IHS Automotive. The Electric Light Vehicle Report. SupplierBusiness. Sectoral Report Edition supplierbusiness.com

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2 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light Vehicle Report Sectoral Report 2013 Edition supplierbusiness.com

3 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light-Vehicle Report Contents Introduction... 7 Uncertainty and scenarios... 8 Global and local considerations Grid connectivity, batteries and business models A brief history of electric vehicles Electric drive as part of a range of powertrain solutions Market Drivers Fuel economy and CO 2 emissions The United States The European Union Japan China Other countries Fuel costs as a driver for grid-connected vehicles Energy security Incentives for grid-connected vehicles The United States The European Union China Japan South Korea Canada India Market Challenges Recharging infrastructure Vehicle manufacturers Charging facilities Recharging technology companies Wireless charging technology Grid capacity Management Charging Standards Cost Issues Range Recharging time Resource supplies Lithium Rare earth elements Potential vehicle technology issues Enabling Technologies Batteries and energy storage Energy and power density Cycle life Battery costs Cost breakdown for lithium-ion batteries Lithium ion battery construction IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND LEGAL DISCLAIMER 2013 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at customercare@ihs.com, IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners Edition IHS

4 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light-Vehicle Report Cathodes Lithium Cobalt Oxide - LiCo Lithium Manganese Oxide Spinel - LiMn Lithium Iron Phosphate - LiFeP Lithium (NMC) - Nickel Manganese Cobalt - LiNiCo Mn Future cathode development Anode Chemistries New anode technologies Graphene based anode technology CoS2 hollow spheres Cobalt Oxide Silicon based anode technology Nano-Tin Carbon Graphene Anodes Electrolytes and additives Electrolyte materials Separators Cell packaging Safety circuits Battery packaging Manufacturing issues and quality Chemistry development Metal-Air batteries Other battery chemistries Energy storage membrane Electric motors Direct-current (DC) Motors Asynchronous alternating-current (AC) motors Synchronous AC motors Switched reluctance motors Axial-Flux Motors In-wheel motors Electric corner modules Transmissions Antonov BorgWarner Fallbrook Technologies Getrag IAV Oerlikon Graziano and Vocis Wrightspeed Xtrac Zeroshift Range extenders Fuel cell range extenders Electronic components Electrically-driven ancillaries Power steering Climate control Regenerative braking Brakes Recharging Electric vehicle supply equipment Fast charging Battery exchange Edition IHS

5 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light-Vehicle Report Charging station networks Inductive charging EVSE suppliers New players, relationships and collaborations Public infrastructure development Private infrastructure development Integrated solutions Integrating the charging infrastructure through IT Market Dynamics and Forecast New markets Vehicle Market forecasts Appendix 1 Available Electric Vehicles Appendix 2 United States incentives for grid-connected vehicles Appendix 3 Supplier Profiles B456 Systems (formerly A123 Systems) AESC Aleees Amberjac Amperex Axion Power Blue Energy Japan BYD Continental Deutsche Accumotive Dow Kokam EIG Exide Technologies LG Chem Lithium Energy Japan SK Innovation Sumitomo Electric Valence Visteon Yazaki Figures Figure 1: Passenger Car Sales in 5 ASEAN Countries (units)... 7 Figure 2: Passenger Vehicle size and duty cycle aligned to powertrain... 8 Figure 3: Light-duty EV stock forecast under various scenarios... 9 Figure 4: IEA forecast for alternative powertrains Figure 5: Well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions by powertrain including source considerations Figure 6: Comparative drivetrain costing per percentage point CO 2 reduction Figure 7: Well-to-wheel powertrain costs relative to conventional Figure 8: Comparative drivetrain costing per percentage point CO 2 reduction Figure 9: The relative attractiveness of vehicle in China Figure 10: Different powertrains meet different needs Figure 11: Global enacted and proposed fuel economy standards Figure 12: Lifecycle emissions and fuel use per mile for light gasoline and electric cars Figure 13: Crude oil (Brent Spot monthly) 1987 to Figure 14: Comparison of average well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions of ICEs with those of EVs powered by the average EU electricity mix Figure 15: US petroleum product imports Edition IHS

