Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

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Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 949-92 Released September 27, 208, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA).

33 million head, was up 3 from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up 3 from last year, and up 4 from last quarter.

1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: Released September 27, 208, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Hog Inventory Up 3 Percent United s inventory of all hogs and pigs on September, 208 was.5 million head. This was up 3 from September, 207, and up 3 from June, 208. Breeding inventory, at 6.33 million head, was up 3 from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up 3 from last year, and up 4 from last quarter. The June-August 208 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up 3 from 207. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.9 million head, up 3 from 207. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 0.72 for the June-August period, compared to 0.65 last year. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory United s: September Million head

2 United s hog producers intend to have 3.6 million sows farrow during the September-November 208 quarter, up 2 from the actual farrowings during the same period in 207, and up 4 from 206. Intended farrowings for December-February 209, at 3.2 million sows, are up 2 from 208, and up 4 from 207. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 48 of the total United s hog inventory, up from 47 the previous year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 207 through June 208 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the June 208 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.4. The net revision made to the March 208 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.. A revision of less than 0. was made to the December 207-February 208 pig crop. The net revision made to the December 207 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3. A net revision of 0.2 was made to the September-November 207 pig crop. The net revision made to September 207 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3. A net revision of less than 0. was made to the June-August 207 pig crop. Special Note The December 208 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on December 20, 208 at 3:00 P.M. EST at Please contact the Livestock Branch at (202) or at hq_sd_lb@nass.usda.gov with any questions or concerns. This report was approved on September 27, 208. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Ted A. McKinney Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons 2 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

3 Contents Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 207 and Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 207 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March, 207 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March, 207 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June, 207 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June, 207 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September, 207 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September, 207 and Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December, 206 and Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December, 206 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 207 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 207 and Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November Statistical Methodology... 2 Reliability of September Hog Estimates... 2 Records by Quarter United s: 866 to Present... 3 Information Contacts... 3 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208) 3

4 Hogs and Pigs Inventory by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter United s: 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item March inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... (,000 head) (,000 head) () 70,70 6,098 64,603 72,833 6,20 66,623 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under and over... 20,407 7,862 4,435,8 2,082 8,282 4,94 2,37 June inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 7,00 6, 64,90 73,26 6,320 66,6 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under and over... 20,647 8,74 3,646,867 2,387 9,388 3,938 2,092 September inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 73,309 6,7 67,92,486 6,330 69,56 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under and over... 2,533 9,7 3,874 2,028 22,092 20,262 4,356 2,445 December inventory All hogs and pigs... Kept for breeding... Market... 73,445 6,79 67,266 Market hogs and pigs by weight groups Under and over... 2,482 8,594 4,005 3,84 4 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

5 Sows Farrowing, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter United s: [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Item Sows farrowing December-February 2... March-May... December-May... of 209 as of 208 (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () () () 2,927 2,8 5,8 2,986 3,04 5,9 3,055 3,2 6,76 3,5 June-August... September-November 3... June-November ,057 3,046 6, 3, 3,5 6,22 3,85 3,63 6,349 Pig crop December-February... March-May... December-May... 30,39 3,0 6,236 3,46 3,790 62,935 32,320 33,67 65, June-August... September-November... June-November... 32,33 32,372 64,703 33,0 33,456 66,530 34,59 Pigs per litter December-February... March-May... December-May... (number) (number) (number) (number) () () () June-August... September-November... June-November December preceding year. 2 Intentions for Intentions for Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November Monthly Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United s: December-November 207 and 208 [December preceding year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Month December... January... February... March... April... May... June... July... August... September... October... November... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head), ,036 5,003,060,020,027,069,030,07,033,023 8,072,07,032,078,048, ,0 0,309 0,337 0, 0,298 0,576,87 0,859,028,385,092 0,8 0,9 0,736 0,65,320 0,733,3,488,26,455 Total... 2,220 Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding ,466 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208) 5

6 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: March, 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , , ,70 3,770 20,600,5,000 7,840 2,655 2,885 8, ,7 3,790 2,4,890,0 7,930 2,9 3,030 8, , 4,0 2,600,0, 8,400 3, 3,300 9, 770 5,300 4,0 22,0 2,0, 8,0 3,4 3,4 8, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,465,655,040, ,70,725,090, ,6 2,,40, ,900 2,70,,660, Other s ,653 2,738 3,07 3,38 United s... 6,098 6,20 64,603 66,623 70,70 72,833 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: March, 207 and 208 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head),530,030 5, ,590, ,40 285, , ,640,455,040 3,,,0 6, , ,860,465,40 6, , , , 345, , ,360 40, , , , , ,90 535, 4 545,340 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s... 2, United s... 20,407 2,082 7,862 8,282 4,435 4,94,8 2,37 6 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

7 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: June, 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , , ,720 3,690 20,870,790,000 7,930 2, 2,9 8, ,7 3,700 2,560,8,0 7,920 3,040 3,070 7, , 3,0 2,900,0, 8,0 3, 3,400 8, ,3 3,0 22,600 2,040, 8,0 3,0 3,0 8, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,,,085, ,70,690,, ,700 2,020,90, ,900 2,,300,6, Other s ,68 2,72 3,090 3,26 United s... 6, 6,320 64,90 66,6 7,00 73,26 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: June, 207 and 208 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head), , ,60,360,005 3, , , ,60,5,0 3,370,530,40 6, , ,870,, 7, 290 2, , ,0 355, , , 3 220, , , , , , , 470 5,330 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s..., United s... 20,647 2,387 8,74 9,388 3,646 3,938,867 2,092 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208) 7

