Outlook for North American Production

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE Outlook for North American Production 9 September 2016 Detroit, Michigan Joe Langley, Principal Analyst, Automotive , joe.langley@ihsmarkit.com. All Rights Reserved.

2 Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016

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4 North America production Millions % 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% Y/Y % Change Production Issues Inventory Incentives Fleet Product age Product mix Retooling Outcomes Lower volume Downtime Sourcing shifts

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6 North America production Millions Legacy Production Production 1.4 Million Growth drivers 36 new programs All-new = 26 Unproven Segment squeeze Onshoring = 10 Proven Less risk Car = 47% Truck = 4% Utility = 49%

7 All-new programs Thousands US3 Asian4 German3 Other Domestic New = 9 Redesigns = 31 Utilities Offshoring X Transplants New = 27 Redesigns = 18 Portfolio expansion Onshoring Diversity

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9 North America production Millions Quality vs Quantity Downside Production ,000 units Inventory ,000 units Inventory ,000 units Delays Sourcing

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11 Union negotiations General Motors 2,000 per day Oshawa Ford 1,000 per day Oakville Strike 5,500 units per day Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 2,500 per day Brampton Windsor

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13 North America production 30% 20% 15% 54% Domestic Inventory Offshoring Cars Discontinuations 10% 0% -10% 2.8% -5.3% US3 Asian4 German3 Other Transplants Onshoring Portfolio expansion Trucks Exports

14 US Big-Three manufacturers Thousands GM Ford FCA Issues Inventory Incentives Fleet Age = 55 months Actions Launches = 31 Redesigns Missed targets Offshoring FCA: Dart and 200

15 Asian four manufacturers Thousands Toyota Honda Nissan Hyundai Issues Product mix Incentives Fleet Age = 40 months Actions Launches = 22 Localization Exports Capacity Hyundai: Expansion

16 German three manufacturers Thousands Volkswagen BMW Daimler Issues Exports Offshoring Growth targets Age = 51 months Actions Launches = 10 Redesigns Localization VW: Expansion COMPAS

17 Other manufacturers Thousands Subaru Mazda Tesla Issues Size and scale Cars Exports Age = 29 months Actions Launches = 7 All-new vehicles Tesla: Model 3 Subaru: Impreza

18 Car Thousands US3 A4 G3 O Upside Ford Focus Ford Mustang Honda Civic Nissan Sentra Nissan Versa Downside Dodge Charger Chevrolet Camaro Chevrolet Cruze Chevrolet Malibu Toyota Camry

19 Truck Thousands US3 A4 G3 O Upside GM-K2XX Pickup Nissan Frontier Ram ProMaster Toyota Tacoma Toyota Tundra Downside Ford F-150 Ford Transit GM-31XX GM-GMT610 Ram Pickup

20 Utility Thousands US3 A4 G3 O Upside GMC Terrain Honda CR-V Honda Pilot Nissan Kicks Volkswagen Tiguan Downside Chrysler Pacifica Dodge Journey Ford Explorer Jeep Grand Cherokee Nissan Pathfinder

21 Disruptive Toyota Honda Nissan Ford BMW Volkswagen Chevrolet Audi Lexus Mazda 138

22 New mobility manufacturers Tesla Model 3 Issues Tesla Atieva Faraday Apple Google When? NA Production Actions Conquest dependent Financial hurdles Size and scale Technology risk Competition

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