Weekly Report 11 March 2013 ENERGY STATISTICS 2013, WEEK 10

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 213, WEEK 1 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent oil rose slightly during last week, adding.2% in a rather flat market and snapping a string of three straight weekly losses. News of a series of explosions in northeast Nigeria helped support Brent. Investors have been liquidating long positions across the commodities complex. Natural Gas Natural gas prices remained high as systems were tight and weather forecasts showed returning weather. Calendar 214 contracts for natural gas fell by.7%. British spot gas prices shot to five-year highs at the beginning of last week following severe Norwegian supply outages. CO2 EU carbon dropped almost 9% as supply of more than 17 million permits from government auctions hit the market and a weak energy complex dented sentiment, traders said. Traders had been closely watching the German sale as two previous auctions held by the country were cancelled. Europe Distillates Gas oil and HFO 3.5% ARA rose by.4% and.8% respectively. The ICE gasoil crack was heading for the highest close since the end of February, in line with gains in Asia. Refineries in Asia and Europe are entering into a period of seasonal maintenance ahead of the summer, when demand peaks. Coal Coal prices fell as news pointed to weak demand in the short-term, while economic concerns and lower German power prices dragged the 214 swaps contract to a lifetime low. Traders are unwilling to buy much coal until they get confirmation that a strike at Colombian producer Cerrejon will conclude. Electricity Calendar power prices for delivery in 214 fell by 2% in Germany and by.3% in France. Fuel and carbon prices were lower with the exception of UK gas, which rose on system tightness and the forecast cold weather. Wind supply remains low, but solar peak time capacity should improve.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil German gas (GasPool) Belgian gas (Zee) Dutch gas (TTF) UK gas (NBP) Iberian gas European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 214 French power 214 Belgian power 214 Dutch power 214 UK power 214 Nordic power 214 Italian power 214 Iberian power 214 Overview of main energy products in last days 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week Prev. week WTI Brent +.19% in USD/tonne Gasoil Week Prev. week % in USD/tonne Brent crude price has fallen by.4% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 7% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 213 average to date (113.6 USD/bbl) the current price is 2.6% lower. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 16.3 USD/bbl, or 3.9% lower than the actual price, which suggests some downward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has risen by.1% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 3.9% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (94.5 USD/bbl) the current price is 2.7% lower. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 4.4% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 6.8% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (615.5 USD/bbl) the current price is 2.4% lower. Gas oil price has fallen by.3% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 1.3% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (968.3 USD/bbl) the current price is 4.5% lower. Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week 1 61 Prev. week % in USD/tonne Oil slightly up on explosion in Nigeria Brent oil rose slightly during last week, adding.2% in a rather flat market and snapping a string of three straight weekly losses. News of a series of explosions in northeast Nigeria helped support Brent. The dollar hit a 3 and half year high versus the yen and a three-month peak against the euro on U.S. jobs data. Money managers cut net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to March 5. Investors have been liquidating long positions across the commodities complex and adding to equity market holdings in the last two weeks. Global equities hit their highest level since June 28. Gas oil and HFO 3.5% ARA rose by.4% and.8% respectively. The ICE gasoil crack was heading for the highest close since the end of February, in line with gains in Asia where margins in ended the week at a four-session high. The Asian gasoil crack rose on expectations for increasing demand versus tighter supplies. Refineries in Asia, as in Europe, are entering into a period of seasonal maintenance ahead of the summer, when demand for some fuels typically peaks.

6 Focus German firms give details on expansion plan Gemany's leading four power grid operators published details of a new draft plan for upgrading and expanding the transmission system for electricity. The four companies operating high-voltage transmission lines across the country have to put into practice a multi billion euro plan to modernise the grid over the next decade, as Germany quits nuclear power in favour of renewable energy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is holding a summit with stakeholders in the energy shift on Thursday in Berlin where the financing of the network plan is one of the main topics. Here are some of the main facts about the plan. OPERATORS The four firms are Dutch-owned TenneT, which bought E.ON's grid, Amprion, which is the former grid of utility RWE, Hertz, the former grid of Vattenfall Europe and utility EnBW s TransnetBW. CONSTRUCTION DETAILS FOR TRANSPORT GRIDS In addition to Germany's existing high voltage power grid spanning 35, kilometres, some 1,7 km of alternating current lines and 2,1 km of new corridors for direct current lines will be needed over the next 1 years. The latter are a new phenomenon in Europe, based on technology delivering power point-to-point which is at test stage. Under the 213 scenario, four corridors running from north to south will be needed for an additional capacity of 12 GW. Also, some 4,4 km of exiting grids will have to be modernized. These measures will cost an estimated 21 billion euros. NEW PLAN FOR OFFSHORE WIND CONNECTIONS A novelty in 213 is the presentation of plans for the connection of new offshore wind power plants with onshore grids so as to help synchronise efforts. For this, 2,1 km of new cable links to the mainland are needed in the North and Baltic Seas, likely to cost an estimated 22 billion euros over the next 1 years. RISKS Big industrial consumers, utilities and network firms have warned of blackouts or regional power shortages unless the grid is upgraded in time. In addition to an inadequate grid, other risks include volatile renewables failing to deliver and the closure of conventional plants happening without timely replacements. There is also a need for adequate storage to avoid excessive renewable supply going unconsumed. But to date, there is virtually no storage to speak of. Source: Reuters

