Weekly Report 4 April 2013 ENERGY STATISTICS 2013, WEEK 13

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 213, WEEK 13 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent oil fell by more than 2.3% in the seven days to April 3, after data showed a sharp build in inventories in the US, world's top oil consumer, while prolonged pipeline outage in the Midwest also hurt prices. U.S. crude oil stocks rose 4.7 million barrels for the week ended March 29. Natural Gas Natural gas for delivery in 214 remained strong because cold weather and low stocks caused a tight system. Prices are expected to fall however, as warmer weather begins to move in and Norwegian supplies improve. Spot prices already fell on April 2-3, as temperatures rose in Northern Europe. CO2 EUAs for delivery in December hit a five-week high above 5 euros in intraday training on Wednesday on growing confidence that a plan to cut supply could pass a key vote later this month and as government allowance sales slowed temporarily. Europe Distillates Gas oil rose by.2%, while HFO 3.5% ARA fell by 1%. Gasoil discounts to traded futures strengthened following sharp drops in crude futures. Demand along the Rhine remained strong, supported by cold weather and a drop in commercial heating stocks in Germany. Coal Coal prices rose on April 3, after falling to a threeyear low at the end of last week. Utilities appeared to be taking advantage of the cheap prices to buy. Despite a colder-than-normal second half to the winter in Europe, demand for coal has failed to match supply. Electricity Calendar power prices for delivery in 214 fell by.3% in Belgium, by.8% in Germany and France. Spot prices were mixed with French spot prices down nearly 8%, pressured by higher wind power supplies and slightly milder temperatures, while German prompt prices were stable.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil German gas (GasPool) Belgian gas (Zee) Dutch gas (TTF) UK gas (NBP) Iberian gas European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 214 French power 214 Belgian power 214 Dutch power 214 UK power 214 Nordic power 214 Italian power 214 Iberian power 214 Overview of main energy products in last days 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil April 3 17,11 March 27 19,69 WTI Brent -2,35% in USD/tonne Gasoil April 3 912,75 March 27 91,75 +,21% in USD/tonne Brent crude price has fallen by 3,6% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 4% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 213 average to date (112,5 USD/bbl) the current price is 4,8% lower. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 111,3 USD/bbl, or 3,9% higher than the actual price,which suggests some upward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has risen by 2,9% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 4% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (94,5 USD/bbl) the current price is % lower. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 4,2% since the beginning of 213, and descended by,5% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (612,1 USD/bbl) the current price is 2% lower. Gas oil price has fallen by 1,5% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 1,3% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (953,6 USD/bbl) the current price is 4,3% lower. Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA April 3 599,63 March ,5% in USD/tonne Oil falls on stock buildup Brent oil fell by more than 2.3% in the seven days to April 3, after data showed a sharp build in inventories in the United States, world's top oil consumer, while the possibility of a prolonged pipeline outage in the Midwest also hurt prices. U.S. crude oil stocks rose 4.7 million barrels for the week ended March 29. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the ruptured Exxon Mobil Pegasus pipeline in the U.S. Midwest continued to weigh on crude prices. In the market news, shares were flat, cautiously marking time before key U.S. jobs data and news from central bank policy meetings in Japan and Europe later in the week. The euro was subdued in a market lacking conviction as investors await policy decisions by the European Central Bank. Gas oil rose by.2%, while HFO 3.5% ARA fell by 1%. Gasoil discounts to traded futures strengthened following sharp drops in crude futures. Demand along the Rhine remained strong, supported by cold weather and a drop in commercial heating stocks in Germany to around 35%. HFO 3.5% sulphur content traded at $599-$6.25 a tonne fob ARA, down from $61-$61. a tonne at the beginning of the week.

