ENERGY STATISTICS 2011, WEEK 20

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 2011, WEEK 20 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent crude oil fell 0.5% after an overall stable week. The dollar index recovered from earlier weakness. The euro fell against the dollar on disagreements over solutions to Greece's debt and ahead of Spanish regional elections. Disappointing U.S. economic data helped push oil futures lower. Natural Gas Gas futures rose by 0.9% in Belgium and by 1.4% in U.K., but fell by 0.2% in Germany and by 1.4% in the Netherlands. In the spot market, prices rose by 0.9% in U.K., were overall stable in Belgium and Germany and fell by 1.6% in the Netherlands. Healthy supply kept the market in balance. CO2 European CO2 permits fell almost 2% during the week despite expected resistance to depreciation stated by traders one week before. Demand from utilities weakened and there is no much support from neither oil nor German power prices, which both slid during the week 20. Europe Distillates Gas oil fell 1.4% and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA fell 2.6%. There was weak demand in northwest Europe, and water levels in the Rhine and Danube remain low due to patchy rain, inhibiting barge traffic. European oil refinery utilisation rates were below 80% in April because of poor margins. Coal Coal prices rose 1.4% due to the dollar's rise and expectation of renewed Chinese demand, which could tighten the market globally. Trading was still weak in Europe. Suppliers think that ARA prices will go lower in the near term unless demand picks up quickly from China. Electricity Forward contracts fell by 0.7% in Germany and Belgium, by 1% in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and by 2.8% in the Nordic Pool. The contract rose only in U.K., where it gained 1.5% on the back of a firmer natural gas. Spot power were mixed, with less that 2% variations.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas 2012 (NBP) Belgian gas 2012 (ZEE) Dutch gas 2012 (TTF) German gas 2012 (BUD) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 2012 French power 2012 Belgian power 2012 Dutch power 2012 UK power 2012 Nordic power 2012 Italian power 2012 Iberian power 2012 Overview of main energy products in last 30 days 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week Previous week WTI Brent -0.49% in USD/tonne Gasoil Week Previous week % in USD/tonne Brent crude price has risen by 18.6% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 9.4% during the last 30 calendar days. Compared to the 2011 average to date (110.5 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.7% higher. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 88.1 USD/bbl, or 21.6% lower than the actual price, which suggests some downward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has risen by 8.9% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 11.4% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (98.8 USD/bbl) the current price is 0.7% higher. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 22.3% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 8.2% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (2.3 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.7% higher. Gas oil price has risen by 19.2% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 10.3% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (920.3 USD/bbl) the current price is 1.2% lower Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week 20 2 Previous week % in USD/tonne Crude falls 0.5%, looks bearish Brent crude oil fell 0.5% after an overall stable week. The dollar index recovered from earlier weakness to turn higher against other currencies. The euro fell against the dollar on disagreements over solutions to Greece's debt and ahead of Spanish regional elections. Ahead of OPEC's June 8 meeting, the International Energy Agency urged oil producers to boost supply in order to protect economic recovery. Disappointing U.S. economic data also helped push oil futures lower. Gas oil fell 1.4% and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA fell 2.6%. There was still not much demand in northwest Europe, and water levels in the Rhine and Danube remain low due to patchy rain, inhibiting barge traffic. European oil refinery utilisation rates were below 80% in April because of poor margins.

6 Focus How does emissions trading work? WHAT'S THE AIM? Carbon dioxide, produced by burning fossil fuels or through deforestation, is the main greenhouse gas that scientists say is heating up the atmosphere, causing seas to rise and greater extremes of weather. Putting a price on every tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by industry and transport or saved from being emitted by being more efficient or locking away carbon by growing trees provides a cash incentive to curb carbon pollution. HOW DOES IT WORK? Carbon markets allow polluters to buy rights to emit CO2 and are often seen as more politically acceptable than carbon taxes. Under cap-and-trade schemes, a cap is created by making it illegal to emit greenhouse gases, such as CO2, above a certain level. A government issues a limited quantity of emission permits for polluting companies or operations. At the end of each year, firms will be required to surrender permits equivalent to their emissions. If companies exceed their limit they can buy allowances from other polluters which stay under their cap or from a government auction. Over time the cap is toughened and the amount of permits also decreases, pushing up the carbon permit price and forcing companies to become more efficient and invest in cleaner technology. Under the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol, 37 industrialised nations face greenhouse gas limits, creating a multi-billion dollar market in offsets from clean-energy projects in developing countries. WHAT'S THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS MARKET? Some market players say the global carbon market could be worth $2 trillion by 2020, from $125 billion last year. Europe's scheme is the largest and the only domestic cap-and-trade system operating. The separate U.N. scheme under the Kyoto Protocol called the Clean Development Mechanism is worth about $6.5 billion. The EU trading scheme, launched 2005, is mandatory for all 27 member states and covers nearly half of all EU carbon emissions. The target is to cut emissions 21 percent below 2005 levels by Member states allocate a quota of carbon emissions allowances to 11,000 industrial installations. Companies get most permits free now but many electricity generators will have to pay for all these from Companies can buy carbon offsets from developing countries if that works out cheaper than cutting their own emissions. Source: Reuters.

7 1/1/2008 2/1/2008 3/1/2008 4/1/2008 5/1/2008 6/1/2008 7/1/2008 8/1/2008 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2008 1/1/2009 2/1/2009 3/1/2009 4/1/2009 5/1/2009 6/1/2009 7/1/2009 8/1/2009 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2009 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 Oil Structural Price EMP Structural price EMP Structural price+speculation Oil in USD/bbl Oil high despite lower fundamentals, fear and speculation is important The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural decrease of fundamentals. However, speculators and fears of supply disruptions in Arab world support prices above 100 USD/bbl. There is a high correlation with financial indicators (see previous page for the correlation with DOW JONES). Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 1/1/2011 2/1/2011 3/1/2011 4/1/2011 6/1/2011 7/1/2011 8/1/2011 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2011 1/1/2010 2/1/2010 3/1/2010 4/1/2010 5/1/2010 6/1/2010 7/1/2010 8/1/2010 9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2010 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 2011 Week Previous week Stock EIA crude range ( ) Stock EIA % Stock ARA HFO 2011 Week Previous week % Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range ( ) Stock ARA HFO 2011 in mln bbl in K tonnes Stock ARA GOL 2011 Week Previous week % Stock ARA Gasoline 2011 Week Previous week % Stock ARA Gasoil range ( ) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range ( ) Stock ARA Gasoline in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have risen by 2% during the last 30 days, and are now 23.8% above the median ( mln bbl). #N/A ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 8% during the last 30 days, and are now 11.8% above the median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have risen by 1.9% during the last 30 days, and are now 21.2% under the median (1983 mln bbl). in K tonnes in K tonnes

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of April The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 2.13 (0.12) Other North Sea Russia Canada UK (offshore) 1.28 (0.21) Other FSU/ East. Europe Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Mexico 2.82 (0.18) U.S. ( States) Colombia Ecuador 0.46 (0.02) Other Central and S. America 0.45 (0.02) Venezuela Brazil Argentina 0.78 (0.01) Nigeria Algeria 1.27 (0.08) Libya 1.34 (0.31) Eq. Guinea 0.31 (0.02) Gabon 0.22 (0.01) Angola 1.75 (0.23) Egypt Sudan 0.49 (0.03) Iraq Saudi Arabia UAE Iran 3,70-0,10 Kuwait Qatar Yemen 0.25 (0.01) Oman India Vietnam China Indonesia - - Malaysia Australia 0. (0.06) Syria 0.39 (0.02) Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East (0.35) (0.04) (0.01)

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories ratio Demand Supply Supply/Demand in days U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover

11 Oil Correlations oil in USD/bbl oil in USD/bbl Brent EUR/USD Brent DOW JONES EUR/USD Week Previous week % DOW JONES Week Previous week % oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week Previous week % EIA CRUDE STOCK Week Previous week % EUR/USD exchange rate has risen by 6.5% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 2.4% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (1.3952) the current rate is 2% higher. Dow Jones index has risen by 8.1% since the beginning of 2011, and increased by 0% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average ( ) the current index is 2.5% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 24.9% since the beginning of 2011, and descended by 20.1% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average (214383) the current level is 5.3% lower. EIA crude stock level has risen by 10.5% since the beginning of 2011, and increased by 2% during the last 30 days. Compared to the 2011 average ( mln bbl) the current level is 5.3% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price Gas TTF 2012 Gas NBP Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA 23 Gas ZEE Gas BUD DA Gas PEG DA Balanced market Gas futures rose by 0.9% in Belgium (Zeebrugge) and by 1.4% in U.K. (NBP), but fell by 0.2% in Germany (Bunde) and by 1.4% in the Netherlands (NBP). In the spot market, prices rose by 0.9% in U.K., were overall stable in Belgium and Germany and fell by 1.6% in the Netherlands. Healthy supply kept the market in balance and mild weather forecasts weighed on prices further out. Imports to U.K. from Norway via the Langeled pipeline were steady, while input from the Isle of Grain terminal fell. However, the return of gas flows from the Theddlethorpe terminal kept the market in balance. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 2012 Week Previous week Gas TTF 2012 Week Previous week Gas NBP 2012 Week Previous week Gas BUNDE 2012 Week Previous week Gas SPAIN 2012 Week Previous week % -1.43% +1.38% -0.18% 0% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 20 avg Prev.week avg Gas TTF DA Week 20 avg Prev.week avg Gas NBP DA Week 20 avg Prev.week avg Gas BUNDE DA Week 20 avg Prev.week avg Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 20 avg Prev.week avg % -1.% +0.93% -0.21% -1.43%