6 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light-Vehicle Report Figure 16: SAE J1772 Connectors Figure 17: SAE J1772 Combined Plug Figure 18: WPT charging schematic Figure 19: Evatran s aftermarket available charging system Figure 20: A floor-mounted induction charge plate Figure 21: California summer peak loading with unmanaged EV charging scenario Figure 22: California summer peak loading with work and home EV charging scenario Figure 23: California summer peak loading with 50% acceptance of differential pricing for EV charging scenario Figure 24: California summer peak loading with differential pricing for EV charging scenario Figure 25: Rapidly converging powertrain costs Figure 26: Powertrain competitiveness in terms of fuel and battery costs Figure 27: Range expectations exceed typical driving distances Figure 28: Range of EVs launched lags expectations Figure 29: Energy density improvement over time Figure 30: European and US consumer expectations of plug-in hybrid range (miles) Figure 31: EV driving range as a function of ambient temperature Figure 32: 1990 US driving patterns (miles) Figure 33: Percentage of daily journeys (km) by country Figure 34: Charge time expectations by country Figure 35: Global lithium deposits Lithium Carbonate equivalents Figure 36: Lithium demand forecast to Figure 37: Projected REE demand at historical growth rates Figure 38: Inrekor lightweight EV chassis structure Figure 39: A graphic representation of vehicle range versus auxiliary load (HVAC) usage Figure 40: A simple comparison of electrical energy storage systems Figure 41: The energy density of different fuels Figure 42: Specific power (W/kg) versus specific energy (Wh/kg) Figure 43: Lithium-ion battery pack cost breakdown Figure 44: Nominal and usable costs for EV batteries Figure 45: Patent activity in lithium-ion batteries Figure 46: Cathode performance compromises Figure 47: Voltage versus capacity for some electrode materials Figure 48: Lithium-ion and nanotechnology roadmap Figure 49: Anode energy density for various anode technologies Figure 50: Silicon anode dimensional changes Figure 51: Lithium-ion battery construction Figure 52: Zinc-Air battery systems Figure 53: Theoretical maximum energy density for different cell chemistries Figure 54: Redox battery technology Figure 55: Typical torque and power comparisons Figure 56: A schematic of a 6/4 SRM design Figure 57: Hiriko Fold pre-production model Figure 58: Protean Electric s in-wheel electric drive modules Figure 59: Michelin ActiveWheel Figure 60: Optimum EV transmission ratios for each performance criterion Figure 61: IAV DrivePacEV Figure 62: Lotus range-extender system Figure 63: Continental regenerative braking unit Figure 64: Mazda regenerative braking using a supercapacitor Figure 65: Continental spindle-actuated electromechanical brake Figure 66: A summary of charging locations in the US Figure 67: A summary of charging locations in the Germany Figure 68: Different options for grid connection Edition IHS

7 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Electric Light-Vehicle Report Figure 69: The vehicle electrification value chain Figure 70: Changes and opportunities in the automotive value chain Figure 71: A Blink charger facility linked to Cisco s Home Energy Controller Figure 72: 2012 EV sales by country Figure 73: 2012 EV stock by country Figure 74: EV stock for selected countries according to EVI Tables Table 1: 2030 Global market shares of grid-connected vehicles by IHS scenario Table 2: Fuel chain efficiency rates for ICE and EV vehicles Table 3: Principal uses of selected rare earth oxides Table 4: Global estimates of demand for rare earth oxides Table 5: Cycles by chemistry (deep discharge) Table 6: Application cycle requirements Table 7: Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown Table 8: Battery cost evolution from 2010 with a CAGR of 14% Table 9: Four main types of cathode technology in use today (2010) Table 10: Comparison of typical carbon anode capacities Table 11: PHEV-EV lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) Table 12: Hybrid lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) Table 13: Global market for EV charging stations (thousands) Table 14: Potential roles within the charging infrastructure value chain Table 15: Comparison of emerging business models Table 16: Electric cars and light commercial vehicles Table 17: State incentives for grid-connected vehicles Edition IHS

8 IHS Automotive Sectoral Report SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Light Vehicle Report 2013 edition supplierbusiness.com

