PRESENTATION TO FOURTH IEA-IEF-OPEC SYMPOSIUM ON ENERGY OUTLOOKS
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1 PRESENTATION TO FOURTH IEA-IEF-OPEC SYMPOSIUM ON ENERGY OUTLOOKS Nathalie BRUNELLE Senior VP Strategy, Development, Research Refining & Chemicals January 22, 214 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
2 janv.-7 juin-7 nov.-7 avr.-8 sept.-8 févr.-9 juil.-9 déc.-9 mai-1 oct.-1 mars-11 août-11 janv.-12 juin-12 nov.-12 avr.-13 sept.-13 US FEEDSTOCK ADVANTAGE : ALREADY A REALITY Price evolution* $/t Ethylene production Mt/y EU Naphta 34 North America 3 US Ethane US plants benefiting from low price of feedstock and energy 2
3 THE US ENERGY REVOLUTION & PETROCHEMISTRY 9 8 Evolution of US gas production* (Bcfd) kbd 2 1 U.S. ethane balance Ethane resources Ethane demand Ethane supply Conventional Shale CBM * Source : Total estimations 3
4 MORE NEW CAPACITIES TO COME IN ETHYLENE change in global ethylene capacity Mt/y Additional demand %/y US projects on ethane to add 3% regional capacity, essentially dedicated to PE derivatives ME projects based on mixed feedstock and allowing more diversified downstream North America Asia 217 Naphtha based production represent now less than 5% of world ethylene Middle East Rest of world US to become a major exporter of ethylene derivatives 4
5 AND PROPYLENE change in global propylene capacity Mt/y Additional demand %/y Around 23% to come from alternative feedstock (propane, coal, methanol) in 218 compared with 12% in US excess of propane to be exported overseas Middle East North America Rest of world Asia New routes for propylene production appear with attractive feedstock price 5
6 TO FEED GROWING GLOBAL MARKET Global polymer demand Mt/y* Plastic consumption per capita* Kg/cap/y % +3.9% +3.9% 7 6 North America 2 5 Western 4 Eastern 1 3 China 2 World India North America China Rest of Asia Middle East Rest of world x% Compound annual growth rate * Perimeter : PE, PP, PS, PET, PVC *Perimeter: PE/PP/PS Will East of Suez growing demand continue to absorb additional capacity? 6
7 NORTH AMERICA TO ARBITRATE ON PE EXPORTS North America Africa Middle East Asia PE trade flows (MT) South America North American exports to target growing South American markets but also Asia and 7
8 WITH NO LOCAL COMPETITIVE FEEDSTOCK AND LIMITED MARKET GROWTH, EUROPEAN PETCHEM INDUSTRY HAS TO ADAPT an ethylene production capacity Steamcracker operating rates 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% End-212 an ethylene capacity : 26 Mt/a 7% Restoring utilization rates Increasing imports from US and Middle-East Estimated 15% capacity reduction need over
9 BENEFITING FROM THE ENVIRONMENT TO GET STRONGER Manage a sizeable diversified portfolio Restructure and develop leading integrated platforms Deliver innovative products Develop sustainable processes and products Our strategy : safe and reliable refining-petrochemicals focused on increasing value and redeploying towards growing markets 9
10 TOTAL : MAJOR GLOBAL PLAYER IN PETROCHEMICALS 5 Petrochemicals players 212 global capacity in Mt* TOTAL s global capacity at end-213 (including share in Satorp) world 9 e and 2 nd in 2 % of global polyethylene capacity 11%for polystyrene NAM Asia Middle-East 1 Olefines Aromatics (including PX) PE Middle-East Asia PP PS North America RoW * Portfolio: Ethylene + Propylene + Benzene + Toluene + Mixed Xylenes + Polyethylene + Polypropylene + Polystyrene + EPS + PET + PVC Other A sizeable and diversified petrochemicals portfolio 1
11 TAKING UP THE CHALLENGE ON KEY PLATFORMS Priority to investments on integrated platforms with feedstock diversification : Normandy, Antwerp Reducing petrochemicals exposure : Antwerp NC1, Carling Differentiate polymer products on higher value markets Americas Port Arthur cracker: maximizing ethane and LPG cracking Benefiting from leading positions in polypropylene and polystyrene Studying ethane side cracker project Middle East and Asia Developing 3 of the world s best performing platforms Green light for coal-to-olefin project in China 11
12 BENEFITING FROM INTEGRATION BETWEEN REFINING AND PETROCHEMICALS BEYOND PRODUCT EXCHANGE Unique optimized platforms Refining Naphtha, LPG, refinery offgas, propylene, aromatics, Synergies expected from TOTAL s new R&C organization Net operating income First synergies in Normandy and Antwerp Renegotiated energy contracts First benefits of rightsizing central services 25 M$ 1 M$ Petrochemicals Hydrogen, steam, low sulphur fuel oil, pyrolysis Gasoline Leveraging on single site management, common infrastructures and size effect
13 QUESTIONMARKS AND CHALLENGES FOR A MAJOR PLAYER Demand growth in LAM and Asia Markets Shale hydrocarbons phenomenon (magnitude, logistics, other regions?) Gas exports from the US et potential impact on prices LPG associated production, swing demand and world trade flows Operational Excellence & Leading Innovation Operations Access to competitive feedstock and energy Pace of restructuring People Skills and know-how 13
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