ARA TT Market Projections
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1 StocExpo Rotterdam Conference 2017 ARA TT Market Projections
2 Tank Terminal Market Research ir. Patrick Kulsen, MSc. B. Mail: Managing PJK International PortStorage Group (Tankterminals.com) PJK International & PortStorage Group merged! Increased focus on global Tank Terminal sector
3 PJK International: PJK International (1) Independent market research company specialized in: Oil & Petchem markets Focus on Europe Intelligent commercial decisions We combine: data-driven approach on-the-ground intelligence
4 PortStorage Group (1) Owner of TankTerminals.com platform: - Global database of tank terminals - Tank terminal sector news & events - Knowledge bank - Weekly newsletter
5 Contents 1. Intro: Tank Terminal market model 2. Important themes for NWE TT markets 3. Impact on market fundamentals 4. Outlook TT sector: Capacity developments Storage rates Profitability
6 Analysis Framework (1) TT Market model: Today s focus
7 Analysis Framework (2) Analysis of market fundamentals:
8 Analysis Framework (3) Analysis of market fundamentals / Logistics: Oil products demand Per product / grade: Trade flows Refinery output Regional imbalances
9 Important themes (1) Main themes currently driving TT market dynamics: Nov. 30 th 2016 price regime switch?
10 Important themes (2) Main themes currently driving TT market dynamics: Other themes: Climate policy & renewables Bunker fuel spec change Fuel oil transit flow
11 price regime switch vs. forward curve Price regime switch change from contango to backwardation? High oil prices low oil prices Backwardation OPEC / Russia deal impact Contango
12 price regime switch vs. forward curve Price regime switch change from contango to backwardation? Date: Oct. 26 th 2016 backwardation Date: Mar. 23 th 2017
13 Level [Mb] Outlook: Brent Forward curves (5) Flat forward curve? Balance global supply / demand, Crude Implied stock change (RH) Date
14 Outlook: Brent Forward curves (6)? Stable price outlook? Source: IEA OMR Feb. 2017? Balanced?
15 Impact on TT sector (1) Forward curve flat or in backwardation: Balanced / tighter market for oil products Jet-kerosene Gasoil/diesel Fuel oil }Stable / lower stocks, less need for capacity Less incentive to store and trade products product s value is stable or drops as time goes by Less opportunity to profit by storing oil products } Lower rates??
16 Demand outlook Medium term Long term Shape forward curve Logistics & imbalances
17 Demand outlook: Logistics (1) Oil products demand Trade flows Refinery output Regional imbalances
18 Demand outlook: Logistics (2) Change in demand 1 for oil products: PJK forecasts NW Europe / 2035: change 20 change 35 total oil products - -- petchem feedstock 2 -/+ -/+ total fuels fuels excl. jet-kero - -- Jet-kero Relative to NW Europe: BENELUX + FR + GER + CH 3 Petchem feedstocks: LPG/Ethane, naphtha 4 total fuels: gasoline, jet-kerosene, diesel, fuel oil
19 Demand outlook: Logistics (3) ARA/NWE refining production outlook : Scenarios: 1. Good: 2. Bad: 3. Ugly: no refineries will close in ARA, high cap. utilization (2015: reference year) Small refinery closes in ARA: -90kb/d, below normal cap. utilization ( : reference year) Large refinery closes in ARA: -400kb/d, normal cap. utilization ( : reference year) Announced upgrades will go ahead Total Antwerp (HCU 20kbbl/d, planned start of unit: ) Exxon Botlek (HCU capacity expansion: from 50 to 70kbbl/d, planned start of unit: 2018) Exxon Antwerp (delayed coker unit: heavy residual oil diesel, gasoline; planned start of unit: 2018) Shell Pernis (SDU)
20 Demand outlook: Logistics (4) NWE refinery output change: change [%] product Good Bad Ugly LPG 3% -7% -11% naphtha 5% -5% -10% gasoline 4% 2% -5% Jet-kero 1% -6% -13% gasoil 2% -9% -15% fuel oil -23% -26% -31% Output generally decreases from good, to bad and ugly Fuel oil output decreases most Middle distillate (jet-kero + gasoil) output increases most
21 Demand outlook: Logistics (5) NW European S/D imbalances 2020: Light ends imbalances increase LPG/naphtha: more imports (except for naphtha in bad/ugly scenario) Gasoline: more export Middle distillates imbalances increase more imports Fuel oil imbalances increase more exports change imbalance 2020 current S/D balance Good Bad Ugly LPG net-importer 126% 144% 150% naphtha net-importer 115% 46% -10% gasoline net-exporter 138% 131% 109% Increased imbalances across the barrel kerosene net-importer 125% 160% 196% gasoil net-importer 13298% 52394% 77654% fuel oil net-exporter 182% 167% 147% Total oil products 154% 184% 196%
22 Demand outlook: Logistics (6) NW European major trade flows: Gasoline sinks: Growth in WAF and Far-East Asia North American import demand seasonal & uncertain Diesel sources: USA, Russia, Middle East major oversupply! No big changes Fuel oil transit flow: Russia fuel tax increase + upgrades may limit transit volumes IMO 2020: significant drop in fuel oil demand expected
23 ARA Tank storage Outlook (1) effect Demand drivers: Logistics Oil products demand in Europe will decrease Current refinery run rates are still okay oversupply European gasoil/diesel deficit will increase European gasoline surplus will increase Rotterdam fuel oil bunker market will shrink (IMO 2020) Russian/Far-East fuel oil flow is threatened by: Russian refinery upgrades Russian fuel oil export tax break ends in 2017 IMO 2020 regulations < 0.5% Sulphur in fuel oil effect Demand drivers: Forward curve Contango may switch to backwardation in 2H17
24 TT capacity [cbm] ARA Tank storage Outlook (2) ARA Capacity additions Between : Expansions: Oil & Petchem 2017 and beyond: ~ +2 to +8% Source: Tank Terminals.com; PJK research Tank Terminal Capacity in (Z)ARA(G) Rotterdam Antwerp Amsterdam Zeeland + Ghent total (Z)ARA(G) Storage rates: have decreased somewhat from 2015/2016 high s Source: PJK research
25 ARA Tank storage Outlook (3) Outlook sector for 2017/2018:
26 Long term outlook: ARA Tank storage Outlook (4) Summary ARA Tank Terminal Sector study Oil-products Send to:
27 More information: Visit PJK website For data, analysis and consultancy: For tank terminal data and news:
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