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent Brent Brent Brent in EUR/bbl LFO LFO LFO LFO LFO in EUR/tonne GOL GOL GOL GOL GOL in EUR/tonne 303 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 3 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 703 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week 77. Brent Week Previous week Brent Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week GOL Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week LFO Week Previous week % -0.05% -0.01% -0.02% +0.11% -0.62% -0.69% -0.7% -0.73% -0.49% -0.72% -0.75% -0.77% -0.8% -0.68%

14 5/22/2010 6/1/2010 6/11/2010 6/21/2010 7/1/2010 7/11/2010 7/21/2010 7/31/2010 8/10/2010 8/20/2010 8/30/2010 9/9/2010 9/19/2010 9/29/ /9/ /19/ /29/ /8/ /18/ /28/ /8/ /18/ /28/2010 1/7/2011 1/17/2011 1/27/2011 2/6/2011 2/16/2011 2/26/2011 3/8/2011 3/18/2011 3/28/2011 4/7/2011 4/17/2011 Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price ZEE gas Cal Y+1 TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal2012 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal2012 Week Previous week % The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 2012 is EUR/MWh, which is 7% higher that at the beginning of During the last 30 days the price has decreased by 6.3%. Compared to the year to date average of EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.6% lower. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 7.27 EUR/MWh, which is 0.39 EUR/MWh higher compared to the beginning of the year, and 1.2 EUR/MWh less than the year to date average of 8.48 EUR/MWh. The premium has decreased by EUR/MWh during the last 30 days.

15 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Index 140 Coal, API N2 Week Previous week % EUAs 18.0 CO2 Week Previous week % Coal, API N2, 00 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne CO in EUR/tonne Coal rose on expected Chinese demand Coal prices rose 1.4% due to the dollar's rise and expectation of renewed Chinese buying interest, which could tighten the market globally. Trading was weak in Europe, where traders are struggling to place prompt Colombian cargoes. Traders said that the mood is still bearish in Europe and there are few buyers, mostly banks. Suppliers and utilities think that ARA prices will go lower in the near term unless demand picks up quickly from China, the only other viable market for this mostly low-grade Colombian coal. EUAs fell on weak trading European CO2 permits fell almost 2% during the week despite expected resistance to depreciation stated by traders one week before. Demand from utilities weakened and there is no much support from neither oil nor German power prices, which both slid during the week 20. In the secondary market for UN-backed carbon credits, prices fell in line with CO2 permits. Volumes were also low despite some traders taking positions on EUA-CER swaps.

16 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone US Eastern Month Ahead Rotterdam Month Ahead Russia Baltic EEX Month Ahead Russia Eastern China LEGEND Phisical trade Futures 4 5 Colombia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Richards Bay Month Ahead Kalimantan Indonesia Newcastle Australia Newcastle Australia - Japan China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Russia Eastern Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead Physical Trades Futures

17 Power Power Europe last 3 months Belgium Netherlands Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spain Italy Austria Hungary Czech Rep. Futures and spot fell Forward contracts fell by 0.7% in Germany and Belgium, by 1% in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and by 2.8% in the Nordic Pool. The contract rose only in U.K., where it gained 1.5% on the back of a firmer natural gas. Spot power were mixed, with less that 2% variations of the weekly average in all markets except the Nordic Pool, were the weekly average fell by 4%. Solar and wind power added supply in France and Germany. Germany's RWE utility group reported expectation-beating profit in the first quarter, a day after sector peer E.ON, citing improved market share in Germany and cost cutting in the UK.

18 Power Power Germany Power France DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld DE Cal2013 bsld FR Cal2013 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at.9 EUR/MWh, or 10.92% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 5.87 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.08 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.1 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal2012 bsld DE Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.30 DE Cal2013 bsld Week Previous week.85 Week Previous week.09 DE Spot Week 20 avg.11 Prev. week avg % -1.42% -0.17% -1.4% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at.8 EUR/MWh, or 9.52% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of.03 EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.85 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.36 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal2013 bsld is currently 1.05 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.45 FR Cal2013 bsld Week Previous week.35 Week Previous week.65 FR Spot Week 20 avg.43 Prev. week avg % +0.82% -0.8% +1.29% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

19 Power Power Correlations DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Brent oil DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Coal Index DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal DE Cal2012 bsld FR Cal2012 bsld EUA

