SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY

Transcription

1 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY IN TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY Dr. Nils-Olof Nylund Picture: Agroetanol AB 1

2 OUTLINE Transport related environmental issues Sufficiency of oil resources World vehicle fleet and usage of transportation fuels Alternative fuels and drivetrains options performance outlook policies Conclusions 2

3 Source: Ben Knight, Honda,

4 DEFINITIONS A local environmental problem A problem that threatens your health and well-being already today A global environmental problem A problems that threatens your existence in the future Photo: Markku Ikonen (Tanzania 1991) 4

5 EMISSION TRENDS IN TRANSPORTATION Source: Wiederkehr/OECD

6 TECHNOLOGY CAN ELIMINATE TOXIC EMISSIONS! 6

7 ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF OIL? Source: IEA WEO October 2004 Source: WTRG April

8 Source: Paul Wuebben, SCAQMD,

9 WORLD VEHICLE FLEET Total number of vehicles approximately 800 millions EU millions USA 215 millions Japan 73 millions Russia 26 millions China 16 millions (OECD 2003, Statistical Pocketbook 2004) 9

10 WORLD PRODUCTION OF LIQUID BIOFUELS World road fuel usage ~ Mtoe/a - alternative fuels from biomass and other sources ~ 0.5 % ~ 50 Mtoe 10

11 Source: Charles E. Wyman et al

12 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IN EU Ethanol Biodiesel ktoe/a Biodiesel tonne ~ 0.9 toe Ethanol tonne ~ 0.64 toe Rapid growth, but relative share still below 1 %! Sources: EurObservER, System Solaires 2005, European Biodiesel Board 12

13 REQUIREMENTS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS Definitions by the Swedish Road Administration Alternative fuels have to be compatible with the environment and the future high system efficiency global feedstock supply applicable to future powertrains significant reduction of CO 2 emissions low toxic emissions moderate costs, benefits have to be higher than the costs increase (long term perspective) 13

14 FUEL ALTERNATIVES Ethanol used as a gasoline component (EtOH tai ETBE) up to 85 % concentration possible in Fuel Flexible Vehicles (FFVs) European grain based ethanol is expensive the goal is set on production of ethanol from cellulosic feedstocks Biodiesel used as a fuel component or even as such mostly esterified vegetable oil (rape, soy, palm oil) virgin European biodiesel is expensive also animal fats and waste oils can be used Neste Oil will start production of 2 nd generation biodiesel in

15 FUEL ALTERNATIVES Synthetic fuels gas-to-liquids GTL, coal-to-liquids CTL, biomass-to-liquids BTL mostly based on synthesis gas steam reforming (natural gas) or gasification (coal, biomass) main product high-quality paraffinic Fischer-Tropsch diesel also methanol and DME possible products Natural gas (methane) significant gas resources requires dedicated refuelling systems and vehicles light-duty vehicles often gasoline/gas bi-fuel vehicles possibility to reduce emissions (CO 2 emissions for gasoline vehicles and toxic emissions for diesel vehicles) biogas gives equal vehicle performance as natural gas 15

16 METHANE REDUCES PARTICLE EMISSIONS Natural gas 16

17 FUEL ALTERNATIVES LPG a good substitute for gasoline limited supply in many countries no bio-option DME a gaseous fuel for diesel engines resembles LPG limited production, would require a new refuelling infrastructure and new vehicles Hydrogen no production of energy hydrogen for the moment what is the source of the primary energy? fuel cell vehicles still in the early development stage significant investment in FC and hydrogen research in Europe, Japan and USA commercialization by 2020? 17

18 Demands on Future Fuels gasoline biodiesel ethanol methanol diesel LPG DME natural gas hydrogen Diversification on the fuels side is economically unacceptable Blending relating to existing fuel specification methanol, ethanol, biodiesel Group Research Powertrain Diversification on the primary energy side from crude oil to natural gas, coal and biomass to blend into existing fuels Frank Seyfried 2005 VOLKSWAGEN AG

19 Characterization of Synthetic Fuels Synthetic Fuels Conv. Biofuels Process Group GTL (Gas to Liquid) SynFuel CTL (Coal to Liquid) SynFuel BTL (Biomass to Liquid) SunFuel e.g. FAME*, Bio Ethanol Product SunDiesel 2nd Generation of Advanced Biofuels 1st Generation of Biofuels Frank Seyfried 2005 * FAME: Fat Acid Methyl Ester

