It s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional Powertrain or xevs?

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE It s Time to Make a Trade-off, Traditional Powertrain or xevs? Oct 27, 2016 Shanghai Vivian Wang, Senior Analyst, vivian.wang@ihsmarkit.com Jiajia Wang, Senior Analyst, jiajia.wang@ihsmarkit.com 2016 IHS Markit. All 版权所有 Rights Reserved.

2 Table of Content Part I: Potential of traditional powertrain for better fuel consumption Key trend of China powertrain technology Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by vehicle segment Traditional PT technology Competition: JV Brand vs Local Brand Part II: Opportunity for xevs xevs market overview What happened in xevs market? What s approaching? What s next?

3 Part I: Potential of traditional powertrain for better fuel consumption 2016 IHS Markit 119

4 Key trend of China powertrain technology Passenger Car Engine - Mature technology with recognized trend - Deeper market penetration - From , still promising market for fuel consumption improvement - May affected by market expectation for BEV 100% TCI/VTCI Start/stop GDI/DI-CR 3 Cylinder Transmission - Fierce competition with uncertain future trend - From , DCT is expanding quickly with significant substitution effect for older Step-AT - In longer term, CVT and step-at still have opportunity to reshape the market structure AMT Automatic 100% CVT DCT EVT/Reduction Manual xevs - High cost and immature technology are still major constraints. With government subsides reduction, market expectation is unclear. - xevs is more sense as a leverage tool for CAFC calculation 100% Electric Hybrid-Full Hybrid-Mild 75% CAFC Phase IV CAFC Phase V 75% CAFC Phase IV CAFC Phase V 75% CAFC Phase IV CAFC Phase V 50% 50% 50% 25% 25% 25% 0% 0% 0%

5 Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by A/B segment 8.6% 50.6% 66.8% 6.7% 71.6% 47.9% 46.6% 2.8% 56.6% 8.5% 55.1% 59.8% TCI DI 3-Cylinder Start/stop Engine: Significant change on engine downsizing trend due to growth of GDI and turbocharging technology on A/B-segment vehicles. Low cost Stop/Start technology will still be good solution for entry vehicles electrification. 25.4% 23.7% 22.0% 20.2% 16.2% 10.4% 9.8% 6.3% 1.9% Step-AT CVT DCT Source: IHS VPaC Transmission: It is a trend that low-torque CVT and DCT in A/B segment take replacement 4AT. There is still big opportunity for the potential demand of CVT and DCT in the future.

6 Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by C segment Source: IHS VPaC 78.9% 68.7% 64.0% 64.6% 64.3% 51.9% 24.8% 26.2% 19.0% 19.3% 14.3% 0.5% TCI GDI 3 Cylinder Start/stop Engine: Turbocharging boosting and GDI technology will be widely used on C-segment vehicles beyond 2020 due to fuel economy demand under pressure of phase 4+ fuel consumption limit. 34.7% 21.8% 15.9% 18.4% 18.1% 11.3% 10.5% 30.7% 35.2% Step-AT CVT DCT Transmission: This is the most competitive market segment with 6AT, CVT, DCT seizing the share. It is a trend that DCT will probably become the most popular solution led by European OEMs and followed by almost all of the other OEMs except Japanese OEMs.

7 Fuel consumption improvement driven by traditional PT technology by D/E segment 86.7% 81.8% 83.3% 85.7% Engine: Transmission: Source: IHS VPaC 53.3% 55.7% 31.7% 69.3% 37.6% High penetration on D-and E-segment vehicles for turbocharging and GDI technology beyond % 44.0% 43.7% 29.4% 28.3% Multi-speed step-at will dominate this segment due to the larger torque range and customer preference. TCI GDI Start/stop Stop/Start will decline dramatically due to replacement of 48v mild hybrid for better fuel reductions. 13.7% 15.4% 9.1% 9.1% Step-AT CVT DCT Big-torque wet-clutch DCT is also testing the market, especially by European OEMs.

8 Traditional PT technology Competition: JV Brand vs Local Brand Engine - JV brand OEMs are still leading the market penetration of key engine technology while the gap with local brand is narrowing significantly. Transmission - For take rate of auto-shifting transmission, obvious gap is existing between the two parties. - Gap nurtures opportunities and expansion capacity in the future. TCI JV Brand Local Brand 61.8% 66.53% 66.2% 74.65% 28.76% 27.2% GDI 32.8% 68.3% 7.33% 52.64% 78.5% 67.75% S/S 3- cylinder engine 22.6% 0.9% 72.1% 4.99% 40.10% 55.1% 33.46% 23.7% 29.8% 0.94% 14.18% 19.89%

9 Part II: Opportunity for xevs 2016 IHS Markit 125

10 xevs Market Overview Units: Million 5 years CAGR Chinadefined NEVs xevs Whole PVs 2010~ % 131% 11% 2015~ % 71% 5% 2020~ % 30% 2% Electric Plug-in hybrid Full hybrid Mild hybrid China-defined NEVs + = xevs Source: IHS

11 What happened in xevs market? Source: IHS, Polk

12 What happened in xevs market? Source: Polk, Autohome

13 What is approaching? CAFC FC P IV 5.0L/100k V m W 134% CAFC corporate average 128% fuel consumption 2016 For EVs and 120% 2017 For energy saving models PHEVs with E range 50km fuel consumption 110% 2.8L/100km W W % W W W 2020 W 1.5 Others W Source: IHS

14 What is approaching? Different approach- one domestic OEM Mini Subcompact Compact Mid-Size Full-Size 2020 Most heavier models with traditional powertrain cannot meet CAFC target in All models with traditional powertrain miss fuel consumption target in Mainly rely on NEV models to reduce fuel consumption.. Source: IHS VPaC

15 What is approaching? Different approach- one JV OEM Compact Mid-Size Full-Size 2020 Half models are below 2016 CAFC target, 2018 are still under control, but 2020 will be a tough year. Optimize FC and restructure products portfolio. Introduce new energy technology with specific models to test market and increase NEV models year by year to enjoy super credit. Source: IHS VPaC

16 What s next?

17 What s next? Incentive program Regulations Consumers Government OEMs Subsidies Scenario A Scenario B Use ZEV credit as a tool to support CAFC system. Overemphasize ZEV credit.

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