The Future of Automobiles in 2035

Transcription

1 2015 SAE Powertrains, Fuels & Lubricants Meeting 1 toward realization of sustainable mobility society for customer s smiles Masanori SUGIYAMA Toyota Motor Corporation

2 Contents 2 1. Introduction 2. Diversification of Fuels and Powertrains 3. Powertrain Development - Past, Present and Future 4. Summary

3 Contents 3 1. Introduction 2. Diversification of Fuels and Powertrains 3. Powertrain Development - Past, Present and Future 4. Summary

4 Environments Surrounding Automobiles 4 Global developments of industry and technology the 20th century downward Energy security (Crude oil) Large consumption of fossil fuel Global warming (GHGs increase) Motorization growth around the world Air pollution (Ozone, SPM, etc.) Automobile Issues; 1. Energy security, 2. GHGs increase, 3. Air pollution

5 Forecast of Oil Supply 5 Million BPD (oil equivalence) Conventional oil Challenge for Fuel Diversification Bio-fuels Others Natural gas liquids Oil sand Tight oil Deep water Unconventional oil Year (Source : ExxonMobil) Unconventional oil (Oil sand) World oil supply will increase through progress of unconventional oil development.

6 Forecast of CO2 Concentration 6 Challenge for Prompt CO2 Reduction CO2 concentration (ppm) a. Atmospheric CO2 concentration CMIP5: Emission-driven Concentration-driven default c. Atmospheric CO2 concentration CMIP3&C4MIP emulation: 90% 68% Ranges 50% Concentration-driven default Global-Mean Temperature relative to ( C) b. Global mean surface air temperature CMIP5: Emission-driven Concentration-driven d. Global mean surface air temperature CMIP3&C4MIP emulation: 90% 68% Ranges 50% (Source : IPCC 5 th Assessment Report) 2100 High GHG emission scenario of IPCC suggests the global surface temperature will increase about 5 by the late 21st century.

7 Situation and Impact of Ozone Concentration Increase 7 Increase of Ozone Concentration Impact of Ozone for Crop and Human (Source : The Royal Society) Before Industrial Revolution Lesser et al. (1990) Skarbyet al. (1993) Kobayashi et al. (1995) A nose and sore throat Headache (Source : NIES) Current Environmental standard (Japan) 60 Crop rate decrease (%) Soybean Current level Average ozone concentration (ppb) Wheat Cotton Corn Wheat Rice Tropospheric ozone increase in the northern hemisphere has concerns of the influences on human health and farm products.

8 Automaker s Mission 8 Fun-to-drive Customer s Smiles Convenience Climate fluctuations Pollution prevention Alternative energy Sustainable Mobility Automaker Reliability Safety Energy Fuel Powertrain: Reduce tank-to-wheel energy consumption and minimize the burden on the environment.

9 History of Power Sources and Future Direction 9 Cugnot's Steam Carriage (1771, France) Steam Engine Electrification I.C.E SI (Gasoline) CI (Diesel) Bentz (1885, Germany) Porche s EV (1900, Germany) TOYOTA Prius (1997, Japan) TOYOTA Mirai (2014, Japan) CO2 CO2 concentration Prompt Development Ford Model T (1913, USA) MANN Diesel Truck (1924, Germany) Citroen 5CV Type C3 (1925, France) NISSAN LEAF (2010, Japan) Ref.; World History of the Automobile by Erik Eckermann Higher efficient and cleaner powertrains are essential for sustainable society.

10 Global Powertrain Prospects Improve case Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Passenger LDV sales (million) Electricity Plug-in Hybrid Diesel Plug-in Hybrid Gasoline Diesel Hybrid Gasoline Hybrid CNG/LPG Diesel Using Internal Combustion Engine Gasoline (Source : IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012) In the improve case*, passenger LDVs with ICEs will still account for nearly 80% of new vehicle sales in *focused on technology improvements lowering GHG emissions

