Recent Developments in EU Refining and Product Supply. EU Refining Forum, 12 April 2013
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1 Recent Developments in EU Refining and Product Supply EU Refining Forum, 12 April 2013 OECD/IEA 2012
2 EU refinery closures to date mb/d Refinery Closure CZ FR GE IT UK 15 refineries shut-down Combined idled capacity 1.7 mb/d Capacity declined by 8% Utilisation rates of many others significantly reduced
3 EU throughputs at a new low in 1Q13 mb/d Global Refining Crude Throughput 71 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Average est. mb/d OECD Europe Crude Throughput 11.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Average est OECD Europe runs hit longtime low of 11.4 mb/d in 1Q13. Planned maintenance kb/d Europe Refining Capacity Economically-driven shutdowns Q2010 1Q2012 1Q2014 1Q2016 1Q2018 Capacity Demand Crude Runs
4 EU in context: capacity attrition bucks the global trend mb/d CDU Additions vs. Oil Product Demand Growth World Demand Capacity Additions mb/d Cumulative Demand Growth and Sources of Supply GTL/CTL NGL transfers Direct crude burn Biofuels Refinery Intake Processing Gains From 2013 onwards, planned additions again surpass demand growth Reverses 3-year decline in refining capacity surplus More and more supply bypasses the refining process: Biofuels NGLs GTLs Direct crude burn etc.
5 Non-OECD capacity in expansion spurt accounting for all of global growth Crude Distillation Additions OECD China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD Regional Share of CDU Expansions Latin America 6% Middle East 22% Other 17% Other Asia 18% China 37% Investments set to add: 7.5 mb/d of net crude distillation capacity by mb/d of upgrading capacity 5.4 mb/d of de-sulphurisation capacity
6 OECD capacity contracts 1.2 mb/d CDU capacity shut in 2012, 0.8 mb/d in 2011 mb/d OECD Refinery Closures North America Europe Pacific Aruba mb/d Cumulative European Refinery Shutdowns France Germany Italy UK Total RHS Since 2008, 4 mb/d of OECD capacity shut/committed to shut kb/d capacity closed in Aruba mb/d in Europe (500 kb/d in 2011, 500 kb/d in 2012) N. American restructuring in US East Coast, VI. Additional 1.5 mb/d net shutdowns by Japanese consolidates further towards 2014 to comply with METI ordinance, Fukushima effect fades
7 More EU refining capacity at risk 90% Refinery Utilisation Rates 85% 80% 75% 70% 1Q06 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 OECD Non-OECD World OECD utilisation rates to fall again in the absence of further shutdowns/delays/cancellations Incremental 4.4 mb/d crude capacity at risk to maintain pre-crisis utilisation rates Most at-risk capacity in Europe
8 Europe s Refining Industry Country Positioning Average Complexity Factor IT European Refining Configuration Country Position vs. Average SK HU ES FI PL UK CZ SE NL GR PT BE TR NO DK Over Capacity EU Average Under Capacity AT DE FR Total Products Demand / Refining Capacity IE SW Complex Simple EU Average On Average Europe is in slight over capacity comparing with 2012 demand 2/3 of countries are in over capacity position compared with their local demand 1/3 of countries are both in over capacity position and have low complexity index
9 Europe s Refining Industry Country Positioning Middle Distillates (Kero. + Diesel/Gasoil) Average Complexity Factor 12 European Refining Configuration Country Position vs. Average (Middle Distillates) SK EU Average IT NL SE HU GR BE PT NO FI ES PL CZ UK TR DK DE FR AT EU Average IE SW Middle Distillates Demand / Refining Capacity
10 Europe s Refining Industry Country Positioning Light Oils (gasoline + naphtha) Average Complexity Factor 12 European Refining Configuration Country Position vs. Average (Gasoline + Naphtha) SK HU FI CZ IT ES PL UK SE BE FR TR GR NL PT DK AT NO IE DE SW EU Average Total Products Demand / Refining Capacity
