Weekly Report 15 October 2012 ENERGY STATISTICS 2012, WEEK 42

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 212, WEEK 42 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Crude rose by 2.3% as turmoil in the Middle East intensified, while concerns about North Sea supplies persisted and Europe continued to struggle with its debt crisis. Oil markets have been balancing expectations of weaker demand against the risk of output disruptions from the Middle East. Natural Gas Natural gas prices for Calendar213 contract were steady last week, falling slightly in Belgium and rising a little in the Netherlands and United Kingdom. Prompt gas prices rose overall last week, but fell on Friday, as warmer weather weighed on demand and Norway boosted deliveries. CO2 European carbon prices were steady last week after a sale for nearly half of the 5 million permits expected by the market was postponed. Traders said there is a little bit of demand, mainly utility hedging, but carbon is struggling to go in either direction. Europe Distillates Gas oil and HFO 3.5% ARA rose by 1.2% and.6% respectively. Gasoil barge differentials remained at elevated levels, reflecting tightness in the prompt markets. Some gasoil had been shipped from Asia and the Middle East, whilst Mediterranean cargoes have moved into the northwest Europe market. Coal Prompt physical coal prices fell under 95 USD/tonne on ample supplies in Europe. There is a substantial amount of Q4 South African coal in the hands of traders which they are now offering and this is helping to weaken prices. India's imports of coal in have been strong all year despite the current lull. Electricity Cal213 contracts fell on forecasts for mild winter weather and a bearish power capacity outlook for Germany. In the spot market, power prices were slightly bullish at the end of last week, on reduced German wind and solar power supplies and a gloomy French supply picture.

4 Overview of main energy products in last days 6,% 4,% 2,%,% -2,% -4,% Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas (NBP) Dutch gas (TTF) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 213 French power 213 Belgian power 213 Dutch power 213 UK power 213 Nordic power 213 Italian power 213-6,% -8,%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week ,62 Previous week 112,2 WTI +2,32% Brent in USD/tonne Gasoil Week Previous week 989,5 +1,16% in USD/tonne Brent crude price has risen by 6,7% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 1,7% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 212 average to date (112,3 USD/bbl) the current price is 2,1% higher. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 115,7 USD/bbl, or 1% higher than the actual price,which suggests some upward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has fallen by 7,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 7,2% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (96 USD/bbl) the current price is 4,3% lower. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by,8% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 6,7% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (642,6 USD/bbl) the current price is 3,5% lower. Gas oil price has risen by 8,3% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 1,2% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (956,6 USD/bbl) the current price is 4,6% higher Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week Previous week 616,5 +,56% in USD/tonne Oil rose on tensions in Middle East Crude oil rose by 2.3% last week as turmoil in the Middle East, especially tensions on the border between Syria and Turkey, intensified, while concerns about North Sea oil supplies persisted and Europe continued to struggle with its debt crisis. However, oil prices fell on the last trading day of the week after a report by the International Energy Agency s forecast higher supplies and declining oil consumption. Overall, oil markets have been balancing expectations of weaker fuel demand due to the struggling global economy against the risk of output disruptions from the Middle East in recent weeks. Following Middle East tensions, speculation in the market increased, money managers raising their net long positions to top 196, during the week. Gas oil and HFO 3.5% ARA rose by 1.2% and.6% respectively. Gasoil barge differentials remained at elevated levels, reflecting continued tightness in the prompt markets. Some gasoil had been shipped from Asia and the Middle East, whilst Mediterranean cargoes have moved into the northwest Europe market.