7 1/1/28 1/2/28 1/3/28 1/4/28 1/5/28 1/6/28 1/7/28 1/8/28 1/9/28 1/1/28 1/11/28 1/12/28 1/1/29 1/2/29 1/3/29 1/4/29 1/5/29 1/6/29 1/7/29 1/8/29 1/9/29 1/1/29 1/11/29 1/12/29 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/211 1/2/211 1/3/211 1/4/211 1/5/211 1/6/211 1/7/211 1/8/211 1/9/211 1/1/211 1/11/211 1/12/211 1/1/212 1/2/212 1/3/212 1/4/212 1/5/212 1/6/212 1/7/212 1/8/212 1/9/212 1/1/212 1/11/212 1/12/212 1/1/213 1/2/213 Oil Structural Price 17 1 EMP Structural price 1 11 EMP Structural price+speculation Oil 9 7 in USD/bbl Oil high on speculation rather than fundamentals The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs, shows a structural decrease of fundamentals, but speculation keeps prices high. Brent oil remains above 1 USD/bbl as hedge funds maintain their net long positions relatively high compared to 21. There is also a high correlation with financial indicators. Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/211 1/2/211 1/3/211 1/4/211 1/5/211 1/6/211 1/7/211 1/8/211 1/9/211 1/1/211 1/11/211 1/12/211 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 211 Week Prev. week Stock EIA crude range (24-212) Stock EIA 213 % Stock ARA HFO 211 Week Prev. week % Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-212) Stock ARA HFO 213 in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 Week Prev. week % Stock ARA Gasoline 211 Week Prev. week % Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-212) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-212) Stock ARA Gasoline 213 in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have risen by 2.4% during the last days, and are now 25.9% above the median (2.98 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have risen by 1.9% during the last days, and are now 16.7% above the median (216.5 mln bbl). ARA gas oil stocks have fallen by 12% during the last days, and are now 2.6% under the median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have risen by 21.8% during the last days, and are now 23.4% above the median (1989 mln bbl).

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of March 213. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 1.91 (.16) Other North Sea Russia Canada UK (offshore) 1. (.2) Other FSU/ East. Europe Azerbaijan.92 (.4) Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Mexico 2.92 (.4) U.S. ( States) Colombia Ecuador.. Other Central and S. America Venezuela 2.2. Brazil Argentina.75. Nigeria 2.5 (.5) Algeria 1.2 (.7) Libya Eq. Guinea.31 (.1) Gabon.24. Angola 1.7. Egypt.71 (.1) Sudan.9 (.2) Iraq Saudi Arabia 9. (.) UAE 2.7. Iran 2.6 (.75) Kuwait 2.6. Qatar.73 (.2) Yemen Oman.88 (.3) India Vietnam China Malaysia.6 (.4) Australia. +.4 Syria.15 (.6) Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East (.21) (.69) (.15) +.9 (.3) (.5)

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 Demand Supply Supply/Demand m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13 m-13 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13 m-13 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover ratio in days

