THE NEXT 25 YEARS: KEY CHALLENGES FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGY WAVE AND OLD GLOBAL PROBLEMS

Transcription

1 THE NEXT 25 YEARS: KEY CHALLENGES FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGY WAVE AND OLD GLOBAL PROBLEMS Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Platform Development in Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Gurneeta Vasudeva Singh IIASA YSSP: 4 Years and Beyond June 2, 217

2 Evolution of Alternative Fuel Vehicles China targets 5 mill EVs 22 Toyota introduces the fuel cell Mirai 215 Google tests driverless cars, Uber sets up R&D centers Traditional cars outlawed 25 7 Toyota introduces the mass produced hybrids 2 Nissan, Tesla, BMW introduce full electric

3 Key Questions for Business Strategy and Policy Predicting and preparing for the nature of technological change High technology companies FAAMG spread their tentacles (media, driverless cars, artificial intelligence, retail) New entrants (e.g. Tesla, Chinese venture capital) Industry convergence Platform development in competing/complementary technologies: How are companies choosing EVs, FCVs or both organizational, competitive, regulatory and other institutional drivers? Is platform development in EVs complementary or competing with FCVs increasing returns to scale?

4 Institutional Variations Across Technology Alliances and Networks CountrIes and industries are characterized by diverse institutional logics (e.g. cooperative vs. competitive, open vs. closed systems) Institutional contexts shape the logics of action and learning outcomes of network participants

5 BUSINESS POLICY, STRATEGY AND MODELING Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Platform Development in Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Gurneeta Vasudeva Singh IIASA YSSP: 4 Years and Beyond June 21, 217

6 Key Questions for Business Strategy and Policy I. How are companies choosing EVs, FCVs or both organizational, competitive, institutional drivers? II. Is platform development in BEVs and hybrid plug-ins complementary or competing with FCVs increasing returns to scale? III. How can we discern genuine commitments to alternative fuel vehicle technologies versus greenwashing?

7 How are companies making technological choices? Fuel cell Full electric Hybrid Natural gas Plug in hybrid Grand Total BMW Coda 1 1 Daimler Fiat 1 1 Fisker 1 1 Ford Geely 1 1 GM Honda Hyundai Kia Mazda 1 1 Mitsubishi 1 1 Nissan Subaru 1 1 Tesla 2 2 Toyota VW Grand Total FCEV rollout plans: GM 22 launch, Nissan 22; California on road estimates: 222: 43,6; 216: 25 stations, 217: 49 stations

8 Plug-in Hybrid Sales Count Plug in hybrid Sum of 21 Plug in hybrid Sum of 211 Plug in hybrid Sum of 212 Plug in hybrid Sum of 213 Plug in hybrid Sum of 214 Plug in hybrid Sum of 215 Plug in hybrid Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) BMW Daimler Fisker 1 2 ZEV Modified (CARB) Ford Geely GM Honda Hyundai Toyota VW BMW Daimler Fisker Ford Geely GM Honda Hyundai Toyota VW

9 Electric Vehicle Sales Count ZEV Modified (CARB) Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Sum of 21 Sum of 211 Sum of 212 Sum of 213 Sum of 214 Sum of 215 Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) BMW Coda 6 57 Daimler FCA Ford GM Honda Kia Mitsubishi Nissan Tesla Toyota VW BMW Coda Daimler FCA Ford GM Honda Kia Mitsubishi Nissan Tesla Toyota VW Linear (BMW) Linear (Nissan) Linear (Tesla)

10 Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales 9 ZEV Modified (CARB) Count Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell Sum of 213 Sum of 214 Sum of 215 Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) Toyota Hyundai Honda Toyota Hyundai Honda

11 How Ford and GM are reinventing their business Overcoming organizational inertia and competency traps: For GM the turning point came when tiny Tesla Motors, a Silicon Valley startup, announced in 26 that it would produce a speedy electric sports car powered by those same laptop batteries. "That tore it for me," says Lutz. "If some Silicon Valley start-up can solve this equation, no one is going to tell me anymore that it's unfeasible. At Ford, under Mr. Mulally, the message was clear, industry insiders say: Ford was to unite around a common goal, returning to the basics of auto making. He sought to compel senior executive to abandon years of infighting and fiefdombuilding and pull together to develop more appealing and fuel-efficient products. Mr. Fields, by contrast has broadened the company s mission, aiming to better position the company to take on new Silicon Valley rivals, such as Tesla Motors Inc. and Alphabet Inc. s Google, looking to redefine the car business.

12 R&D Trends in Hydrogen and Electric GM announced it has moved 5 fuel cell engineers and scientists from the laboratory side of the company into the chain of command that actually produces cars Count of All Hydrogen Patents Count of All Electric Patents

13 Intra-firm R&D competition 35 Even U.S. companies that only commercialize electric vehicles did more R&D in hydrogen Count of GM Electric Patents Count of GM Hydrogen Patents Count of Ford Hydrogen Patents Count of Ford Electric Patents

14 Intra-firm R&D competition Japanese companies do more R&D in hydrogen 35 3 Patent Counts Count of Toyota Hydrogen Count of Toyota Electric Count of Honda Hydrogen Count of Honda Electric

15 U.S. Electric Charging Stations Count of Open Year Others Count of Open Year Tesla

16 California Infrastructure Competition In order to support the early market development of fuel cell electric vehicles, it is important that clean transportation stakeholders in Washington experience the technology firsthand. John Zagaja, Senior Vice President of Engineering, Proton OnSite Count of Open Year Hydrogen California Count of Open Year Electric California

17 FCVs the other ZEV? Price Tax Credits Cost to Drive 1 Number of miles (EPA fueling estimates) Efficiency stations Range Refueling or Recharging time Horse power Time to 6 Drag Coeff. Plug in Hybrid Hybrid Fuel Cell Electric $27,1 (217 Toyota Prius Prime) $24,685 (217 Toyota Up to $4,5 in tax rebates $ Comb. MPGe; 54 Comb. MPG 182,878 (Public gas stations and charging stations) 167, Comb. (Public gas MPG stations) 64 miles miles Prius) N/A $4.34 $57,5 (217 Toyota Mirai) N/A $ MPGe miles $37,221 ( model average) Up to $7,5 $4 122 MPGe 15,464 (4,63 outlets) as of February 7, miles < 5.5 hours with a standard plug(11/12v ); >2 hours at a public charging station (24V) minutes refueling time 95 About 5 minutes refueling time hours avg. for 22/24V; 21 hours avg. for 11/12V second s* second s** second s second s N/A

18 Laws and Incentives: ZEV States State Hydrogen Plug in Hybrids Electric CA CT MA MD ME NJ NY OR RI VT 5 5 6

19 Scaling EV Infrastructure North American government and utilities proposals for $1.4 billion in EV charging infrastructure Volkswagen Group of America is investing $2 billion over the next 1 years in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure and awareness Chinese government targets 5 million EVs by 22, US, 3.3. million by 225, 1.5 million in CA Chinese venture capital backed EV startups like Faraday, Lucid