6 Focus Are oil prices going to ease on higher output and slower economy? (IEA) The world could see a gradual easing of oil prices over the next five years due to sluggish economic growth and rising energy efficiency and as production increases steeply in Iraq and North America, the International Energy Agency said last Friday. London Brent crude prices fell after the IEA report, trading down more than a dollar a barrel, below $115. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, cut its global oil demand growth projection for by, barrels per day compared to its previous report in December 211. As a result, the pressure on OPEC to produce more oil will ease dramatically and the cartel will have to cut production to no more than 31 million bpd until 217 to balance global demand. It has been producing between 31 and 32 million bpd this year. "Expectations of economic growth through the forecast period have been reduced amid persistent OECD debt concerns, especially in the euro zone. Even China, the main engine of demand growth in the last decade, is showing signs of slowing down. The demand outlook looks more subdued, while the transformative power of non conventional oil production technologies applied in shale and tight formations in North America exceeds earlier expectations," the IEA said. In its previous report in December 211, the IEA said it expected global oil demand to rise by around 8% between 21 and 216 but said it saw markets becoming less tight than in previous years. Ten months later, it paints an even more comfortable picture, saying oil demand will rise by less than 7% between this year and 217, when it will reach 95.7 million bpd. Last year, the IEA said U.S. production of light tight oil from shale formations was "a game-changer in the making". This year it says the impact of the new oil streams is increasing. Global production capacity is expected to increase by 9.3 million bpd by 217 to 12 million bpd, effectively exceeding demand by over 6%. Around 2% of liquids growth comes from Iraqi capacity and 4% from North American oil sands or light tight oil production. OPEC will also spend heavily on boosting its spare capacity, which is projected to more than double to 5-7 million bpd, a level unseen since before the oil price rally. OPEC's spare capacity is seen as the main cushion against supply disruptions and worries about dwindling capacity have been one of the main reasons behind recent oil price spikes. Despite the IEA's benign outlook, the agency said there was exceptional uncertainty about the global economy and heightened regional geopolitical risks. "Last year s string of supply disruptions, in Syria, Yemen, Sudan, the North Sea, Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico, illustrated the possibility of a perfect storm of coincidental disruptions in many oil provinces," it said. Oil prices approached $1 per barrel earlier this year, not far from their 28 peaks of $147 per barrel, due to worries over supply disruptions from Iran. "The situation remains highly unpredictable and the sustainability of the sanctions over the longer term is evidently untested," the IEA said. It estimated Iranian September oil exports fell to 86, bpd versus around 2.2 million bpd in 211. The slump in exports has led to a steep fall in revenues and clashes on the streets of Tehran as the local currency collapsed. Source: Reuters

7 Oil Structural Price EMP Structural price 9 EMP Structural price+speculation Oil in USD/bbl Oil high on speculation rather than fundamentals The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural decrease of fundamentals, but speculation keeps prices high. Brent oil price rose above 11 USD/bbl as hedge funds and other large investors increased their net long positions. There is also a high correlation with financial indicators. Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 211 Week ,37 Previous week 366,37 Stock EIA crude range (24-211) Stock EIA 212 % Stock ARA HFO 211 Week Previous week ,92% Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-211) Stock ARA HFO in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 Week Previous week 61 +4,32% Stock ARA Gasoline 211 Week Previous week ,44% Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-211) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-211) Stock ARA Gasoline in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have fallen by,3% during the last days, and are now 2,9% above the median (2,98 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have fallen by 1,2% during the last days, and are now 3,2% above the median (216,5 mln b ARA gas oil stocks have fallen by 13,6% during the last days, and are now 4,3% under the median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have risen by 9,6% during the last days, and are now 9,4% under the median (1989 mln bbl).