11 Oil Correlations Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD Brent oil in USD/bbl DOW JONES EUR/USD Week Prev. week % DOW JONES Week Prev. week % oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week Prev. week % EIA CRUDE STOCK Week Prev. week % EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen by 1.4% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 2.7% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (1.3284) the current rate is 2.1% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by 9.9% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 2.9% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average ( ) the current index is 4% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 21.1% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 11.6% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (24249) the current level is 2.8% lower. EIA crude stock level has risen by 5.9% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 2.4% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average ( mln bbl) the current level is 3% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price Gas ZEE Cal+1 Gas TTF Cal+1 Gas NBP Cal+1 Gas GASPOOL Cal+1 Gas SPA Cal+1 in EUR/MWh Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA Gas GASPOOL DA Gas PEG DA in EUR/MWh Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 1 avg Prev.week avg 27.4 Gas TTF DA Week 1 avg Prev.week avg 26.8 Gas NBP DA Week 1 avg.54 Prev.week avg Gas GASPOOL DA Week 1 avg Prev.week avg Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 1 avg Prev.week avg % +2.7% +8.6% +.25% +2.98% Gas ZEEBRUGGE 214 Week Prev. week Gas TTF 214 Week Prev. week Gas NBP 214 Week Prev. week Gas SPAIN 214 Week Prev. week 28.7 Gas GASPOOL 214 Week Prev. week % -.11% -.69% +.46% +3.35% Futures down, spot up Natural gas prices remained high as systems were tight and weather forecasts showed returning weather. Zeebrugge and NBP Calendar 214 contracts for natural gas fell by.7% as Brent crude oil futures remained around 11 USD/barrel, while investors liquidated long positions across commodities and moved towards equities. British spot gas prices shot to five-year highs at the beginning of last week following severe Norwegian supply outages. Situation improved towards the end of the week, as supplies rose and even allowed for a short oversupply, providing some injections to storages ahead of colder weather predicted for the following days. Gas demand was about 8% above the seasonal norm at the end of last week. Despite a certain improvement in supplies, storage levels are low and LNG imports to Britain remain weak, posing risks for a price increase during this week. Britain's gas storage sites are filled to an average of 18%, down from over 21% at the beginning of the month and from over 86% in early January.

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent Brent3 214 Brent Brent GOL3 214 GOL GOL GOL GOL Brent3 214 Week Prev. week Brent Week Prev. week Brent Week Prev. week 8. Brent Week Prev. week 8.12 Brent Week Prev. week % +1.88% +1.86% +1.84% +2.22% in EUR/bbl LFO3 214 LFO LFO LFO LFO in EUR/tonne in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 73 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. GOL3 214 Week Prev. week GOL Week Prev. week GOL Week Prev. week 689. GOL Week Prev. week GOL Week Prev. week LFO3 214 Week Prev. week LFO Week Prev. week LFO Week Prev. week LFO Week Prev. week 442. LFO Week Prev. week % +1.14% +1.11% +1.6% +1.33% +.97% +.96% +.95% +.92% +1.4%

14 IBR PEG PSV TTF GER NBP ZEE BMG Natural Gas 27 December 21 Natural gas storage BAUMGARTEN, in % GERMANY, in % LEGEND in billion cubic meters empty capacity full capacity /9 2/9 2/12 2/ /9 2/12 2/15 2/15 2/15 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/21 2/24 2/24 2/27 2/27 3/2 IBERIAN, in % 2/21 2/24 2/27 3/2 PEG, in % 3/5 3/5 3/8 3/ /9 2/9 2/12 2/ /9 2/12 2/15 2/15 2/15 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/21 2/24 2/24 2/27 2/27 3/2 NBP, in % 2/21 2/24 2/27 3/2 PSV, in % 3/5 3/5 3/8 3/8 BAUMGARTEN PEG Week % Week % Prev. week 34.77% Prev. week 12.23% GERMANY PSV -1.57% -1.89% Week 1 38.% Week % Prev. week 4.81% Prev. week 48.13% IBERIAN TTF -2.81% -2.71% Week % Week % Prev. week 61.44% Prev. week 44.8% NBP ZEEBRUGGE -.1% -1.12% Week % Week % Prev. week 19.26% Prev. week 34.42% +.2% -2.97% /9 2/ /9 2/9 2/12 2/12 2/15 2/15 2/15 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/21 2/24 2/27 TTF, in % 2/21 2/21 2/24 2/24 2/27 2/27 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/8 3/8 3/ /9 2/9 2/12 2/ /9 2/12 2/12 2/15 2/15 2/15 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/18 2/21 2/21 2/24 2/24 2/27 2/27 3/2 ZEE, in % 2/24 2/24 2/27 2/27 3/2 3/2 3/5 3/5 3/5 3/8 3/8 3/8

15 in EUR/MWh 1/3/212 2/3/212 /3/212 9/4/212 19/4/212 29/4/212 9/5/212 19/5/212 29/5/212 8/6/212 18/6/212 28/6/212 8/7/212 18/7/212 28/7/212 7/8/212 17/8/212 27/8/212 6/9/212 16/9/212 26/9/212 6/1/212 16/1/212 26/1/212 5/11/212 15/11/212 25/11/212 5/12/212 15/12/212 25/12/212 4/1/213 14/1/213 24/1/213 3/2/213 Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal212 Week Prev. week % The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 213 is EUR/MWh, which is 6.7% higher that at the beginning of 213. During the last days the price has increased by 1.4%. Compared to the year to date average of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.2% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 7.99 EUR/MWh, which is 2.48 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and.87 EUR/MWh more than the year to date average of 7.12 EUR/MWh. The premium has increased by 9.94 EUR/MWh during the last days.

