Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service LDP-M-94 Apr. 23, 2002 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Leland Southard (Coordinator) Meat Production To Increase Contents Poultry Hogs/Pork Cattle Dairy Tables at a Glance Economic Indicators Dairy Red Meat & Poultry Detail Tables Web Sites Cattle Hogs Poultry and Eggs Dairy WASDE The next release is May 15, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board Total meat production in 2002 is projected to be nearly 84 billion pounds (lb.), up 1 percent from a year ago. Poultry and pork production are expected to be up modestly, while beef production is expected to be nearly unchanged. Drought conditions are forcing more cattle into feedlots and possibly delaying herd expansion for at least another year. The March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report reported a 2-percent increase in the market hog inventory and producers intentions to have 1 percent more sows farrow during March-August than a year ago. Projected meat exports in 2002 are projected to fall about 2 percent from last year, as all major meats are expected to register declines. Projected poultry exports are below earlier expectations due to poultry import bans by Russia and Japan. The Russian government claimed that poultry products from U.S. plants were not meeting protocols for inspection and had tested positive for salmonella. On April 13, Russian officials notified the U.S. government that the ban on U.S. shipments of poultry products would be lifted as of April 15. The Japanese ban was imposed only on products from Maine, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina due to outbreaks of low-pathogenic strains of avian influenza. The ban on products from Pennsylvania has been lifted. Larger meat production and lower exports are pressuring domestic prices downward. Hog prices have weakened and are expected to average about $40 per hundredweight (cwt) for the year, $6 below Wholesale broiler and turkey prices are expected to average about 2 percent lower this year. Although fed steer prices are expected to register a year-over-year price gain, the projected increase is below earlier expectations as larger than expected placements boost beef production. Although the recession may be quite mild, dairy demand adjustments might be greater than would normally be expected based on economic conditions. After a 4-year binge, consumer demand may be settling back more in line with the long run trend. The price declines needed to clear the expected rise in milk production may be larger than projected earlier. Average farm milk prices are projected to decline about $2 per cwt in 2002.

2 Poultry Shipments Bans Drive Fall in Broiler Exports On April 13, Russian officials notified the U.S. Government that the ban on U.S. shipments of poultry products would be lifted as of April 15. U.S. broiler exports in 2002 are now expected to total 6.1 billion pounds, down 1.4 percent from a year ago and 250 million pounds below earlier expectations. The expected reduction in exports is due primarily to the ban that had been on U.S. poultry shipments to Russia and shipments to Japan from specific States within the United States. Earlier, Russia had placed a number of conditions on the resumption of trade. Under those conditions, not all the processing plants that had been exporting products to Russia can automatically resume shipping. The Russian Government claimed that poultry products from a number of U.S. plants had tested positive for salmonella. These plants will not be allowed to resume exporting to Russia until inspections are completed. Broiler exports to Russia in 2001 totaled 2.3 million pounds or approximately 192 million pounds per month. The partial ban on broiler exports to Japan also contributes to the forecast decline in broiler exports. The ban is linked to the outbreaks of lowpathogenic strains of avian influenza in Maine, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. The ban on shipments of products produced in Maine Will remain in place until May 12, but the ban on Pennsylvania products has been lifted. The ban on products produced in Virginia will last 90 days, but this period will not start until Virginia has completed dealing with the outbreak. The ban on products from North Carolina is set to last until June 30. Turkey Exports also Hit by Russian Ban Turkey exports for 2002 are forecast at 470 million pounds, down 25 million pounds from earlier expectations. The primary reasons were the ban on poultry exports to Russia and increased competition from broiler products in the Mexican market. Over the last 2 years, Russia has become the second-largest market for turkey exports, behind only Mexico. Although the focus of the ban has been on the broiler trade, the ban also includes U.S. turkey products. In 2001, turkey product shipments to Russia totaled 81 million pounds. Turkey exports to Mexico will be pressured by falling prices for U.S. broiler parts, especially leg quarters. Since the Russian ban started, wholesale prices for broiler leg quarters in the Southeast region have fallen below 14 cents per pound, down about 6 cents or 30 percent from prices at the beginning of March. At these low prices, Mexican importers are expected to substitute some broiler product imports for turkey imports. Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry.Outlook/LDM-M-94/April

