ENERGY STATISTICS 2011, WEEK 21

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 2011, WEEK 21 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent crude oil rose 2.5% during the week, helped by the strength of gasoline, which rose in anticipation of higher demand this summer driving season. The weaker dollar also encouraged buying. However, gains were limited by weak U.S. sales and consumer spending data. Natural Gas Gas futures rose by 1.7% in Belgium (Zeebrugge), by around 2.2% in the Netherlands (TTF) and Germany (Bunde), and by 3.1% in U.K. (NBP). The prospect of Germany needing more gas and imported electricity in future because of its growing aversion to nuclear power pressured the curve. CO2 European carbon prices rose by 3% in the last trading day of the week 21. The move was triggered by a report citing the country's environment minister as saying Germany's seven oldest nuclear plants would remain offline indefinitely. Volume was unusually heavy on Friday. Europe Distillates Gas oil rose 2.1% and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA rose 4%. The market looks strong, with the arbitrage to the East open. Low Rhine water levels continue to hinder shipping. However, other key supporting factors, such as lower Russian exports, maintenance and buying interest are fading. Coal Coal looks bullish. Prices rose by around 1 USD/tonne on Friday on a call by German federal states to permanently 7 seven old nuclear reactors, which triggered spot buying. Demand in Asia is also expected to increase, as China faces one of the worst power shortages ever. Electricity Forward rose by 0.9%-1.4% in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, added almost 3% in U.K. Cal2012 eased in the Nordic Pool and Spain. Spot power eased in all markets except Italy. The market is now concerned with Germany s debate over nuclear future.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas 2012 (NBP) Belgian gas 2012 (ZEE) Dutch gas 2012 (TTF) German gas 2012 (BUD) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 2012 French power 2012 Belgian power 2012 Dutch power 2012 UK power 2012 Nordic power 2012 Italian power 2012 Iberian power 2012 Overview of main energy products in last 30 days 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week Previous week % WTI Brent in USD/tonne Gasoil Week Previous week % in USD/tonne Brent crude price has risen by 21.2% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 8.8% during the last 30 calendar days. Compared to the 2011 average to date (110.7 USD/bbl) the current price is 3.8% higher. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 89.9 USD/bbl, or 21.8% lower than the actual price, which suggests some downward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has risen by 10.2% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 11.4% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (98.9 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.9% higher. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 27.2% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 5.6% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (3.5 USD/bbl) the current price is 5.5% higher. Gas oil price has risen by 23.2% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 9.1% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (920.9 USD/bbl) the current price is 2% higher. Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week Previous week % in USD/tonne Crude rose 2.5% on gasoline demand and weak dollar Brent crude oil rose 2.5% during the week, helped by the strength of gasoline, which rose in anticipation of higher demand this summer driving season. The weaker dollar also encouraged buying. The euro rose against the dollar in its best week since late April. However, gains were limited by weak U.S. sales and consumer spending data. At a G-8 meeting in France world leaders agreed that the global economic recovery was becoming more "selfsustained", although high commodity prices are slowing down growth. Gas oil rose 2.1% and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA rose 4%. The market looks strong, with the arbitrage to the East open. Low Rhine water levels continue to hinder shipping. However, other key supporting factors, such as lower Russian exports, maintenance and buying interest are fading.

6 Focus German energy policy after Fukushima Germany, Europe's largest economy and power market, plans to revise its energy policy completely by July after the meltdown in several nuclear power plants in Fukushima in Japan. Following is a list of measures the country has taken on an adhoc basis, their effects and issues that remain unresolved. MEASURES TAKEN: -Suspended the 12-year lifetime extension of Germany's 17 nuclear power plants for three months -Shut down seven nuclear power plants for three months -Set deadline to pass new energy policy by the beginning of the summer break on July 8 EFFECTS: -Immediately after Fukushima, benchmark power prices rose 10% in Germany and gained another 4% to about 61 EUR/MWh after the closure of the seven power plants -Profits of large utilities were dented, with E.ON saying it cost 2 million euros and RWE calculating as much as 200 million euros in foregone profits. UNRESOLVED ISSUES: -Set a firm date for the shutdown of nuclear power plants or define the remaining lifespan differently e.g. by revisiting the subject in three-yearly intervals? -Keep the nuclear fuel tax or abolish it? -How can the government encourage the building of new capacity? -How can the government facilitate the building of new power lines, a prerequisite for new power plants? RECOMMENDATIONS: -The Federal Grid Agency, which oversees the power grids, warned that no more power plants should be shut down immediately to maintain the electricity grid stable -The Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt), controlled by the German environment ministry, found in a study that all German nuclear power plants could be shut down by An ethics commission commissioned by the government said it was possible to shut down all nuclear power plants by RWE Chief Executive Juergen Grossmann suggested to leave the power plants running until 2025 Source: Reuters

