Weekly Report 17 June 2012 ENERGY STATISTICS 2012, WEEK 24

Transcription

1 Weekly Report Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 212, WEEK 24 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.

2 Notes Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

3 Overview Oil Worldwide Brent crude lost 1.9% during the week on thin trade as investors awaited crucial elections in Greece. Economic worries also prompted investors to limit exposure, after data showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity in May and U.S. consumer confidence fell in June to a six-month low. Natural Gas Natural gas prices for day-ahead delivery moved in a one euro-wide corridor that kept weekly averages stable compared to last week. Spot rose by less than 2% in Belgium and the Netherlands. Cal213 rose by half a percent in Belgium and fell by less than 1% in the Netherlands and Germany. CO2 EUA prices broke above 7 EUR/tonne, the highest level since May amid weakening coal prices and generous margins for electricity producers. High clean dark prompted CO2 buying by utilities. However, with coal correcting upwards, carbon surge could come to a halt soon. Europe Distillates Gas oil gained.7%, while Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA was 2.8% up. Germans have begun restocking their heating oil tanks. The lower price for gasoil has attracted consumers back into the market. Stronger premiums in northwest Europe versus Mediterranean have attracted arbitrage cargoes. Coal Coal gained.8%, not enough to offset earlier losses that brought prices under USD/tonne. Coal priced in the increase of gas prices, as well as the fall in the euro, but it is still looking weak overall. Very few South African cargoes have been sold into Europe in the past week. Electricity Calendar 213 prices for electricity were bearish across Europe, posting 1% falls in Belgium and Germany, and a larger 2% fall in France. Curves were flatter in U.K. and the Netherlands. Electricity spot prices were low during last week, but are expected to increase as demand resumes.

4 Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas 212 (NBP) Dutch gas 212 (TTF) German gas 212 (BUD) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 212 French power 212 Belgian power 212 Dutch power 212 UK power 212 Nordic power 212 Italian power 212 Iberian power 212 Overview of main energy products in last days 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15%

5 Oil Oil Price Brent Oil Week 24 97,61 Previous week 99, -1,86% WTI Brent in USD/tonne Gasoil Week ,5 Previous week 845, ,7% in USD/tonne Brent crude price has fallen by 9,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 8,9% during the last calendar days. Compared to the 212 average to date (115,2 USD/bbl) the current price is 15,3% lower. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at USD/bbl, or 7,8% lower than the actual price, which suggests some downward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has fallen by 15% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 8,1% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (99,5 USD/bbl) the current price is 15,6% lower. Heavy fuel oil price has fallen by 5,9% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 5,4% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (663,5 USD/bbl) the current price is 12,7% lower. Gas oil price has fallen by 7,8% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 6,2% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (968,7 USD/bbl) the current price is 12,1% lower. Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week Previous week 563, ,75% in USD/tonne Crude falls in thin trade ahead of Greek elections Brent crude lost 1.9% during the week on thin trade as investors awaited crucial elections in Greece. Economic worries also prompted investors to limit exposure, after data showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity in May and U.S. consumer confidence fell in June to a six-month low. OPEC decided to hold its output target steady at million barrels per day for the second half of the year, in order to keep pressure on the supply side. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions by 2,542, to 1,8. The euro rose slightly against the dollar, supported by expectations that central banks would counteract any negative results from the Greek elections. U.S. stocks posted a second straight week of gains. Gas oil gained.7%, while Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA was 2.8% up. Germans have begun restocking their heating oil tanks. The lower price for gasoil has attracted consumers back into the market. The stronger premiums in northwest Europe versus those in the Mediterranean have also attracted more arbitrage cargoes.