3 Hogs/Pork Hog Production Up Slightly, Prices Down The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released March 28 indicated that inventories and farrowing intentions were in line with expectations. Pork production in 2002 is expected to be about 1 percent above last year. Hog prices are expected to average about $40 per cwt, compared with $46 in Hog and pork prices in early 2002 are running below earlier expectations. Pork Production Nearly Unchanged in First Half Commercial pork production in the first quarter of 2002 was fractionally lower than a year earlier. The 2-percent lower expected hog slaughter was partially offset by a 1-pound gain in the average dressed weight. Based on the June-August 2001 pig crop and larger expected imports from Canada, second-quarter hog slaughter is expected to be slightly below a year earlier. Heavier dressed weights are expected to hold production about equal with a year ago. Hogs and Pigs Report Points to Larger Pig Crop in 2002 The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released March 28 supported both industry expectations and last December s quarterly report in pointing to a larger pig crop in The March report showed that 3 percent more sows farrowed in the December-February quarter than in the same period a year ago. Pigs per litter in the December- February quarter were about the same as in the first quarter last year, with the resulting pig crop about 3 percent ahead of the same period a year ago. The larger pig crop, plus larger expected live imports from Canada, point to a third-quarter 2002 slaughter about 3 percent greater than a year earlier. Additionally, heavier dressed weights are expected to lift third-quarter 2002 production about 4 percent above third-quarter 2001 production. The March report showed producers intentions to increase March-May farrowings 1 percent above a year ago, essentially unchanged from the first intentions published in December. If producers follow their intentions, and pigs per litter decline slightly as expected, the March-May pig crop will be only slightly larger than a year ago. The pig crop plus anticipated live imports from Canada imply a fourth-quarter 2002 slaughter only slightly greater than a year earlier. Heavier dressed weights in the fourth quarter are expected to increase production nearly 1 percent above a year earlier. Farrowing intentions for the June-August pig crop were up 1 percent from last year. If producers intentions and expectations for a slightly improved year-over-year litter productivity rate are both met, the June-August pig crop would be about 1 percent higher than a year ago. The pig crop, plus expected imports of live animals from Canada, point to a 1- to-2-percent larger first quarter 2003 slaughter. In summary, the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, and USDA forecasts suggest that around 1 percent more sows will farrow in Higher farrowings and little change in pigs per litter are expected to result in a slightly larger 2002 pig crop. Larger pig crops and increased live imports from Canada should lift second-half 2002 slaughter slightly above a year ago and suggest higher slaughter into Heavier anticipated dressed weights, due to continued moderate feed costs and use of improved genetics, should increase 2002 pork production about 1 percent over last year. Hog Prices Lower on Weaker Demand for Pork Products First-quarter hog prices averaged $39.43 per cwt, down 8 percent from a year ago. The lower hog prices reflect the weaker market for pork products. Since the beginning of March, the cutout has fallen more than 12 percent. Hog prices are expected to average in the low $40s in the second and third quarters and then fall to the mid $30s in the fourth quarter. Based on current expectations, hog prices in 2002 should average near $40 per cwt, 13 percent lower than in Weakness on the live side of the market appears to be driven by lower consumer demand for pork products, as evidenced by declines in pork carcass cutout values since the end of February. Factors contributing to the apparent reduction in consumer demand for pork include the uncertainty that accompanies economic slow-downs and greater first-quarter beef and poultry supplies, both of which compete with pork for consumers food dollars. Prices are expected to be relatively weak Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

4 Hogs/Pork in coming months due to continued abundant supplies of such competing meats as poultry and beef, as herd expansion is postponed for another year. Although first-quarter retail pork prices are expected to be above a year ago, retail prices for the remainder of 2002 are expected to average below last year, reflecting greater product supplies and competition from beef and poultry. Live Imports Very Strong USDA s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service data on live hog imports from Canada suggest that first-quarter imports were more than 18 percent ahead of a year ago, and that more than 60 percent of the imported animals are feeder pigs. Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

5 Cattle Drought Conditions Increase Cattle Placements Drought continues to affect the cattle sector, much as it has over the past several years, by forcing more cattle into feedlots. Conditions coming out of the winter, without improved soil moisture conditions or snow pack to fill reservoirs, have raised even greater concern for spring and summer forage-grazing prospects. Beef cow slaughter, while below the large levels of a year earlier, are above 2000 slaughter levels. However, dairy cow slaughter is historically low, and consequently total cow slaughter continues to decline. The April 19 quarterly Cattle on Feed Report will provide a better view of the number of heifers on feed following the very large number of heavy-weight cattle placements in January and February and likely again in March. Beef production estimates have been increased for the year due to the larger numbers of cattle forced into feedlots and continued record slaughter weights. Beef production in the second and third quarters is now expected to exceed year-earlier levels. Fourth-quarter production is expected to average below a year earlier, but continued poor grazing prospects and even larger placements could push production up. Although dressed weights are declining, they remain sharply above the weatherreduced weights of the first half of Fed -attle prices have remained relatively firm so far this year, although well below the weatherinduced levels of a year earlier. However, increasing weights and slaughter numbers in late April- and May are likely to pressure prices down unless prices of competing meats begin to strengthen from recent low levels. Stocker-feeder cattle prices remain under pressure from poor forage conditions,forcing large supplies onto the market. Favorable feeding costs continue to support feeder cattle prices, although at lower levels than a year earlier. Without favorable grain prices and larger placements into feedlots, given the poor forage prospects, stocker-feeder cattle prices would be even lower. Utility cow prices remain strong as total cow slaughter and dairy cow slaughter continue to decline. Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

