RESULTS FOR Q ANALYST TELECONFERENCE
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- Beverley Paulina Byrd
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1 RESULTS FOR Q4 216 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE
2 Market 1 2 Operation Financials 3
3 Market 1
4 216 Fourth Quarter Market Conditions Product Market Crude Oil Postponed Maintenances Started to take place High Agricultural Demand Normalized Seasonal Demand with El Nino fading away Industrially Driven Asian Growth and Stronger European Demand OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut FED Rate Hikes Emerging Markets Slow Down Brexit Stock levels were still higher Global Terrorism Fluctuation in currency & prices High Production of OPEC & Russia before cut / Increase in rig counts in USA 4
5 Key Highlights in Q4 Capacity Utilization* 1% Capacity Utilization Target has been achieved Dec Nov Oct ,9 18, ,7 19, Thousand tons Diesel sales increased by 11% Diesel Sales 7 Oct Nov Dec Strong net refinery margins $/bbl ,1 1,2 9,9 6,4 6,2 2,9 Net Refinery Margin Oct Nov Dec *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 5
6 11 Months Turkish Consumption (Million tons) Diesel Domestic Jet Fuel 216 2, , % +1.3 % , , Gasoline,,4,8 1,2 1,6 Decline in bunker sales -5,6% Fuel Oil* 216 2,6 216, % -1.6 % 215 1,92 215,52,8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, 2,2,1,2,3,4,5,6 Source: EMRA *bunker excluded. 6
7 Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl) 1 Ural Differentials, $/bbl ,53 -,54-1,41-1,17-1,59-1,66-1,64-1,6 -,73 -,21-1,78-1,68 -,61-1,3 -,94-1,76 -,66-2,2-1,2-1,6-1,4-2,4-1,3-1, Min/Max Price Differentials, $/bbl Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC 7
8 Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl) ,4 18,9 15,2 14,5 13,5 13,8 13, 1,9 12,8 15,7 15,2 14,6 11,2 7,9 9,2 8,9 1,8 1,1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 14,4 11,2 1,7 1,2-13,2-11,6-12, -1,6-13,1-5,7-12,5 7,3 7,7 7,9 9,4-15, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8
9 2 Operations
10 71,3 76,8 98,1 1,9 Production Capacity Utilisation* (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons) ,5 4,4 +2,8% 15,3 4, ,59 5,6 6,93 6,75 7,32 7,42 7,36 7,23 5, ,1 2,4 74,9 4 4,55 4,63 5,41 3,6 6 2 Crude Oil Other Min / Max 27/ Q 2Q 3Q 4Q *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 1
11 Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons) 8 Domestic sales of selected products Diesel Gasoline Asphalt Jet Fuel ,48 (Thousand tons) Domestic Export 4,7 1,1 1,73 5,6 1,7 3,6 3,9 2,27 6,9 1,8 5,1 1,66,43,45,46,39,23,27,43,42,76,86 1,,98 5,9 4,1 2,23,52 7,3 7,7 1,9 5,4 2,75,55,63,91,79 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,5 1,27 Diesel sales increased by %1,8 to 2.87 million tons compared to Q415. In full year, diesel sales soared by 18% Total Sales 1,3 6,4 6,4 1,5 4,9 1,8 1,16 7,9 8,1 1,2 1,2 6,8 6,9 6,1 1,8 4,3 7,9 1,7 1,3 6,2 6, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1,83,54 2,62 2,94,6,64 1,73,44,51,91 2,59 2,87,5,52,9,87 1,13 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7,6 11
12 Opet Station Numbers Opet Sunpet Market positions as of 31th of December: White Product: 17,7% Black Product: 19,4% 12
13 Financials 3
14 Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl ,56 2,3,3 4rd Quarter 1,6 5,17 5,5 3,84 3, Month 6,47 6,3 4,83 3,97 3,21 2,45 1,67 1, Tüpraş Net Med Complex Tüpraş Net Med Complex $ / bbl Gross Margin Inventory Effect Clean Clean Gross Margin Clean Clean NET Margin Med Margin 215 Q4 1,9 -,8 11,7 5,9 3,5 216 Q4 15, 1,2 13,8 8,9 5,1 * Hedge Operations not included 14