7 1/1/2008 2/1/2008 3/1/2008 4/1/2008 5/1/2008 6/1/2008 7/1/2008 8/1/2008 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 2/1/2009 3/1/2009 4/1/2009 5/1/2009 6/1/2009 7/1/2009 8/1/2009 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 Oil Structural Price EMP Structural price EMP Structural price+speculation Oil in USD/bbl Oil high despite lower fundamentals, fear and speculation is important The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural decrease of fundamentals. However, speculators and fears of supply disruptions in Arab world support prices above 100 USD/bbl. There is a high correlation with financial indicators (see previous page for the correlation with DOW JONES). Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2011 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 2011 Week Previous week Stock EIA crude range ( ) Stock EIA % Stock ARA HFO 2011 Week Previous week % Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range ( ) Stock ARA HFO 2011 in mln bbl in K tonnes Stock ARA GOL 2011 Week Previous week % Stock ARA Gasoline 2011 Week 21 5 Previous week % Stock ARA Gasoil range ( ) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range ( ) Stock ARA Gasoline in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have risen by 2.1% during the last 30 days, and are now 24% above the median ( mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have risen by 6.3% during the last 30 days, and are now 51.2% above the median (1891 mln bbl). ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 3.6% during the last 30 days, and are now 18.8% above the median (655 mln bbl). in K tonnes ARA gasoline stocks have fallen by 14.6% during the last 30 days, and are now 29.7% under the median (1983 mln bbl).

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of April The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 2.13 (0.12) Other North Sea Russia Canada UK (offshore) 1.28 (0.21) Other FSU/ East. Europe Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Mexico 2.82 (0.18) U.S. ( States) Colombia Ecuador 0.46 (0.02) Other Central and S. America 0.45 (0.02) Venezuela Brazil Argentina 0.78 (0.01) Nigeria Algeria 1.27 (0.08) Libya 1.34 (0.31) Eq. Guinea 0.31 (0.02) Gabon 0.22 (0.01) Angola 1.75 (0.23) Egypt Sudan 0.49 (0.03) Iraq Saudi Arabia UAE Iran 3,70-0,10 Kuwait Qatar Yemen 0.25 (0.01) Oman India Vietnam China Indonesia - - Malaysia Australia 0. (0.06) Syria 0.39 (0.02) Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East (0.35) (0.04) (0.01)

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories m-08 j-08 j-08 a-08 m-08 j-08 j-08 a-08 s-08 o-08 n-08 d-08 j-09 f-09 m-09 a-09 m-09 Demand Supply Supply/Demand a-08 s-08 o-08 n-08 d-08 j-09 f-09 m-09 a-09 m-09 j-09 j-09 a-09 s-09 o-09 n-09 d-09 j-10 f-10 m-10 a-10 m-10 j-10 j-10 a-10 j-09 j-09 a-09 s-09 o-09 n-09 d-09 j-10 f-10 m-10 a-10 m-10 j-10 j-10 a-10 s-10 o-10 n-10 d-10 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 s-10 o-10 n-10 d-10 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover ratio in days

11 Oil Correlations oil in USD/bbl oil in USD/bbl Brent Brent EUR/USD DOW JONES EUR/USD Week Previous week % DOW JONES Week Previous week % oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week Previous week % EIA CRUDE STOCK Week Previous week % EUR/USD exchange rate has risen by 6.8% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 4% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (1.3962) the current rate is 2.2% higher. Dow Jones index has risen by 7.5% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 2.9% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average ( ) the current index is 1.9% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 22.5% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 22.8% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (213695) the current level is 6.8% lower. EIA crude stock level has risen by 9.3% since the beginning of 2011, and increased by 2.1% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average ( mln bbl) the current level is 5.5% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price Gas TTF 2012 Gas NBP Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA Gas ZEE Gas BUD DA Gas PEG DA Natural gas goes bullish Gas futures rose by 1.7% in Belgium (Zeebrugge), by around 2.2% in the Netherlands (TTF) and Germany (Bunde), and by 3.1% in U.K. (NBP). The prospect of Germany needing more gas and imported electricity in future because of its growing aversion to nuclear power pressured the curve. In the spot market, weekly averages were overall stable, rising by only 0.5%-0.6% in the Netherlands and U.K. and falling by 0.6% in Germany. In U.K.. traders anticipate flat prices next week as a long chain of LNG tankers was expected to arrive in Britain over the coming weeks. Demand will also decrease due to milder weather. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 2012 Week Previous week Gas TTF 2012 Week Previous week Gas NBP 2012 Week Previous week Gas BUNDE 2012 Week Previous week Gas SPAIN 2012 Week Previous week % +2.14% +3.1% +2.28% +3.84% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 21 avg Prev.week avg Gas TTF DA Week 21 avg Prev.week avg Gas NBP DA Week 21 avg Prev.week avg Gas BUNDE DA Week 21 avg Prev.week avg Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 21 avg Prev.week avg % -0.03% +0.64% -0.61% +0.24%