6 Dairy Dairy Demand Soft Early 2002 dairy demand was sluggish. Complete data for February commercial use will not be available until late April, when full import data are released. However, it appears as though commercial use of milkfat during January-February slipped fractionally from a year earlier, while commercial disappearance of skim solids fell about 1 percent. The modest recovery in autumn commercial use was not sustained this winter. Winter buying for use later in the year probably was much more muted this year. In early 2001, milk production was down sharply and still weakening, a sharp contrast to this year s burgeoning recovery. Confidence in demand also is much different than a year ago, when buyers were riding a continuing surge in consumer demand. Even so, final sales to consumers probably were unchanged or a little lower in early Cheese sales were about unchanged in January- February. American cheese sales probably fell more than 3 percent, but use of other varieties rose almost 3 percent. The unusual lack of growth in cheese sales might reflect weakness in restaurant use. Commercial disappearance of nonfat dry milk fell more than a third. Powder buyers have been expecting a significant reduction in the support purchase price (accompanied by a corresponding boost in the support purchase price for butter) and minimized their purchases. In addition, weaker international prices may have affected commercial use in several ways. On the other hand, commercial use of butter jumped about 9 percent in January-February. Butter was readily available this year in contrast to a very tight market a year earlier. Fluid milk sales rose fractionally during early 2002, another possible sign of weaker awayfrom-home eating. The recession is proving to be quite mild and may already be over. However, the dairy demand adjustments might be greater than would normally be expected on the basis of the observed economic conditions. After a 4-year binge, consumer demand may be settling back more in line with the long-run trend. The price declines needed to clear the expected rise in milk production may be larger than projected earlier. Average farm milk prices are projected to decline about $2 per cwt in Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

7 Contacts and Links Contact Information Leland Southard (coordinator) David J. Harvey (poultry) Ron Gustafson (cattle) Dale Leuck (beef trade) Keithly Jones (lamb and mutton) Mildred Haley (hogs/pork) Jim Miller (dairy) LaVerne Williams (statistics) Laverne Creek (web publishing) Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS notification service at to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Printed copies can be purchased from the USDA Order Desk by calling (specify the issue number or series SUB-FAU-4040). Recent Article The following are links to recent articles (in Adobe Acrobat format). Dissecting the Challenges of Mad Cow & Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Two animal diseases currently affecting European agriculture foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or "mad cow disease") have made headlines throughout the world. Simultaneous occurrence of these diseases in Britain earlier 2001 caused concern among consumers worldwide. The combined costs to the country's economy have been shared by agriculture, consumers, tourism, and trade. Both diseases affect livestock product prices, availability of goods, and costs of production. Trade is also affected as governments restrict imports from infected countries. Data Supply and utilization tables updated, New per capita consumption data for red meat and poultry through 2001 are found in the revised supply and utilization tables. Web Site Cattle, Hogs, Poultry and Eggs, Dairy, WASDE, The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, or marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC or call (202) (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. Economic Research Service,USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

8 Economic Indicator Forecasts 1/ IV Annual I II III IV Annual I II III IV Annual GDP, chain wtd (bil dol.) 9,304 9,224 9,335 9,338 9,333 9,316 9,326 9,349 9,410 9,500 9,576 9,456 CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) Unemployment (pct.) Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill year Treasury bond yield / Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, February Dairy Forecasts IV Annual I II III IV Annual I II III IV Annual Milk cows (thous,) 9,203 9,206 9,143 9,114 9,098 9,105 9,115 9,090 9,080 9,065 9,045 9,070 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,416 18,202 4,514 4,683 4,459 4,483 18,139 4,640 4,820 4,595 4,620 18,675 Milk production (bil. pounds) Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis skim solids basis Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis skim solids basis Prices (dol./cwt) All milk Basic Formula Price/ Class III Class IV Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