15 Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices) Q4 Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl Product Yield % LPG 362, 364, 3,6% -17,2-11,3 Gasoline 55, 464, 2,1% 12,8 13,5 Naptha 421, 388,7 1,1% -1,9,2 Jet Fuel 468,8 417,7 17,5% 1,2 9,4 Diesel 451,2 45,5 32,5% 11,2 1,8 Diesel 1 442,4 389,7,7% 1, 8,7 Fuel Oil 1% 283,6 22,2,2% -5,7-12,5 Fuel Oil 3,5% 259,7 182,9 18,8% -9,4-15,5 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 5,6 4,6 Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 49,5 43,7 94,5% Margin Differences, $/bbl 1, Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 55,6 Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 56,9 Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL 186,6 15
16 Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 12M (FOB Italy Prices) 12M Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl Product Yield % LPG 38,3 36,7 3,6% -16,2-2,3 Gasoline 462,3 557,5 2,1% 13,3 16,2 Naptha 366,6 432,9 1,1% -2,3-3,6 Jet Fuel 48,9 51,9 17,5% 8,3 11,4 Diesel 394,6 494,7 32,5% 9,3 14, Diesel 1 384,9 478,1,7% 8, 11,8 Fuel Oil 1% 222,3 269,1,2% -9,4-11, Fuel Oil 3,5% 25,2 255,4 18,8% -12,1-13,1 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,3 6,6 Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 43,7 52,5 94,5% Margin Differences, $/bbl -2,3 Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 213,3 Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -495,6 Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL ,5 16
17 Income Statement (In TL) Q4 Q4 12 M 12 M % Diff. Million TL % Diff , ,4 21 Net Sales , ,4 24 Gross Profit 4.126, , ,5-294, 4 Operating Expenses -877,1-995, ,2-318,6-28 Income/Loss from other operations -497,5-296, ,1 986,8-17 Operating Profit 2.751, ,3-14 3,6 28,9 Income/Loss from equity -6 investment 72,6 158, ,7 1.15,6 Operating Profit Before Fin. -16 Income/Loss ,5 845,2-76 Financial Income 862, , ,2-965, Finance Expenses , , , 895,7-14 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225, , ,9 83, -1 Net Profit 2.55, , ,6 1.55,4 24,7 EBITDA *(mn.tl) 3.798, ,3-1,6 1.35, ,9 29,2 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934, ,3-24, , 1.121,5-17 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb 3.237, ,3-1, ,2 954,1-19,2 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb- CCS 3.373, ,3-26,3 17
18 Income Statement (In USD) Q4 Q4 12 M 12 M % Diff. Million USD % Diff Net Sales Gross Profit 1.517,8 1.28, Operating Expenses -322,6-329, Income/Loss from other -249 operations -183, -98, Operating Profit 1.12,2 78, Income/Loss from equity -24 investment 26,7 52, Operating Profit Before Fin. -26 Income/Loss Financial Income 317,3 388, Finance Expenses -537,7-578, Profit Before Tax & Minorities 818,6 644, Net Profit 938, 594, ,8 48,4 13,9 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397, ,1-19,5 352,2 48,6 16, EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962, -32,8 481,4 354,4-26 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb 1.191, 96,1-19,4 411,8 282,6-31,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb- CCS 1.226, 797, -35, 18
19 Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 12M Mil. TL ,1 383, , , ,9 667,4 48, , , 5 Profit Before Tax in 215 Yield Difference Crude Oil Differentials Inventory Effect Total Expenditures Crack Margin Differences Pricing, FOB_CIF Diff & FX Others Profit Before Tax in
20 Financial Highlights (mn $) ,19,3,32,24,26,35,4,11,16, EBITDA Net Income Net Debt Return on Average Equity ,4,35,3,25,2,15,1,5, Q H 216 9M 216 2
21 Balance Sheet Analysis 3,46 3,22 3,1 3,28 3,4 2,46 1,74 1,7 1,59 1,36 1,23 1,69 1,98 2,2 4 Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) 2, Receivables (Billion $) ,16 1,72 1,69 1,31,641,68 1,21 1,4,82 1,4 1,64 1,59 2,45 1,72 1,6 1,2,8,4, 1,33,93,71,52,51,9,2,66 1,7,88,91,91,7, Financial Loans (Billion $) 3,7 3,4 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,9 4, 4,2 3,6 3,6 3,4,9 1,,3,3,3,4,5,6 1, 1,2 1,1 3,4,6,6,5 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3, 3,3 3,1 3, 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2, Payables (Billion $) LT Loans ST Loans 21
22 Tüpraş Balance Sheet Million USD Difference % Difference Current Assets Cash & C. Equivalents Receivables Derivatives Inventories Pre-paid expenses Other Current Assets Long Term Assets Financial Assets & Subsidiaries Fixed Assets Derivatives Pre-paid expenses Deferred Tax Other Long Term Assets Total Assets Short Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables Derivatives Deferred Incomes Provisions Other ST Liabilities Long Term Liabilities Financial Loans Payables & Provisions Derivatives Other LT Liabilities Equity Minority Interests Total Liabilities
23 FX Risk Exposure (31 December 216) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash Receivables & other assets 117 Stock 988 Forward & CFH 1,83 Payables 1.92 ST Financials 426 RUP 296 LT Financials: 2,627 RUP Loans: 1,26 Eurobond: 7 Other credits million $ *Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,426 mn $ 23
24 Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Capacity Utilisation Investment The average Brent price in 217 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel on average. We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4. 4,5 dollars per barrel band in 217. Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of dollars per barrel Expectations for 217; Full Capacity Utilization Production: approximately 29,2 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales: 3.6 million tons Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million USD investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity. 24
25 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. 25
26 Extras
27 4rd Quarter Product Yields Coke 2,9% LPG 3,4% Other 1,4% Fuel Oil 7,% Other 4,8% Bitumen 11,5% Black Prod. 21,4% Mid. Distil. 52,3% Light Distil. 21,5% Gasoline 2,9% Naphtha,6% Jet 17,6% Coke 3,1% LPG Other 3,3% 1,2% Fuel Oil 5,% Other 4,5% Bitumen 13,1% Black Prod. 21,2% Mid. Distil. 52,8% Light Distil. 21,5% Gasoline 2,3% Naphtha 1,2% Jet 14,3% Diesel 34,6% Diesel 38,5% White Product 77.49% Production 7.33 mn ton API:3.27 White Product 77.57% Production 7.31 mn ton API:3.1 27
28 Product Yields Coke 1,8% Fuel Oil 1,8% Other 5,2% Bitumen 1,7% ASRFO+Vac,4% Other 5,2% Black Prod. 23,6% Mid. Distil. 49,6% Light Distil. 21,6% Gasoline 2,6% Naphtha 1,% Jet 19,% ASRFO+Vac,3% Fuel Oil 7,2% Coke 2,5% Other 5,3% Other 5,3% Bitumen 12,4% Black Prod. 22,3% Mid. Distil. 5,4% Light Distil. 22,% Gasoline 2,9% Naphtha 1,1% Jet 16,5% Diesel 3,5% Diesel 33,9% White Product 75,43% Production 27,27 mn ton API:31,35 White Product 76,57% Production 27,93 mn ton API:3,62 28
29 Crude Oil (12M) Increased heavy crude supply by 14,2 % after RUP API>34 2,6% 16,6% 6,3% 41,7% 34>API >3 41,7% 41,% API<3 37,7% 42,4% 52,% We are dealing with 65 trading crude oil in Med 29
