BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS. August 2013: Economic Sentiment rises further in both the euro area and the EU

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS. August 2013: Economic Sentiment rises further in both the euro area and the EU"

Transcription

1 August 2013 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS 120 Graph 1: Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.) long-term av erage ( ) = 100 Euro Area (EA) European Union (EU) source: European Commission services August 2013: Economic Sentiment rises further in both the euro area and the EU In August the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) increased sharply by 2.7 points in the euro area (to 95.2) and 3.1 points in the EU (to 98.1). The indicator rose for the fourth successive month in both regions, marking a twoyear high in the EU. Euro area developments In the euro area, the strong increase resulted from pronounced improvements in confidence among consumers and managers in industry, services and retail trade. Only in the construction sector confidence weakened. Economic sentiment improved in fourteen euro area countries and in all of its five largest economies, i.e. the Netherlands (+5.2), Germany (+3.3), Italy (+2.0), France (+1.6) and Spain (+0.8). Industry confidence increased significantly (+2.7) fuelled by managers' much more positive assessment of the current level of overall order books and production expectations. Their assessment of the stocks of finished products improved too. Also companies' assessments of past production and the current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, were much more favourable. Services confidence saw a significant increase as well (+2.5), resulting from a sharp rise in managers' assessment of the past business situation and important improvements concerning past demand and demand expectations. Consumer confidence continued its upward trend that started in December Its marked improvement (+1.8) was mainly thanks to more optimistic views on the future general economic situation. Consumers' opinions on the future financial situation of their households and on their savings over the next 12 months also brightened, while their unemployment expectations remained unchanged. Also retail trade confidence increased substantially (+3.3). Managers were particularly more confident about the future business situation. Also their assessments of the present business situation and their volume of stocks improved markedly. By contrast, the construction sector registered a decrease in confidence (-0.9), resulting from managers' worsened assessment of both order books and employment expectations. Financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) increased sharply by 3.5 points, driven by a striking increase in managers' demand expectations. While managers' assessment of past demand improved slightly, their views on the past business situation deteriorated somewhat. Employment plans were revised upwards in industry, services and retail trade, while decreasing in construction. Selling price expectations remained broadly stable in industry, services and retail trade while increasing in construction. Consumers' price expectations for the next 12 months increased as well. EU developments In the wider EU, the improvement in sentiment was even slightly more pronounced than in the euro area (+3.1). On a sector basis, the increases in services, retail trade and consumer confidence were stronger than in the euro area and, in contrast to the euro area, construction confidence improved. On a country basis, the main reason for the sharper increase was markedly improving confidence in the largest non-euro area EU economy, the UK (+4.3). The EU financial services confidence indicator improved at a lower pace than in the euro area (+1.6). Employment plans in the EU were broadly in line with the euro area, except for construction where plans were revised upwards in line with the other sectors. While broadly stable in industry and retail trade as in the euro area, selling price expectations increased in the services sector. Economic and Financial Affairs

2 Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Graph 2: Industrial confidence indicator 20 Graph 3: Services confidence indicator EA long-term av erage EA long-term av erage EA EA EU -30 EU Graph 4: Consumer confidence indicator EA EU Graph 5: Retail trade confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term av erage EA long-term av erage Graph 6: Construction confidence indicator Graph 7: Financial services confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term av erage EA av erage EA EU Graph 8: Price expectations in the EA 20 Graph 9: Employment and unemployment in the EA Industry Consumers Construction Industry Services Consumers (1) (1) Unemployment expectations (right-hand scale) Balances, % (inverted scale)

3 TABLE 1*: Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 3 Since 1990 (*) EU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) EA 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) BE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI BG 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CZ 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI EE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI IE 1. Industry : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2. Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : = 6. ESI : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : EL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI ES 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI HR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Following the accession of Croatia to the EU, the country results are included in the results for the EU aggregate as from July 2013.

4 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 4 IT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CY 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LV 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LU 1. Industry Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI HU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI MT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI NL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI AT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI RO 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI

5 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 5 SK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI UK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI In the tables: (s.a.) = seasonally adjusted, (n) = not seasonally adjusted, : = not available. (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. The economic sentiment indicator is composed of the industrial confidence indicator (40%), the service confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%), and the retail trade confidence indicator (5%). Its long term average ( ) equals 100. The reported ESI average is based on this standardisation sample. All confidence indicators are balances. Following the last annual update in January 2013, the country weights have been updated once more in July 2013, to reflect the accession of Croatia on 1 July.

6 TABLE 2: Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 6 INDUSTRIAL EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 5) BE BG Component of the CZ industrial confidence DK indicator DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ORDER BOOKS EU (Question 2) EA BE Component of the BG industrial confidence CZ indicator DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

7 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 7 STOCKS OF EU FINISHED EA PRODUCTS (b) BE (Question 4) BG CZ Component of the DK industrial confidence DE indicator EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU TREND OBSERVED EA IN RECENT MONTHS BE (Question 1) BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EXPORT EU ORDER BOOKS EA (Question 3) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

8 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 8 EMPLOYMENT EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 7) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK SELLING PRICE EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 6) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. (a) The indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) of the questions on production expectations, order-books and stocks (the last with inverted sign). (b) Highest figure is considered as a minimum, lowest figure is considered as a maximum.

9 TABLE 3: Monthly survey of services (s.a.) 9 SERVICES EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ASSESSMENT EU OF BUSINESS EA SITUATION BE OVER THE PAST BG MONTHS CZ (Question 1) DK DE Component of the EE services confidence indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EVOLUTION EU OF DEMAND EA OVER THE PAST BE MONTHS BG (Question 2) CZ DK Component of the DE services confidence EE indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK