Weekly Report 23 July 2014 ENERGY STATISTICS 2014, WEEK 27

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 214, WEEK 27 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent crude steadied above 17 USD/barrel as a stronger dollar and weak demand offset threats to supplies from oil-producing regions. EU threatened Russia with harsher sanctions after the downing of the Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. The euro slipped to an 8-month low against the dollar. Natural Gas Natural gas futures rose on bullish oil and renewed fears of escalated tensions between Russia and Western countries after the Malaysian plane crushed in Eastern Ukraine. On the other hand, pressure eased on short term natural gas prices as supply continued to exceed demand. CO2 European carbon held above 6 euros as analysts predicted that a reduced number of permits entering the market would help to support prices through the rest of July. European governments will halve their auction quotas in August to reflect lower summer demand. Europe Distillates Gas oil rose 1%, while HFO 3.5% ARA gained.7%. Gasoil differentials stayed under pressure, but traders said that they expected a bit more strength in the coming weeks due to more limited supply. Low utilisation rates at European refiners have helped to prevent further weakness in the market. Coal European physical coal prices rose as the threat of a new round of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, a large coal exporter, led traders to price in a market risk premium. Uncertainty over whether Colombian coal exports would be affected by an ongoing strike were also supporting prices. Electricity Forward prices for electricity rose in Europe, with the German benchmark power contract rising to a 4-month high in response to the possibility that the European Union could impost new sanctions on Russia that might have knock-on effects for its exports of gas, oil and coal to Europe.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil Belgian gas (Zee) Dutch gas (TTF) UK gas (NBP) Iberian gas European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 214 French power 214 Belgian power 214 Dutch power 214 UK power next season Nordic power 214 Italian power 214 Iberian power % -5.3% -5.% -1.1% -.8% -.6% -1.1% -1.2% -2.1%.7% 6.% 2.3%.2%.3%.1% 4.4%.7% Overview of main energy products in last days 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil July July % WTI Brent in USD/bbl Gasoil July July % in USD/tonne Brent crude price has fallen by 3.1% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 5.9% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 214 average to date (18.8 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.4% lower. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at USD/bbl, or 47.6% higher than the actual price,which suggests some upward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has risen by 6.1% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 1.6% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average (11.1 USD/bbl) the current price is 3.3% higher. Heavy fuel oil price has fallen by 2% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 5.3% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average (576.1 USD/bbl) the current price is.8% lower. Gas oil price has fallen by 6.5% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 5% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average (98.9 USD/bbl) the current price is 2.9% lower Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA July July % in USD/tonne Brent steady Brent crude steadied above 17 USD/barrel as a stronger dollar and weak demand offset threats to supplies from oil-producing regions. EU threatened Russia with harsher sanctions after the downing of the Malaysian airliner in Ukraine. The euro slipped to an 8-month low against the dollar on diverging interest rate outlooks for the U.S. and euro zone and with fears that further sanctions on Russia could damage the euro zone economy. A stronger dollar tends to weigh on commodities such as oil as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. In Libya, oil production fell by nearly 2%, with violence threatening a hard-won deal to restore oil exports. Traders were also monitoring fighting in the Gaza strip, as diplomats seek a ceasefire. Gas oil rose 1%, while HFO 3.5% ARA gained.7% in the last 7 days. Diesel and gasoil differentials stayed under pressure, but traders said that they expected a bit more strength in the coming weeks due to more limited supply. Limited imports from the United States and low utilisation rates at European refiners (gasoil production 9.8% lower in June compared to the previous year) have helped to prevent further weakness in the market, although slack demand has kept differentials weak.

6 Focus German green energy law Germany's upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, approved revamped legislation on funding renewable energy, clearing the way for the law to come into force on August 1. The far-reaching law, which seeks to cap support payments for renewables without jeopardising the country's shift towards a low carbon economy, had hung in the balance, after months of negotiations, due to wrangling with European Union authorities over its compatibility with state aid guidelines. But Brussels granted its consent this week, providing encouragement to the Bundesrat, to vote through the reform package to the renewable energy act (EEG). Germany's lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, approved the reform package two weeks ago. European Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Germany had cleared up two other remaining issues - the need to bring foreign renewable power into planned auctions for green energy from 217 and to change the system of allowing industrial companies, which produce their own power, full discounts on the EEG after that date. The EU accepted a German pledge that it will bring foreign renewable power producers into planned auctions for green energy from 217. This is so that certain imported volumes can benefit from prices paid in the German market, but under competitive rules. The EC had argued that green energy support in Germany currently only benefits domestic producers and that it is funded by levying charges on customers' final bill, which would represent unfair taxation. Germany, a net power exporter, held out against widening support payments for domestic green power producers to include foreign green power producers because that could have resulted in opening the floodgates to more imports and even higher energy prices for its citizens, if they have to cover subsidies to a greater number of producers. The EU also agreed with Germany s plan to continue allowing industrial companies, if they produce their own power, discounts of up to 4% on renewable surcharges up to the end of 217. The Commission had argued this could give unfair advantage to German industry. But Germany said it needed to encourage producers operating combined heat and power plants in particular, because that process limits damage to the environment. In 211 Germany embarked on a strategy to accelerate its exit from nuclear energy in light of Fukushima crisis, stepping up its renewables expansion and lowering its dependence on power stations that run on gas and coal. Green energy from sources such as wind or sunshine has already reached a share of 25% of Germany's power mix and is meant to reach 45% by 225 and 6% by 235. The EEG reform is aimed at lowering the cost of green energy funding for consumers, among a number of other elements that will be introduced in future, including compensation of conventional producers for loss of market share. Source: Reuters

7 Focus Europe s wind capacity to grow more slowly than expected Europe's installed wind capacity will increase at a slower rate to the end of the decade than previously estimated due to regulatory uncertainty and weak economic growth, an industry association said. European Union countries will have a combined GW of installed wind energy capacity by 22, 64% higher than 213 levels, the European Wind Energy Association said in a report. However, this is almost 4 GW below the EWEA's previous estimate five years ago of 2 GW by 22. The European Commission has revised its estimate of final power demand in 22 to 2,956 TWh, which is 11% lower than its 29 estimate of 3,336 TWh. This reduced estimate has had a impact on new power installations for all generation technologies, and has impacted investment plans, new orders and existing installations in markets across Europe, EWEA said. Several European countries have slashed subsidies for renewables, including wind energy, because they were too much of a burden on their economies. However, offshore wind markets such as Germany, France, Britain and Poland have quickly finalised policy reforms which should support a pick-up in wind installations, EWEA said. Out of EWEA's new capacity estimate of 192 GW, 23.5 GW of installations will be in the offshore wind sector and there should be up to 124 billion euros of investment in wind farms by 22. Wind energy should also produce 442 TWh of power, meeting nearly 15% of EU electricity consumption by 22. Previous EWEA, National Renewable Action Plans, EC and new EWEA 22 EU wind power installation scenarios in GW Source: Reuters

8 Focus Europe s wind capacity Source: EWEA

9 1/1/28 1/2/28 1/3/28 1/4/28 1/5/28 1/6/28 1/7/28 1/8/28 1/9/28 1/1/28 1/11/28 1/12/28 1/1/29 1/2/29 1/3/29 1/4/29 1/5/29 1/6/29 1/7/29 1/8/29 1/9/29 1/1/29 1/11/29 1/12/29 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/211 1/2/211 1/3/211 1/4/211 1/5/211 1/6/211 1/7/211 1/8/211 1/9/211 1/1/211 1/11/211 1/12/211 1/1/212 1/2/212 1/3/212 1/4/212 1/5/212 1/6/212 1/7/212 1/8/212 1/9/212 1/1/212 1/11/212 1/12/212 1/1/213 1/2/213 1/3/213 1/4/213 1/5/213 1/6/213 1/7/213 1/8/213 1/9/213 1/1/213 1/11/213 1/12/213 1/1/214 1/2/214 1/3/214 1/4/214 1/5/214 1/6/214 Oil Structural Price Oil 11 EMP Structural price 9 EMP Structural price+speculation 7 in USD/bbl Oil high on speculation The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs, shows a structural increase at the beginning of the year. Speculation is particularly important, approaching its highest level in years. There is also a high correlation with financial indicators. Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