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of August 212. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 1,9 +,1 Other North Sea,23 -,3 Russia 1,21 +,1 Canada 3,66 +,27 UK (offshore),99 -,8 Other FSU/ East. Europe,26 +,3 Azerbaijan 1,, Turkmenistan,24 +,2 Kazakhstan 1,62 -,5 Mexico 2,95 -,2 U.S. ( States) 1,9 +,9 Colombia,94 -,2 Ecuador,49, Other Central and S. America,44 -,3 Venezuela 2,2, Brazil 2,71 -,2 Argentina,77 +,4 Nigeria 2,15 -,2 Algeria 1,27, Libya 1,4 +1,3 Eq. Guinea,33 +,3 Gabon,25, Angola 1,75 +,15 Egypt, +,2 Sudan,11 -,32 Iraq 2,9 +,35 Saudi Arabia 9,8 +,2 UAE 2, -,1 Iran 3,13 -,57 Kuwait 2,6 +,1 Qatar,73 -,12 Yemen,15 +,7 Oman,88, India,94 -,1 Vietnam,36 +,6 China 4,47 +,1 Indonesia - - Malaysia,62 +,4 Australia,56 +,11 Syria,21 -,16 Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 36,37 41, 17,51 13,33 8,97 4,6 4,86 2, 1,29 +1,32 +,42 +1,16 +,1 +,31 -,1 -,2 -,27 -,9

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 Demand Supply Supply/Demand o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 a-12 s-12 o-12 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,99,98,97,96, ratio in days

11 Oil Correlations ,315 1,31 1,5 1,3 1,295 1,29 1,285 1,28 1,275 1,27 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD EUR/USD Week 42 1,2959 Previous week 1,35 -,58% oil in USD/bbl Brent DOW JONES DOW JONES Week ,85 Previous week 1361,15-2,6% oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week Previous week ,5% Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl EIA CRUDE STOCK Week ,37 Previous week 365,18 +,32% EUR/USD exchange rate has risen by,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 1,3% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (1,2831) the current rate is 1% higher. Dow Jones index has risen by 9,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 1,9% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (12933,9) the current index is 3,1% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 47,7% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 14,1% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (195592) the current level is 9,2% higher. EIA crude stock level has risen by 11,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by,3% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (363,125 mln bbl) the current level is,9% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price 27,8 28, 27,6 27,4 27,2 27, 26, 27, Gas ZEE Cal+1 25, Gas ZEE DA 26,8 26,6 26,4 Gas TTF Cal+1 24, 23, Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA 26,2 22, 26, in EUR/MWh 21, in EUR/MWh Gas steady Natural gas prices for Calendar213 contract were steady last week, falling slightly in Belgium and rising a little in the Netherlands and United Kingdom. Prompt gas prices rose overall last week, but fell on Friday, as warmer weather weighed on demand and Norway boosted deliveries following maintenance-related supply interruptions earlier in the week. Higher Norwegian deliveries reduced demand for storage withdrawals to balance Britain's network stretched due to a sharp cut in liquefied natural gas shipments. At present there are no scheduled LNG shipments heading to the UK. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 213 Week 42 27,3 Previous week 27,6 Gas TTF 213 Week 42 26,65 Previous week 26,6 Gas NBP 213 Week 42 27,57 Previous week 27,52 Gas SPAIN 213 Week 42 29,12 Previous week 28,44 -,13% +,18% +,17% +2,39% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 42 avg 26,76 Prev.week avg 25,9 Gas TTF DA Week 42 avg 26,56 Prev.week avg 25,99 Gas NBP DA Week 42 avg 23,61 Prev.week avg 23,67 +3,3% +2,17% -,23%

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent3 213 Brent3 213 Brent Brent GOL3 212 GOL GOL GOL3 212 GOL Brent3 213 Week 42 86,5 Previous week 83,81 Brent Week 42 86,43 Previous week 84,35 Brent Week 42 85,67 Previous week 83,67 Brent3 213 Week 42 82,79 Previous week 8,91 Brent Week 42 85,12 Previous week 82,75 +2,67% +2,47% +2,39% +2,32% +2,86% in EUR/bbl LFO3 213 LFO LFO LFO3 213 LFO in EUR/tonne in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 3 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. GOL3 213 Week ,73 Previous week 725,79 GOL Week ,74 Previous week 729,89 GOL Week ,72 Previous week 725,51 GOL3 213 Week ,94 Previous week 724,79 GOL Week ,84 Previous week 717,57 LFO3 213 Week ,6 Previous week 461,77 LFO Week ,82 Previous week 465,21 LFO Week ,71 Previous week 464,66 LFO3 213 Week ,85 Previous week 464,52 LFO Week ,79 Previous week 458,43 +2,88% +2,71% +2,64% +2,5% +2,68% +2,99% +2,71% +2,59% +2,43% +3,35%