9 Table 3--Red Meat and Poultry Forecasts Annual I II III IV Annual I II III IV Annual Production, million lb. Beef 26,777 6,182 6,502 6,723 6,700 26,107 6,375 6,600 6,775 6,300 26,050 Pork 18,928 4,805 4,546 4,548 5,239 19,138 4,775 4,540 4,725 5,275 19,315 Lamb and Mutton Broilers 30,495 7,533 7,988 7,882 7,863 31,266 7,850 8,175 8,025 8,000 32,050 Turkeys 5,402 1,332 1,381 1,394 1,454 5,562 1,375 1,425 1,400 1,425 5,625 Total Red Meat & Poultry 82,577 20,088 20,649 20,777 24,192 83,006 20,611 20,968 21,147 21,225 83,951 Table eggs, mil doz. 5,952 1,484 1,503 1,519 1,562 6,068 1,500 1,515 1,530 1,575 6,120 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. 1/ Beef Pork Lamb and Mutton Broilers Turkeys Total Red Meat & Poultry Eggs, number Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt Choice Slaughter Lambs, San Angelo, $/cwt Barrows & gilts, N.base,l.e. $/cwt Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb Eggs, New York, cents/doz U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 2, , ,250 Beef & veal imports 3, , ,245 Lamb and Mutton imports Pork exports 1, , ,485 Pork imports Broiler exports 5,392 1,530 1,603 1,494 1,559 6,186 1,375 1,500 1,600 1,625 6,100 Turkey exports / Per capita meat and egg consumption data are revised, incorporating a new population series from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis based on the 2000 Census Economic Research Service, USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook/LDP-M-94/April

10 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2002 Mar. '2001 Jan. Feb. Mar. /* 1000 Head Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd. 10,012 9,910 9,951 9,905 Net placements 1,450 1,833 1,491 1,594 Marketings 1,603 1,792 1,537 1,565 Broilers: Eggs in incubators (000) /1 627, , , ,723 Chicks hatched (000) /2 763, , , ,000 Hatching egg layers /1 56,803 56,760 57,169 56,944 Pullets placed (000) 6,752 6,660 7,275 6,955 Hvy-type hen slaughter /2 5,623 5,969 5,200 5,600 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators (000) /1 31,805 32,126 31,890 32,596 Poults placed (000) 26,148 25,880 24,266 25,660 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.) / Table egg layers, (000) /1 276, , , ,542 Table eggs/100 layers / Chicks hatched (000) /2 40,109 35,533 34,326 36,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter /2 8,679 9,809 8,188 8, Fed Cattle Marketings As % Of On Feed Inventories J A J O Livestock Operating Returns Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct- Jan- Apr-02 Feedlot Cattle Hogs ESTIMATED RETURNS 2002 Apr. '2001 Feb. Mar. Apr. /* Cents/lb. Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price / Selling price Net margin N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price / Selling price Net margin Broiler Wholesale cost Wholesale price Net margin Turkey Wholesale cost Wholesale price Net margin Egg Wholesale cost Wholesale price Net margin Broiler Egg Set / Chicks Placed Percent of Last Year 05-Feb 05-Mar 02-Apr Egg Set Chicks placed Poultry Processor Returns Apr.' 1 Aug.' 1 Dec.' 1 Apr.' 2 Broiler Turkey /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate

11 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan Apr Apr Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 8,121 8,579 2,110 2,330 1,987 2,059 2,203 Veal Pork 6,338 6,454 1,668 1,716 1,482 1,581 1,675 Lamb Total red meat 14,603 15,172 3,813 4,081 3,501 3,677 3,913 Broilers 10,049 10,473 2,465 2,787 2,462 2,575 2,650 Other chicken Turkeys 1,761 1, Total poultry 11,979 12,455 2,925 3,318 2,948 3,063 3,126 Total meat & poultry 26,582 27,628 6,738 7,399 6,449 6,740 7, Weekly Cattle Slaughter Percent Change From Last Year /23/02 03/09/02 03/23/02 04/06/02 04/20/02 Jan. - Jan Apr Apr Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* Commercial slaughter/** Thousand head Cattle 11,215 11,352 2,779 3,056 2,615 2,737 2,944 Steers 5,390 5,498 1,377 1,450 1,256 1,329 1,463 Heifers 3,687 3, , Beef Cows Dairy Cows Bulls and stags Calves Sheep 1,133 1, Hogs 32,415 32,549 8,419 8,658 7,500 7,981 8,410 Barrows & gilts 31,279 31,451 8,154 8,369 7,252 7,705 8,125 Sows 1,021 1, Broilers 2,714,698 2,806, , , , , ,250 Turkeys 82,834 82,736 19,867 21,716 20,265 20,700 20, Weekly Hog Slaughter Percent Change From Last Year /23/02 03/09/02 03/23/02 04/06/02 04/20/02 Weekly Broiler Slaughter Percent Change From Last Year Apr Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle Calves Sheep Hogs Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef Pork Bellies Hams Total chicken Turkey Frozen eggs /* Estimates with exception of Cold Storage /** Slaughter classes are estimated /23/02 03/09/02 03/23/02 04/06/02 Weekly TurkeySlaughter Percent Change From Last Year /23/02 03/09/02 03/23/02 04/06/02 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook

12 LIVESTOCK PRICES Apr. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, cwt. Texas Panhandle Nebraska Direct Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking Utility boning Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. # lb lb lb Heifers: Med. # lb lb $/cwt Apr-01 Cattle Price Spread Stocker minus Fed Steer Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Hog prices Barrows and gilts National base 51-52% lean ( live equivalent = carcass x.74) Sows Iowa-S. Minn. #1-2, lbs Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice Ewes, Good Feeder lambs, Choice $/cwt GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Apr. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg N/A Grass Hay, U.S. Avg N/A Lamb Spread Feeder minus Slaughter Lamb $/cwt Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Apr-01 Steer - Hog Price Spread Fed Steer minus Live Hog Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 /* Estimates Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook

13 WHOLESALE PRICES 2001 Apr. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* Beef, Central U.S. Boxed beef cutout $/cwt Choice lb Choice lb Select lb Canner-Cutter Cows N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Bnls beef, 90% fresh Importd bnls. beef 90% frz Hide & offal value Veal carcass, lb. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Pork, Central U.S. Pork cutout composite Loins, lb. BI 1/4" trim Bellies, lb. skin on trmd Hams, lb. BI trmd. TS Trimmings, 72% fresh Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. Down, Choice lb., Choice Hog to Cutout Price Spread Pork + Offal - Live Hog $/cwt Apr-01 $/cwt Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Steer to Cutout Price Spread Beef + Offal - Fed Steer Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Apr-02 cents/lb. Broilers 12 City Avg Georgia dock Northeast Breast, boneless Breast, Ribs on Legs, whole Leg quarters Turkeys Eastern Region Toms, lb Hens, 8-16 lb Breast, 4-8 lb Drumsticks Wings, full cut Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro New York $/cwt Apr-01 Cents/lb Apr-01 Boxed Beef Cutout Spread Choice - Select lbs. Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Broiler Price Spread Boneless Breast - Whole Bird Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Apr-02 /* Estimates Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook

14 RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Oct-2001 Nov-2001 Dec-2001 Jan-2002 Feb-2002 Mar-2002 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice Beef - All Fresh Ground Beef Round Roast T-bone steak Pork Bacon Chops Sausage Broilers - Composite Whole, fresh Breast - bone in Leg - bone in Turkey; whole frozen Eggs, Gr A, Lg, Doz % 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Retail Beef Price Percent Change From Previous Month Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Retail Pork Price Percent Change from Previous Month -2.0% Price indexes =100 CPI - All All food All meat Beef & veal Pork Poultry Price Spreads Cents / retail lb. Beef Farm to wholesale Wholesale to retail Farmers share (%) Pork Farm to wholesale Wholesale to retail Farmers share (%) Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers Retail to consumer Turkey Eggs Cents/doz % 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Composite Broiler Price Percent Change from Previous Month Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Retail Turkey Price Percent Change from Previous Month 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% Mar-01 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook

15 Cumulative U.S. Livestock & Meat Trade Jan. - Jan. - Jan. - Jan Feb-2001 Feb Feb-2001 Feb-2002 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Pork Imports Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Australia 1,025,327 1,151, , ,979 Canada 737, , , ,234 New Zealand 639, , ,223 79,746 Denmark 147, ,106 22,091 17,088 Canada 918, , , ,004 Poland 23,998 23,976 4,323 2,915 Brazil 173, ,556 20,911 23,470 Netherlands 10,749 8,433 1,636 1,146 Argentina 130,773 99,099 19,011 12,331 Hungary 8,722 6,814 1, Central America 70,232 70,103 12,992 13,123 Other 37,965 25,372 4,676 3,911 Uruguay 62,237 41,004 12,003 1,320 Total 966, , , ,978 Mexico 10,890 12,166 1,970 2,688 Other Total 3,031,216 3,161, , ,678 Beef & Veal Pork Exports Exports Japan 582, , , ,689 Japan 1,112,417 1,004, , ,544 Canada 138, ,153 22,935 32,782 Canada 253, ,270 38,566 42,315 Mexico 291, ,755 62,208 57,743 Mexico 516, ,133 96,981 90,120 Russia 27,223 82,959 11,229 7,427 South Korea 384, ,639 63, ,938 South Korea 41,842 38,685 3,563 6,698 Caribbean 21,713 22,359 3,142 3,337 Hong Kong 43,735 27,913 3,643 4,883 Russia 25,839 7,400 1, Caribbean 15,356 23,611 2,467 2,526 Other 153, ,952 17,499 26,649 Other 145, ,029 19,919 16,705 Total 2,468,400 2,270, , ,776 Total 1,286,662 1,562, , ,453 Cattle Imports Head Hog Imports Head Mexico 1,222,569 1,130, , ,665 Canada 4,356,835 5,337, , ,433 Canada 964,522 1,306, , ,231 Under 110 lb 2,335,848 3,163, , ,157 Over 700 lbs. 849,307 1,143, , ,805 Total 4,357,564 5,337, , , lbs. 30,089 45,679 1,515 32,671 Total 2,187,106 2,436, , ,896 Hog Exports Total 69,228 64,044 2,891 33,717 Cattle Exports Mexico 126, ,434 16,082 23,130 Broiler Exports Ready to cook, 1,000 lbs. Canada 349, ,411 58,664 28,164 Japan 229, ,421 28,960 13,008 Total 481, ,957 75,168 51,467 Mexico 350, ,932 61,041 73,037 Hong Kong 1,352,565 1,326, , ,911 Lamb Imports Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Singapore 54,399 50,042 9,729 6,554 Australia 58,400 67,774 8,475 10,811 Canada 168, ,065 26,305 25,370 New Zealand 35,349 39,576 5,643 6,569 Russia 1,262,215 2,304, , ,394 Total 95, ,204 14,412 17,394 Latvia 308,271 97,703 22,977 10,313 Other 1,664,999 1,613, , ,792 Mutton Imports Total 5,391,882 6,185,921 1,076, ,380 Total 34,342 37,508 7,075 9,019 Turkey Exports Lamb and Mutton exports Mexico 234, ,021 39,595 37,879 Total 4,903 6,520 1, Canada 9,838 11,311 1,340 1,713 South Korea 9,449 16,906 2,398 2,305 Customs Service (beef/veal) Product wt., metric tons Russia 52,502 80,769 11,721 11,749 Hong Kong 42,949 36,246 5,281 10,880 YTD imports under WTO 04/24/01 04/22/02 % of quota Other 96, ,425 18,585 14,413 Canada 102, ,401 NA Total 445, ,678 78,920 78,940 Mexico 782 1,204 NA TRQ Countries 171, , Australia 79,751 95, Shell 1,000 doz New Zealand 75,770 47, Egg Exports Argentina 3, Canada 30,127 32,266 3,216 2,342 Uruguay 5, Japan 4,292 3, Japan Other 59,626 56,013 7,640 10,020 Other 7,139 8, Total 94,046 91,304 11,044 12,544 Total 275, ,293 NA