9 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report Contents Introduction... 7 Powertrain choices... 7 Consumer attitudes... 9 Development of the Plug-in Hybrid Market Cost and value considerations PHEV Environmental Performance Market drivers Emissions regulations The United States The European Union Japan China Other countries Fuel costs Criterion emissions The United States Japan Europe China Other countries Hybrid architectures Parallel hybrid architecture Series hybrid architecture Power split hybrid architecture Degrees of hybridisation Full Hybrid Mild or Assist Hybrids Plug-hybrids or dual mode Aftermarket conversions Hydraulic hybrid architecture Flywheel hybrid architecture Air hybrid Vehicle integration Hybrid technologies Higher voltage architecture Batteries and energy storage Energy and power density Cycle life Battery costs Cost breakdown for lithium-ion batteries Lithium ion battery construction Cathodes Future cathode development IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND LEGAL DISCLAIMER 2013 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at customercare@ihs.com, IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners. Month IHS

10 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report Anode Chemistries New anode technologies Electrolytes and additives Separators Cell packaging Safety circuits Battery packaging Manufacturing issues and quality Chemistry development Metal-Air batteries Other battery chemistries Super-capacitors and ultracapacitors Energy storage membranes Electric motors Direct-current (DC) Motors Asynchronous alternating-current (AC) motors Synchronous AC motors Switched reluctance motors Axial-Flux Motors In-wheel motors Integrated starter-generators (ISG) Belt-driven alternator-starters (BAS) Transmissions One-mode and two-mode hybrids Getrag FEV Fiat Powertrain IAV Jatco ZF Friedrichafen Regenerative braking systems and brake blending Grid connection and a recharging infrastructure Vehicle manufacturers Charging facilities Recharging technology companies Wireless charging technology Developing business models and challenges New players, relationships and collaborations Public infrastructure development Private infrastructure development Integrated solutions Integrating the charging infrastructure through IT Market development Market dynamics and forecasts Development of the plug-in hybrid market New business models for OEMs, grid companies and suppliers Market forecasts North America Europe Japan China Supplier Profiles B456 Systems (formerly A123 Systems) AESC Month IHS

11 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report Aleees Amberjac Amperex Axion Power Blue Energy Japan BYD Continental Deutsche Accumotive Dow Kokam EIG Exide Technologies LG Chem Lithium Energy Japan SK Innovation Sumitomo Electric Valence Visteon Yazaki Figures Figure 1: Roadmap for CO 2 reduction... 7 Figure 2: Cost estimates of marginal fuel economy improvement... 9 Figure 3: Carbon dioxide emissions versus cost per percentage fuel reduction Figure 4: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast Figure 5: US Annual reduction in GHG production through PHEV adoption in various scenarios Figure 6: Powertrain electrification 2010 to Figure 7: PHEV annual costs Figure 8: Global CO 2 (g/km) progress normalised to NEDC test cycle Figure 9: Fuel economy standards to 2015 for selected countries (US mpg) Figure 10: WTI crude oil prices (US$ per barrel, monthly average 2010 dollars), 2001 March Figure 11: US Regular Gasoline prices $/gallon, January 2011 to June Figure 12: US emissions standards for light-duty vehicles, to five years/50,000 miles (g/mile) Figure 13: Emissions standards timetable in selected countries Figure 14: NOx limits in the EU, Japan and the US, (g/kwh) Figure 15: PM limits in the EU, Japan and the US, (g/kwh) Figure 16: Hybrid electric vehicle drive configurations Figure 17: Charge depletion to charge sustaining transition for PHEV battery packs Figure 18: An early conversion for the PHEV Prius utilising 15 additional lead-acid batteries Figure 19: Hydraulic hybrid operation Figure 20: Torotrak s Flybrid flywheel and IVT system Figure 21: Hybrid price premium per 100,000 units Figure 22: Peugeot s air-hybrid architecture Figure 23: A comparison of air-hybrid architecture efficiency with other types Figure 24: Additional functions and changes in electrical architecture Figure 25: Additional functionality requires higher voltages 48 volts Figure 26: A simple comparison of electrical energy storage systems Figure 27: The energy density of different fuels Figure 28: Specific power (W/kg) versus specific energy (Wh/kg) Figure 29: Lithium-ion battery pack cost breakdown Figure 30: Patent activity in lithium-ion batteries Figure 31: Battery costs to OEMs at low volumes Figure 32: Cathode performance compromises Month IHS