6 Focus German energy retail trends Germany's retail electricity prices continue to rise, according to latest data from major south-western utility EnBW. The German retail market encompasses 4 million households supplied by 1, power companies and 7 gas companies. Householders' power consumption makes up 26% of total German electricity use. POWER PRICE CHANGES EnBW, Germany's third-largest utility, said it will hike retail power prices by 2.6% from August after keeping prices stable for 18 months. The average price per kilowatt hour will go up by 1.8 cents to euro cents. A three-person household consuming 2, kwh/year will pay 1.75 EUR more per month, it said. Toptarif, a portal that monitors prices said 42 companies had raised power prices by an average 3.5% in the first four months of the year, according to its research. It also said another firms raised prices by around 4.9% on average in May and June. Energy industry group BDEW said since liberalization, 27.7% of households have changed their power supplier. Some 17.6% of households have changed their gas supplier. Power switches have increased by 1.9% since last October and gas switches by 3.5%. E.ON said it will raise prices at 6 regional distribution units by an average 5% from June. This will affect 6 million households. A total of 126 firms hiked prices in April or would raise them in May by an average 3.7%, according to previous announcements by internet portals. Some 2 companies had previously been known to raise prices in the first few months of the year. RWE has said it would leave prices unchanged until the middle of the year. Power companies say the increases stem from higher procurement prices due to a premium paid for green energy and higher transmission grid usage fees. GAS PRICE CHANGES EnBW said it would leave August gas prices stable overall and reduce the number of retail products on offer with the aim of creating incentives to reduce consumption. It said it would charge more for its basic gas provision and encourage big users to save on the usage-based element of the bill. Two thirds of its customers heat their homes with gas and will see prices drop. A smaller group who only use gas for cooking, would see prices rise. E.ON in April said it is not planning any price increases. Portal Verivox, said annual gas supply costs for a household using 2, kilowatt hours in April stood at 1,295 EUR, which was over 6% more than payable a year ago. Some 83 gas companies had raised January and February retail price hikes by an average 8.4%. Suppliers cited as a reason rising crude oil prices, to which the bulk of gas procurement prices are still index-linked with a time lag of around six months. Source: Reuters

7 Oil Structural Price EMP Structural price EMP Structural price+speculation Oil in USD/bbl Oil high despite lower fundamentals, speculation is important The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural decrease of fundamentals. However, speculators and fears of supply disruptions in Arab world support prices above USD/bbl. There is a high correlation with financial indicators (see previous page for the correlation with DOW JONES). Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.

8 Oil Stocks Stock EIA 211 Week ,44 Previous week 384,44 % Stock EIA crude range (24-211) 2 2 Stock ARA HFO 211 Week Previous week 2328 Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-211) -2,36% 2 1 Stock EIA Stock ARA HFO 212 in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 Stock ARA GOL 211 Week Previous week ,72% Stock ARA Gasoline 211 Week Previous week 724-4% Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-211) Stock ARA GOL Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-211) Stock ARA Gasoline 212 in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have risen by,5% during the last days, and are now 26,9% above the median (2,98 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have fallen by 5,1% during the last days, and are now 12,7% above the median (216,5 mln b ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 27,3% during the last days, and are now 16,2% above the median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have risen by,6% during the last days, and are now 16,5% under the median (1989 mln bbl).

9 Oil Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of April 212. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 2,15 +,5 Other North Sea,23 -,4 Russia 1,1 -,24 Canada 3,83 +,22 UK (offshore) 1,24 +,1 Other FSU/ East. Europe,25 +,2 Azerbaijan 1,1 +,1 Turkmenistan,24 +,2 Kazakhstan 1,8 +,14 Mexico 2,92 -,8 U.S. ( States) 1,58 +,73 Colombia,95 +,3 Ecuador, -,2 Other Central and S. America,45 -,1 Venezuela 2,2, Brazil 2,77 +,13 Argentina,78 +,9 Nigeria 2,2 +,1 Algeria 1,27, Libya 1, +1,1 Eq. Guinea,34 +,4 Gabon,25 +,4 Angola 1,8 +,15 Egypt,67 -,1 Sudan,11 -,31 Iraq 2, +,2 Saudi Arabia 9,8 +,9 UAE 2, -,1 Iran 3, -,1 Kuwait 2,45 -,5 Qatar,85, Yemen,18 +,5 Oman,88 +,1 India,94 -,1 Vietnam,35 +,3 China 4,36 +,4 Indonesia - - Malaysia,64 +,2 Australia,55 +,9 Syria,23 -,15 Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 36,67 41,7 17,34 13,32 8,85 4,55 4,95 2,27 1,33 +2,27 +1,14 +,88 -,4 +,15 -,1 +,24 -,26 -,1