10 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 1/1/211 1/2/211 1/3/211 1/4/211 1/5/211 1/6/211 1/7/211 1/8/211 1/9/211 1/1/211 1/11/211 1/12/211 1/1/21 1/2/21 1/3/21 1/4/21 1/5/21 1/6/21 1/7/21 1/8/21 1/9/21 1/1/21 1/11/21 1/12/21 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 211 July July Stock EIA crude range (24-213) Stock EIA 214 % Stock ARA HFO 211 July July Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-213) Stock ARA HFO % in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 July July % Stock ARA Gasoline 211 July July % Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-213) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-213) Stock ARA Gasoline 214 in K tonnes in K tonnes

11 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of July 214. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway Other North Sea.25. Russia Canada UK (offshore) Other FSU/ East. Europe Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Mexico U.S. ( States) Colombia Ecuador Other Central and S. America Venezuela 2.2. Brazil Argentina Nigeria Algeria Libya Eq. Guinea Gabon.24. Angola Egypt Sudan Iraq Saudi Arabia UAE 2.7. Iran 2.8. Kuwait 2.6. Qatar Yemen Oman Syria India.98. Vietnam China Malaysia Australia Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East

12 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories ratio Demand Supply Supply/Demand in days U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover

13 Oil Correlations Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD Brent oil in USD/bbl DOW JONES EUR/USD DOW JONES July July % July July % oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) SPECULATIVE NET POSITION EIA CRUDE STOCK July July % July July % EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen by 2% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 1% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average (1.3698) the current rate is 1.7% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by 3.2% since the beginning of 214, and increased by 1% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average ( ) the current index is 4% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 12.5% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 12.6% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average (39777) the current level is.5% higher. EIA crude stock level has risen by 4% since the beginning of 214, and descended by 3.4% during the last days. Compared to the 214 average ( mln bbl) the current level is.7% lower.

14 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price Gas ZEE Cal+1 Gas TTF Cal+1 Gas NBP Cal+1 Gas SPA Cal Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA Gas GASPOOL DA Gas PEG DA in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Futures up on bullish oil and Ukraine crisis Natural gas prices futures on bullish oil and renewed fears of escalated tensions between Russia and Western countries after the Malaysian plane crushed in Eastern Ukraine. Analysts said that sanctions expected to be imposed on Russia in the coming days over the Ukraine crisis could be bullish for the prompt contract. The European Union has threatened Russia with harsher restrictions that could inflict wider damage on its economy following the downing of a Malaysian airliner. On the other hand, pressure eased on short term natural gas prices as supply continued to exceed demand. Long systems and higher forecasted UK Continental Shelf flows are the two bearish factors for the day-ahead contract, analysts said. Systems have been oversupplied for most of the year so far due to mild weather, regular imports and ample inventories. In the last 7 days, natural gas storage rose by 1 percentage point to 8.2% in Germany and by 1.37 percentage points to 89.26% in Great Britain.

15 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent Brent3 214 Brent GOL3 214 GOL GOL GOL Brent3 215 July July Brent July July Brent July July Brent July July Brent July July % +.69% +.69% +.73% +.47% Brent in EUR/bbl LFO3 214 LFO LFO LFO LFO in EUR/tonne 64 6 GOL in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 73 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. GOL3 215 July July GOL July July GOL July July GOL July July GOL July July LFO3 215 July July LFO July July LFO July July LFO July July LFO July July % +1.1% +1.2% +1.6% +.74% +.47% +.45% +.47% +.45% +.5%

16 Natural Gas Natural gas storage BAUMGARTEN, in % GERMANY, in % LEGEND in billion cubic meters empty capacity full capacity IBERIAN, in % NBP, in % PEG, in % PSV, in % BAUMGARTEN PEG July % July % % July % July % GERMANY PSV July % July % July % July % IBERIAN TTF July % July % +.81% July % July % NBP ZEEBRUGGE July % July % +1.37% July % July % % +1% +2.4% % % TTF, in % ZEE, in %