16 Monthly U.S. Livestock and Meat Trade Beef & Veal Imports Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Australia 55,957 82, ,214 92,576 92, , , , , ,545 1, ,645 37,333 New Zealand 55,173 65,415 52,485 57,493 73,555 70,087 46,021 22,882 20,097 24,731 45,542 40,965 38,780 Canada 75,576 79,323 65,521 83,497 90,994 85,404 93,648 87,485 95,336 82,860 72,160 84,324 78,680 Brazil 7,825 6,173 14,050 16,401 21,757 13,413 10,993 9,994 18,181 18,051 13,632 11,714 11,756 Argentina 10,179 10,355 6,659 5,692 6,397 8,671 9,516 6,506 8,257 9,924 8,111 6,608 5,723 Central America 7,142 6,332 3,676 6,262 4,799 2,293 5,637 6,535 8,038 6,082 7,457 5,288 7,835 Uruguay 6,522 8,000 11,619 3,378 1,093 1, ,012 1, Mexico ,257 1,130 1, ,200 1,038 1,040 1,439 1,249 Other Total 219, , , , , , , , , , , , ,295 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 77,023 96,134 82,124 90,790 89,921 89,057 95,091 92,882 88,942 61,843 54,147 60,457 59,087 Canada 15,774 17,723 18,256 18,638 19,499 19,655 16,747 19,218 19,212 22,066 23,691 23,891 18,424 Mexico 48,668 38,203 37,178 41,273 36,688 41,247 46,798 38,661 45,194 55,341 54,570 53,783 36,337 Korea, Rep. 19,874 18,121 12,598 12,674 17,246 19,982 22,723 41,569 41,552 42,645 53,438 56,701 47,237 Caribbean 1,296 2,320 2,138 1,774 1,881 1,521 1,956 2,287 1,885 1,492 1,963 1,598 1,740 Russia 1,954 1, , Other 8,632 9,574 9,124 8,104 8,313 9,706 11,197 10,217 14,863 14,769 11,586 11,814 14,835 Total 173, , , , , , , , , , , , ,484 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 122, , ,879 92,391 45,168 30,840 35,888 38,625 87, , , , ,294 Canada 86, , , , , , , , , ,984 84, , ,186 Over 700 lbs. 78, , ,836 91,807 93,715 92, , , , ,309 61,092 90, , lbs ,009 5,896 2,939 3,837 2, ,713 9,735 8,872 13,557 19,114 Total 208, , , , , , , , , , , , ,480 Cattle Exports Mexico 8,250 9,289 9,828 15,968 12,246 11,332 15,175 11,530 14,772 14,381 12,831 9,049 14,081 Canada 28,690 26,525 8,868 12,938 13,163 10,701 8,717 8, ,233 26,220 17,339 14,991 13,173 Total 37,041 36,381 19,678 29,497 25,977 22,447 24,128 19, ,015 41,710 30,958 24,050 27,417 Lamb Imports Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Australia 3,993 8,252 5,392 5,445 6,655 6,702 3,771 4,652 5,203 6,102 7,123 6,022 4,789 New Zealand 3,111 3,538 4,652 3,105 4,636 3,234 1,801 2,051 3,045 2,848 5,023 3,078 3,491 Total 7,316 11,892 10,273 8,599 11,291 9,940 5,606 6,726 8,320 8,999 12,146 9,100 8,294 Mutton Imports Total 3,179 3,528 5,339 3,666 4,591 2,870 2,279 1,601 1,811 2,033 2,715 4,556 4,463 Lamb and mutton exports Total