20 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal2012 bsld BE Cal2013 bsld NL Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price NL Cal2013 bsld 56 Cal2012 price closed the week at.98 EUR/MWh, or 7.01% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.74 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.45 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.06 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld BE Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week. BE Cal2013 bsld Week Previous week. Week Previous week. BE Spot Week 20 avg.09 Prev. week avg % -1.14% -0.26% +0.74% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at.95 EUR/MWh, or 8.32% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.76 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.1 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal2013 bsld is currently 0.2 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld NL Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.55 NL Cal2013 bsld Week Previous week. Week Previous week.38 NL Spot Week 20 avg.24 Prev. week avg % -1.28% -0.9% -0.36% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

21 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Cal2012 bsld NP Cal2013 bsld NP Cal2012 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 7.54% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of 62. EUR/MWh, the current price is 2.56 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.26 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve UK Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week Week Previous week UK Spot Week 20 avg.30 Prev. week avg % -0.32% -0.18% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at 51 EUR/MWh, or 3.76% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 3.47 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.85 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve. The Cal2013 bsld is currently 1.95 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal2012 bsld NP Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week 52. NP Cal2013 bsld Week Previous week Week Previous week NP Spot Week 20 avg Prev. week avg % -1.22% +0.65% -4.11% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

22 Power Power Italy Power Spain EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld Cal2012 price closed the week at 72.4 EUR/MWh, or 2.33% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 1.07 EUR/MWh lower. The contract is 0.52 EUR/MWh lower than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some upward pressure on the forward curve IT CalY+1 bsld Week Previous week EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week Previous week IT Spot Week 20 avg Prev. week avg % -1.27% +0.33% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal2012 price closed the week at EUR/MWh, or 11.75% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 2011 average to date of EUR/MWh, the current price is 4.08 EUR/MWh higher. The contract is 0.83 EUR/MWh higher than the estimated EMP Cal2012 structural price, which suggests some downward pressure on the forward curve SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week Previous week 52. EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week Previous week 52. SP Spot Week 20 avg Prev. week avg % -0.34% +5.61% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep EMP Structural Price 2012 AT Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price 2012 HU Cal2012 bsld EMP Structural Price 2012 CZ Cal2012 bsld AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.30 Week Previous week.90 AT Spot Week 20 avg 61. Prev. week avg % -0.09% +0.64% HU Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.00 Week Previous week.89 HU Spot Week 20 avg Prev. week avg % +0.24% +3.62% CZ Cal2012 bsld Week Previous week.40 Week Previous week. CZ Spot Week 20 avg.47 Prev. week avg % -0.11% -0.88%

24 Power Current prices UK LEGEND Last quotation for Cal2012 bsld Last 20 days average Last quot. - Last 20 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain Belgium France Holland Italy Germany Austria Nordic Czech Rep Hungary Historical range 120 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

25 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads Spark Spread Spot DE Week 20 avg Prev. week avg Spark Spread Spot FR Week 20 avg Prev. week avg 10. Spark Spread Spot NL Week 20 avg Prev. week avg Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 20 avg 7.55 Prev. week avg 7.99 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 20 avg 5.38 Prev. week avg 4.12 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 20 avg 6.82 Prev. week avg Spark Spread Spot DE 0 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR Spark Spread Spot NL Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Spark Spread Cal 2012 DE Week Previous week 6.80 Spark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 7.55 Spark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week 5.65 Spark Spread 2011 DE Spark Spread 2011 FR Spark Spread 2011 NL z Clean Spark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week 0.14 Clean Spark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 0.89 Clean Spark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week Clean Spark Spread 2012 DE Clean Spark Spread 2012 FR Clean Spark Spread 2012 NL -3-3

26 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads Dark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week Dark Spread 2012 DE Dark Spread 2012 FR Dark Spread 2012 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity Clean Dark Spread 2012 DE Week Previous week 8.02 Clean Dark Spread 2012 FR Week Previous week 6.88 Clean Dark Spread 2012 NL Week Previous week 6.12 Clean Dark Spread 2012 DE Clean Dark Spread 2012 FR Clean Dark Spread 2012 NL Premiums 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Week % Previous week -1.90% BE/FR Week % Previous week -3.09% BE/NL Week % Previous week 0.05% DE/NL Week % Previous week 1.28% DE/BE Week 20 1.% Previous week 1.23% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR +0.39% +0.04% 0% +0.35% +0.35% -5% DE/FR

27 Currency Currency Rates 1. EUR/USD Week Previous week % 1.68 GBP/USD Week Previous week % EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/EUR Week Previous week % 8.05 EUR/NOK Week Previous week % GBP/EUR EUR/NOK