6 Focus Norway s oil sector faces strike threat Norway's vast oil sector could face disruption as employees at key supply bases plan to walk off the job on Monday, April 8, threatening supplies to offshore platforms. The nationwide strike for higher wages would affect Mongstad Base AS and Vestbase AS, which supply 2 major platforms that account for just over a third of the country's oil production. "The twenty platforms which receive their supplies from Mongstad Base AS and Vestbase AS will probably have to shut down operations within a few days after a strike has begun," trade union Industri Energi said on Thursday. "The platforms can not operate for longer than three days, if the vital supplies, which also include the food, are stopped," it said. Strikes have become common in Norway over the past year as workers are demanding a greater share of the country's rare economic success. Offshore workers last summer shut down large parts of the oil sector in demand for higher wages, forcing the government to intervene. Platforms that could be affected include some of Norway's top offshore installations, including Statoil's Troll B and C, Grane, Oseberg, Njord, and Aasgard A, and Shell's Draugen, Industri Energi said. However, Statoil said the strike would have no "immediate" impact on production or other major activities. Unions and employers will have one final attempt over the weekend to thrash out a wage deal through state mediators and if talks fail, 17, people across Norway would walk off the job on Monday. The strike could eventually grow to involve over 17,, or just under 1% of Norway's private sector workforce. However, an extended strike is unlikely as the government generally intervenes if the oil sector is at risk of major disruption. The sector accounts for around a fifth of Norway's $-billion gross domestic product. Besides supply bases, oil services firm Aker Solutions could lose close to 1,4 workers to the strike while Kvaerner, which builds heavy installations like platforms, is set to lose around 1, people. Although Norway's economy has outperformed Europe for the past several years and per capita GDP is over $1,, employers are reluctant to pay higher wages as workers already make 6% more than the European average. Norwegian wages rose by 4% last year even as productivity broadly stagnated and the central bank sees wages up at least 4% in each of the next three years. Source: Reuters

7 Oil Structural Price 17 1 EMP Structural price 1 11 EMP Structural price+speculation Oil 9 7 in USD/bbl Oil high on speculation rather than fundamentals The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs, shows a structural decrease of fundamentals, but speculation keeps prices high. Brent oil remains above 1 USD/bbl as hedge funds maintain their net long positions relatively high compared to 21. There is also a high correlation with financial indicators. Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 211 April 3 385,92 March , Stock EIA crude range (24-212) Stock EIA 213 in mln bbl % Stock ARA HFO 211 April March Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-212) Stock ARA HFO 213 in K tonnes +3,8% 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 April 3 8 March ,5% Stock ARA Gasoline 211 April 3 11 March ,25% Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-212) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-212) Stock ARA Gasoline 213 in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have risen by 1,2% during the last days, and are now 27,4% above the median (2,98 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have risen by 5% during the last days, and are now 23% above the median (216,5 mln bbl). ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 19% during the last days, and are now 23,4% above the median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have risen by 5% during the last days, and are now 21,3% above the median (1989 mln bbl).

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of March 213. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 1,91 -,9 Other North Sea,29 +,7 Russia 1, -,3 Canada 4,9 +,2 UK (offshore) 1,1 -,6 Other FSU/ East. Europe,25 +,2 Azerbaijan,93 -,7 Turkmenistan,25 +,2 Kazakhstan 1,59 -,2 Mexico 2,92 -,3 U.S. ( States) 11, +,52 Colombia 1, +,4 Ecuador,, Other Central and S. America,45 +,1 Venezuela 2,2, Brazil 2,56 +,6 Argentina,75 -,3 Nigeria 1,95 -,5 Algeria 1,27, Libya 1, +,7 Eq. Guinea,34, Gabon,25 +,1 Angola 1,75 -,5 Egypt,72, Sudan,11 -,34 Iraq 3,2 +,5 Saudi Arabia 9,, UAE 2,7, Iran 2,6 -,95 Kuwait 2,6 +,5 Qatar,73 -,12 Yemen,17 +,1 Oman,88 -,2 India,96 +,4 Vietnam,35 -,1 China 4,41 +,18 Malaysia,54 -,11 Australia,48 -,5 Syria,16 -,7 Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 36,88 41,6 18,31 13,32 8,77 4,16 4,75 2,36 1,26 +,77 +,38 +,69 -,7 +,8 -,9 +,7 -,32 -,8

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 j-9 f-9 m-9 a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 Demand Supply Supply/Demand m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13 m-13 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 n-12 d-12 j-13 f-13 m-13 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover ratio in days

