Prediction is very difficult, especially if it s about the future. (Niels Bohr, Nobel Laureate in Physics 1922)

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3 Prediction is very difficult, especially if it s about the future. (Niels Bohr, Nobel Laureate in Physics 1922) 3

4 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 4

5 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 5

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7 Legislation Continues to Tighten Regulated Emissions Standards tighter in all major regions to 2025: Real world driving emission (RDE) in Europe CO 2 / Fuel Economy Tightening in North America and Europe: Supports diesel share in Europe ZEV Mandates North America, China, Norway, Netherlands: Drives electrification City LEZs Various proposals: London, Paris, Madrid, Mexico City, Athens, Stuttgart, ZEV city alliance 7

8 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 8

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12 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 12

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14 New Powertrains Examples Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Toyota Mirai FCEV D Nissan Leaf BEV Mercedes-Benz F-Cell Plug-In 14

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17 Summary: Trends towards 2025 Vehicle numbers increasing (from 90m (89.5m with ICE) in 2016 to 110m (104m with ICE) in 2025) Driven by tightening emissions legislation and fuel economy/ghg/co 2 requirements Emission control systems available for ICEs to meet the most stringent pollutant emissions More diverse powertrains / increased electrification However, in 2025 around 95% of cars and LCVs still have internal combustion engines 17

18 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 18

19 The Paris Agreement At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The Paris Agreement is a bridge between today's policies and climate-neutrality before the end of the century. Governments agreed a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels; to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change; en.htm 19

20 Paris Agreement: What does this mean for us? (1 of 2) To meet the targets of the Paris Agreement the total amount of carbon, which can be released into the atmosphere is 800 billion tons. Until now we (mankind) have already released 590 billion tons of fossil carbon into the atmosphere. This means that we and future generations should not release more than 210 billion tons of fossil carbon into the atmosphere. Currently we release (burn without carbon capture and storage) around 10 billion tonnes of fossil carbon into the atmosphere per year. That is around 1.33 tonnes of carbon (4.9 tons of CO 2 ) per Person (7.5 billion people) per year. If we would continue to burn carbon at the current rate, we have 21 years (until 2038) left... en.htm 20

21 Paris Agreement: What does this mean for us? (2 of 2) 210 billion tons divided by 7.5 billion people (today) = 28 tons carbon/person. This is equivalent to around Litres* of Diesel or Gasoline available for future use. That is about one big tank truck** for each of us to share with our future generations for everything we do (feeding us, keeping us warm/cold, transport, industrial activities ) Dr. Claus Görsmann *assuming a Carbon content of 85% and a density of 0.8 kg/l ** Large tank trucks have a capacity of 43900L

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23 How to manage our Carbon Budget? (2 of 3) 23

24 How to manage our Carbon Budget? (3 of 3) Source: Relationship between global emissions and global temperature rise (Reto Knutti, IPCC ARS Working Group I; Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis) Warming is largely independent of the [GHG/CO 2 ] emission profile. Only the total matters. More emissions or delay early imply stronger reductions later. Allocation over time is an economic and policy problem review/application/pdf/7 knutti.reto.3sed2.pdf 24

25 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 25

26 EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050 Project II - Final Report Figure 10.13: Comparison of the lifecycle GHG trajectories for the Min and Max GHG standard trajectories Direct Average GHG Emissions per vehicle-km (Car) 26

27 Toyota Environmental Challenge

28 Automotive Council UK Passenger Car Low Carbon Technology Roadmap 28

29 Toyota Environmental Challenge

30 Volkswagen: Powertrain Options 30

31 Toyota Environmental Challenge

32 Volkswagen: Possible Evolution of Sustainable Energy for the Automotive Sector 32

33 Volkswagen: Options for storing and using green electricity 33

34 BP Energy Outlook 2017 Edition: Impact of Digital vs. Electrical Revolution Mb/d = millions of barrels per day 1 barrel = 159L 34

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36 Volkswagen: Mobility Scenarios for

37 Scania-Siemens: ehighway 37

38 Siemens: Electrified heavy duty road transport Source: Dr. Michel Lehmann, Siemens AG-Mobility at 12th Integer Emissions Summit & AdBlue Forum Europe, Brussels, June 2016 Source: Dr. Michel Lehmann, Siemens AG-Mobility at 12th Integer Emissions Summit & AdBlue Forum Europe, Brussels, June