30 Production (million tons) Middle Distillate Light Distillate 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, 3,8 3,8 3,7 3,9 3,4 3,1 1,9 2,2 2,5 2,3 2,5 3, 2,3 2,5 1,8 2,1 2,4 2,8 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,6 2,,7,9 1,,9 1, 1,3 1,6 1,3 1, 1,3 1,3 1, Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 2, 1,5 1,,5, 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,6 1, 1, 1,2 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,5,9 1, Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Jet Diesel Gasoline Naphtha 2, 1,5 1,,5, Black Product 1,9 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,5 1,6 1,3,7 1,4 1,2,5,4,6,4,6,4,9,8,8 1, 1, 1,1,8 1, 1,1 1,,8,8,3,5,4,3,4 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 Crude Oil API 33,1 32,9 32,5 32,2 31,8 31,9 31,1 3,8 3,33,5 3,33,1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q
31 Product Yields 6% 5% Middle Distillate 53% 52% 43% 47% 46% 46% 46% 43% 45% 51% 52% 53% 25% 2% Light Distillate 22% 21% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 4% 3% 27% 27% 27% 26% 28% 27% 31% 35% 3% 32% 34% 39% 15% 2% 1% 21% 21% 22% 23% 22% 2% 2% 21% 22% 21% 21% 2% 1% 17% 2% 19% 17% 18% 19% 21% 18% 16% 19% 18% 14% 5% % Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Jet Diesel % Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Gasoline Naphtha 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 28% 29% 26% 26% 9% 8% 9% 12% Black Product 1% 26% 27% 7% 1% 26% 21% 21% 1% 3% 3% 9% 19% 2% 13% 11% 17% 18% 17% 14% 15% 5% 7% 21% 22% 21% 3% 3% 3% 13% 14% 13% 5% 5% 5% Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 Crude Oil API 33,1 32,9 32,5 32,2 31,8 31,9 31,1 3,8 3,5 3,3 3,33,1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q
32 Sales (Thousand Tons) Domestic Sales Export Volumes : 22.2 mn tons 216 : 24.8 mn tons : 6.4 mn tons 216 : 5.5 mn tons Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other 32
33 Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for Brent Crude Price TL/Dollar 56 3,54 3,54 3,57 3,52 3, ,6 49,8 51,6 55,4 3,42 3, ,32 3, , ,6 39,9 36,2 3,8 4,3 3,7 41,9 3,17 3,12 3,7 3,2 32 2,97 2, , , 2,8 2,82 2,77 33
34 Trading Activities Finished Products Because of low desulfurisation margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports, ULSD imports were increased in paralel to the sales volume rise. Intermediates We have purchased HVGO + LCGO for the conversion units after RUP. Product Imports, Ton* Intermediate Imports, Ton* HVGO LCGO+CO 34
35 Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/crude $/bbl) 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,7 1,24 1,45 Gasoline 1,38 1,31 1,32 1,32 1,24 1,26 1,15 1,12 1,13 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,14 1,29 1,23 Diesel 1,29 1,25 1,2 1,2 1,16 1,12 1,25 1,23 1,21 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q ,3 1,27 Jet Fuel 1,5 Fuel Oil 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,12 1,22 1,21 1,22 1,21 1,21 1,18 1,17 1,17 1,15 1,1 1,2,9,6,81,81,85,78,8,8,8,67,74,77,61,64 1,5,3 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q
36 Inventory Effect* Analysis $ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total 1st Quarter -35,1-35,1-7,2-9, -13,4-22,4 2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 7,1 117, 3rd Quarter -45,9-55,7-11,6 2,3 12,8 15,2 4rth Quarter -42,8-4,7-83,5 64,8 58,5 123,4 Sep -5,2,9-4,3 2,4 11,7 32,1 Nov -1,6-17,4-28,1 8,3 4,9 13,2 Dec -27, -24,2-51,1 36,2 41,9 78,1 12 Months -95,6-92,5-188,1 15,1 128, 233,1 *FX effect Included, hedging excluded 1
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