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent Brent Brent Brent in EUR/bbl LFO LFO LFO LFO LFO in EUR/tonne GOL GOL GOL GOL GOL in EUR/tonne 303 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 3 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 703 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week 77. Brent Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week % +2.18% +2.18% +2.11% +2.23% +2.98% +2.98% +2.9% +2.84% +2.98% +4.09% +4.05% +4.05% +4.05% +4.16%

14 5/29/2010 6/8/2010 6/18/2010 6/28/2010 7/8/2010 7/18/2010 7/28/2010 8/7/2010 8/17/2010 8/27/2010 9/6/2010 9/16/2010 9/26/ /6/ /16/ /26/ /5/ /15/ /25/ /5/ /15/ /25/2010 1/4/2011 1/14/2011 1/24/2011 2/3/2011 2/13/2011 2/23/2011 3/5/2011 3/15/2011 3/25/2011 4/4/2011 4/14/2011 4/24/2011 Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price ZEE gas Cal Y+1 TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal2012 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal2012 Week Previous week % The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 2012 is EUR/MWh, which is 10.2% higher that at the beginning of During the last 30 days the price has decreased by 3.2%. Compared to the year to date average of EUR/MWh, the current price is 0.4% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 7.78 EUR/MWh, which is 0.89 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and 0.67 EUR/MWh less than the year to date average of 8.45 EUR/MWh. The premium has decreased by 12.5 EUR/MWh during the last 30 days.

15 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Index 140 Coal, API N2 Week Previous week % EUAs 18.0 CO2 Week Previous week % Coal, API N2, 00 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne CO in EUR/tonne Coal flat, looks bullish Coal closed at the same level as at the end of the week 20 on a late bullish impetus. Prices rose by around 1 USD/tonne on Friday on a call by German federal states to permanently shut seven old nuclear reactors, which triggered spot buying by German utilities and traders. Demand in Asia is also expected to increase, as China faces one of the worst power shortages ever. Chinese domestic coal prices rose to the highest level in more than two years last week as utilities stocked up ahead of the summer months. EUAs rose after weeks of decline European carbon prices rose by 3% in the last trading day of the week 21. The move was triggered by a report citing the country's environment minister as saying Germany's seven oldest nuclear plants would remain offline indefinitely. Traders said that the market has realised once again that the German nuclear issue is real, referring to the country's reassessment of its atomic energy policy. Volume was heavy on Friday with over 14 million units traded on the ICE ECX December 2011 contract, which is unusually high ahead of a week-end.

16 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone US Eastern Month Ahead Rotterdam Month Ahead Russia Baltic EEX Month Ahead Russia Eastern LEGEND Phisical trade Futures China Colombia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Richards Bay Month Ahead Kalimantan Indonesia Newcastle Australia Newcastle Australia - Japan China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Russia Eastern Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead Physical Trades Futures

17 Power Power Europe last 3 months Belgium Netherlands /28/2011 3/4/2011 3/8/2011 3/12/2011 3/16/2011 3/20/2011 3/24/2011 Futures rose, spot eased 3/28/2011 4/1/2011 4/5/2011 4/9/2011 4/13/2011 4/17/2011 4/21/2011 4/25/2011 4/29/2011 Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spain Italy Austria Hungary Czech Rep. Forward contracts rose by 0.9%-1.4% in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, added almost 3% in U.K. Cal2012 eased in the Nordic Pool and Spain, where it lost 0.5% and 1.4% respectively. Spot power eased in all markets except Italy. The market is now concerned with Germany s debate over nuclear future. On Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel came under pressure to legislate an end to nuclear power in the country, sending power prices higher. An ethics commission is expected to recommend on whether Germany should reopen or permanently shutter the seven reactors, and whether Germany should abandon nuclear power altogether and, if so, how soon.