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40 Shell: Pathway to net-zero emissions: The Future of Transport Energy This graphic describes our most ambitious scenario, where all technologies even those that are now only in early stages of research and development have been implemented globally to their maximum plausible extent in our view. It shows how those future transport energy needs could be met with a broader fuel mix including electricity and hydrogen. (Note that biofuels are pooled with hydrocarbons in this analysis.) The size of each circle is proportional to that subsector s total consumption of energy if all services were delivered in hydrocarbons. 40

41 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 41

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43 Summary Powertrain Options Low or zero (well-to-wheel) Green-House Gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions Produced and powered through (mainly) sustainable energy sources Biofuels, renewable electricity and hydrogen from renewable sources Minimised use of fossil fuels (5-40% of 1990) with falling trend (reaching zero between 2050 and 2070) Electrified internal combustion engines (ICE), Mild- and Full Hybrids, Plug-In Hybrids, Fuel Cell and Battery Electric vehicles. These low emission vehicles are likely to be connected, capable of autonomous driving and well shared/utilised. 43

44 Summary Challenges for Low/Zero Emission Vehicle Powertrains Cost Battery and Fuel Cell Sytems Infrastructure Hydrogen Filling stations for FCEVs Fast Charging for BEVs Availability of CO2 neutral... Liquid or gaseous fuels for ICEs Renewable electricity / hydrogen 44

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46 Content Powertrain trends towards 2025 Advanced emission control options for ICE powered vehicles New Powertrains becoming commercially available The Transition to zero Green-House-Gas Emissions Technologies The Paris Agreement What does it mean for us? / How to manage our Carbon Budget? Policies and technology expectations/options to meet climate change targets EU, UK Automotive Council, BP, Shell, selected OEMs (Toyota, Volkswagen, Siemens / Scania) Powertrain Options for and their challenges Glossary 46

47 Glossary ASC Ammonia Slip Catalyst BAU Business as usual BEV Battery Electric Vehicle BtL Biomass to Liquid cgpf coated Gasoline Particulate Filter CNG Compressed natural gas CH 4 Methane CO 2 Carbon dioxide COP Conference of Parties COP Paris Climate Conference CSF Catalysed Soot Filter C X H Y Hydrocarbons dcsc Diesel Cold Start Concept ECT Emission Control Technologies EJ Exajoule (10 18 J) EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation EREV Extended Range Electric Vehicle EV Electric Vehicle EU European Union FCEV FCV FHEV GDI GHG GPF GtC H 2 HDD HEV HV IC ICE IPCC JM LCV LEZ LPG Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Fuel Cell Vehicle Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle Gasoline Direct Injection Greenhouse gas Gasoline Particulate Filter Gigatonnes of Carbon (= Billion tonnes of Carbon) Hydrogen Heavy duty diesel Hybrid electric vehicle Hybrid Vehicle Internal Combustion Internal Combustion Engine Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Johnson Matthey Light Commercial Vehicle Low Emission Zone Liquefied petroleum gas 47

48 Glossary Mb/d MHEV Mile MQB NA NAC N 2 O NOx NSC OEM p.a. PHEV PHV PM PN Millions of barrels per day Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle km Modularer Querbaukasten, VW Platform North America NOx Adsorber Catalyst Nitrous Oxide Nitrogen oxides NOx Storage Catalyst Original equipment manufacturer Per annum Plug in hybrid electric vehicle Plug in hybrid vehicle Particulate matter Particle Number RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 Radiative Forcing of +2.6W/m² in year 2100 RDE Real Driving Emissions R&D Research and development ROW Rest of the world SCR Selective Catalytic Reduction SCRF SCR on Filter SCRT Catalyst system with DOC + DPF/CSF + SCR/ASC SULTAN SUstainabLe TrANsport Illustrative Scenarios Tool SunFuel BtL Diesel (Volkswagen) SUV Sports Utility Vehicle TBD To be determined TCO Total Cost of Ownership TWC Three-Way-Catalyst TWF Three-Way-Filter UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland USA United States of America 48