11 Oil Correlations ,32 1,31 1,3 1,29 1,28 1,27 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD Brent oil in USD/bbl DOW JONES 14 1,26 EUR/USD April 3 1,2852 March 27 1,2781 +,55% DOW JONES April 3 145,35 March ,16 +,16% oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl SPECULATIVE NET POSITION EIA CRUDE STOCK April March % April 3 385,917 March ,661 +,85% EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen by 2,6% since the beginning of 213, and descended by 1,5% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (1,3191) the current rate is 2,6% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by 11% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 2,1% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (142) the current index is 3,8% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 25,6% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 3,8% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (2473) the current level is 1,9% higher. EIA crude stock level has risen by 7,2% since the beginning of 213, and increased by 1,2% during the last days. Compared to the 213 average (374,125 mln bbl) the current level is 3,2% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price 29,5 29, 28,5 28, 27,5 27, 26,5 26, 25,5 25, 24,5 24, Gas ZEE Cal+1 Gas TTF Cal+1 Gas NBP Cal+1 Gas GASPOOL Cal+1 Gas SPA Cal+1 in EUR/MWh Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA Gas GASPOOL DA Gas PEG DA in EUR/MWh Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA April 3 avg 35,4 Prev.week avg 37,51 Gas TTF DA April 3 avg 34,99 Prev.week avg 36,81 Gas NBP DA April 3 avg 36,27 Prev.week avg 4,61 Gas GASPOOL DA April 3 avg 33,98 Prev.week avg 35,76 Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA April 3 avg 37,62 Prev.week avg 35,47-6,58% -4,94% -1,68% -4,99% +6,5% Futures still strong, spot relieved Gas ZEEBRUGGE 214 April 3 27,55 March 27 27,79 Gas TTF 214 April 3 27,5 March 27 26,9 Gas NBP 214 April 3 27,87 March 27 27,94 Gas SPAIN 214 April 3 28,95 March 27 28,84 Gas GASPOOL 214 April 3 27,17 March 27 27, -,85% +,55% -,22% +,38% +,62% Natural gas for delivery in 214 remained strong because cold weather and low stocks caused a tight system. Prices are expected to fall however, as warmer weather begins to move in and Norwegian supplies improve. Spot prices already fell on April 2-3, as temperatures rose in Northern Europe. Analysts said prices were likely to fall more as Norwegian gas supplies would improve. Analysts said that the higher Norwegian exports to the UK are due to slightly lower Norwegian exports to the continent, but also slightly higher Norwegian production. Price reporting agency ICIS Heren said it plans to introduce new benchmarks for British and Dutch day-ahead gas prices after energy firms raised concerns the current system might be open to manipulation, which led to a regulatory probe. The new system would collate trade data and depend less on the subjective interpretation of the people who now collect prices. The changes come in response to an industry consultation launched by ICIS in February.

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent Brent3 214 Brent Brent in EUR/bbl LFO3 214 LFO LFO LFO LFO in EUR/tonne GOL3 214 GOL GOL GOL GOL in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 73 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. Brent3 214 April 3 78,21 March 27 78,87 Brent April 3 78,51 March 27 79,21 Brent April 3 78,67 March 27 79,4 Brent April 3 78, March 27 79,57 Brent April 3 77,61 March 27 78,22 GOL3 214 April 3 691,51 March ,86 GOL April 3 697,52 March ,7 GOL April 3 694,18 March 27 69,32 GOL April 3 694,4 March 27 69,14 GOL April 3 6,3 March ,74 LFO3 214 April 3 436,59 March ,44 LFO April 3 437,43 March ,59 LFO April 3 437, March ,14 LFO April 3 437,98 March ,66 LFO April 3 434, March ,6 -,84% -,88% -,91% -,96% -,77% +,52% +,55% +,55% +,56% +,48% -1,54% -1,6% -1,64% -1,72% -1,41%

14 Natural Gas 27 December 21 Natural gas storage BAUMGARTEN, in % GERMANY, in % LEGEND in billion cubic meters empty capacity filled capacity NBP IBR TTF BAUMGARTEN PEG April 3 22,34% April 3 3,58% March 27 25,74% March 27 4,8% GERMANY PSV April 3 2,61% April 3 39,76% March 27 24,11% March 27 38,79% IBERIAN TTF April 3 62,81% April 3 28,51% +1,25% March 27 61,56% March 27 32,21% NBP ZEEBRUGGE April 3 6,29% April 3 2,16% -1,91% March 27 8,2% March 27 21,98% ZEE PEG GER BMG PSV -3,4% -,5% -3,5% +,96% -3,7% -1,82% IBERIAN, in % PEG, in % TTF, in % NBP, in % PSV, in % ZEE, in %

15 in EUR/MWh Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal212 April 3 34,3 March 27 34,8 -,14% The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 213 is 34,3 EUR/MWh, which is 5% higher that at the beginning of 213. During the last days the price has increased by,4%. Compared to the year to date average of 33,92 EUR/MWh, the current price is,3% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 6,98 EUR/MWh, which is 1,47 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and,24 EUR/MWh less than the year to date average of 7,21 EUR/MWh. The premium has decreased by 1,43 EUR/MWh during the last days.

