Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

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Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 19-11 Released September 26, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Breeding inventory, at 5. million head, was up 2 from last year, and up 1 from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.4 million head, was down 3 from last year, but up 7 from last quarter.

1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: Released September 26, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Hog Inventory Down 2 Percent United s inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2014 was 65.4 million head. This was down 2 from September 1, 2013, but up 6 from June 1, Breeding inventory, at 5. million head, was up 2 from last year, and up 1 from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 59.4 million head, was down 3 from last year, but up 7 from last quarter. The June-August 2014 pig crop, at 29.5 million head, was down 1 from Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, up 1 from The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was for the June-August period, compared to last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.00 for operations with 1- hogs and pigs to for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory United s: September 1 Million head

United s hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the September-November 2014 quarter, up 4 from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2013, and up slightly from 2012.

2 United s hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the September-November 2014 quarter, up 4 from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2013, and up slightly from Intended farrowings for December-February 2015, at 2.87 million sows, are up 4 from 2014, and up 3 from The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 of the total United s hog inventory, unchanged from last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2013 through June 2014 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an adjustment of less than two and one half was made to the March 2014 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one was made to the June 2014 total inventory. An adjustment of less than four was made to the December-February 2014 pig crop. This report was approved on September 26, Secretary of Agriculture Designate Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson James M. Harris 2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

3 Contents Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 2013 and Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 2013 and Quarterly Litter Rate United s... 6 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: June-August Quarterly Sows Farrowed United s... 7 Quarterly Pig Crop United s... 7 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March 1, 2013 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March 1, 2013 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June 1, 2013 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June 1, 2013 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September 1, 2013 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September 1, 2013 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December 1, 2012 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December 1, 2012 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 2013 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 2013 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 2013 and Statistical Methodology Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates Information Contacts Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 3

4 Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 2013 and 2014 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item March 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () 65,072 5,836 59,236 61,4 5,1 55,643 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds... 1 pounds and over... 18,2 16,251 13,169 10,5 17,336 15,487 12,538 10,281 June 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 65,188 5,884 59,304 61,583 5,5 55,728 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds... 1 pounds and over... 19,135 17,078 12,414 10,678 17,9 16,071 11,491 10,166 September 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 66,6 5,816 61,0 65,361 5,0 59,441 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds... 1 pounds and over... 19,824 17,8 12,584 10,725 19,517 17,658 12,147 10,118 December 1 inventory 1 All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 64,7 5,7 59,018 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under 50 pounds pounds pounds... 1 pounds and over... 18,389 16,0 12,576 11,2 1 May not add due to rounding. 4 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

5 Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item Sows farrowing December-February March-May... December-May 1... of 2015 as of 2014 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () () () 2,813 2,5 5,9 2,788 2,6 5,5 2,765 2,7 5,562 2,870 June-August... September-November 3... June-November ,1 2,888 5,810 2,8 2,7 5,670 2,7 2,8 5,7 Pig crop December-February 1... March-May... December-May ,037 29,712 57,749 28,0 28,1 57,020 26,336 27,361 53,6 June-August... September-November... June-November... 29,587 29,319 58,6 29,862 28,253 58,115 29,539 Pigs per litter December-February 1... March-May... December-May 1... (number) (number) (number) (number) () () () June-August... September-November... June-November December preceding year. 2 Intentions for Intentions for Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: 2013 and 2014 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Pig crop 2013 December-February 2... March-May... June-August... September-November head -4 head Pigs per litter on operations having head 1,000-1,9 head 2,000-4,9 head 5,000+ head (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) (number) December-February 2... March-May... June-August... September-November Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2 December preceding year. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 5

6 Quarterly Litter Rate United s Number head Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation United s: June-August 2014 Number head All ,000-1,9 2,000-4,9 5, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

7 Quarterly Sows Farrowed United s Million head Quarterly Pig Crop United s Million head Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 7

8 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () , , , 3,2 19,0 1, ,0 2,410 2,610 7, ,0 3,0 18,4 1, ,0 1,9 2,600 6, ,600 3,550 20, 1,0 1,060 7,650 2,0 3,000 8, ,250 3, 19,500 1,630 1,000 7,500 2, 3,000 7,0 91 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,5 1,8 1, ,830 1,520 1,015 1, , 2,2 1,140 1, ,000 1,0 1, 1, Other s ,586 2,528 3,012 2,4 United s... 5,836 5,1 59,236 55,643 65,072 61,4 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds pounds pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,2 0 4, ,370 1, ,000 1, , , ,630 1, , , ,8 1, 8 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s United s... 18,2 17,336 16,251 15,487 13,169 12,538 10,5 10,281 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 8 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