17 in EUR/MWh 22/7/213 1/8/213 11/8/213 21/8/213 31/8/213 1/9/213 2/9/213 /9/213 1/1/213 2/1/213 /1/213 9/11/213 19/11/213 29/11/213 9/12/213 19/12/213 29/12/213 8/1/214 18/1/214 28/1/214 7/2/214 17/2/214 27/2/214 9/3/214 19/3/214 29/3/214 8/4/214 18/4/214 28/4/214 8/5/214 18/5/214 28/5/214 7/6/214 17/6/214 Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal Y+1 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal+1Y July July % The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar Y+1 is EUR/MWh, which is.3% higher that at the beginning of 214. During the last days the price has decreased by 2.4%. Compared to the year to date average of 32.8 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.5% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 9.3 EUR/MWh, which is 2.16 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and 1.3 EUR/MWh more than the year to date average of 8 EUR/MWh. The premium has decreased by 6.33 EUR/MWh during the last days.

18 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Coal Cal+1, API N2 EUAs CO2 8 July July % 6.5 July July % Coal Cal+1, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 5.6 CO in EUR/tonne Coal on market risk premium European physical coal prices rose as the threat of a new round of U.S. and European sanctions against Russia, a large coal exporter, led traders to price in a market risk premium. Uncertainty over whether Colombian coal exports would be affected by an ongoing strike as well as pit closures due to intense dust following a drought, were also supporting prices. EU members will discuss a specific list of possible new targets for sanctions against Russia. Russia and Colombia both supply around a quarter of total EU hard coal imports, followed by the United States, which makes up around 2% of total imports. Carbon seen bullish European carbon held above 6 euros as analysts predicted that a reduced number of permits entering the market would help to support prices through the rest of July. European governments will halve their auction quotas in August to reflect lower summer demand. Fewer than 8 million units will be auctioned by governments this week as Britain takes its fortnightly pause in sales. EUA futures are up 3.4% since June and 22% higher for the year so far, mostly because of an EU plan to withdraw 4 million allowances from sale this year.

19 1/1/212 2/1/212 3/1/212 4/1/212 5/1/212 6/1/212 7/1/212 8/1/212 9/1/212 1/1/212 11/1/212 12/1/212 13/1/212 14/1/212 15/1/212 16/1/212 17/1/212 18/1/212 19/1/212 2/1/212 21/1/212 22/1/212 23/1/212 24/1/212 25/1/212 26/1/212 27/1/212 28/1/212 29/1/212 /1/212 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead Russia Baltic 68. LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead Russia Eastern China Colombia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Richards Bay Month Ahead Kalimantan Indonesia 68.5 Newcastle Australia Newcastle Australia - Japan China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Russia Eastern Physical Trades FREIGHT July 22 July 15 RICHARD BAY - ROTTERDAM RICHARD BAY - MEDITERRANEAN QUEENSLAND - ROTTERDAM PUERTO BOLIVAR - ROTTERDAM MARACAIBO - ROTTERDAM HR - ROTTERDAM US GULF OF MEXICO - ARA

20 Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast Oil Heavy Fuel Oil Gasoil Natural Gas U. K Natural Gas Germany Coal CO EUR/USD Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

21 Power Power Europe last 3 months Belgium Netherlands Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spain Italy Austria Futures rise on Russia-Ukraine crisis Forward prices for electricity rose in Europe, with the Cal215 bsld contract adding 2.3% in Germany, 2.4% in UK, 1.6% in the Netherlands,.6% in France and.4% in Belgium. The German benchmark power contract rose to a 4-month high in response to the possibility that the European Union could impost new sanctions on Russia that might have knock-on effects for its exports of gas, oil and coal to Europe. The EU has threatened Russia with harsher restrictions that could inflict wider damage on its economy, following the downing of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine. Traders said that firmer gas and oil prices, lifted by similar reasons, also contributed to the higher levels, as these markets interact with power. In spot power trading, lower renewable and conventional power supply pushed the prompt higher, while consumption was steady to lower, traders said.