16 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Coal Cal+1, API N2 EUAs CO April 3 92, March 27 93,6-1,17% 6, 5,5 April 3 4,92 March 27 4,95 -,6% 94 5, Coal Cal+1, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 4,5 4, CO ,5 3, in EUR/tonne Coal214 volatile Coal prices rose on April 3, after falling to a threeyear low at the end of last week. Utilities appeared to be taking advantage of the cheap prices to buy. Coal of Colombian, Russian and U.S. origin for April delivery into European ports Amsterdam, Antwerp and Rotterdam recovered from $76. registered on Tuesday, a three-year low in the contract. Despite a colder-than-normal second half to the winter in Europe, demand for coal has failed to match supply, heightening expectations that some producers will need to cut back production later in the year. EUAs reach 5 euros in intraday trading EUAs for delivery in December hit a five-week high above 5 euros in intraday training on Wednesday on growing confidence that a plan to cut supply could pass a key vote later this month and as government allowance sales slowed temporarily. Traders said a gap in government sales caused by public holidays had added to bullish sentiment that MEPs would back the EU's plan to delay the sale of 9 million permits in an April 16 vote. The EU and Germany are due to sell 7.6 million EUAs this week, with a further million EUAs expected next week..

17 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead,1 Russia Baltic 77,8 LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead 79,95 Russia Eastern 9,2 China 113,87 Colombia 73, Richard Bay South Africa,31 Maputo South Africa 79,49 Richards Bay Month Ahead 81,9 Kalimantan Indonesia 68,5 Newcastle Australia 87, Newcastle Australia - Japan 115, China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa 84 9 Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan 82 Richards Bay Month Ahead Newcastle Australia 78 EEX Month Ahead 7 Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Russia Eastern 72 Physical Trades Futures

18 1,25 12,53 15,25 1, 1,27 1,34 1,32 1, 11,2 11, 122,3 128,1 112,4 98,8 94,2 111,9 112,5 1,29 1,28 1,26 1,25 1,43 1,45 18,9 25,6 24,1 27,2 25,7 25,8 27,1 27,8 28,1 28,3 28,6 28,9 Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast ,9 72,3 94,8 111,8 17,4 Oil 97,8 111,1 111, 11,7 11,4 11,2 19, , 391, 484, Heavy Fuel Oil 617,8 615, 553, 575,5 634,8 64,4 645,9 651,6 657, ,5 616,8 762,5 99,8 Gasoil 924, 848,5 927, 967,7 977,1 986,3 995,7 14, ,5 25,8 24,3 Natural Gas U. K. 26,9 26,4 26,5 27,7 29, 29,5,,6 113,1 113,7 31, ,3 Natural Gas Germany Coal Jan-21 Jul-21 14,24 13,28 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 CO2 7,32 8,28 6,67 5,57 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul ,98 22,42 2,83 Jan-215 Jul ,27 1, 1,45 1,4 1,35 1, 1,25 1,2 1,15 EUR/USD Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

19 Power Power Europe last 3 months Belgium Netherlands Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spain Italy Austria Power prices set to ease on warmer weather Calendar power prices for delivery in 214 fell by.3% in Belgium, by.8% in Germany and France and by 1.4% in the Netherlands. Spot prices were mixed with French spot prices down nearly 8%, pressured by higher wind power supplies and slightly milder temperatures, while German prompt prices were stable. France has experienced below-average temperatures in the last several weeks, but weather is set to improve. Power grid RTE said it expected temperatures to remain below normal in the coming week although they would rise slightly by the middle of next week. French consumption will rise and nuclear capacity is weakened by unplanned outages while the German supply situation is more relaxed. Wind supply remains low, but solar peak time capacity should improve towards the end of the week.