10 end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil Global Demand and Supply, Inventories a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 Demand Supply Supply/Demand a-9 m-9 j-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,99,98,97,96, ratio in days

11 Oil Correlations ,29 1,28 1,27 1,26 1,25 1,24 1,23 1,22 1,21 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD oil in USD/bbl Brent DOW JONES EUR/USD Week 24 1,2542 Previous week 1,2519 +,18% DOW JONES Week ,17 Previous week 12554,2 +1,69% oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl SPECULATIVE NET POSITION Week Previous week ,88% EIA CRUDE STOCK Week ,438 Previous week 384,74 -,7% EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen by 3,2% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 1,9% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (1,9) the current rate is 3,6% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by 4,5% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 3,2% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (1284,6) the current index is,3% lower. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has fallen by 9,5% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 29,1% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (195567) the current level is 33,1% lower. EIA crude stock level has risen by 16,6% since the beginning of 212, and increased by,5% during the last days. Compared to the 212 average (357,8515 mln bbl) the current level is 7,4% higher.

12 Natural Gas Natural Gas Price 27, , 24 26,5 26, 25,5 25, Gas ZEE Cal+1 Gas TTF Cal Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA 24, , 22 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Oversupplied systems Natural gas prices for day-ahead delivery moved in a one euro-wide corridor that kept weekly averages stable compared to last week. Spot rose by less than 2% in Belgium and the Netherlands, and finished in the negative territory in Germany and France. Demand was low and supplies from Norway kept the systems oversupplied. On the other side, low flows of the BBL pipeline connecting Britain and the Netherlands kept some upward pressure in continental markets. On the curve, Cal213 rose by half a percent in Belgium and fell by less than 1% in the Netherlands and Germany. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 213 Week 24 26,22 Previous week 26,9 Gas TTF 213 Week 24 25, Previous week 25,65 Gas NBP 213 Week 24 26,37 Previous week 26,16 Gas BUNDE 213 Week 24 25,65 Previous week 25,85 Gas SPAIN 213 Week 24 27,12 Previous week 27,6 +,% -,58% +,83% -,77% -1,73% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 24 avg 23,92 Prev.week avg 23,51 Gas TTF DA Week 24 avg 23,95 Prev.week avg 23,64 Gas NBP DA Week 24 avg 23,35 Prev.week avg 23,29 Gas BUNDE DA Week 24 avg 23,96 Prev.week avg 23,99 Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 24 avg 23,86 Prev.week avg 24,22 +1,73% +1,34% +,25% -,11% -1,%

13 Natural Gas Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent Brent3 213 Brent3 213 Brent Brent in EUR/bbl LFO3 213 LFO LFO LFO3 213 LFO in EUR/tonne GOL3 212 GOL GOL GOL3 212 GOL in EUR/tonne 3 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 3 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. Brent3 213 Week 24 77,15 Previous week 78,23 Brent Week 24 77,26 Previous week 78,36 Brent Week 24 77,28 Previous week 78,43 Brent3 213 Week 24 74,54 Previous week 75,65 Brent Week 24 76,91 Previous week 77,98 GOL3 213 Week ,23 Previous week 671,13 GOL Week ,59 Previous week 671,15 GOL Week ,1 Previous week 671,28 GOL3 213 Week ,2 Previous week 671,27 GOL Week 24 6,56 Previous week 671, LFO3 213 Week ,89 Previous week 432,83 LFO Week ,31 Previous week 433,91 LFO Week ,38 Previous week 434,58 LFO3 213 Week ,44 Previous week 435,31 LFO Week ,61 Previous week 4,93-1,38% -1,41% -1,46% -1,% -1,37% +,1% +,6% +,12% +,13% -,6% +,7% +,78% +,87% +,94% +,62%