8 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: September, 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () , ,860 3,840 2,620,835,070 7,7 3,060 3,040 8, ,8 3,0 22,560,860, 8,020 3,285 3,020 8, ,400 4, 22,600 2,000,90 8,300 3,0 3,4 9, ,4 4, 23,600 2,030,220 8,600 3,7 3,4 9, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,670,765,090, ,60,820,90, ,8 2,220,,540, ,0 2,2,30,720, Other s ,772 2,76 3,89 3,6 United s... 6,7 6,330 67,92 69,56 73,309,486 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: September, 207 and 208 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head),5,0 5, ,630,485,05 3,400, 0 5, ,690,605,00 3,4 25,620, 7,20 5 2, ,0 40,560,230 7, , , , ,0 600, , , , ,700 0, 4 590, ,0 5, 5, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s..., United s... 2,533 22,092 9,7 20,262 3,874 4,356 2,028 2,445 8 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

9 Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory s and United s: December, 206 and 207 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Breeding Market Total 207 as of as of as of 206 (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () (,000 head) (,000 head) () 540, , ,560 3,830 2,70,745,020 7,930 2,665 2,985 8, ,870 3,740 2,0,945,070 7,930 2,0 3,70 8, , 4, 22,,90,30 8,0 3, 3,400 9, ,400 4,000 22,0 2,,90 8,0 3,400 3,600 9, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,0,70,, ,760,7,40, ,700 2,60,20, ,0 2,,,560, Other s ,65 2,686 3,035 3,0 United s... 6, 6,79 65,435 67,266 7,545 73,445 Market Inventory by Weight Group s and United s: December, 206 and 207 [Weight groups may not add to market inventory due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Under and over (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) 220,4,040 5, ,720, ,60,5 9 5, ,740,4,030 3,90,360,090 6,5 2,3 790,0 30,4,040 6,820 2, , , , , ,0 420, , ,0 4, , , , 4 660,5 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah Other s United s... 20,887 2,482 8, 8,594 3,786 4,005 2,660 3,84 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208) 9

10 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: December-February [December preceding year. May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,703,486 5, ,2 2,2 2,02 4, ,6,359 6, ,360 2,284 2, 4, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah , , , 9, Other s ,00,985 United s... 2,986 3,055 3, Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March, or had been sold. 2 Intentions ,46 32,320 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: March-May 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,690,48 5, ,420 2, 2,8 4, ,943,85 6, ,472 2,448 2,47 4, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,028 2, , ,94 536, Other s ,9 2,002 United s... 3,04 3,2 Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June, or had been sold ,790 33,67 0 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

11 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: June-August 207 and 208 [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,849,3 5, ,420 2,385 2,24 4, ,769,33 6, ,40 2,665 2,09 4, Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,038 2,73 54, , , Other s ,058 2,08 98 United s... 3, 3, Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September, or had been sold ,0 34,59 Sows Farrowing, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop s and United s: September-November [May not add due to rounding] Colorado... Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Michigan... Minnesota... Missouri... Nebraska... North Carolina... Sows farrowing Pigs per litter Pig crop as of 206 (,000 head) (,000 head) (,000 head) () (number) (number) (,000 head) (,000 head) () ,6,442 5, ,472 2, 2,088 4, ,836,3 6, ,607 2,444 2,282 4,692 Ohio... Oklahoma... Pennsylvania... South Dakota... Texas... Utah ,008 2, , ,0 2,40, Other s ,03 2,048 United s... 3,046 3,5 3, Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December, or had been sold. 2 Intentions ,372 33,456 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

12 Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 6,0 United s producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large operations were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September 208, data were collected from about 4,0 operations, 73 of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting, mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September, 208. Estimating Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each regional field office. National and survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is.3. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of.5 million head by more than.3. Chances are 9 out of 0 that the difference will not exceed 2.2. Reliability of September Hog Estimates [Based on data for the previous twenty quarters] Item All hogs and pigs... Root mean square error 90 confidence level Difference between first and latest estimate Average Smallest Largest Below latest Years Above latest () () (,000) (,000) (,000) (number) (number) ,726 9 Pig crop , 3 6 Expected farrowings Next quarter Following quarter Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208)

13 Records by Quarter United s: 866 to Present [This table provides data users with record high estimates of all hogs and pigs, market hogs, pig crop, and pigs per litter since each data series began] Item Estimate Record high Series began All hogs and pigs March... June... September... December... (,000 head) (year) (year) 72,833 73,26,486 83, Market March... June... September... December... 66,623 66,6 69,56 67, Pig crop December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November... 32,320 33,67 34,59 33, Pigs per litter December-February... March-May... June-August... September-November... December preceding year. (number) (year) (year) Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch... (202) Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section... (202) Sherry Bertramsen Livestock Slaughter... (202) Holly Brenize Sheep and Goats... (202) Donnie Fike Dairy Products... (202) Heidi Gleich Cattle, Cattle on Feed... (202) Mike Miller Milk Production and Milk Cows... (202) Seth Riggins Hogs and Pigs... (202) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (September 208) 3

14 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: Both national and state specific reports are available via a free subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit and click on National or in upper right corner above search box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (0) , 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at or at any USDA office, or call (866) to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C , by fax (202) or at program.intake@usda.gov.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs ISSN: 19-11 Released September 26, 2014, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United