14 in EUR/MWh Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked gas price Cal212 Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Week 42 36,95 Previous week 35,97 +2,72% The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 212 is 36,95 EUR/MWh, which is 8,2% higher that at the beginning of 212. During the last days the price has decreased by 1,3%. Compared to the year to date average of 36,39 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,5% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 1,3 EUR/MWh, which is 1,82 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and,51 EUR/MWh more than the year to date average of 9,79 EUR/MWh. The premium has increased by 1,21 EUR/MWh during the last days.

15 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Index Coal, API N2 EUAs CO Week 42 94,6 Previous week 97,2-2,67% 9, 8,5 Week 42 7,83 Previous week 7,81 +,25% , Coal, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 7,5 CO2 94 7, ,5 6, in EUR/tonne Coal fell on ample supplies Prompt physical coal prices fell under 95 USD/tonne on ample supplies in Europe. There is a substantial amount of Q4 South African coal in the hands of traders which they are now offering and this is helping to weaken prices. Both India and China, the two biggest spot buyers of thermal coal, remain sidelined, and this will further weigh on prices. India's imports of coal in general and South African in particular have been strong all year despite the current lull in spot buying. Asia as a whole accounted for 63% of South Africa's September coal exports. EUAs steady European carbon prices were steady last week after a sale for nearly half of the 5 million permits expected by the market was postponed. Traders said there is a little bit of demand, mainly utility hedging, but carbon is struggling to go in either direction. Normally, there should not be further increases considering all the volume coming to market later this year - the EU and three member states will sell 12 million permits from the phase of the bloc s Emissions Trading Scheme before January to help power companies hedge forward electricity sales.

16 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead 86, Russia Baltic 82,75 LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead 86,35 Russia Eastern 94, China 115,89 Colombia 76,35 Richard Bay South Africa 84,82 Maputo South Africa 82,82 Richards Bay Month Ahead 84,45 Kalimantan Indonesia 68,5 Newcastle Australia 83,4 Newcastle Australia - Japan 115,25 12 China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Richards Bay Month Ahead 8 Newcastle Australia 84 EEX Month Ahead Russia Baltic Russia Eastern 82 6 Russia Eastern 8 Physical Trades Futures

17 Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast , Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 15,25 Jan-21 Jul , Natural Gas U. K , CO2 11,79 Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul , Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan ,86 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan , , , , Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul ,79 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Natural Gas Germany Heavy Fuel Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan EUR/USD Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Gasoil Coal Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

18 Power Power Europe last 3 months 8 75 Belgium Netherlands 65 Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool 4 Spain 35 Italy Austria Bearish power outlook for 213 Power contracts for delivery in 213 fell in Continental Europe on forecasts for mild winter weather and a bearish power capacity outlook for Germany. Traders said prices could fall to levels last seen in November 21. Although Germany has shut nuclear reactor capacity, it is building up reserves and also enjoys plenty of renewable capacity. In the spot market, power prices were slightly bullish at the end of last week, on reduced German wind and solar power supplies and a gloomy French supply picture, but prices may soon fall back. A bearish sign is that German and Austrian energy capacity is likely to increase by 7.2% this week due to additions at most thermal and hydroelectric plants. In France, four of EDF's reactors returned to the grid after outages last week, and despite a new one going offline, supply is expected to improve overall. Strikes at French E.ON coal-fired plants in a dispute over site closures and job losses may affect spot prices at certain extent.