22 Power Power Germany Power France EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y DE Cal+1Y bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y FR Cal+1Y bsld 33. DE Cal+2Y bsld 41.2 FR Cal+2Y bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at 35.3 EUR/MWh, or 3.29% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is.3% higher. The contract is.9 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal+2 bsld is currently 1.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld DE Cal+1Y bsld July July DE Cal+2Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July DE Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +2.9% +.23% +2.14% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at 42 EUR/MWh, or 1.18% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is.61% lower. The contract is.29 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal+2 bsld is currently.45 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1Y bsld July July FR Cal+2Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July FR Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % % +.53% % FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power Correlations DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Brent oil DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Coal Index DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal+1 36 EUA

24 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y 46.5 BE Cal+1Y bsld 4 NL Cal+1Y bsld BE Cal+2Y bsld NL Cal+2Y bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at EUR/MWh, or 13.61% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.97% higher. The contract is.31 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal+2 bsld is currently.9 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld BE Cal+1Y bsld July July BE Cal+2Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July BE Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +1.8% +.43% +3.13% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at EUR/MWh, or 3.3% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of 42.9 EUR/MWh, the current price is.59% higher. The contract is.91 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal+2 bsld is currently 2.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld NL Cal+1Y bsld July July NL Cal+2Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July NL Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +1.36% +.57% +2.24% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

25 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Season+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Seas NP Cal+2Y bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y NP Cal+1Y bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh UK Season+1 bsld price closed on Jan. 8 at 6.32 EUR/MWh, or.35% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of 59.2 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.2% higher. The contract is EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP UK Season+1 bsld structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve UK Season+1 bsld July July % EMP Structural Price Seas+1 July July UK Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +1.82% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at EUR/MWh, or.9% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of 31.7 EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.11% higher. The contract is.51 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal+2 bsld is currently.95 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld NP Cal+1Y bsld July July NP Cal+2Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July NP Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +.6% +2.15% +3.76% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

26 Power Power Italy Power Spain EMP Structural Price Y EMP Structural Price Y IT CalY+1 bsld 48 SP Cal Y+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed on Jan. 8 at 53 EUR/MWh, or 15.81% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.32% lower. The contract is 6.29 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal213 structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve IT CalY+1 bsld July July EMP Structural Price Y+1 July July IT Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +.78% +7.77% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal+1Y price closed on Jan. 8 at EUR/MWh, or 2.34% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 214 average to date of.39 EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.83% lower. The contract is 1.13 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal+1Y structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve SP Cal Y+1 bsld July July EMP Structural Price Y+1 July July SP Spot Weekly avg 49.8 July 15 avg % -.93% +4.1% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

27 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y AT Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y HU Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal+1Y bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July AT Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % +.31% +2.14% HU Cal+1 bsld July July EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July HU Spot Weekly avg 39.9 July 15 avg % % -2.59% CZ Cal+1 bsld July July % EMP Structural Price Cal+1Y July July CZ Spot Weekly avg July 15 avg % -3.66%

28 Power Current prices UK LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain Belgium France Holland Italy Germany Austria Nordic Czech Rep Hungary Historical range 12 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

29 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Spark Spread Cal 214 DE July July Spark Spread 214 FR July July Spark Spread 214 NL July July Spark Spread 214 DE Spark Spread 214 FR Spark Spread 214 NL Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity.

30 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads Dark Spread 214 DE July July Dark Spread 214 FR July July Dark Spread 214 NL July July Dark Spread 214 DE Dark Spread 214 FR Dark Spread 214 NL Clean Dark Spread 214 DE July July Clean Dark Spread 214 FR July July Clean Dark Spread 214 NL July July Premiums 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% -2% % 2% -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% -18% -2% -22% -24% -26% -28% -% July % July % BE/FR July % July % BE/NL July % July % DE/NL July % July % DE/BE July % July % DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR DE/FR +1.36% -.2% -1.34% +.48% +1.33% Clean Dark Spread 214 DE Clean Dark Spread 214 FR Clean Dark Spread 214 NL

31 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast Power Germany Power France Power Belgium Power Netherlands Power U. K Power Nord Pool Power Spain Power Italy Long term forecast is based on a trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

32 Currency Currency Rates EUR/USD July July % 1.73 GBP/USD July July % EUR/USD 1.71 GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/NOK July % 8. July % July July GBP/EUR EUR/NOK