2009 KEEI s International Conference on New Energy Options for Green Growth September 2, 2009 at Westin Chosun Hotel, Seoul, Korea

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1 2009 KEEI s International Conference on New Energy Options for Green Growth September 2, 2009 at Westin Chosun Hotel, Seoul, Korea Sustainable Automobile Technology and Energy Hirohiko Hoshi BR Energy Affairs Dprt. Toyota Motor Corporation 1

2 Energy & Environmental Issues 1. Uncertain Crude Oil supply and Emerging demand - Unsure the sufficient Oil supply and emerging demands Increase oil price volatility by S/D balance and speculation - Oil quality changes and increase refinery cost - Alternative energy & fuels 2. Climate change by GHG emission - Establish global system for sustainable GHG reduction - GHG emission target by each government - Assessment and Standardization of GHG from vehicle and it s energy source Balance between energy security and environment 2

3 Global Energy Demand Outlook Source: Hart s World Refining & Fuels Service

4 Global Crude Oil Demand Outlook New Crude & Condensate Needed to Meet Demand Total Supply Requirement New Crude Oil Production Requirement Crude and Condensate Unconventional Heavy oil NGL Biofuel/GTL/CTL/Other New Conventional Oil Source: Hart s World Refining & Fuels Service

5 Solution for issues Strong Policies Required at National and International Levels Gigatonnes CO Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario 9% 14% 23% Nuclear CCS Renewables & biofuels Energy efficiency 30 54% Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario Presented by Hart Energy consulting, May 2009 Source: IEA WEO 2008, Lew Fulton Hart s World Refining & Fuels Conference Brussels 5

6 Possibility of CO2 emission reduction It is Potentially possible to decline the picture of reducing CO2 by more than 40% from the current level of CO2 emissions up to 2050 It is Potentially possible to decline the picture of reducing CO2 by more than 40% from the current level of CO2 emissions up to 2050 Source: IEEJ 6

7 Alternative Energy source for Automobiles Oil Gasoline/diesel (Conventional Conventional) Gasoline/diesel (from deep sea oil field, oil shale etc.) Natural Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Hydro, Solar, Geothermal etc. Power Generation Hydrogen production Gas storage technology Gasification/synthetic technology Obtain desired property Electrical storage technology for PHV and small EV Technology utilizing cellulose Infrastructure development Build Infrastructure Higher Price CO 2 reduction technology (during production of fuel) Stable supply CO 2 reduction technology (thermal power plant) Hydrogen storage CO 2 reduction technology technology (during hydrogen production) Infrastructure develoment Gas Synthetic Fuel (GTL/CTL/BTL) Electrical storage Technology for EV Bio-ethanol/ Bio-diesel Electricity Hydrogen Internal combustion EV FCHV All of alternative fuels are facing significant issues & barriers. Source: Toyota 7

8 Future Demand Conventional Fuel vs. Biofuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Million Barrels Per Day Latin America North America Europe Asia 8 Source: Hart s Global Biofuels Center

9 Vehicle Fuel Perspectives Alternative fuel to save Oil and reduce GHGs Issues to be discussed Production perspective of alternative Fuel (World) Fuel supply Infrastructure in the City Fuel Quality standard Energy for Fuel production and CO2 emissions (WTW) 9

10 Automotive Fuel Scenario (Gasoline) Gasoline Oil Product from non-food resources Ethanol(including E85:FFV) Biomass blend Quality Target *) < E10 / Ether15 Ethanol/ETBE blend *) : Based on Automobile industries requirement WWFC (World wide Fuels Charter) Short term : - Ethanol blend in Gasoline <E10. Medium term : - Higher Ethanol and ETBE blend to reduce GHG. - It is expected that harmonization of high concentration ethanol fuel specifications. 10

11 Automotive Fuel Scenario (Diesel) Diesel Fuel Oil FAME< Biomass FTD (BTL) FTD (GTL, CTL) Natural gas, Coal w/co2 sequestration blend 2030 Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) Quality Target *) - Sulfur/Aromatics/CN/FAME same properties Almost Short term : - Cleaner diesel fuel (S, Aromatics, CN & <5%FAME). Medium term : - Various type of alternative diesel fuel will be introduced. - However, these fuels properties will be able to controlled by same specification ( zero S, Aromatics and high CN) - Expand usage of Bio-fuels to reduce GHG 11

12 Overview of Vehicle Technology Improve Efficiency to save Oil and Reducing GHGs Reducing vehicle weight Improving Engine Efficiency Hybrid Technology 12

13 Vehicle CO2 Emissions Large CO 2 Emission (g/km) EC mode Gasoline Diesel Gasoline HV Vehicle Weight (ton) Heavy Vehicle weight reduction is very important to reduce CO2. Improvement engine efficiency can contribute to reduce CO2. HVs have large advantages of CO2 Reduction (= Higher Efficiency). Source: Toyota 13