20 Power Power Germany Power France EMP Structural Price Cal EMP Structural Price Cal DE Cal214 bsld 44 FR Cal214 bsld 4 4 DE Cal215 bsld FR Cal215 bsld in EUR/MWh 42 in EUR/MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 41,4 EUR/MWh, or 6,44% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 42,12 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,71% lower. DE Cal214 bsld The contract is,63 EUR/MWh April 3 41,4 higher than the estimated EMP -,83% March 27 41,75 Cal214 structural price, which DE Cal215 bsld suggests some downward April 3 41,5 March 27 41, -,6% pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal214 The Cal+2 bsld is currently,35 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld April 3 4,77 March 27 4,65 DE Spot Weekly avg 39,66 March 27 avg 32,94 +,27% +2,4% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 44,75 EUR/MWh, or 4,18% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 45,13 EUR/MWh, the current price is,85% lower. FR Cal214 bsld The contract is,24 EUR/MWh April 3 44,75 higher than the estimated EMP -,77% March 27 45,1 Cal214 structural price, which FR Cal215 bsld suggests some downward April 3 44,4 March 27 44,7 -,67% pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal214 The Cal+2 bsld is currently,35 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld April 3 44,51 March 27 44,19 FR Spot Weekly avg 66,25 March 27 avg 59, +,71% +11,34% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

21 Power Power Correlations DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Brent oil DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Coal Index 46 27, , ,8 26,6 26,4 26, ,8 25,6 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld EUA 37 25,4 37

22 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal215 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal214 EMP Structural Price Cal EMP Structural Price Cal214 NL Cal214 bsld NL Cal215 bsld 42 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 47,3 EUR/MWh, or 2,6% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 45,32 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,78% higher. BE Cal214 bsld The contract is 1,11 EUR/MWh April 3 47,3 higher than the estimated EMP -,27% March 27 47,16 Cal214 structural price, which BE Cal215 bsld suggests some downward April 3 45,1 March 27 45, -,44% pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal214 The Cal+2 bsld is currently 1,93 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld April 3 45,92 March 27 45,8 BE Spot Weekly avg 62,52 March 27 avg 65,45 +1,86% -4,47% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 49,5 EUR/MWh, or 1,98% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 47,99 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,15% higher. NL Cal214 bsld The contract is,97 EUR/MWh April 3 49, higher than the estimated EMP -1,39% March 27,2 Cal214 structural price, which NL Cal215 bsld suggests some downward April 3 46, March 27 46, -1,7% pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal214 The Cal+2 bsld is currently 3,5 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld April 3 48,53 March 27 47,77 NL Spot Weekly avg 7,14 March 27 avg 63,1 +1,57% +11,14% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Season+1 bsld 37 NP Cal215 bsld EMP Structural Price Seas EMP Structural Price Cal214 NP Cal214 bsld in EUR/MWh 32 in EUR/MWh UK Season+1 bsld price closed the week at 66,8 EUR/MWh, or 12,77% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 58,49 EUR/MWh, the current price is 14,21% higher. UK Season+1 bsld The contract is 7,94 EUR/MWh April 3 66, lower than the estimated EMP +9,76% March 27 6,86 UK Season+1 bsld structural EMP Structural Price Seas+1 price, which suggests some April 3 59,98 March 27 58,41 +2,67% upward pressure on the forward UK Spot curve Weekly avg 74,74 March 27 avg 78,84-5,2% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 38,45 EUR/MWh, or 2,4% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 37,26 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,21% higher. NP Cal214 bsld The contract is 1,6 EUR/MWh April 3 38,45 higher than the estimated EMP -,77% March 27 38,75 Cal214 structural price, which NP Cal215 bsld suggests some downward April 3 36,33 March 27 36,25 +,22% pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal214 The Cal+2 bsld is currently 2,12 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld April 3 37,39 March 27 37,3 NP Spot Weekly avg 49,62 March 27 avg 46,48 +,99% +6,76% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

24 Power Power Italy Power Spain EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 63,8 EUR/MWh, or 9,18% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 65,55 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,67% lower. The contract is 11,56 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal213 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve IT CalY+1 bsld April 3 63, March 27 64,25 EMP Structural Price Y+1 April 3 63,5 March 27 63,46 IT Spot Weekly avg 75,36 March 27 avg 63,43 -,7% -,65% +18,8% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal214 price closed the week at 51,5 EUR/MWh, or 4,72% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 213 average to date of 52,37 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,66% lower. The contract is,78 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal214 structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve SP Cal Y+1 bsld April 3 51, March 27 51,6 EMP Structural Price Y+1 April 3,87 March 27,69 SP Spot Weekly avg 2,72 March 27 avg 28,87 -,19% +,35% -28,24% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