19 Power Power Germany Power France 52, 49 51, EMP Structural Price Cal+1 51,,5 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 48 DE Cal+1 bsld, FR Cal+1 bsld 47 DE Cal+2 bsld 49,5 FR Cal+2 bsld 47 49, 46 in EUR/MWh 48,5 in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 47,35 EUR/MWh, or 8,24% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of,5 EUR/MWh, the current price is 5,39% lower. DE Cal+1 bsld The contract is,21 EUR/MWh Week 42 47,35 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week 48,5 Cal213 structural price, which DE Cal+2 bsld Week 42 48,25 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 48,8 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,9 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 42 47,56 Previous week 47,74 DE Spot Week 42 avg 43,13 Prev. week avg 42,33-1,45% -1,12% -,37% +1,88% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 49,85 EUR/MWh, or,3% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,3 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,31% lower. FR Cal+1 bsld The contract is,24 EUR/MWh Week 42 49,85 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,85 Cal213 structural price, which FR Cal+2 bsld Week 42,47 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 51,29 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,62 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 42,9 Previous week,31 FR Spot Week 42 avg 47,86 Prev. week avg 48,13-1,96% -1,59% -,44% -,56% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

20 Power Power Correlations DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Brent oil DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Coal Index ,4 52 8, , , ,8 26,6 26,4 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal ,6 7,4 7,2 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld EUA 46 26, ,8

21 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 51 BE Cal+2 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal NL Cal+1 bsld NL Cal+2 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 51,1 EUR/MWh, or,45% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of,41 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,37% higher. The contract is,35 EUR/MWh BE Cal+1 bsld Week 42 51,1 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 51,46 Cal213 structural price, which BE Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 42,92 Previous week 51,54 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently,18 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 42,75 Previous week, BE Spot Week 42 avg 47,79 Prev. week avg,22 -,69% -1,2% +,48% -4,84% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 51,5 EUR/MWh, or 1,44% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,81 EUR/MWh, the current price is,61% lower. The contract is,23 EUR/MWh NL Cal+1 bsld Week 42 51, higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 52,15 Cal213 structural price, which NL Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 42, Previous week,6 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently 1 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 42 51,27 Previous week 51,6 NL Spot Week 42 avg 53,4 Prev. week avg 53,73-1,24% -,19% +,41% -1,27% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

22 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Cal+1 bsld NP Cal+2 bsld 6 EMP Structural Price Cal EMP Structural Price Cal+1 NP Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh 35 in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 6,53 EUR/MWh, or 15,3% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 58,65 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,2% higher. UK Season+1 bsld The contract is 3,46 EUR/MWh Week 42 6,53 higher than the estimated EMP +,17% Previous week 6,42 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Seas+1 suggests some downward Week 42 6,1 Previous week 6,5 -,7% pressure on the forward curve. UK Spot Week 42 avg 57,7 Prev. week avg 53,75 +6,16% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 37,65 EUR/MWh, or 9,28% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 38,77 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,9% lower. The contract is,26 EUR/MWh NP Cal+1 bsld Week 42 37,65 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 37,85 Cal213 structural price, which NP Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 42 38,65 Previous week 38,84 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently 1 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 42 37,39 Previous week 37, NP Spot Week 42 avg 34, Prev. week avg,41 -,52% -,48% +1,4% +12,77% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power Italy Power Spain , 54,5 54, 53, EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld 53, 52,5 52, 51,5 51,,5 EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld 69, in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 71,25 EUR/MWh, or 17,75% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 74,5 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,79% lower. The contract is 3,98 EUR/MWh IT CalY+1 bsld Week 42 71,25 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 71,4 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week 42,85 Previous week,83 pressure on the forward curve. IT Spot Week 42 avg 67,27 Prev. week avg 68,99 -,21% +,2% -2,48% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 53,4 EUR/MWh, or 2,69% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,89 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,91% higher. The contract is 3,69 EUR/MWh SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week 42 53,4 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 54, Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week 42 54,22 Previous week 54,17 pressure on the forward curve. SP Spot Week 42 avg 49,71 Prev. week avg 53, -1,65% +,1% -6,2% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