14 in EUR/MWh Natural Gas Oil Linked Natural Gas Price TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal212 Week 24 33,83 Previous week 33,76 +,22% The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 212 is 33,83 EUR/MWh, which is 1% lower that at the beginning of 212. During the last days the price has decreased by 4,3%. Compared to the year to date average of 36,43 EUR/MWh, the current price is 7,1% lower. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 8,33 EUR/MWh, which is 2, EUR/MWh lower compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,51 EUR/MWh less than the year to date average of 9,84 EUR/MWh. The premium has decreased by 13,68 EUR/MWh during the last days.

15 in USD/tonne Coal CO2 Coal Index 14 Coal, API N2 Week 24 96,75 Previous week 96, +,78% EUAs 9, CO2 Week 24 7,32 Previous week 6,69 +9,41% 12 8,5 8, Coal, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 7,5 7, 6,5 6, CO2 92 5,5 5, in EUR/tonne Coal corrects slightly upward Coal gained.8%, not enough to offset earlier losses that brought prices under USD/tonne. Coal priced in the increase of gas prices, as well as the fall in the euro, but it is still looking weak overall. Very few South African cargoes have been sold into Europe in the past week. Coal prices have slumped from over 12 USD/tonne in Q4 as increasing supplies from almost every exporting country overwhelmed demand to the point where China cannot physically take in any more. China is already forecast to have a record year of coal imports. EUAs gain almost 1% EUA prices broke above 7 EUR/tonne, the highest level since May amid weakening coal prices and generous margins for electricity producers. High clean dark spreads the profit margin for power generators after paying for coal and carbon permits continued to prompt CO2 buying by utilities. Traders say that whether prices can hold at present levels depends on increasing financial stress in Italy and Spain and a possible Greek exit from the euro zone. Also, with coal correcting upwards, carbon surge could come to a halt soon.

16 Coal Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead 85,25 Russia Baltic 8, LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead 85,68 Russia Eastern,25 China 14,23 Colombia 78,8 Richard Bay South Africa 86,8 Maputo South Africa 87,57 Richards Bay Month Ahead 83,85 Kalimantan Indonesia 68,5 Newcastle Australia 88,85 Newcastle Australia - Japan 115, China Kalimantan Indonesia Richard Bay South Africa Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead 6 Russia Eastern 76 Physical Trades Futures

17 12,53 15,25 14,24 13,28 11,79 1, ,86 26,15 27,4 26,66 24,85 21, Energy Forecast Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Natural Gas U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 CO2 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Heavy Fuel Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Natural Gas Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 EUR/USD Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Gasoil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Coal Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

18 Power Power Europe last 3 months 8 Belgium Netherlands Germany Flat on the curve, increased spot France Great Britain Nordic Pool Spot prices for electricity were up in weekly averages, on rainier weather and lower renewable generation. However, forecasts for the next week showed better supplies, including hydropower fuelled by more rain, and a rise in nuclear power availability in France and Germany. Spot prices will also be dragged down by a sunnier weather and higher German solar output. In the forward market prices fell to 19-month lows in intra-week trading, but recovered soon on higher oil prices and an unexpectedly high increase of carbon allowances. At the end of the week, Cal213 closed notches higher compared to the previous week in Belgium and finished rather flat in Germany, France and the Netherlands. Spain Italy Austria