12 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report Figure 33: Voltage versus capacity for some electrode materials Figure 34: Lithium-ion and nanotechnology roadmap Figure 35: Anode energy density for various anode technologies Figure 36: Silicon anode dimensional changes Figure 37: Lithium-ion battery construction Figure 38: Zinc-Air battery systems Figure 39: Theoretical maximum energy density for different cell chemistries Figure 40: Redox battery technology Figure 41: Ultracapacitor used to overcome temperature sensitivity to temperature of li-ion battery pack Figure 42: Ultracapacitor versus lithium-ion energy efficiency Figure 43: Ultra-capacitor components Figure 44: Technology roadmap for electric traction motors Figure 45: Typical torque and power comparisons Figure 46: A schematic of a 6/4 SRM design Figure 47: Axial Flux PM motors Figure 48: Mitsubishi MIEV Figure 49: Protean Electric s in-wheel electric drive modules Figure 50: Toyota THS power-split transmission Figure 51: 2-Mode transmission Figure 52: Cutaway of a 2-Mode transmission Figure 53: Getrag s 7DCT300 PowerShift transmission Figure 54: Schematic overview of GETRAG 7HDT300 torque-split hybrid Figure 55: Integrated electric motor cooling options Figure 56: The advantages of an integrated 48-volt motor solution Figure 57: Fuel efficiency comparison for ATs Figure 58: By-wire brake system layout with regeneration Figure 59: Mazda s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout Figure 60: Mazda s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout Figure 61: Mazda s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout Figure 62: WPT charging schematic Figure 63: Evatran s aftermarket available charging system Figure 64: Changes and opportunities in the automotive value chain Figure 65: The vehicle electrification value chain Figure 66: A Blink charger facility linked to Cisco s Home Energy Controller Figure 67: Grid connected vehicles bring changes and opportunities in the value chain Figure 68: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast to Figure 69: Global hybrid production forecast to Figure 70: Global hybrid production forecast to Figure 71: Global hybrid production forecast to Figure 72: US hybrid production forecast, Figure 73: European hybrid production forecast, Figure 74: European hybrid production forecast, Figure 75: Japan hybrid production forecast, Figure 76: China hybrid production forecast, Tables Table 1: Estimated fuel economy improvement potential and costs relative to Table 2: Japan emissions limits for light gasoline & LPG vehicles (g/km) Table 3: Japan emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km) Table 4: Euro 5 emissions limits for light gasoline vehicles (g/km) Table 5: Euro 5 emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km) Table 6: Cycles by chemistry (deep discharge) Month IHS

13 IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report Table 7: Application cycle requirements Table 8: Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown Table 9: Battery cost evolution from 2010 with a CAGR of 14% Table 10: Four main types of cathode technology in use today (2010) Table 11: Comparison of typical carbon anode capacities Table 12: PHEV-EV lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) Table 13: Hybrid lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) Table 14: Potential roles within the charging infrastructure value chain Table 15: Comparison of emerging business models Month IHS

14 SupplierBusiness The Automotive Fuel Cell Technology Report 2013 Edition

15 The Automotive Fuel Cell Technology Report CONTENTS Introduction... 6 Key drivers Energy costs and the environment Fuel Cells and the Automotive Industry Fuel cell technology Fuel cell types Alkaline Fuel Cells (AFC) Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC) Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFC) Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells (PAFC) Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) Regenerative Fuel Cells (RFC) Metal Air Fuel Cells (MAFC) Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) Technology progress Fuel cells in the electric powertrain FCEV cost development Hydrogen fuel and infrastructure Hydrogen production Hydrogen from coal Hydrogen production through electrolysis Hydrogen storage and infrastructure Hydrogen storage Hydrogen fuel tanks Future storage technologies Liquefied hydrogen Metal hydrides Chemical hydrogen storage Hydrolysis reactions Hydrogenation/dehydrogenation reactions New chemical approaches Carbon nanotube storage Electrolysis Integration with renewable energy Development of the automotive fuel cell market Daimler Ford General Motors Honda IHS Global Limited 3