11 Challenges Towards Sustainable Mobility Society 11 Energy & Powertrain Mix for Sustainable Mobility Gasoline Gas oil Bio-fuel CNG Synthetic fuel Electricity Hydrogen Conventional vehicle & HEV PHV EV FCV Challenge; Higher Thermal Efficiency Prompt Development Challenge; Fuel Diversification Year Short-term Mid-term Challenge; Battery Popularization Challenge; Infrastructure Short-term challenges ; Related to internal combustion engines Mid-term challenges ; Related to electrification in mobility

12 Corporate Research of Innovative Technologies 12 Government Academia Collaborative Action Oil-industry Auto-industry

13 Corporative Research of Innovative Technology Development 13 SIP; Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program Cabinet Office Council for Science, Technology and Innovation (CSTI) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Budget Japan Science and Technology Agency Entrust Universities (Research Team) -Leader -Clusters OEMs ( FY) 10 Research Themes in SIP -Innovative combustion technologies -Energy carrier (Hydrogen society) -Innovation of Automated Driving for Universal Services, -Structural Materials for Innovation and so on.

14 Innovative Combustion Technology Research in SIP 14 [Purpose] Establishing engine combustion technologies [Target] Maximum thermal efficiency ; 50% CO2 reduction ; 30% (based on 2011) 4 research teams organized by universities and OEMs Gasoline Combustion Team Diesel Combustion Team Support Combustion Control Team Energy Loss Reduction Team The Research association of Automotive Internal Combustion Engines [Purpose] Resolving technical issues for higher thermal efficiency and lower exhaust emissions 4 working parties -Gasoline Combustion -Diesel Combustion -Friction Loss Reduction -CAE

15 Contents Introduction 2. Diversification of Fuels and Powertrains 3. Powertrain Development - Past, Present and Future 4. Summary

16 Ethanol Expansion E3 Ethanol E5 16 E10 E10+ E20+ U.S.A. E10/E15/E85 Brazil E27/E100 Thailand E10/E20/E85 Indonesia 15 - E2( 16 -) 20 - E5 Philippine 25 - E E E20 Paraguay E24/E100 Some countries in Southeast Asia and South America have the energy policy to use higher bio-ethanol blend gasoline to vehicles.

17 Biodiesel Expansion B2 Biodiesel B3 17 B5 Thailand 15 - B B10( 21 -) B7 B10 Indonesia 15/Apr B15 B Philippine 25 - B B B B20 Some countries in Southeast Asia have the energy policy to increase the biodiesel blend ratio gradually in near future.

18 Trends of Natural Gas Utilization Natural Gas Global NGV holdings (2013FY) Ukraine 0.39million Others 2.13million Thailand 0.42million Iran Uzbekistan 0.45million 3.50million Colombia 0.46million NGVs Italy 0.82million China 19.89million 3.00million (2013FY) Brazil 1.78million India 1.80million Pakistan 2.79million Argentina 2.33million Source; The Gas Vehicle Report, March 2014 Countries over 50% in self-sufficient ratio of NG Countries over 1% of NGV s ratio in total vehicle holdings NGVs have been mainly introduced into NG production countries in Asia and South America. 18

19 Diversification in Automotive Fuels and Powertrains Powertrains Gasoline Conventional vehicle & HEV Gas oil Natural gas CNG Coal Synthetic fuel Biomass Bio-fuel Nuclear energy Electricity Water/Wind/ Solar power Hydrogen PHV EV Energy saving Crude oil Automotive fuels Fuel diversification Primary energies 19 FCV Fuel diversification will progress moreover. However, conventional fuels from crude oil will be still mainstream for a few decades.

20 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Diversification of Fuels and Powertrains 3. Powertrain Development - Past, Present and Future 4. Summary 20

21 Basic Way to Improve Powertrain Efficiency How to convert each drop of fuel efficiently into energy and maximize work Improvement of powertrain efficiency Improvement of engine thermal efficiency How to convert each drop of fuel efficiently into engine torque Improvement of transmission efficiency How to transmit the energy of the powertrain efficiently to the tires Reduction of vehicle running resistance Reduction of drag Weight reduction A fundamental way of improving the powertrain efficiency is to develop more efficient components and to minimize the combined losses. 21