11 Europe in the eye of the storm A perfect storm? Vanishing demand In Europe itself In its export markets USEC Latin America (USGC, India competition) High crude prices North Sea in decline North Africa in turmoil High energy costs 60% of refining costs v. 20% in N. America Antiquated, uncompetitive plants Rapid growth of merchant capacity elsewhere Rise of refining mega-hubs Vanishing VGO Europe capacity closing faster than demand Import dependence on the rise
12 OECD Europe oil demand Kb/d Total Products
13 OECD Europe oil demand by product Kb/d 5000 Import dependence varies greatly by product Diesel Resid Other gasoil Gasoline LPG and Ethane Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet and Kerosene Diesel Other Gasoil Residual Fuels Other Products
14 Vanishing VGO Premium VGO 0.5 % versus Brent $/bbl VGO (feedstock for cracking capacity) getting more expensive due to: - Closure of European VDU capacities - Lower FSU VGO exports to Europe as FSU is embarking on large upgrading program
15 Persistent European gasoline surplus k/bd Production Demand Despite shut down of European refinery capacity, Europe continues to have a structural surplus in gasoline As European refineries need to produce domestic diesel, gasoline becomes a by-product
16 Shrinking US outlet US imports as % of Europe gasoline surplus % US gasoline pull from Europe is weakening It will be difficult for Europe to find other gasoline export outlets.
17 EU refining response to demand drop Heterogeneity prevails kb/d Germany kb/d Netherlands Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Demand Crude runs Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Demand Crude runs As domestic demand decline, refining sector reaction is different from one country to another Northern Europe France, UK are still on a declining trend reducing crude runs with demand Germany, crude runs seem to have bottomed with demand still declining Netherlands, Belgium, crude runs almost unchanged
18 EU refining response to demand drop Heterogeneity prevails kb/d Italy kb/d Spain kb/d 319 Portugal Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Demand Crude runs 854 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Demand Crude runs 69 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Demand Crude runs Southern Europe Italy, crude runs declining with demand but still running in surplus Spain, Portugal have increased their refinery runs, benefiting from export demand in the Mediterranean
19 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 European kerojet imports Kb/d OECD Europe, incl. intra-europe
20 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 European kerojet imports by origin Kb/d OECD Europe, intra-europe vs. ex-europe Incremental imports coming from outside Europe Wide swings, seasonal peak around October Intra-Europe Ex-Europe
21 OECD Europe kerojet imports ex- Europe as a % of demand Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep Imports from outside Europe already account for >40% of consumption at peaks
22 OECD Europe kerojet imports, ex- Europe, main non-oecd suppliers kb/d, 12-mo. rolling avg KSA, Kuwait & UAE remain among top suppliers, India & Qatar newcomers all long haul suppliers
23 OECD Europe kerojet imports, ex- Europe, main countries of origin Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 kb/d, 12-mo rolling avg US and Korea have emerged as new OECD suppliers Kuwait Qatar KSA UAE India Korea US
24 Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Jul-04 Apr-05 Jan-06 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 France kerojet imports vs demand Kb/d 140 France Kerojet Imports ex Euro France Jet and Kerosene Demand Demand dipped after 2008 but imports keep rising wide swings in imports
25 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 France kerojet import dependence Kb/d, imports ex-europe France jet imports ex-europe as a % of demand Imports up to 80% of demand at peaks
26 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 UK kerojet imports and demand Kb/d UK Jet and Kerosene Demand UK Jet Imp. ex-euro as % of Demand Coryton refinery closure?