18 Power Power Germany Power France EMP Structural Price 2012 DE Cal2012 bsld DE Cal2013 bsld EMP Structural Price 2012 FR Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2013 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at.55 EUR/MWh, or 12.15% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 6.74 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.11 EUR/MWh DE Cal2012 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week.90 Cal2012 structural price, which DE Cal2013 bsld suggests some downward Week Previous week.00 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 2012 The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.1 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.98 DE Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +1.1% +0.77% -7.18% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at.5 EUR/MWh, or 10.81% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of.17 EUR/MWh, the current price is 5.83 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.31 EUR/MWh FR Cal2012 bsld Week 21. higher than the estimated EMP Previous week.80 Cal2012 structural price, which FR Cal2013 bsld suggests some downward Week Previous week.85 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 2012 The Cal2013 bsld is currently 1.15 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.27 FR Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % -2.46% -0.14% -8.75% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

19 Power Power Correlations DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Brent oil DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Coal Index DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld EUA

20 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price 2012 BE Cal2013 bsld EMP Structural Price NL Cal2012 bsld NL Cal2013 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at.51 EUR/MWh, or 7.99% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.51 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.09 EUR/MWh BE Cal2012 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week.98 Cal2012 structural price, which BE Cal2013 bsld suggests some downward Week Previous week.92 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 2012 The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.43 BE Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +0.67% -0.01% -9.79% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at.75 EUR/MWh, or 9.81% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.99 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.19 EUR/MWh NL Cal2012 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week.95 Cal2012 structural price, which NL Cal2013 bsld suggests some downward Week Previous week.75 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price 2012 The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.75 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.85 NL Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +0.43% +1.22% -1.89% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

21 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price NP Cal2013 bsld EMP Structural Price NP Cal2012 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 10.67% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 5.33 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 1.11 EUR/MWh UK Cal2012 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week Cal2012 structural price, which EMP Structural Price 2012 suggests some downward Week Previous week pressure on the forward curve. UK Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +1.6% -0.69% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at.73 EUR/MWh, or 3.21% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.82 EUR/MWh higher. NP Cal2012 bsld The contract is 1.3 EUR/MWh Week lower than the estimated EMP Previous week Cal2012 structural price, which NP Cal2013 bsld Week suggests some upward pressure Previous week on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price 2012 Cal2013 bsld is currently 1.83 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week NP Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % -0.3% +0.36% -3.31% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

22 Power Power Italy Power Spain EMP Structural Price Y EMP Structural Price Y IT CalY+1 bsld SP Cal Y+1 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 5.06% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.53 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.54 EUR/MWh IT CalY+1 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week Cal2012 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week Previous week pressure on the forward curve. IT Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +1.19% +4.78% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 11.75% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.9 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.07 EUR/MWh SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week higher than the estimated EMP Previous week Cal2012 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week Previous week pressure on the forward curve. SP Spot Week 21 avg.40 Prev. week avg % +1.43% -1.37% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep. EMP Structural Price 2012 AT Cal2012 bsld 61 EMP Structural Price 2012 HU Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price 2012 CZ Cal2012 bsld AT Spot HU Spot CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh in EUR/ MWh in EUR/ MWh AT Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.90 EMP Structural Price 2012 Week Previous week.85 AT Spot Week 21 avg.37 Prev. week avg % +0.85% -6.71% HU Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.00 EMP Structural Price 2012 Week Previous week.03 HU Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +1.21% % CZ Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.90 EMP Structural Price 2012 Week Previous week.51 CZ Spot Week 21 avg Prev. week avg % +0.01% -6.31%

24 Power Current prices UK LEGEND Last quotation for Cal2012 bsld Last 20 days average Last quot. - Last 20 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain Belgium France Holland Italy Germany Austria Nordic Czech Rep Hungary Historical range /1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

25 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads Spark Spread Spot DE Week 21 avg 9.72 Prev. week avg Spark Spread Spot FR Week 21 avg 6.41 Prev. week avg Spark Spread Spot NL Week 21 avg 8.89 Prev. week avg Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 21 avg 3.54 Prev. week avg 7.55 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 21 avg 0.24 Prev. week avg 5.38 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 21 avg 2.71 Prev. week avg Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR Spark Spread Spot NL Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Spark Spread Cal 2012 DE Week Previous week 6.00 Spark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 7.66 Spark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 1.15 Clean Spark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week Spark Spread 2011 DE Spark Spread 2011 FR Spark Spread 2011 NL z Clean Spark Spread 2012 DE Clean Spark Spread 2012 FR Clean Spark Spread 2012 NL -2-3

26 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads Dark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 DE Dark Spread 2012 FR Dark Spread 2012 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity Clean Dark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week 7.35 Clean Dark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 6.43 Clean Dark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week 5. Clean Dark Spread 2012 DE Clean Dark Spread 2012 FR Premiums 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% DE/FR Week 21-1.% Previous week -1.51% BE/FR Week % Previous week -3.04% BE/NL Week % Previous week 0.05% DE/NL Week % Previous week 1.64% DE/BE Week % Previous week 1.% -0.06% -0.24% -0.46% -0.27% +0.19% 1 0 Clean Dark Spread 2012 NL -3% -4% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR -5% DE/FR

27 Currency Currency Rates 1. EUR/USD Week Previous week % 1.68 GBP/USD Week Previous week % EUR/USD 1.63 GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/NOK Week Week % Previous week % Previous week GBP/EUR EUR/NOK