16 The Automotive Fuel Cell Technology Report Hyundai-Kia Nissan Toyota Volkswagen OEM cooperative agreements TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1: A lightweight hydrogen fuel storage tank [Source: BMW]... 7 Figure 2: A hydrogen fuelling station in California [Source: Hydrogen Association]... 8 Figure 3: Well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions by powertrain including source considerations [Source: Eduardo Velasco Orosco, UAEM & GMM] Figure 4: Well-to-wheel powertrain costs relative to conventional [Source: Eduardo Velasco Orosco, UAEM & GMM] Figure 5: Technical hurdles overcome in the deployment of FCEVs [Source: EU, McKinsey] Figure 6: Molten carbonate fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] Figure 7: Phosphoric acid fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] Figure 8: Solid oxide fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] Figure 9: Proton exchange membrane fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] Figure 10: Fuel cell stack improvements [Source: GM] Figure 11: Platinum loadings for PEM fuel cells [Source: US DOE] Figure 12: Schematic representation of the functionality of a fuel cell [Source: PEMAS] Figure 13: System schematics for 2008 and 2009 fuel cell system [Source: US DOE] Figure 14: System schematics for 2010 and 2015 fuel cell systems [Source: US DOE].. 35 Figure 15: Net system cost versus annual production rate [Source: US DOE] Figure 16: Coal gasification process [Source: US DOE] Figure 17: Sulphur Iodine cycle for H 2 production [Source: Hydrogen Energy] Figure 18: Conventional electrolysis for H 2 production [Source: Hydrogen Energy] Figure 19: Commercially available solutions for on-board hydrogen storage [Source: US DOE] Figure 20: BMW s Cryo-compressed hydrogen storage system [Source: BMW] Figure 21: Hydrogen mass and cost comparison of compressed (700 bar) and cryocompressed (350 bar) storage [Source: BMW] Figure 22: a schematic of MOF-74 metal organic framework [Source: NIST] Figure 23: Mercedes-Benz F125 fuel cell plug-in hybrid [Source: Daimler] Figure 24: Molecular hydrogen storage in light element compounds [Source: US DOE] Figure 25: Schematics of nanotube structures [Source: Nanotechnologies] Figure 26: Schematic of a three-dimensional nanotube matrix [Source: RSC] Figure 28: European national initiatives for hydrogen infrastructure [Source: NOW] Figure 28: Publically accessible hydrogen refuelling stations Germany [Source: NOW] Figure 29: Planned development of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure in Germany [Source: NOW] Figure 30: Hydrogen refuelling site Oslo using two Hydrogenics electrlysers [Source: Hydrogenics] IHS Global Limited 4

17 The Automotive Fuel Cell Technology Report Figure 31: Honda s prototype solar hydrogen refuelling station in Los Angeles [Source: Honda] Figure 27: ITM Power s HFuel transportable hydrogen refuelling station [Source: ITM Power] Figure 28: OMV hydrogen refuelling site Stuttgart [Source: Daimler] Figure 29: Percentage energy generation from renewable sources [Source: Geocurrents] Figure 31: London hydrogen fuelling station used by fuel cell buses [Source: Air Products] Figure 32: A schematic for an artificial leaf [Source: Science Now] Figure 37: FECV and BEV contributions to CO2 reductions [Source: Various] Figure 38: Mercedes-Benz B-Class F-Cell [Source: Daimler] Figure 39: Daimler s F125!fuel cell hybrid concept [Source: Daimler] Figure 40: Fuel cell Chevrolet Equinox [Source: GM] Figure 42: Honda s Clarity fuel cell car [Source: Honda] Figure 41: Schematic of the Honda Clarity [Source: Honda] Figure 43: The first production model of Hyundai s ix35 fuel cell vehicle [Source: Hyundai-Kia] Figure 43: Toyota s FCV-R fuel cell concept car [Source: Toyota] Figure 45: OEM forecast fuel cell vehicle production [Source: IHS] Figure 46: Geographic forecast fuel cell vehicle production [Source: IHS] Table 1: A comparison of fuel cell technologies [Source: US DOE] Table 2: Technical targets for automotive applications [Source: US DOE] Table 3: A summary of system costs for 2010 and 2015 technologies at various manufacturing rates [Source: US DOE] Table 4: US hydrogen refuelling stations 2012 [Source: IHS Global Limited 5