Reducing Size and Weight of Vehicles Differential gear reverse placement Center take-off gearbox Placement of ultra-thin fuel tank under floor Slimmed seat

14 Reducing Size and Weight of Vehicles Differential gear reverse placement Center take-off gearbox Placement of ultra-thin fuel tank under floor Slimmed seat backs Compact air conditioning unit Asymmetric installment panel Size and weight reduction is crucial to energy conservation and lower CO2 emissions Source: Toyota 14

15 HV Advantages in City Driving (%) Avg.Speed 32km/h Avg.S Speed 77km/h City Hwy City Hwy Midium Sub-Compact Improvement FE by HV (EPA: km/h 0 Beijing Dalian Langfang Jurian Shanghai Ningbo Wuhan Chongqing Average speed in Cities (km/hr) SUMO Report HV vehicles are very effective to improve FE in city driving. Source: Toyota 15

16 Evolution of E-Motors & Inverter Output density ratio Prius 03 Prius 05 RX400h 06 GS450h 07 LS600h E-Motors 50 kw 33 kw 165 kw 147 kw 123 kw Output density ratio Inverter Reducing size and weight by increasing output density Source: Toyota 16

17 Battery s Evolution for Hybrid Vehicles Mass output t density (W/kg) Lighter 2003 Prius (Square plastic package) 2000 Prius (Square resin package) 1997 Prius (Cylindrical) RX400h (Square metal package) Smaller 0 Volume output density (W/L) Decreasing size and weight by increasing output density Source: Toyota 17

R&D for Next-generation Batteries *Sakichi

18 R&D for Next-generation Batteries *Sakichi Toyoda was the founder of the Toyota Group. Output Den nsity (W/l) Ni-MH Solid state Battery Metal-Air Battery Limit of Traditional battery Sakichi * Batteries Energy Density (W/l) : Cruising Distance Source: Toyota 18

19 Electricity Application for Vehicles Household electricity Engine Motor Battery Fuel Tank Recharging battery using an external power source Short distance:ev, Long distance:hv Source: Toyota 19

20 Effect of PHV for Reducing CO2 Emissions Driving in Tokyo area PHV Gasoline (km/l) CO2 HEV (g/km) CO2 PHEV (g/km) CO2 ratio (PHV/HEV %) Electricity mix in Japan SOC of Battery HV Gasoline (km/l) CDM (Charge depleting mode) CSM (Charge sustained mode) In the short distance PHV has large advantage with normal HV. In a longer distance, it come with normal Hybrid Vehicles. Effect of CO2 reduction depends electricity mix Source: Toyota 20

21 Electricity in each Country Electricity Consumption, 1000kWh/Population Renewable /Nuclear N.G. Oil Coal Japan CO2-g/kWh Source : IEA CO2 Emission From Fuel Combustion (2008) Modified by Toyota 21

22 Long term Energy Scenarios (Japan) Source: Energy Technology Road Map by METI, Oct

23 Modal Split for Passenger Transport Based on Modal split for all passenger transport, passenger-trips the Others Bicycle and Foot Taxi Motorcycle Subway/Rail Bus Private Car Extreme deference of Modal split for each cities. Private car fuel economy will be more important in Asian cities. Beijing Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Bangkok Hanoi Mexico San Francisco Vancouver Extreme deference of Modal split for each cities. Private car fuel economy will be more important in Asian cities. Source : APERC

24 Future Mobility per 1,000 Po opulation, A fairly high correlation lies between passenger vehicle population and gasoline consumption. A wide gap is seen between San Francisco and the APEC cities. People in USA are enjoying the car utility, but spend much of energies. It suggests that high efficiency vehicles will contribute to consist with utility and CO2 reduction Source : APERC

25 Summary Automobile manufactures are facing very serious energy security and environmental issues. Modal shift in mega-city might be important solution, however, if advanced vehicle technology applied, personal transportation system that is extremely convenient for people can survive in mega-city. Especially, hybrid vehicles are very effective on personal transportation in mega-city because it doesn t require additional infrastructure and it can coexistent with normal vehicles. Existing vehicle should be concerned when new type of fuel/energy introduced. Bi-fuel vehicles will be contribute as a practical solution. E85 FFV, PHV and Bi-fuel NGV It is needed to prepare post Oil era by FCV and EV (PHV). & Infrastructure of Hydrogen, Electricity charging system. 25

Toyota s Initiatives for Realizing Sustainable Mobility. September 5, 2008 Kazuo Okamoto Toyota Motor Corporation

Toyota s Initiatives for Realizing Sustainable Mobility September 5, 2008 Kazuo Okamoto Toyota Motor Corporation 1 Toyota s Actions Focused on Rapid Changes Today 2 Advanced Gasoline Engine Technology