16 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Coal Cal+1, API N2 EUAs CO Week Prev. week % Week Prev. week % Coal Cal+1, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 4.5 CO in EUR/tonne Coal214 falls by almost 2% Coal prices fell as news pointed to weak demand in the short-term, while economic concerns and lower German power prices dragged the 214 swaps contract to a lifetime low. Traders are unwilling to buy much coal until they get confirmation that a month-long strike at Colombian producer Cerrejon will conclude. Despite the Colombian strike, supply of coal into Europe is plentiful, while demand for the fuel in China is slack. South African cargoes were not much changed at around 84 USD/tonne. Coal swaps prices for 214 delivery fell to a record low.. EUAs fell again on fresh permit supply EU carbon dropped almost 9% as supply of more permits from government auctions hit the market and a weak energy complex dented sentiment, traders said. EU governments auctioned a combined 17.4 million phase two and three permits last week including the sale of 5 million phase three units by Germany on Friday. The auction cleared at 4.15 EUR/tonne. Traders had been closely watching the German sale as two previous auctions held by the country were cancelled after bids failed to meet a reserve price, causing a rapid drop in prices.

17 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead Russia Baltic LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead 87.6 Russia Eastern 91. China Colombia 8.65 Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa 84.2 Richards Bay Month Ahead Kalimantan Indonesia 68.5 Newcastle Australia Newcastle Australia - Japan China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead 7 Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Russia Eastern 81 Physical Trades Futures

18 7,32 12,53 8,28 6,67 5, ,25 14,24 13,28 23,98 22,42 2,83 19, Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Natural Gas U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 CO2 Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Heavy Fuel Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Natural Gas Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 EUR/USD Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Gasoil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Coal Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

19 Power Power Europe last 3 months 75 7 Belgium 65 Netherlands 6 Germany 55 France Great Britain 45 Nordic Pool 4 Spain 35 Italy 1/12/212 14/12/212 18/12/212 22/12/212 26/12/212 /12/212 3/1/213 7/1/213 11/1/213 15/1/213 19/1/213 23/1/213 27/1/213 31/1/213 4/2/213 8/2/213 Austria Power prices eased, cold weather expected Calendar power prices for delivery in 214 fell by 2% in Germany and by.3% in France. Fuel and carbon prices were lower with the exception of UK gas, which rose on system tightness and the forecast cold weather. Forecasts for a return of wintry conditions pushed European spot power prices up on higher expectations for heating and lighting demand. French consumption will rise and nuclear capacity is weakened by unplanned outages while the German supply situation is more relaxed. Available German and Austrian thermal and hydro power plant capacity is likely to rise by 4.8% by March 15 due to increases in coal and gas-fired capacity. Wind supply remains low, but solar peak time capacity should improve towards the end of the week to exceed 15 GW in Germany.

20 Power Power Germany Power France EMP Structural Price Cal214 DE Cal214 bsld DE Cal215 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal214 FR Cal214 bsld FR Cal215 bsld 4 42 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 41.8 EUR/MWh, or 7.16% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.36% lower. DE Cal214 bsld The contract is.84 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP -1.95% Prev. week 41.9 Cal214 structural price, which DE Cal215 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure -2.2% Prev. week 41.8 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal214 Cal+2 bsld is currently.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week DE Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % -21.5% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 44.4 EUR/MWh, or 4.93% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.18% lower. FR Cal214 bsld The contract is.46 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP -.33% Prev. week Cal214 structural price, which FR Cal215 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure -2.24% Prev. week on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal214 Cal+2 bsld is currently.95 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week FR Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % % FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

21 Power Power Correlations DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Brent oil DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Coal Index DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld EUA