17 Monthly U.S. Livestock and Meat Trade, continued Feb-2001 Mar-2001 Apr-2001 May-2001 Jun-2001 Jul-2001 Aug-2001 Sep-2001 Oct-2001 Nov-2001 Dec-2001 Jan-2002 Feb-2002 Pork Imports Carcass wt., 1,000 lbs. Canada 52,038 62,776 50,325 59,075 59,401 64,370 75,555 70,198 84,625 71,070 56,624 63,764 65,470 Denmark 12,394 11,214 4,540 4,015 10,620 15,470 12,838 8,644 11,854 9,791 9,028 7,382 9,705 Poland 2,494 2,429 1,598 1,679 1,678 2,083 1,505 1,718 2,601 1,888 2,474 1,329 1,586 Netherlands 451 1, ,054 1, Hungary Other 2,244 2,372 1,100 1,219 1,140 2,286 1,712 2,085 2,767 2,839 3,176 1,822 2,089 Total 70,424 80,808 58,152 66,916 73,902 85,519 92,618 83, ,875 86,873 72,907 75,293 79,685 Pork Exports Japan 63,234 70,908 66,853 90,889 61,863 46,954 45,343 43,161 62,907 73,880 58,031 67,018 61,671 Canada 12,592 21,356 17,779 17,712 18,326 12,391 12,373 14,790 12,893 20,312 15,287 15,224 17,558 Mexico 30,250 27,094 18,353 24,941 27,111 26,125 31,506 22,529 26,070 28,066 24,751 34,339 23,403 Russia 5,775 4,816 12,568 13,782 11,872 6,120 2,021 2,208 4,019 9,187 5,136 3,857 3,571 Korea, Rep 1,475 1,702 3,565 3,705 2,934 2,998 3,429 3,786 4,243 4,688 4,072 2,817 3,882 Hong Kong 1,881 2,818 2,918 2,552 1,420 1,786 4,074 2,204 2,082 1,898 2,517 1,552 3,331 Caribbean 1,683 1,702 2,675 2,512 2,186 2,268 2,055 1,865 1,588 2,617 1, ,653 Other 11,700 13,785 17,146 13,176 10,956 9,766 12,191 7,030 11,594 12,301 13,166 7,836 8,870 Total 128, , , , , , ,991 97, , , , , ,938 Hog Imports Head Canada 371, , , , , , , , , , , , ,424 Under 110 lb 221, , , , , , , , , , , , ,429 Total 371, , , , , , , , , , , , ,424 Hog Exports Total 759 1, ,766 3,129 3,781 4,920 5,289 7,513 8,447 24,579 21,060 12,657 Broiler Exports Ready to cook, 1,000 lbs. Japan 10,644 17,619 18,679 19,996 39,807 24,582 19,751 12,736 14,771 15,327 24,194 9,686 3,322 Mexico 28,753 23,459 24,285 32,613 34,848 27,816 37,032 30,554 35,460 38,888 34,935 36,046 36,991 Hong Kong 119, , , ,831 93, , , , , ,338 95,749 55,218 82,693 Singapore 4,428 4,557 7,781 3,781 2,341 2,308 3,063 3,882 4,076 6,076 2,448 2,707 3,847 Canada 13,001 13,691 14,572 15,480 16,227 14,379 13,638 15,194 14,069 17,026 16,484 12,553 12,818 Russia 131, , , , , , , , , , , , ,556 Latvia ,172 9,104 11,446 10,174 5,159 15,049 5,998 4,623 10,321 9,178 1,134 Other 177, , , , , , , , , , , , ,177 Total 485, , , , , , , , , , , , ,537 Turkey Exports Mexico 18,273 12,807 11,448 19,665 23,863 11,624 21,795 18,390 15,141 24,057 21,637 17,025 20,854 Canada ,289 1,065 1,295 1,139 1, S. Korea 1, ,147 1,566 1,045 2,224 2,030 1,094 1,517 1,410 1,518 1,130 1,175 Russia 6,589 15,137 6,071 8,053 7,254 4,563 8,474 5,710 6,680 4,309 2,798 3,474 8,275 Hong Kong 2,912 4,241 3,134 1,626 3,019 2,606 4,139 2,325 2,011 3,279 4,585 4,543 6,337 Other 9,564 13,076 10,104 9,011 6,622 8,836 13,666 12,494 10,564 10,257 9,211 6,148 8,266 Total 39,112 46,607 32,535 40,613 42,636 30,840 51,394 41,078 37,206 44,449 41,400 33,217 45,723 Shell Egg Exports 1,000 doz. Canada 1,689 2,395 2,861 3,149 3,080 2,581 3,124 3,115 2,635 3,327 2,783 1,166 1,176 Japan Other 3,400 4,366 3,763 4,717 5,113 5,560 4,371 4,375 6,088 5,684 4,336 4,481 5,539 Total 5,209 6,764 6,626 7,868 8,196 8,498 8,107 8,005 9,160 9,422 7,615 5,765 6,779 For further information: Dale Leuck (202) , or Mildred Haley (202)

