Global Overview of Middle Distillates Supply and Demand ICE Market Forum Rotterdam, November 2012
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1 Global Overview of Middle Distillates Supply and Demand ICE Market Forum Rotterdam, November 2012
2 About Petromatrix Based in Switzerland (city of Zug) Publishes a daily newsletter on oil markets Mix of fundamentals, technicals, and analysis of investment flows Subscription basis Free trial: info@petromatrix.com mbpd = 000 b/d
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4 World Oil Demand Y-O-Y Growth myn b/d (source: IEA)
5 World Oil Demand 1.8 IEA estimate of 2012 Demand Growth (myn b/d)
6 World Oil Demand IEA, mbpd 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 OECD NON-OECD
7 World Oil Non-OECD Demand IEA, mbpd 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 East of Suez West of Suez
8 2012 Demand Growth by Products mbpd Resid Naphtha Others Jet Gasoline Distillates -200
9 Share of Diesel demand Source: OPEC 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Pacific Latam Mideast Others Other Asia China Nth Am Europe
10 West of Suez
11 Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000
12 Europe Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoil
13 Europe Driving Fuels Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000
14 Europe Driving fuel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Diesel Gasoline
15 Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45%
16 Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% France Germany Spain Switzerland
17 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Europe % Diesel of Driving Fuels vs Distillates refinery yields (IEA) Diesel share of driving fuel Distillates yield
18 Europe Refinery runs (IEA, mbpd) 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000
19 Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 1,700 Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY mbpd 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20 Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in SPA/POR/ITA/TKY % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
21 Europe Diesel Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA) 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL mbpd 1,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
22 Europe Diesel Demand % (source: IEA) 15% Diesel dmd in FRA/GER/UK/NL % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
23 Demand vs prev year Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Mogas Diesel Germany -2.4% 3.8% -8.1% -2.0% France -0.6% 5.6% -5.7% -1.3% -11.9% -5.0% UK -5.6% 0.2% -3.8% 7.0% Italy -6.7% -5.5% -10.1% -9.7% -18.2% -15.6% Spain -8.5% -6.7% -6.0% -5.7% -14.0% -13.5%
24 30 Unemployment % by EU country NL DE SE UK PL IT FR PT GR ES
25
26 Europe net Distillates imports (IEA, mbpd) 1, Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan Med NWE
27 Spain net Distillates imports
28 Europe net Distillates imports (IEA,k MT) FSU US Asia
29 US Distillates Demand 000 b/d (source: IEA)
30 US Distillates Demand mbpd(source: IEA) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Diesel Other Gasoil
31 Nth Atlantic Basin Distillates Demand mb/d (source: IEA) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, USA Diesel Europe Diesel USA Gasoil Europe Gasoil
32 US & EUR % Diesel of Driving Fuels 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Europe USA
33 US & Europe Refinery runs (IEA,mbpd) 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 Europe USA
34 US Distillates S&D (mbpd) 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 Supply Demand
35 US Products exports (DOE,mbpd) 1,200 1, Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Distillates Gasoline
36 US Distillates exports (DOE,mbpd) Europe Latin America
37 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Floating Storage Distillates Distillate Floating Storage US onshore Distillate Stocks March 2008
38 US Midwest refinery economics
39 US, cheapest crude at market price
40 Latam Distillates demand (JODI, mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200
41 Latam Distillates demand & imports (JODI,mbpd) Arg/Braz/Chi/Ecua/Mex/Per/Venz) 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1, Demand (LH) Imports (RH)
42 East of Suez
43 Asia Distillates demand (JODI,mbpd) (China/India/Jap/Skor/Thai) 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 4,700 4,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
44 China Internal Retail Prices Yuan/MT 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 Gasoline Diesel 5,500 5,000
45 China Passenger Car Sales
46 250 Imports of Distillates (JODI, IEA, 000 b/d) Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China Switzerland
47 China refinery runs (mbpd) 10,200 9,700 9,200 8,700 8,200 7,700 7,200 6,700 6,200 5,700 5,200 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
48 China refinery runs vs year ago (mbpd) 800 China crude oil refinery runs vs previous year (mbpd) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct
49 Refinery runs (mbpd) 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Europe China+India
50 600 Exports of Distillates (JODI, mbpd) Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 China India
51 Saudi Arabia Distillates demand ( JODI,mbpd) Demand Imports
52 Large Refinery expansion in Middle East next two years (mbpd) Saudi Jubail End 2012 UAE Ruwais end 2013 Saudi Yanbu end 2014
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