9 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () , , ,150 3,230 18,0 1,6 8 7,220 2,300 2,650 8, ,810 3,230 18, 1, ,0 2,070 2,610 6, ,650 3,500 20,000 1,860 1,000 7,0 2,650 3,050 8,0 6 4,300 3,500 19, 1, ,650 2,450 3,000 7, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,0 1,830 1, ,815 1,460 1,010 1, , 2,240 1,120 1, ,0 1,8 1, 1, Other s ,654 2,673 3,088 3,083 United s... 5,884 5,5 59,304 55,728 65,188 61,583 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds pounds pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,330 1,010 4, ,540 1, , , 8 4, , ,6 1, , , ,020 1,1 0 5, , , , , , , , , , , , 440 1, , Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s United s... 19,135 17,9 17,078 16,071 12,414 11,491 10,678 10,166 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 9

10 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Breeding Market Total (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () , , , 3, 19,0 1, ,150 2,650 2,650 8, ,040 3, 19,670 1, , 2,410 2,660 7, ,600 3,700 20,0 1,820 1,050 7,700 3,000 3,050 9, ,550 3,550 20,700 1,820 1,010 7,650 2,0 3,050 8,400 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,5 1,7 1, ,8 1,5 1,040 1, ,0 2,210 1,140 1, ,060 2,020 1,140 1, Other s ,745 2,7 3,166 3,211 United s... 5,816 5,0 61,0 59,441 66,6 65,361 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September 1, 2013 and 2014 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds pounds pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 2 1,330 1,0 5, ,450 1,1 0 3, , , ,540 1, ,010 1,2 1,040 6, , , ,2 1,000 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s ,009 1, United s... 19,824 19,517 17,8 17,658 12,584 12,147 10,725 10,118 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. 10 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

11 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total 2013 as of as of as of 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () , , 3,520 19,570 1, ,0 2,400 2,620 8, ,050 3,370 19,230 1,5 0 7,250 2,405 2,660 7, ,600 3,0 20,600 1,0 1,0 7,650 2,0 3,000 8,0 6 4,550 3,650 20, 1,0 1,060 7,0 2,0 3,050 8,500 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,8 1,8 1,040 1, ,030 1, , ,050 2,300 1,140 1, , 1,0 1,0 1, Other s ,565 2,613 2,9 3,025 United s... 5,819 5,7 60,405 59,018 66,224 64,7 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December 1, 2012 and 2013 [Weight groups may not add to market hogs and pigs due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under 50 pounds pounds pounds 1 pounds and over (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) 1,2 1,040 5, , 1, , ,250 1,010 4, ,650 1, ,600 1, 1,010 6, , ,0 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,600 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s United s... 19,2 18,389 16,2 16,0 12,614 12,576 11,741 11,2 1 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 11

12 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of 2014 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () ,4 1,289 4, ,1 1,863 1,733 4, ,450 1, 4, ,888 1,638 1,741 3, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , Other s ,1 1,0 United s... 2,788 2,765 2, Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold ,0 26,336 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () ,5 1,231 4, , 1,8 1,720 4, ,4 1,156 4, ,021 1,647 1,733 3, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , Other s ,046 1, United s... 2,6 2,7 1 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s ,1 27, Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

13 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 2013 and 2014 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () ,550 1,263 5, ,132 2,028 1,7 4, ,601 1,372 5, ,038 1,911 1,3 4, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , Other s ,128 1,914 United s... 2,8 2,7 1 Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 2 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s ,862 29,539 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of 2012 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) () ,450 1,3 5, ,068 1,915 1,7 4, ,3 1,307 4, ,132 1,4 1,774 4,228 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , Other s ,1 2,004 United s... 2,888 2,7 2, Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold ,319 28,253 2 Intentions. 3 Individual estimates not available for the 34 Other s. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 13

14 Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 2013 and 2014 [December preceding year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Month December... January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September... October... November... Sows farrowing 1 Pigs per litter Pig crop 1 (1,000 head) (1,000 head) (number) (number) (1,000 head) (1,000 head) ,265 9,376 9,458 9,744 9,510 9,668 9,9 9,881 10,002 9,6 9,423 9,136 8,5 8,4 8,727 9,084 8,1 9,286 9,7 9,835 9,7 Total... 11,265 1 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding ,135 Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 7,0 United s producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September 2014, data were collected from about 6, operations, of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1, Estimating Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. 14 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014)

15 To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.2. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 65.4 million head by more than 1.2. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1. Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates [Based on data for the previous twenty quarters] Item All hogs and pigs... Root mean square error confidence level Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest Below latest Years Above latest () () (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (number) (number) , Pig crop , Expected farrowings Next quarter Following quarter Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) Travis Averill Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) Doug Bounds Hogs and Pigs... (202) Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) Tiffany Hora Livestock Slaughter... (515) Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) Evan Schulz Sheep and Goats... (202) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 2014) 15

16 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: Both national and state specific reports are available via a free subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit and in the Follow NASS box under Receive reports by , click on National or to select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (0) , 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632- to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C , by fax (202) or at program.intake@usda.gov.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 949-92 Released September 27, 208, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United