25 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep EMP Structural Price Cal+1 AT Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh EMP Structural Price Cal+1 HU Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh EMP Structural Price Cal+1 CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal214 bsld April 3 41,4 March 27 41,75 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 April 3 4,71 March 27 4,65 AT Spot Weekly avg 39,66 March 27 avg 32,94 -,83% +,15% +2,4% HU Cal+1 bsld April 3 46,4 March 27 46,35 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 April 3 45, March 27 45,52 HU Spot Weekly avg 36,79 March 27 avg 37,99 +,1% -,4% -3,14% CZ Cal+1 bsld April 3 41,18 March 27 4, EMP Structural Price Cal+1 April 3 4,34 March 27 4,19 CZ Spot Weekly avg 41,2 March 27 avg 33,28 +1,67% +,37% +23,27%

26 Power Current prices UK 66, 6,93 5,87 LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain 51, 51,18,32 Belgium 47,3 46,28,75 France 44,75 44,51,24 Holland 49, 49,6,44 Italy 63, 63,62,18 Germany 41,4 41,4,36 Austria 41,4 41,4,36 Nordic 38,45 37,82,64 Czech Rep. 41,18 4,58,6 Hungary 46,4 45,82,58 Historical range 12 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

27 Power Statistics Spark Spreads, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, -12, -14, -16, Spark Spread Cal 212 DE April 3-12,9 March 27-12,33 Spark Spread 212 FR April 3-1,39 March 27-1,22 Spark Spread 212 NL April 3-4,6 March 27-3, Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity Spark Spread Spot DE April 3 avg -,28 March 27 avg -37, Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week 9-14,88 Previous week -14,33 Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week 9-12,37 Previous week -12,22 Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week 9-6,58 Previous week -5, Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL -6-16

28 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads Dark Spread 212 DE Week 9 12,73 Previous week 12,78 Dark Spread 212 FR Week 9 16,8 Previous week 16,13 Dark Spread 212 NL Week 9 2,83 Previous week 21,23 Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week 9 8,5 Previous week 8,5 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week 9 11,4 Previous week 11,4 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week 9 16,15 Previous week 16, Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Premiums 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% -1% % 1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -1% -11% -12% -13% -14% -15% -16% -17% -18% -19% April 3-7,49% March 27-7,43% BE/FR April 3 5,9% March 27 4,57% BE/NL April 3-4,99% March 27-6,6% DE/NL April 3-16,36% March 27-16,83% DE/BE April 3-11,97% March 27-11,47% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR DE/FR -,5% +,52% +1,6% +,46% -,49%

29 44,2 43,75 47,34 46,98 42, 39, 37,55 39,88 39, 44, 46, 41,37 59,76 57,14 62,75 52, 58,94 59,23 68,32 71,4 73,71 76,42 79,1 48,75 52, 54, 56,1 54,9 55,75,,1 46,7,,2 49,61 49,1 48,42 52, 52,78 51,85 53,15 52, 56,6 51,6 48,75 44,25,65,32 49,98 49,65 49,31 54,5 58,36 6,59 62, 69,25 7,48 68,6 65,3 73, 7,15 7,25 67,24 86,63 75,35 76,11 76,85 77,61 78,36 52, 53,7 53, 56,63 52,25,45, 54,66 55,11 55,55 56, 56,44 38,13 37,24 36,37 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast Power Germany Power France ,56 53,34 54,82 Power Belgium 55,77 51,33 49,19 48,2 52,47 52,52 52,57 52,62 52, Power Netherlands Power U. K Power Nord Pool Power Spain Power Italy Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

30 Currency Currency Rates 1,33 EUR/USD April 3 1,2852 March 27 1,2781 +,55% 1,55 GBP/USD April 3 1,5128 March 27 1,5133 -,3% 1,32 1,54 1,31 1,53 1, 1,52 1,29 EUR/USD 1,51 GBP/USD 1,28 1, 1,27 1,49 1,26 1,48 1,25 1,47 1,21 1,2 1,19 1,18 1,17 1,16 1,15 1,14 1,13 GBP/EUR EUR/NOK April 3 1,1771 -,58% 7,7 April 3 7,4465 -,34% March 27 1,184 March 27 7,472 GBP/EUR 7,65 7,6 7,55 7, 7,45 7,4 7,35 EUR/NOK 1,12 7,