22 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal215 bsld 47 EMP Structural Price Cal EMP Structural Price Cal214 EMP Structural Price Cal NL Cal214 bsld NL Cal215 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal214 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 4.28% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 45.5 EUR/MWh, the current price is.63% lower. BE Cal214 bsld The contract is.2 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP -.42% Prev. week Cal214 structural price, which BE Cal215 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure -.44% Prev. week on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal214 Cal+2 bsld is currently.43 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week BE Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % -13.6% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 3.22% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is.2% lower. NL Cal214 bsld The contract is.27 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP +.5% Prev. week Cal214 structural price, which NL Cal215 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure -1.31% Prev. week 45.7 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal214 Cal+2 bsld is currently 2.43 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week NL Spot Weekly avg 53.9 Prev. week avg % -1.7% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Season+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Seas NP Cal215 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal214 NP Cal214 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh UK Season+1 bsld price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 2.12% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 57.8 EUR/MWh, the current price is.32% higher. UK Season+1 bsld The contract is 2.54 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP +.4% Prev. week UK Season+1 bsld structural EMP Structural Price Seas+1 price, which suggests some Week Prev. week % upward pressure on the forward UK Spot curve Weekly avg 6.52 Prev. week avg % UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 37.2 EUR/MWh, or.93% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is.23% higher. NP Cal214 bsld The contract is.12 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP -.26% Prev. week 37. Cal214 structural price, which NP Cal215 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure -1.65% Prev. week on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal214 Cal+2 bsld is currently 1.45 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week NP Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % +2.58% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

24 Power Power Italy Power Spain EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 8.14% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.51% lower. IT CalY+1 bsld The contract is.4 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP Prev. week Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week suggests some upward pressure Prev. week on the forward curve. IT Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % -.65% % IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 51.3 EUR/MWh, or 5.9% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.17% lower. The contract is 19.1 EUR/MWh SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Prev. week Cal214 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week Prev. week pressure on the forward curve. SP Spot Weekly avg 32.2 Prev. week avg % -1.5% -38.4% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

25 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep EMP Structural Price Cal+1 AT Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 HU Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal214 bsld Week Prev. week 41.9 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week Prev. week AT Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % -1.1% -21.5% HU Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week 47.1 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week Prev. week 48.2 HU Spot Weekly avg Prev. week avg % -1.54% -22.8% CZ Cal+1 bsld Week Prev. week 41.6 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week Prev. week 42.1 CZ Spot Weekly avg 37. Prev. week avg % -1.3% %

26 Power Current prices UK LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain Belgium France Holland Italy Germany Austria Nordic Czech Rep Hungary Historical range Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK 1/1/26 1/1/27 1/1/28 1/1/29 1/1/21 1/1/211 1/1/212 1/1/213

27 2/9/213 2/1/213 2/11/213 2/12/213 2/13/213 2/14/213 2/15/213 2/16/213 2/17/213 2/18/213 2/19/213 2/2/213 2/21/213 2/22/213 2/23/213 2/24/213 2/25/213 2/26/213 2/27/213 2/28/213 3/1/213 3/2/213 3/3/213 3/4/213 3/5/213 3/6/213 3/7/213 3/8/213 3/9/213 3/1/213 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Spark Spread Cal 212 DE Week Prev. week Spark Spread 212 FR Week Prev. week -9.7 Spark Spread 212 NL Week 1-6. Prev. week Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity. 5-5 Spark Spread Spot DE Week 1 avg Prev. week avg Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 212 DE -2 Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL

28 2/9/213 2/1/213 2/11/213 2/12/213 2/13/213 2/14/213 2/15/213 2/16/213 2/17/213 2/18/213 2/19/213 2/2/213 2/21/213 2/22/213 2/23/213 2/24/213 2/25/213 2/26/213 2/27/213 2/28/213 3/1/213 3/2/213 3/3/213 3/4/213 3/5/213 3/6/213 3/7/213 3/8/213 3/9/213 3/1/213 2/9/213 2/1/213 2/11/213 2/12/213 2/13/213 2/14/213 2/15/213 2/16/213 2/17/213 2/18/213 2/19/213 2/2/213 2/21/213 2/22/213 2/23/213 2/24/213 2/25/213 2/26/213 2/27/213 2/28/213 3/1/213 3/2/213 3/3/213 3/4/213 3/5/213 3/6/213 3/7/213 3/8/213 3/9/213 3/1/213 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads Dark Spread 212 DE Week Previous week Dark Spread 212 FR Week Previous week Dark Spread 212 NL Week Previous week Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week Previous week 7.81 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week Previous week 1.46 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week Previous week Premiums 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -1% -11% -12% -13% -14% -15% Week % Prev. week -5.95% BE/FR Week 1.81% Prev. week.9% BE/NL Week % Prev. week -4.95% DE/NL Week % Prev. week -11.4% DE/BE Week % Prev. week -6.79% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR DE/FR -1.52% -.8% -.87% -2.17% -1.43% Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL

29 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Power Netherlands Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Spain Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power France Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Italy Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Belgium Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Power Nord Pool Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

30 Currency Currency Rates 1.39 EUR/USD Week Prev. week % 1.6 GBP/USD Week Prev. week % EUR/USD 1.52 GBP/USD GBP/EUR Week Prev. week % 7.55 EUR/NOK Week Prev. week % GBP/EUR 7.4 EUR/NOK