For Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams Meeting April 22, 2015 St. Charles, Missouri via video/teleconference

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1 For Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams Meeting St. Charles, Missouri via video/teleconference By Grant Nülle, Upstream Oil & Gas Economist, Exploration and Production Analysis Team U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

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3 Displays U.S. and regional production, stocks, blender inputs, imports, and exports Digests important developments in Today in Energy, This Week in Petroleum, Issues & Trends, Country Analysis Briefs, Drilling Productivity Report Forecasts U.S. supplies, demands, imports, stocks, and prices of energy with a horizon of 12 to 24 months Presents 25- to 30-year projection and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices Assesses international energy production and consumption 3

4 U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through March 2015 and represent EIA s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). 4

5 Tight oil production million barrels of oil per day Tight oil production as a percent of total oil production Rest of U.S. Oil Production Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) Tight oil % of total 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through March 2015 and represent EIA s official tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). 5

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7 Drillers targeted either oil or natural gas formations Production was relatively stable over a long period from each well Simple rig count was sufficient to monitor and forecast production New applications of technology: Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing Pad drilling: Multiple wells per rig from one surface location High initial production rates driven by better technology Steep production declines Formations yielding both oil and natural gas Regional differences contrast rig and well productivity Higher costs to drill and complete a well 7

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9 EIA Drilling Productivity Report regions EIA Drilling Productivity Report : 9

10 Nülle Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams April 22,

11 Source: EIA Drilling Productivity Report, Sept. 2014, DrillingInfo Inc. 11

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14 Nülle Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams April 22,

15 WTI price dollars per barrel WTI $52 $70 Brent $60 $ Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast 25 NYMEX Futures Price Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2016 Oct Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April

16 Event ISIL disrupts Iraqi exports Iranian sanctions are tightened Social unrest in oil-dependent countries leads to supply disruptions OPEC cuts output more than projected World economic growth is lower than projected (e.g., China) OPEC keeps production at 2015 levels in 2016 Reduction in unplanned production outages Iranian sanctions are lifted 16

17 World crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day Forecast OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March

18 U.S. crude oil and liquid fuels production million barrels per day annual change million barrels per day Crude oil (right axis) Fuel ethanol (right axis) Total production (left axis) Natural gas plant liquids (right axis) Biodiesel (right axis) Production forecast (left axis) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March

19 U.S. monthly crude oil production million barrels per day Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Federal GOM Alaska Lower 48 production from wells drilled in 2013 or before Source: EIA, Today in Energy 1/26/

20 U.S. monthly crude oil production million barrels per day Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Federal GOM Alaska Lower 48 production from wells drilled in 2013 or before Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) April

21 U.S. monthly crude oil production million barrels per day Total U.S. onshore rig count 12 Rig forecast January STEO Q3 Q1 Q2 Q , , , ,000 Federal GOM Alaska Lower 48 production from wells drilled in 2013 or before Source: EIA, Today in Energy 1/26/

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23 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History High Oil and Gas Resource Reference Low Oil Price 15 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in Tight oil 5 Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

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34 Canadian liquid fuels production, Reference case million barrels per day 7 projections Refinery gain and biofuels 6 NGPL Other crude oil 5 Tight oil Bitumen Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

35 Canadian tight oil production million barrels per day Producing well count 40,000 BC AB MB SK Producing Wells 30,000 20, , Source: Canada NEB

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40 Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History Projections AEO AEO Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case 40

41 Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History Projections High Oil Price Reference 100 Low Oil Price 50 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

42 change between 2013 and 2040 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day 10 8 Dakotas/Rocky Mountains West Coast Southwest 2 East Gulf Coast Midcontinent -2 Reference 4.2 Oil Price Low Economic High Oil and High Oil Price Low Growth Gas Resource 4.1 High Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

43 U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History Projections % 33% Net petroleum and other liquids imports 14% 10 Other crude oil production (excluding tight) 23% 17% 21% Natural gas plant liquids 21% 29% Tight oil production 22% 17% % 27% 12% 12% 14% Other Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case 43

44 net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent 70 History 2013 Projections Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

45 transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections % Diesel 10% Jet fuel 3% Other* 4% 31% 31% 1% 13% CNG/LNG 14% 4% Ethanol 2% 5% 3% 3% Motor gasoline 58% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case % 48% *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen 45

46 U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas Reference Low Oil Price History Resource Total petroleum product net exports Other petroleum 12 Total petroleum product High Oil and Gas Resource product exports net exports 8 Reference 4 8 Low Oil Price Motor gasoline exports 4 Distillate exports 0 Other petroleum product imports Motor gasoline imports Distillate imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

47 Nülle Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams April 22, 2015

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50 Source: EIA/ARI Supplement 2015 Preliminary Release 50

51 Shale gas Rank Country 1 China 2 Shale oil Trillion cubic feet Rank Country 1,115 1 Russia 75.8 Argentina United States Algeria China Canada Argentina United States Libya Mexico UAE Australia Chad South Africa Australia Russia Venezuela Brazil Mexico 13.1 Total for 46 countries 7,509 Total for 46 countries Billion barrels Source: EIA, USGS and ARI 2015 Preliminary Results 51

52 51% Source: US EIA, Canada National Energy Board, Fact Global Energy, Chevron, Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales 6

53 Canadian liquid fuels production, Reference case million barrels per day history 2010 projections 7 Refinery gain and biofuels 6 NGPL 5 Tight oil Bitumen Other crude oil Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2014 Nülle Region 5 and Region 7 Regional Response Teams April 22,

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