27 Indian jet exports: main European buyers Kb/d, 12-mo rolling avg Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep Netherlands France UK Others
28 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 Jan-00 Dec-00 Nov-01 Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05 Jun-06 May-07 Apr-08 Mar-09 Feb-10 Jan-11 Dec-11 Nov-12 Jan-00 Aug-00 Mar-01 Oct-01 May-02 Dec-02 Jul-03 Feb-04 Sep-04 Apr-05 Nov-05 Jun-06 Jan-07 Aug-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 May-09 Dec-09 Jul-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Nov-12 OECD European gasoil Demand vs Imports ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Demand Total Imports 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Total Imports ex-europe
29 OECD Europe gasoil imports ex- Europe as a % of demand Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep
30 Implications of increased product import dependence Import dependence likely on the rise in the event of further European refinery closures, even if demand keeps contracting Longer-haul supply Reduced flexibility to deal with short-term market swings or supply disruptions Increased storage requirements pre-peak season Terminal costs for pre-positioning, bulk break/build Blending challenges to meet local specs Price volatility: increased time spreads to offset storage costs Increased location spreads to offset transport costs New set of incentives for market participants: refiners and traders have very different business models and strategies
31 Case study: US NE ULSD balance
32 US gasoline spreads on the rise 2004: USEC refiners = 26% of USEC demand NYH prices on average 1c/gln> USGC. 2011: USEC refiner market share = 19% NYH premium = 3c/gln.
33 OECD Europe kerojet balances Kb/d Notional supply gap widens but exports to unspecified locations from the Netherlands on the rise could account for part of the gap
34 OECD Europe kerojet balances Kb/d
35 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 OECD Europe monthly jet stock draw Higher for longer? kb/d (50) (100) (150) (200)
36 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 France kerojet balances kbd 200 Demand Net Imports from OECD Europe Net Imports ex-oecd Europe Production Net imports from outside OECD region now roughly at parity with domestic production France is a marginal net exporter to OECD Europe
37 France jet balance: demand v stk chg Kb/d
38 France kerojet balances Kb/d Stock changes are beginning to play a role in meeting seasonal demand (didn t use to) Net imports once countercyclical with demand are becoming pro-cyclical. France exports to other European countries appear to be giving less reliable supplier?
39 UK jet balance Kb/d
40 UK jet balance Kb/d
41 UK jet imports and exports Kb/d
42 EU refinery distillation vs upgrades kb/d European Refinery Configuration Evolution Light Oil Processing Conversion Hydro Processing Crude Distillation (right scale) Several EU upgrading projects commissioned and planned to adapt to the new product demand structure. Conversion capabilities will improve amid demand switch from fuel oil to distillate.
43 EU refining upgrades to continue kb/d 130 Europe Coker / Disel Desulphurization Capacity Additions kb/d Europe Hydrocracking Capacity Additions Hydrocracking capacity + 29% Coking capacity + 34% Coking capacity expected to increase + 23% over the next five years Distillate desulfurization increases nearly 4% and will continue so
44 Netherlands trade statistics It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data Sherlock Holmes Netherlands Motor Gasoline Exports kb/d Total Exports Not Elsewhere Specified kb/d Netherlands Gasoil Exports Total Exports Not Elsewhere Specified Netherlands Rank 6 in Europe 2012 demand: 998 mb/d Refining capacity: mb/d Inconsistencies in trade statistics Refining Capacity Italy Ireland Germany Slovakia2 071 UK Switzerland Hungary Denmark Czech France Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Finland Norway Portugal Demand Poland Turkey Greece Sweden Gasoline export: not elswhere specified ranging from -45% to +55% Diesel export: not elswhere specified ranging from -55% to +55%
45 Concluding remarks Refinery strategies vary on location, investments More European closures in the cards Europe increasingly short some products Import dependency on the rise, esp. jet fuel Jet imports at parity with domestic supply in UK, France Heightened supply disruption risk longer haul, bottlenecks, reduced short-term flexibility Suppliers exposed to political risk Product storage to rise from refinery, crude conversion Inter-European shipments on the rise? Jet fuel shelf life? Logistical links are key poorly canvassed Inefficiencies (price signals, distribution)? Capacity attrition not the only change - effect of changing incentives, market power of market participants has yet to be assessed
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