18 U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 140, , ,817 12,059 11,108 12,384 12,156 Milk cows (20 States) Thou. 7,734 7,799 7,746 7,784 7,764 7,743 7,740 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 18,109 18,534 18,437 1,549 1,431 1,599 1,571 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 162, , ,336 14,003 12,894 14,370 14,083 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt Class III (cheese milk) 3.5% fat Dol./cwt Class IV (butter-powder milk) 3.5% fat Dol./cwt NA Slaughter cow price, WI Dol./cwt Wholesale prices: Butter, Central States 1/ Ct/lb American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb Barrels Ct/lb Nonfat dry milk, Central States Ct/lb Retail prices: Consumer Price Index = All food = Dairy products = Fluid milk Dec 1997= Other dairy products Dec 1997= Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 1, , , American cheese Mil. lb 3, , , Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 4, , , Frozen products 2/ Mil. gal. 1, , , All products (m.e.-fat) Mil. lb 103, , ,286 8,843 8,140 8,784 8,763 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 1, , , Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb Commercial American cheese Mil. lb Other cheese Mil. lb Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk Mil. lb All commercial (m.e.-fat) Mil. lb 5,274 6,143 6,871 6,871 7,779 8,280 8,407 All commercial (m.e.-skim) Mil. lb 5,914 8,047 8,838 8,838 8,808 8,873 8,605 All Government (m.e.-fat) Mil. lb All Government (m.e.-skim) Mil. lb 1,115 1,566 6,028 6,028 6,606 6,929 7,861 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 1,311 1,298 1, American cheese Mil. lb 3,543 3,588 3, Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 4,672 4,964 4, Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb All products: m.e.-fat Mil. lb 164, , ,418 13,357 12,610 14,475 14,089 Milkfat Mil. lb 6,049 6,224 6, Skim solids Mil. lb 13,636 13,959 14,158 1,171 1,082 1,223 1,196 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb Cheese Mil. lb Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb All products (m.e.-fat) Mil. lb All products (m.e.-skim) Mil. lb 6,455 8,613 5, Imports: All products (m.e.-fat) Mil. lb 4,772 4,445 5, All products (m.e.-skim) Mil. lb 4,618 4,389 4, International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 1,506 1,367 1,391 1,295 1,275 1,275 1,400 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 1,332 1,896 2,019 2,159 2,119 2,100 2,025 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June / Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. NA=Not available m.e.-fat (skim) = Milk equivalent, fat (skim solids)basis

19 U.S. dairy situation at a glance (continued) May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 12,647 12,052 12,025 11,754 11,376 11,756 11,492 12,008 12,272 11,365 12,778 7,749 7,751 7,746 7,735 7,730 7,726 7,739 7,750 7,745 7,744 7,745 1,632 1,555 1,552 1,520 1,472 1,522 1,485 1,549 1,585 1,468 1,650 14,646 13,952 13,882 13,564 13,124 13,616 13,305 13,897 14,250 13,193 14, NA NA NA NA 9,293 8,769 8,593 8,346 8,139 8,637 8,223 8,756 9,260 8,585 NA NA ,778 9,346 9,954 10,018 9,001 8,755 8,167 6,873 7,047 8,229 9,147 8,660 8,767 9,429 9,349 8,595 8,410 7,966 7,685 8,220 8,321 8, ,599 8,779 9,151 9,429 9,632 9,552 9,178 8,869 9,070 9,122 9, NA NA NA NA 14,379 13,958 14,298 15,060 13,580 14,632 14,986 13,994 13,376 12,517 NA NA 1,233 1,143 1,177 1,228 1,150 1,241 1,168 1,145 1,189 1,036 NA NA NA 1,445 1,508 1,559 1,565 1,525 1,391 1,284 1,175 1,180 1,163 1,144 2,105 2,119 2,089 2,077 2,125 1,875 1,771 1,668 1,597 1,496 1,368