22 History of Toyota Internal Combustion Engines 1st engine M (1965) 1G-E (1980) World s first lean-burn Common rail diesel 4A-E (1984) 1CD-FTV (1999) 3S-FE (1986) Toyota gasoline engines for hybrid vehicles Toyota gasoline engines for conventional vehicles 37.0%:world s best (at launch) 3S-GTE (1986) 1G-GE (1982) 18R-G (1972) D-4S turbo 8AR-FTS (2014) 2GR-FSE (2005) ４valves as standard engine Sporty Engine R-E (1972) D-4S (dual inj.) EFI expansion NR-FTS (2015) ESTEC 1NR-FKE (2014) VN-turbo DI diesel 1KD-FTV (2000) Atkinson cycle 1NZ-FXE (1997) 40.0%:world s best (at launch) 2ZZ-GE (1999) GD-FTV (2015) 2ZR-FXE (2015) 1LR-GUE (2010) 2UR-GSE (2007) Toyota has been challenging to develop the technologies for more efficient and cleaner engines. (Maximum thermal efficiency) For mass volume A (1935) Electric fuel inj. First OHC 22

23 Maximum thermal efficiency (%) Thermal Efficiency Improvement % World s best (at launch) 37.0% World s best (at launch) 40 1st-gen. Prius 4th-gen. Prius 3rd-gen. Prius 2nd-gen. Prius 40.0% World s best (at launch) 35 Toyota gasoline engines for hybrid vehicles Toyota gasoline engines for conventional vehicles % maximum thermal efficiency engine launched in

24 Thermal Efficiency Improvement (Gasoline Engines) 24 Maximum thermal efficiency (%) Challenge for Sustainable Mobility 55 - Heat Recovery 50 - Super Lean Burn - HCCI - Heat Insulation - Variable CR % World s best (at launch) 37.0% World s best (at launch) 40 1st-gen. Prius Future direction Prompt Development 4th-gen. Prius 3rd-gen. Prius 2nd-gen. Prius 40.0% World s best (at launch) 35 Toyota gasoline engines for hybrid vehicles Toyota gasoline engines for conventional vehicles Source: Toyota Prompt development of higher thermal efficiency engines is needed for realization of sustainable mobility

25 History of Transmissions ＭＴ 3-speed speed 4-speed ＡＴ 6-spped RWD 5-speed 2-speed FWD 6-speed 4-speed 6-speed 3-speed 5-speed RWD 3-speed 8-speed ＣＶＴ RWD 2-speed RWD 8-speed HEV T/A FWD large FWD small MT: manual transmission AT: automatic transmission T/A: transaxle Total gear ratio st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th AT Smooth dynamic performance and improved urban fuel economy AT AT AT Improved standing start acceleration performance Improved high-speed fuel economy Adoption of CVTs for higher efficiency CVT Prius HEV e-cvt Number of shift speeds has been increased and led to CVTs for higher efficiency and smoother driveability

26 CO2 Emission [g/km] (under NEDC) Comparison of CO2 emissions (NEDC) 300 Gasoline Turbo Gasoline Diesel 200 CAMRY 100 4th-gen PRIUS YARIS HV Toyota Gasoline HEV 2500 Vehicle Weight [kg] Hybrid System : Better CO2 than the other systems

27 HEV Development and Expansion Prius (THS) THS with good fuel economy and lowest emissions World s first mass produced HEV Prius (THS ll) THS-ll: enhanced environmental & driving performance Prius (THS ll) Auris HEV 2nd Auris HEV CT200h Prius PHV Prius PHV RX400h RX450h Highlander HEV 2nd Highlander HEV Kluger HEV Camry HEV 2nd Camry HEV ES300h HS250h SAI THS-II system application for several models Aqua Yaris HEV Corolla HEV Harrier HEV Noah/Voxy HEV NX300h RWD HEVs GS450h 2nd GS450h LS600h Series hybrid with small engine LS600hL Crown HEV 2nd Crown HEV IS300h Majesta Coaster HEV Parallel hybrid CVT RC300h Estima HEV 2nd Estima HEV Alphard HEV Parallel hybrid with diesel Mild hybrid Toyota Dyna HEV Crown mild hybrid 2nd Alphard HEV