20 WELL-TO-WHEEL ENERGY USE AND GHG EMISSIONS FOR PASSENGER CARS Concawe/JRC

21 THE BIOFUEL DILEMMA Conventional vehicles running on conventional fuels are approaching zero regulated emissions No biofuels, except methane and hydrogen, will give significant reductions in regulated emissions Some biofuel options have a questionable GHG balance % of Emissions Remaining CO HC NOx 100% = Level Before Standards Sum of HC+NOx > 10 NOx 0 HC Component CO CO HC NOx Blending in classic biocomponents will not necessarily improve fuel quality Year It is impossible to reach 5.75% fuel substitution with classic biocomponents if European EN 228 (gasoline) and EN 590 (diesel) specifications are to be met 21

22 WHITE PAPER ON TRANSPORT POLICY 2001 Why? How? Integrating transport into sustainable development Air quality and climate change Transport consumes energy: 28% of emissions of CO 2, the main greenhouse gas. If nothing is done: CO 2 emissions up 50% between 1990 and % of transport emissions generated by road transport. Security of supply Transport is 98% dependent on oil, 70% of which is imported. Tackling noise pollution The Gothenburg European Council placed breaking the link between economic growth and transport growth at the heart of the sustainable development strategy. Issues discussed: economic significance of the transport sector congestion and safety trans-european networks transport mode shifts and intermodality high quality urban transport sustainable transport systems and sustainable mobility oil dependency Directorate-General for Energy and Transport Information - Communication 8

23 GREEN PAPER ON EUROPEAN UNION ENERGY POLICY Adopted in 2000 Calls for, e.g.: 20% substitute fuels in 2020 development of clean vehicles Alternative fuels in 2020 natural gas 10% biofuels 8% hydrogen 2% (5%) 23

24 NEWEST GREEN PAPER: ENERGY EFFICIENCY 2005 Target: 20 % energy savings by

25 BIOFUELS DIRECTIVE 2003/30/EC Draft Directive November 2001 Adopted on May 8 th 2003 Member States should ensure that a minimum proportion of biofuels and other renewable fuels is placed on their markets, and, to that effect, shall set national indicative targets. originally mandatory targets were planned progress will be reviewed in 2006 Reference values for these targets are (energy basis): 2% by 31 December % by 31 December

26 ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES IN SWEDEN Source: Lars Guldbrand

27 GERMAN NGV DEVELOPMENT Source: IGU & ENGVA 2004/

28 EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS (1) 1) Stimulating demand for biofuels. A report will be published in 2006 on a possible revision of the biofuels directive; Member States must be encouraged to favour biofuels (including second generation products), and consideration will be given to biofuel obligations; the Commission has brought forward a proposal to promote clean and efficient vehicles. 2) Capturing environmental benefits. The Commission will examine how biofuels can best contribute to emission targets; work to ensure sustainability of biofuel feedstock cultivation; and look again at limits on biofuel content in petrol and diesel. 3) Developing production and distribution of biofuels. The Commission will propose a specific group to consider biofuels opportunities in rural development programmes; and increase monitoring to ensure no discrimination against biofuels. 28

29 EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS (2) 4) Extending supplies of feedstock. The Commission is making sugar production for bioethanol eligible for CAP support schemes; it will assess possibilities to process cereal intervention stocks; finance an information campaign for farmers and forest owners; bring forward a forestry action plan; and look into the possibilities for using animal by-products and clean waste. 5) Enhancing trade opportunities. The Commission will assess the possibility of putting forward a proposal for separate customs codes for biofuels; it will pursue a balanced approach in trade talks with ethanolproducing countries; and propose amendments to the biodiesel standard. 29

30 EU STRATEGY FOR BIOFUELS (3) 6) Supporting developing countries. The Commission will ensure that measures for ACP Sugar Protocol countries affected by the EU sugar reform can be used to support the development of bioethanol production; develop a coherent Biofuels Assistance Package for developing countries; and examine how best to assist national and regional biofuel platforms. 7) Research and development. The Commission will continue to support the development of an industry-led Biofuel Technology Platform which will make recommendations for research in this sector. Biofuels will have a high priority in the 7th Framework Programme, in particular the bio-refinery concept - finding valuable uses for all parts of the plant and second generation biofuels. Through research, production costs could be cut considerably beyond Through its Intelligent Energy Europe Programme, the Commission will support market introduction and the dissemination of proven technologies. 30

31 BIOENERGY GOALS FOR USA Source: Kaempf, DOE,

32 US ENERGY POLICY ACT AUGUST

33 LAND NEEDED FOR US ETHANOL PRODUCTION Source: ExxonMobil

34 US FUEL OUTLOOK Source: Matthew Brusstar

35 CONCLUSIONS Technology will the solve the problem of toxic exhaust emissions Reducing transport related CO 2 emissions is a great challenge We need to reduce the dependence on oil We are closer to large-scale implementation of alternative motor fuels than ever We need to develop cost and CO 2 effective biofuel options 1 st generation European biofuels are not cost effective We need also to concentrate on: reduced transport work improved vehicle efficiency shifts in transport modes 35