24 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep EMP Structural Price Cal+1 AT Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh EMP Structural Price Cal+1 HU Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh EMP Structural Price Cal+1 CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal+1 bsld Week 42 47,35 Previous week 48,5 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 42 47,56 Previous week 47,72 AT Spot Week 42 avg 43,13 Prev. week avg 42,33-1,45% -,33% +1,88% HU Cal+1 bsld Week 42 44,16 Previous week 39,99 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 42 49,9 Previous week 53,15 HU Spot Week 42 avg 47,78 Prev. week avg 47,9 +1,42% -7,63% -,25% CZ Cal+1 bsld Week 42 46, Previous week 47,2 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 42 46,85 Previous week 46,9 CZ Spot Week 42 avg 42,8 Prev. week avg 4,46-1,5% -,1% +5,77%

25 Power Current prices UK 6,53 6,33,2 LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain 53,4 54,5 -,65 Belgium 51,1,92,18 France 49,85, -,45 Holland 51, 51,49,1 Italy 71,25 71,7,18 Germany 47,35 47,73 -,38 Austria 47,35 47,73 -,38 Nordic 37,65 37,56,9 Czech Rep. 46, 47, -, Hungary 44,16 48,27-4,11 Historical range Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

26 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads Spark Spread Spot DE Week 42 avg -9,85 Prev. week avg -12,74 Spark Spread Spot FR Week 42 avg -5,67 Prev. week avg -3,66 Spark Spread Spot NL Week 42 avg -,7 Prev. week avg 1, Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 42 avg -12,82 Prev. week avg -15,67 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 42 avg -8,64 Prev. week avg -6,61 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 42 avg -3,4 Prev. week avg -1, Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR Spark Spread Spot NL Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Clean Spark Spread Spot NL - -, -1, -2, -3, Spark Spread Cal 212 DE Week 42-6,19 Previous week -5,75 Spark Spread 212 FR Week 42-4,21 Previous week -3,27 Spark Spread 212 NL Week 42-1,8 Previous week -1, Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week 42-9,21 Previous week -8,84 Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week 42-7, Previous week -6,36 Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week 42-4,89 Previous week -4,14-4, -5, -6, -7, Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL

27 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads 23,5 22,5 21,5 2,5 19,5 18,5 17,5 16,5 15,5 14,5 16, 15,5 15, 14,5 14, 13,5 13, 12,5 12, 11,5 11, 1,5 1, 9,5 9, 8,5 8, 7,5 Dark Spread 212 DE Week 42 18,29 Previous week 18,36 Dark Spread 212 FR Week 42 2,79 Previous week 21,16 Dark Spread 212 NL Week 42 22,44 Previous week 22,46 Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week 42 11,3 Previous week 11,4 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week 42 13,46 Previous week 13,84 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week 42 15,12 Previous week 15,14 Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity. Premiums 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% Week 42-5,2% Previous week -5,51% BE/FR Week 42 2,51% Previous week 1,2% BE/NL Week 42 -,78% Previous week -1,32% DE/NL Week 42-8,6% Previous week -7,86% DE/BE Week 42-7,34% Previous week -6,63% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR DE/FR +,49% +1,3% +,54% -,19% -,71%

28 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Power Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan Power Spain Power Netherlands Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Power France 57.1 Power U. K Power Italy Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul Power Belgium Power Nord Pool Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

29 Currency Currency Rates 1,34 EUR/USD Week 42 1,2959 Previous week 1,35 -,58% 1,64 GBP/USD Week 42 1,674 Previous week 1,614 -,4% 1,32 1,63 1, 1,62 1,61 1,28 1,26 EUR/USD 1,6 1,59 GBP/USD 1,24 1,22 1,2 1,58 1,57 1,56 1,55 1, 1,29 1,28 1,27 1,26 1,25 1,24 1,23 1,22 1,21 1,2 GBP/EUR EUR/NOK Week 42 1,244 +,17% 7, Week 42 7,45 +,9% Previous week 1,2382 Previous week 7,3935 GBP/EUR 7,45 7,4 7,35 7, 7,25 7,2 EUR/NOK