28 Sales Volume of Toyota Hybrid Vehicles 28 Source: Toyota 8 million units 7 million units (million) 6 million units 4 million units Number of units sold per year cumulative 3 million units 113months Per year Cumulative (million) 5 million units 27months 2 million units 1 million units It took a long time to popularize the hybrid vehicles since the introduction of the first Prius model. As of 2015

29 Fuel Economy Regulations and Powertrain Potentials (Image) Fuel economy: CO2 (g/km) Worse 160 C-segment Conventional engines (gasoline and diesel) ＨＥＶ Mid-term challenge ＰＨＶ EV, FCV 20 Better (Year) Conventional powertrains alone will not be sufficient to comply with fuel economy regulations in the near future. 29

30 Separate Mobility Zone for EVs and FCVs System cost EV Advantage : EV FCV Advantage : FCV Cruising range FCVs have the advantage over EVs in medium and long cruising range. 30

31 Future Vision of Mobility Zones 31 FCV zone HEV/PHV zone Vehicle size Shuttle bus EV zone Passenger car Full-size truck HEV Home delivery vehicle Short-distance commuter FCV BUS) EV FCV Home delivery truck PHV Personal mobility Cruising range Fuel; Electricity Gasoline, diesel, biofuels, CNG, synthetic fuels, etc. Hydrogen The separate mobility zones will emerge with suitable application of each energy and powertrain.

32 EV Development Nissan Leaf (2010) Toyota RAV4 EV Mitsubishi I-MiEV (1997) (2009) (1899) Issues of EVs (1) Cruising range (2) Cost (3) Charging time (4) Dedicated charging infrastructure (5) Battery lifetime Toyota eq (2012) Cruising range based on JC08 mode (km) Nissan Leaf 228 Toyota eq 100 The fundamental issues of EVs cannot be addressed even with the latest Li-ion batteries.

33 FCV Development 33 Core FCV Technology Zero emissions Performance Practical cruising range (650 km) Refueling time (approx. 3 min.) Cold-start capability (-30ºC) Tank to Wheel Zero CO2 emissions JC08 mode Output power density: Improved more than double (Compared to TOYOTA FCHV-adv) Tank storage density: Improved approx. 20% Compared to TOYOTA FCHV-adv 70MPa 70MPa hydrogen storage per unit tank mass Top-level Achieved Top-level Achieved Toyota launched Mirai FCV on Japanese market in kW/L 5.7wt%

34 Optimum Powertrain Development at Toyota Optimum powertrains for each vehicle class Aygo Auris Lexus LS Lexus RC HiLux LC Optimum powertrains in accordance with regional characteristics and usage environment High way Congestion Un-paved road 3. Combination of components with a full knowledge of the advantages and disadvantages of each component Engine Transmission Motor Battery Fuel cell stack

35 Future Energy System HyGrid Concept Utilization of HyGrid, integration of electricity grid and hydrogen grid, enables optimization of total energy use. 35

36 Future Energy System 36 Fossil fuels still important Fossil Fuels HVs Urban/ residential Refineries/Chemical plants Efficient utilization of fossil fuels should be essential to realize sustainable mobility society in the future.

37 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Diversification of Fuels and Powertrains 3. Powertrain Development - Past, Present and Future 4. Summary 37

38 Summary 38 Energy & Powertrain Mix for Sustainable Mobility Gasoline Gas oil Bio-fuel CNG Synthetic fuel Electricity Hydrogen Conventional vehicle & HEV Challenge; Higher Thermal Efficiency Short-term Prompt Development Challenge; Fuel Diversification PHV EV FCV Mid-term Challenge; Battery Popularization Challenge; Infrastructure Year It is necessary to promote challenging developments in conventional ICEs and electrification of powertrains for sustainable mobility.

39 Summary 39 Academia Government Closely Related Four Groups Collaborative Prompt Action Oil-industry -Technology/Research -Infrastructure Auto-industry

40 Summary 40 For each region around the world For the customer's smile For the environment and sustainable mobility we shall promote innovative new technologies together with government, academia, oil and auto industries.

41 41 Thank you for your kind attention