19 Power Power Germany Power France 51 52, EMP Structural Price Cal+1 DE Cal+1 bsld DE Cal+2 bsld 51,5 51,,5,,5,,5 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 FR Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+2 bsld,,5 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,5 EUR/MWh, or 9,68% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,14 EUR/MWh, the current price is 6,4% lower. DE Cal+1 bsld The contract is,46 EUR/MWh Week 24,5 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,1 Cal213 structural price, which DE Cal+2 bsld Week 24,65 suggests some upward pressure Previous week,6 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,6 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 24,51 Previous week, DE Spot Week 24 avg 38,36 Prev. week avg 35,73 -,1% +,1% +,8% +7,37% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,2 EUR/MWh, or 1,6% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,37 EUR/MWh, the current price is 4,23% lower. FR Cal+1 bsld The contract is,46 EUR/MWh Week 24,2 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week, Cal213 structural price, which FR Cal+2 bsld Week 24,4 suggests some upward pressure Previous week,4 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently 1,2 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 24,66 Previous week,78 FR Spot Week 24 avg 37,68 Prev. week avg 35,18 -,2% % -,22% +7,9% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh

20 Power Power Correlations DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Brent oil DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Coal Index ,6 51 7, ,4 26, ,8 25,6 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld 51 7,2 7 6,8 6,6 DE Cal+1 bsld 25,4 25, ,8 Zeebrugge gas Cal+1 6,4 6,2 6 FR Cal+1 bsld EUA 46 24,6 46 5,8

21 Power Power Belgium Power Netherlands BE Cal+1 bsld BE Cal+2 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal EMP Structural Price Cal+1 NL Cal+1 bsld NL Cal+2 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,27 EUR/MWh, or 5,96% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of,54 EUR/MWh, the current price is 4,% lower. BE Cal+1 bsld The contract is,43 EUR/MWh Week 24,27 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,23 Cal213 structural price, which BE Cal+2 bsld Week 24,52 suggests some upward pressure Previous week,33 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently 1,25 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 24, Previous week,58 BE Spot Week 24 avg 37,68 Prev. week avg 35,46 +,8% +,38% +,25% +6,26% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,5 EUR/MWh, or 3,75% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,87 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,51% lower. NL Cal+1 bsld The contract is,25 EUR/MWh Week 24,5 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,15 Cal213 structural price, which NL Cal+2 bsld Week 24, suggests some upward pressure Previous week,45 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,55 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 24, Previous week,21 NL Spot Week 24 avg 42,46 Prev. week avg 41,92 -,19% +,1% +,18% +1,29% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh

22 Power Power UK Power Nordic Pool UK Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal NP Cal+2 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 NP Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 61,1 EUR/MWh, or 8,57% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 59,89 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,2% higher. The contract is 8,36 EUR/MWh UK Cal+1 bsld Week 24 61,1 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 6,33 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Cal+1 suggests some downward Week 24 6,97 Previous week 6,69 pressure on the forward curve. UK Spot Week 24 avg 52,74 Prev. week avg 51,76 +1,28% +,% +1,88% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 36,7 EUR/MWh, or 11,57% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 39, EUR/MWh, the current price is 7,6% lower. NP Cal+1 bsld The contract is,14 EUR/MWh Week 24 36, lower than the estimated EMP Previous week 36, Cal213 structural price, which NP Cal+2 bsld Week 24 37,45 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 37,75 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,75 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld Week 24 36,84 Previous week 36,75 NP Spot Week 24 avg 23,53 Prev. week avg 24,2 +,54% -,79% +,24% -2,5% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh

23 Power Power Italy Power Spain 74 51, EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld,5,,5,,5 EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld 69 69,,5 68, in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,15 EUR/MWh, or 18,43% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 75,54 EUR/MWh, the current price is 7,13% lower. IT CalY+1 bsld The contract is 2,15 EUR/MWh Week 24,15 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,45 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week 24,71 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 71,8 on the forward curve. IT Spot Week 24 avg 72, Prev. week avg 75, -,42% -,52% -4,22% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at,75 EUR/MWh, or 4,33% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,52 EUR/MWh, the current price is 3,43% lower. SP Cal Y+1 bsld The contract is 4,21 EUR/MWh Week 24,75 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week,75 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week 24, suggests some upward pressure Previous week,17 on the forward curve. SP Spot Week 24 avg 53,96 Prev. week avg 53,72 % +,64% +,45% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh

24 Power Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 AT Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 HU Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh AT Spot in EUR/ MWh HU Spot in EUR/ MWh CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal+1 bsld Week 24,5 Previous week,1 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 24,4 Previous week, AT Spot Week 24 avg 4,34 Prev. week avg 35,62 -,1% -,13% +13,23% HU Cal+1 bsld Week 24 33,59 Previous week 28,31 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 24 39, Previous week 41,24 HU Spot Week 24 avg 39,55 Prev. week avg 39,28 +18,65% -3,24% +,69% CZ Cal+1 bsld Week 24 46,75 Previous week,2 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 24,88 Previous week, CZ Spot Week 24 avg 4,34 Prev. week avg 35,62-4,97% +,78% +13,23%

25 Power Current prices UK 61,1 6,6, LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain,75,8 -,5 Belgium,27,54 -,27 France,2,77 -,57 Holland,5,31 -,26 Italy,15,68 -,53 Germany,5,35 -, Austria,5,35 -, Nordic 36, 36,62,8 Czech Rep. 46,75,79-2,4 Hungary 33,59 39,76-6,17 Historical range Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK

26 Power Statistics Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads Spark Spread Spot DE Week 24 avg -9,66 Prev. week avg -12,36 Spark Spread Spot FR Week 24 avg -1,5 Prev. week avg -13,59 Spark Spread Spot NL Week 24 avg -4,1 Prev. week avg -7, Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 24 avg -12,17 Prev. week avg -14,81 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 24 avg -12,57 Prev. week avg -16,4 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 24 avg -6,53 Prev. week avg -1,35-15 Spark Spread Spot DE -15 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE -2 Spark Spread Spot FR -2 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR -25 Spark Spread Spot NL -25 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL - -, -,5-1, -1,5-2, -2,5-3, -3,5 Spark Spread Cal 212 DE Week 24-3,45 Previous week -3, Spark Spread 212 FR Week 24-1,42 Previous week -2, Spark Spread 212 NL Week 24 -,57 Previous week -1,15 Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week 24-6,4 Previous week -6, Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week 24-4,36 Previous week -4, Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week 24-3,52 Previous week -3,85 Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL -4, -7

27 Power Statistics Dark and Clean Dark Spreads 19,5 19, 18,5 18, 17,5 17, 16,5 16, 15,5 15, Dark Spread 212 DE Week 24 16,73 Previous week 16,67 Dark Spread 212 FR Week 24 17,88 Previous week 17,87 Dark Spread 212 NL Week 24 18,73 Previous week 18,71 Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity. 13, 12,5 12, 11,5 11, 1,5 1, 9,5 9, 8,5 8, Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week 24 1, Previous week 11,46 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week 24 9,75 Previous week 1,27 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week 24 11,75 Previous week 12,31 Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Premiums 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Week 24-2,34% Previous week -2,43% BE/FR Week 24-1,89% Previous week -2,17% BE/NL Week 24-3,56% Previous week -3,83% DE/NL Week 24-4,% Previous week -4,9% DE/BE Week 24 -,46% Previous week -,27% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR +,9% +,28% +,27% +,9% -,18% -5% DE/FR

28 Power Forecast Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Power Netherlands Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Spain Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power France Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Italy Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul Jan-21 Jul Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Belgium Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Power Nord Pool Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.

29 Currency Currency Rates 1,36 1,34 1,32 1, 1,28 1,26 1,24 1,22 1,2 1,18 1,16 EUR/USD Week 24 1,2542 Previous week 1,2519 +,18% EUR/USD 1,65 1,64 1,63 1,62 1,61 1,6 1,59 1,58 1,57 1,56 1,55 1,54 1,53 1,52 1,51 1, 1, 1, 1, GBP/USD Week 24 1,572 Previous week 1,56 +1,57% GBP/USD 1,27 1,26 1,25 GBP/EUR EUR/NOK Week 24 1, ,39% 7,66 Week 24 7,524 -,99% Previous week 1,2362 Previous week 7,5995 7,64 7,62 1,24 7,6 1,23 1,22 1,21 GBP/EUR 7,58 7,56 7,54 7,52 EUR/NOK 1,2 7,