THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS CARS

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1 Index Table of Contents Table of Contents... i List of Figures... ix Executive summary Introduction to autonomous cars Definitions and classifications Brief history of autonomous cars Current state of self-driving cars and key stakeholders Automotive manufacturers Tier-1 automotive suppliers Technology companies Connectivity service providers Key market drivers Key market barriers The global passenger car market Car segments Passenger cars in use by region New passenger car registration trends Market trends Hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and all-electric vehicles Car sharing and personal transportation as a service User segments for autonomous driving Luxury segment Commuters Young drivers Paratransit Delivery fleets Transportation on demand Advanced driver assistance systems STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES i

2 2.1 Introduction to the most common ADAS Adaptive cruise control Cooperative adaptive cruise control Lane departure warning Lane keeping assist Autonomous emergency braking Collision avoidance system Blind spot monitor Rear cross traffic alert Forward cross traffic alert Turning assist Road sign detection Other ADAS Specific semi-autonomous use cases Parking assist Traffic jam assist and highway autopilot Platooning Autonomous car technologies Sensors Cameras Lidar Radar Ultrasonic and infrared sensors Inertial navigation system Telematics Mobile connectivity Location tracking Digital maps V2V and V2I communication Computing platform Sensor fusion Interpretation and decision making ii STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES

3 3.3.3 Computer vision Artificial intelligence Machine learning Deep learning Execution and related technologies Electronic control unit Human machine interface Driver monitoring systems Summary of the current state of autonomous car technologies Autonomous car initiatives Overview of current projects Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Overview of Jaguar Land Rover passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Volvo Car Group Overview of Volvo passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Tesla Motors Overview of Tesla passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Mercedes-Benz Overview of Mercedes-Benz passenger car models ADAS offerings STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES iii

4 4.5.3 The upcoming E-class models Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Audi Overview of Audi passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market BMW Overview of BMW passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market General Motors Overview of the main GM passenger car brands ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Strategic investments Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Ford Motor Company Overview of Ford passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Toyota Motor Corporation Overview of Toyota and Lexus passenger car models ADAS offerings iv STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES

5 Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Honda Motor Company Overview of Honda and Acura passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Hyundai Motor Group Overview of Hyundai and Kia passenger car models ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Renault-Nissan Alliance Overview of Nissan Motor Company Overview of Nissan and Infiniti passenger car models Overview of Renault Group Overview of Renault and Dacia passenger car models Nissan and ADAS developments Renault and ADAS developments Approach to autonomous cars Nissan and autonomous technology activities Renault and autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Overview of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles passenger car models ADAS offerings FCA and autonomous driving Groupe PSA Overview of Peugeot and Citroën passenger car models STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES v

6 ADAS offerings Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Google Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Google Chauffer software Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Apple Apple s vehicle project Uber Technologies Approach to autonomous cars Uber and autonomous cars Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Baidu Approach to autonomous cars Autonomous technology activities Competitive positioning in the autonomous car market Additional car OEM initiatives Car manufacturers not yet betting on autonomous car technology Supplier and technology company initiatives Autoliv Bosch Continental Delphi Automotive ZF TRW Mobileye Nvidia Velodyne LiDAR Additional supplier initiatives Regional developments vi STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES

7 5.1 USA European Union Germany United Kingdom Sweden China Japan South Korea Singapore Benefits of autonomous cars Safety Convenience Traffic efficiency Mobility Benefits for people unable to drive Public driverless fleets of cars Sustainability Electric autonomous vehicles Increased efficiency Impact on city infrastructure Barriers and challenges Technology reliability Mixed vehicle environment HMI challenges to accomplish Level Standards and collaborations Regulations and liabilities International conventions on road traffic Liability Public acceptance Car longevity Market forecasts and trends Car sales forecast STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES vii

8 8.2 Autonomous car sales forecast SAE Level SAE Level SAE Level SAE Level SAE Level Regional market developments SAE Level 2, Level 3 and non-driverless Level SAE Driverless Level Market drivers and barriers Competitive environment Technology environment Regulatory environment Macroeconomic environment Value chain analysis Automotive industry players IT industry players Automotive suppliers Transport service players Future industry trends Forecasting the autonomous car market beyond The overall impact of autonomous cars on society Data ownership and privacy protection strategies How will the rollout of self-driving cars affect the insurance industry? Self-driving cars and the Internet of Things New mobility services and business models for fully autonomous cars Glossary viii STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES

9 Index List of Figures Figure 1.1: SAE classification of levels of autonomy... 4 Figure 1.2: Performance and adoption barriers Figure 1.3: Car parc by region (World ) Figure 1.4: Passenger car parc density by region (World 2015) Figure 1.5: New car registration data (World ) Figure 1.6: Top 10 countries by new passenger car and light truck registration (2015) Figure 1.7: Top selling highway capable all-electric cars (World 2015) Figure 1.8: Registered highway capable BEVs and PHEVs (World 2015) Figure 1.9: Car sharing and mobility service companies (World Q4-2015) Figure 3.1: Sense-Plan-Act process Figure 3.2: Typical lidar 3D depiction integrated with a digital map Figure 3.3: Relationship between fields in computer science Figure 3.4: Conceptual structure of a simple neural network Figure 3.5: Graphical representation of underfitting and overfitting Figure 4.1: Top 20 passenger car manufacturers by revenues (World 2015) Figure 4.2: Top 6 luxury car manufacturers by new registrations (World 2015) Figure 4.3: Land Rover remote control app Figure 4.4: Drive Me project routes for autonomous mode Figure 4.5: Tesla Autopilot display Figure 4.6: F 015 Luxury in Motion interior design Figure 4.7: Audi RS 7 autonomous race car Figure 4.8: BMW VISION NEXT 100 concept car featuring heads-up display Figure 4.9: Chevrolet Tahoe modified vehicle at the DARPA Urban Challenge Figure 4.10: Ford Fusion Hybrid autonomous test car Figure 4.11: Honda Wander Stand concept vehicle Figure 4.12: The empty car convoy Figure 4.13: Nissan IDS Concept interior when in self-driving mode Figure 4.14: 2017 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid STRATEGIC M2M RESEARCH SERIES ix

10 Figure 4.15: Google autonomous prototype Figure 4.16: Volvo Cars XC90 equipped for Uber s autonomous ride-hailing program Figure 4.17: Baidu s autonomous BMW Gran Turismo test vehicle Figure 4.18: Nvidia Drive PX Figure 4.19: Velodyne HDL-64E LiDAR Figure 7.1: Traffic in Ho Chi Minh City Figure 8.1: Global passenger car and light truck sales by region ( ) Figure 8.2: Luxury car sales (World ) Figure 8.3: Autonomous car sales and active installed base by level (World ) Figure 8.4: Autonomous car SAE level 2 sales by region ( ) Figure 8.5: Autonomous car SAE level 3 sales by region ( ) Figure 8.6: Autonomous car SAE level 4 sales by region ( ) Figure 8.7: Technology adoption lifecycle model Figure 8.8: Long term outlook on passenger car and autonomous car sales Figure 8.9: Evolutionary pathway of Internet of Things use cases Figure 8.10: Potential paths to shared ownership of autonomous cars x STRATEGIC RESEARCH SERIES M2M RESEARCH SERIES