. The Phase 2 standards are based on the same approach. Engine improvements, transmission improvements, aerodynamic drag improvements, low rolling resistance tires, weight reduction, and improved accessories. Two optional phase-in schedules; ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded (five year credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carry-forward credit deficits for up to three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not accounted for by the HD Phase 1 test procedures, and credits for certifying early. Further technology improvements and increased use of all Phase 1 technologies, plus engine stop-start, and powertrain hybridization (mild and strong). Same as Phase 1, with phase-in schedule based on yearover-year increase in stringency. Same ABT and off-cycle program as Phase 1. Adjustment factor of 1.25 for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 due to change in useful life. Revised multipliers for Phase 2 advanced technologies. No Phase 2 early credit multipliers. 27

28 Summary of Phase 1 and Phase 2 Requirements for Engines in Tractors and Vocational Vehicles Covered in this category Share of HDV fuel consumption and GHG emissions Per vehicle fuel consumption and CO 2 improvement Form of the standard Example technology options available to help manufacturers meet standards Flexibilities Phase 1 Program Final 2027 Standards Engines installed in tractors and vocational chassis. Combination tractors and vocational vehicles account for approximately 77 percent of fuel use and GHG emissions in the medium and heavy duty truck sector. 5%-9% improvement over MY 2010 baseline, depending vehicle application. Engine improvements are included in the improvements cited for tractor and vocational vehicle standards, therefore, are not additive. 4%-5% improvement over MY 2017 for diesel engines. Note that improvements are captured in complete vehicle tractor and vocational vehicle standards, so that engine improvements and the vehicle improvement are not additive. EPA: CO 2 grams/horsepower-hour and NHTSA: gallons of fuel/100 horsepower-hour Combustion, air handling, friction and emissions Further technology improvements and increased use of all after-treatment technology improvements ABT program which allows emissions and fuel consumption credits to be averaged, banked, or traded (five year credit life). Manufacturers allowed to carry-forward credit deficits for up to three model years. Interim incentives for advanced technologies, recognition of innovative (off-cycle) technologies not accounted for by the HD Phase 1 test procedures, and credits for certifying early. Phase 1 technologies, plus waste heat recovery systems for tractor engines (e.g., turbo-compound and Rankine-cycle) Same as Phase 1, but with revised advanced technology incentives. Adjustment factor of 1.36 for credits carried forward from Phase 1 to Phase 2 for SI and LHD CI engines due to change in useful life. Extended Phase 1 credit life and relaxed 2024 standards incentive for an optional 1-year pull-ahead of Phase 2 tractor engine standards. 28

29 NPRM and FRM Diesel Fuel price projections $5.00 U.S. Diesel Fuel Price Projections: AEO 2014 (NPRM) and AEO 2015 (FRM) $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 Year Delta $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $0.21 $ NPRM (AEO 2014) FRM (AEO 2015) 29